Conference Presentations by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
This study aims to explain how political parties' electoral strategy portfolios diversify; from c... more This study aims to explain how political parties' electoral strategy portfolios diversify; from clientelistic to programmatic. In this regard, key question includes: how socioeconomic differences among the electoral districts affect the organization and electoral strategy portfolios of party branches? Based on field research in Indonesia (Jakarta) concerning party-voter linkage, I argue that parties' access to state resources and voter demands affect party strategies. The research is based on three periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, and 2009-2014) of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS, Partai Keadilan Sejahterah) with a particular focus on party strategies in less-developed (North Jakarta) and more developed (South Jakarta) districts.
In the summer of 2013, a local environmental protest in Istanbul turned into high levels of prote... more In the summer of 2013, a local environmental protest in Istanbul turned into high levels of protest mobilization throughout Turkey. Although some grievance against the government was already in place among the opposition, high level of protest mobilization was unexpected. This case study researches the reasons of why a local protest turns into high level of protest mobilization, and argues that decreasing political opportunity structure led to high level of protest mobilization followed by the government’s choice of collective memory as a counter strategy; ‘coup attempt propaganda’ which is surprisingly welcomed by some opposition parties. While analyzing the gradual decrease of political opportunities, in this study, protest event analysis is made to see the sequence of events in detail. Two mainstream newspapers were reviewed systematically to analyze the protest actions from the beginning of the events 28.05.2013 until 16.11.2013 and 583 protest events were recorded. To support main argument, I used two researches, '#direngeziparki' survey of Bilgi University and 'Gezi Report' of KONDA research center, to analyze how decreasing political opportunity structure affected protesters, how society perceived the protests, and to what extent the government propaganda was effective.
This paper investigates the effects of neo-liberalism and electoral system on voter turnout in 20... more This paper investigates the effects of neo-liberalism and electoral system on voter turnout in 2009 Indonesian legislative election. With the spread of Asian Financial Crisis to Indonesia in 1997, a structural reform agreement was made with the International Money Fund (IMF). However, structural reform compelled the country to abandon developmental state model and embrace free-market policies. Although economic growth has been achieved significantly, the level of poverty is still problematic and income inequality has been increasing since the reform. At the same time, with the beginning of democratic elections in 1999, electoral system gradually shifted from party-centered to candidate-centered system. As a result, politicians have to rely more on their personal reputation rather than their party identities, which force them appeal to vote-buying and clientelistic incentives to cultivate personal vote, rather than providing programmatic policies regarding economic or social problems of the country. Considering both neo-liberalism and candidate-centered electoral system, this paper argues that while neo-liberal policies are unable to overcome poverty and lead to an increase in income inequality for the sake of economic growth, politicians take advantage of the system in the elections through clientelistic and vote-buying incentives, which results in higher voter turnout in poor provinces. By using the statistics of the socio-economic indicators of 2009 and 2012 from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik), and election results of 2009 from electoral commission of Indonesia (Komisi Pemilihan Umum), a multivariate regression analysis was made by observing all 33 provinces. The results support the argument and show that at province level, higher percentage of poverty and higher income inequality have positive effect on voter turnout.
Turkey and Indonesia share many similarities regarding society and politics as being both
highly... more Turkey and Indonesia share many similarities regarding society and politics as being both
highly Muslim populated, democratic, and secular countries. This research investigates the
electoral performance of Islamic parties in Indonesia and Turkey by applying Allen Hicken's
"theory of aggregation", and asks why Islamic party of Turkey - Justice and Development
Party - became successful whereas Islamic parties of Indonesia failed in the legislative
elections. This paper argues that Islamic Parties' success and failure is based on parties'
effective usage of aggregation incentives consist of vertical centralization (concentration of
power and resources within the party) and horizontal centralization (power within the
national government). This paper aims to make a contribution to studies related to Islamic
parties by investigating how aggregation incentives affect Islamic ideology of these parties
for electoral success. Another theoretical contribution is to show the electoral threshold as an
important factor affecting the theory of aggregation incentives. In addition, political
decentralization has negative effects on horizontal centralization in Indonesian case. To
support the argument, electoral performances of Islamic parties are observed in Indonesian
legislative elections between 1999 and 2009, and Turkish national elections between 1987
and 2011.
Research Articles by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
MÜLKİYE DERGİSİ, 2021
Güney Kore’de askeri diktatörlüğün 1987 yılında yıkılmasının ardından 33 yıl geçmiş olmasına rağm... more Güney Kore’de askeri diktatörlüğün 1987 yılında yıkılmasının ardından 33 yıl geçmiş olmasına rağmen siyasi partiler kurumsallaşmasını tamamlayamamıştır. Demokratik kurumlar başarılı bir şekilde inşa edilirken siyasi partiler örgütlenme, parti-içi demokrasi, parti-seçmen ilişkileri ve liderlik gibi konularda sıkıntı yaşamaktadır. Bu kapsamda, her ne kadar Güney Kore demokrasiye geçişte simge ülkelerden bir tanesi olarak kabul edilse de siyasi partiler ülkenin demokrasiye evrilmesinde en zayıf halkalardan biridir. Bu çalışma, Angelo Panebianco’nun parti kurumsallaşması teorisinin iki öğesinden (otonomi ve sistemlilik) faydalanarak, bu durumun nedenleri üzerindeki durmaktadır. Panebianco’ya göre, otonomi partinin sendikalar gibi dışsal kurumlarla olan ilişkisini tanımlar. Bu aktörler, sivil toplumdan meslek örgütlerine, sendikalardan sermayedarlara geniş bir kümeyi kapsamaktadır. Panebianco’ya göre, bir parti izleyeceği politikayı bu aktörlere göre şekillendirmiyor ve zımni de olsa bu aktörler üzerinde tahakküm kurabiliyorsa, kurumsallaşmıştır. Sistemlilik ise parti içi kurumsallaşmaya işaret eder. Homojen ve tutarlı bir yapı oluşturmak için partinin alt birimlerini kontrol edebildiği merkezi bürokrasiye sahip olması; taşra-merkez ilişkisinde parti içi demokrasiye uygun hiyerarşik bir yapı oluşturulması; tüm alt birimleri aynı şekilde örgütlenmesi; parti finansmanın düzenli ve çok çeşitli olması gerekmektedir. Güney Kore’de parti kurumsallaşması 3 Kim dönemi (1987-2004) ve 3 Kim sonrası dönem (2004-2018) olmak üzere iki dönemde incelenmektedir. Güney Kore siyasetinde, demokrasiye geçiş sürecinde partilerden ziyade liderlerin ön plana çıktığı görülmüştür. Özellikle demokrasiye geçiş sürecinin liderleri Kim Dae-jung, Kim Young-sam ve Kim Jong-pil’in siyasette artan popülaritesinden dolayı bu döneme ‘3 Kim dönemi’ denilmektedir. 3 Kim döneminde sivil toplum kuruluşlarının görünürlüğü ve siyasetteki etkisi artarken siyasi partiler söz konusu sivil toplum kuruluşlarından bağımsız hareket etmiş, kurumsallaşmanın otonomi boyutunda başarılı olmuşlardır. Liderler partileri üzerinde hâkimiyet kurmayı başarmış fakat örgütlenme, iç işleyiş, adaylık ve parti-içi demokrasi gibi (sistemlilik) kriterlerde sınıfta kalmıştır. 3 Kim sonrası dönemde ise sivil toplum kuruluşlarının etkisinin artması partilerin otonomilerini azaltırken örgütlenme ve parti-içi demokraside önemli gelişmeler yaşanmış, liderler güç kaybederken partilerin finansman ve üye yapısının yataylaşması sistemliliği arttırmıştır. Özetle, bu çalışmada mevcut literatürün analizinden ve kamuoyu yoklama verilerinden hareketle, ilk dönemde otonominin güçlü ama sistemliliğin zayıf olduğu,
ikinci dönemde ise sistemlilik güçlenirken otonominin zayıfladığı ifade edilmiştir.
Although 33 years have passed since the collapse of the military dictatorship in South Korea (1987), political parties are far from being institutionalized. While the democratic institutions have successfully been established in this period, political parties have remained exposed to the problems of organization, intra-party democracy, party-voter
linkage, and party leadership. This makes the political parties the weakest institution in South Korea’s transition to democracy. This paper aims to explain the reasons for this situation by adopting Angelo Panebianco’s party institutionalization framework which relies on autonomy and systemness. According to Panebianco, autonomy
refers to parties’ relations with external institutions such as civil society organizations and trade unions. Parties are autonomous as long as they act independently from these organizations. Systemness, on the other hand, refers to parties’ internal institutionalization such as the level of intra-party democracy, the type of party finance, and the party’s control over the organization. In this research, party institutionalization in South Korea is examined in two periods, namely the 3 Kim period (1987-2004)
and the post-3 Kim period. In South Korean politics, three party leaders, Kim Daejung, Kim Young-sam, and Kim Jong-pil, came into prominence during the transition to democracy which is also known as the 3 Kim period. In this period, parties were successful in getting out of the sphere of influence of external actors (autonomy). Also, party leaders were able to control their parties without interruption yet they failed to fulfill the criterion of systemness such as organization, candidate nomination, and intra-party democracy. In the post-Kim period, significant steps have been taken in the way of party institutionalization. First, the parties’ autonomy is confronted with the increasing influence of non-governmental organizations. The developments in party organization, the strengthening of intra-party democracy, the horizontalization of the finance and member structure, on the other hand, have made the systemness criterion more relevant. To wrap up, based on the overview of the state-of-art as well as the data acquired from the public surveys, this study argues that systemness was weak and autonomy was strong in the first period while systemness strengthened and autonomy weakened in the second period.
SAGE Open , 2021
The effects of the linkage and the leverage over countries that either go through a democratic tr... more The effects of the linkage and the leverage over countries that either go through a democratic transition or further advance on the democratization path have been widely discussed by comparative democratization scholars. Western leverage designates governments' level of vulnerability in the face of foreign pressure for democratization, while linkage is meant to be the intensity of the connections and the cross-border streams between a democratizing country and the Western world. It is generally acknowledged that the linkage is a more determinative factor than the leverage. On the contrary, the authoritarian shifts of many countries that took place during the first two decades of the 21st century challenged the optimistic and deterministic role assigned to linkage. Turkey is a noteworthy example in this regard since the intensity of its linkage to Europe could not compensate the negative effects of a declining leverage over Turkish democratization since 2006. The argument that linkage matters more than leverage does not apply to Turkey. The evolution of domestic political regimes in European Union candidate countries in parallel with their accession processes constitutes separate cases differing from one another. Turkey is not only a separate case for its part, but also a unique one.
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2020
Political parties rely heavily on clientelistic networks in Turkey. However, parties may change a... more Political parties rely heavily on clientelistic networks in Turkey. However, parties may change and pursue alternative strategies while appealing to voters. The goal of this study is to explain why political parties change their strategies from clientelistic to programmatic or vice versa. Therefore, the key question is: under what conditions do parties adopt a clientelistic strategy or a programmatic strategy? Based on field research in Istanbul, Turkey, concerning party-voter linkages, I argue that parties’ access to state resources affects the changes in party strategy. When a party is involved in a governing coalition, the party is more likely to pursue a clientelistic strategy; conversely, when a party becomes the opposition, it is more likely to pursue a programmatic strategy. In order to support my arguments, this research observes government (1991–1995) and opposition (2002–2015) periods of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi). In this context, the CHP’s electoral strategy and local organizations are observed in the more developed Kadıköy and less developed Esenler districts in Istanbul.
Books by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
TÜRKİYE’DE ENDONEZYA ÇALIŞMALARI - I, 2022
Turkiyede Kore Calismalari II, 2021
ASEAN as a Method: Re-centering Processes and Institutions in Contemporary Southeast Asian Regionalism, 2020
Among the founders (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand) of the Associa... more Among the founders (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Malaysia’s efforts in shaping the institution’s behavior is interesting because despite being a small state, it has been successful in influencing ASEAN members by making them adopt the neutrality principle and implement important agreements such as the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the initiative of the East Asian Economic Caucus (which was finalized as ASEAN+3). With these ASEAN-led organizations, Malaysia found an effective platform for developing relations with China and the United States, and created an opportunity for ASEAN members to discuss disputes at an institutional platform. This chapter aims to answer the question to what extent Malaysia’s foreign policy and domestic politics have influenced the development of ASEAN as a regional organization. Specifically, this chapter investigates the reasons behind Malaysia’s efforts and aims to explain Malaysia’s neutrality approach in the context of ASEAN.
Papers by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
ASEAN as a Method, 2020
Among the founders (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand) of the Associa... more Among the founders (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Malaysia’s efforts in shaping the institution’s behavior is interesting because despite being a small state, it has been successful in influencing ASEAN members by making them adopt the neutrality principle and implement important agreements such as the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the initiative of the East Asian Economic Caucus (which was finalized as ASEAN+3). With these ASEAN-led organizations, Malaysia found an effective platform for developing relations with China and the United States, and created an opportunity for ASEAN members to discuss disputes at an institutional platform. This chapter aims to answer the question to what extent Malaysia’s foreign policy and domestic politics have influenced the development of ASEAN as a regional organization. Specifically, this chapter investigates the reasons behind Malaysia’s efforts and aims to explain Malaysia’s neutrality approach in the context of ASEAN.
SAGE Open, 2021
The effects of the linkage and the leverage over countries that either go through a democratic tr... more The effects of the linkage and the leverage over countries that either go through a democratic transition or further advance on the democratization path have been widely discussed by comparative democratization scholars. Western leverage designates governments’ level of vulnerability in the face of foreign pressure for democratization, while linkage is meant to be the intensity of the connections and the cross-border streams between a democratizing country and the Western world. It is generally acknowledged that the linkage is a more determinative factor than the leverage. On the contrary, the authoritarian shifts of many countries that took place during the first two decades of the 21st century challenged the optimistic and deterministic role assigned to linkage. Turkey is a noteworthy example in this regard since the intensity of its linkage to Europe could not compensate the negative effects of a declining leverage over Turkish democratization since 2006. The argument that linkag...
Political parties rely heavily on clientelistic networks in Turkey. However, parties may change a... more Political parties rely heavily on clientelistic networks in Turkey. However, parties may change and pursue alternative strategies while appealing to voters. The goal of this study is to explain why political parties change their strategies from clientelistic to programmatic or vice versa. Therefore, the key question is: under what conditions do parties adopt a clientelistic strategy or a programmatic strategy? Based on field research in Istanbul, Turkey, concerning party-voter linkages, I argue that parties’ access to state resources affects the changes in party strategy. When a party is involved in a governing coalition, the party is more likely to pursue a clientelistic strategy; conversely, when a party becomes the opposition, it is more likely to pursue a programmatic strategy. In order to support my arguments, this research observes government (1991–1995) and opposition (2002–2015) periods of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi). In this context, the CHP...
Uploads
Conference Presentations by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
highly Muslim populated, democratic, and secular countries. This research investigates the
electoral performance of Islamic parties in Indonesia and Turkey by applying Allen Hicken's
"theory of aggregation", and asks why Islamic party of Turkey - Justice and Development
Party - became successful whereas Islamic parties of Indonesia failed in the legislative
elections. This paper argues that Islamic Parties' success and failure is based on parties'
effective usage of aggregation incentives consist of vertical centralization (concentration of
power and resources within the party) and horizontal centralization (power within the
national government). This paper aims to make a contribution to studies related to Islamic
parties by investigating how aggregation incentives affect Islamic ideology of these parties
for electoral success. Another theoretical contribution is to show the electoral threshold as an
important factor affecting the theory of aggregation incentives. In addition, political
decentralization has negative effects on horizontal centralization in Indonesian case. To
support the argument, electoral performances of Islamic parties are observed in Indonesian
legislative elections between 1999 and 2009, and Turkish national elections between 1987
and 2011.
Research Articles by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
ikinci dönemde ise sistemlilik güçlenirken otonominin zayıfladığı ifade edilmiştir.
Although 33 years have passed since the collapse of the military dictatorship in South Korea (1987), political parties are far from being institutionalized. While the democratic institutions have successfully been established in this period, political parties have remained exposed to the problems of organization, intra-party democracy, party-voter
linkage, and party leadership. This makes the political parties the weakest institution in South Korea’s transition to democracy. This paper aims to explain the reasons for this situation by adopting Angelo Panebianco’s party institutionalization framework which relies on autonomy and systemness. According to Panebianco, autonomy
refers to parties’ relations with external institutions such as civil society organizations and trade unions. Parties are autonomous as long as they act independently from these organizations. Systemness, on the other hand, refers to parties’ internal institutionalization such as the level of intra-party democracy, the type of party finance, and the party’s control over the organization. In this research, party institutionalization in South Korea is examined in two periods, namely the 3 Kim period (1987-2004)
and the post-3 Kim period. In South Korean politics, three party leaders, Kim Daejung, Kim Young-sam, and Kim Jong-pil, came into prominence during the transition to democracy which is also known as the 3 Kim period. In this period, parties were successful in getting out of the sphere of influence of external actors (autonomy). Also, party leaders were able to control their parties without interruption yet they failed to fulfill the criterion of systemness such as organization, candidate nomination, and intra-party democracy. In the post-Kim period, significant steps have been taken in the way of party institutionalization. First, the parties’ autonomy is confronted with the increasing influence of non-governmental organizations. The developments in party organization, the strengthening of intra-party democracy, the horizontalization of the finance and member structure, on the other hand, have made the systemness criterion more relevant. To wrap up, based on the overview of the state-of-art as well as the data acquired from the public surveys, this study argues that systemness was weak and autonomy was strong in the first period while systemness strengthened and autonomy weakened in the second period.
Books by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
Papers by Kerem Kılıçdaroğlu
highly Muslim populated, democratic, and secular countries. This research investigates the
electoral performance of Islamic parties in Indonesia and Turkey by applying Allen Hicken's
"theory of aggregation", and asks why Islamic party of Turkey - Justice and Development
Party - became successful whereas Islamic parties of Indonesia failed in the legislative
elections. This paper argues that Islamic Parties' success and failure is based on parties'
effective usage of aggregation incentives consist of vertical centralization (concentration of
power and resources within the party) and horizontal centralization (power within the
national government). This paper aims to make a contribution to studies related to Islamic
parties by investigating how aggregation incentives affect Islamic ideology of these parties
for electoral success. Another theoretical contribution is to show the electoral threshold as an
important factor affecting the theory of aggregation incentives. In addition, political
decentralization has negative effects on horizontal centralization in Indonesian case. To
support the argument, electoral performances of Islamic parties are observed in Indonesian
legislative elections between 1999 and 2009, and Turkish national elections between 1987
and 2011.
ikinci dönemde ise sistemlilik güçlenirken otonominin zayıfladığı ifade edilmiştir.
Although 33 years have passed since the collapse of the military dictatorship in South Korea (1987), political parties are far from being institutionalized. While the democratic institutions have successfully been established in this period, political parties have remained exposed to the problems of organization, intra-party democracy, party-voter
linkage, and party leadership. This makes the political parties the weakest institution in South Korea’s transition to democracy. This paper aims to explain the reasons for this situation by adopting Angelo Panebianco’s party institutionalization framework which relies on autonomy and systemness. According to Panebianco, autonomy
refers to parties’ relations with external institutions such as civil society organizations and trade unions. Parties are autonomous as long as they act independently from these organizations. Systemness, on the other hand, refers to parties’ internal institutionalization such as the level of intra-party democracy, the type of party finance, and the party’s control over the organization. In this research, party institutionalization in South Korea is examined in two periods, namely the 3 Kim period (1987-2004)
and the post-3 Kim period. In South Korean politics, three party leaders, Kim Daejung, Kim Young-sam, and Kim Jong-pil, came into prominence during the transition to democracy which is also known as the 3 Kim period. In this period, parties were successful in getting out of the sphere of influence of external actors (autonomy). Also, party leaders were able to control their parties without interruption yet they failed to fulfill the criterion of systemness such as organization, candidate nomination, and intra-party democracy. In the post-Kim period, significant steps have been taken in the way of party institutionalization. First, the parties’ autonomy is confronted with the increasing influence of non-governmental organizations. The developments in party organization, the strengthening of intra-party democracy, the horizontalization of the finance and member structure, on the other hand, have made the systemness criterion more relevant. To wrap up, based on the overview of the state-of-art as well as the data acquired from the public surveys, this study argues that systemness was weak and autonomy was strong in the first period while systemness strengthened and autonomy weakened in the second period.