PhD Candidate in Economics

Thomas Monk

London School of Economics

Labour Programme, Centre for Economic Performance

I am a PhD Candidate in Economics at the LSE, supervised by Professor Alan Manning, Professor Guy Michaels & Professor John Van Reenen.

I am a labour economist, with a primary interest in technological change and its effects on the structure of the labour market. My research creates & utilises large novel datasets, and I have interests in using frontier machine learning techniques to automate the digitisation of historical data. Two of these projects are open-access, details can be found below.

Questions, ideas or thoughts on collaboration? Get in touch at [email protected].

Research

Job Market Paper

Occupational Reinvention: Evidence from a century of task & technology data

Abstract: Technological change reshapes occupations by both substituting for and assisting workers, yet standard measures hold task content fixed and collapse these forces into a single index. We assemble an 80-year, task-level panel for U.S. occupations by digitising the historical Dictionary of Occupational Titles with a computer vision model and harmonising it with modern O*NET data. Using text embeddings, we map detailed task descriptions to patent texts to construct time-varying, occupation-level exposure to substitution- and assistance-intensive innovation. To avoid mechanical endogeneity from task reweighting, exposure is anchored in a predetermined “frozen” baseline of tasks and task weights. We combine these baseline exposures with differential growth across technology fields in a shift-share IV design to identify the causal effects of substitution- and assistance-intensive innovation on occupation-level employment and wages. The results imply that measuring technology without accounting for evolving task content systematically distorts our understanding of both the history and the future of work.

This project is kindly supported by grants funded by the LSE's Research Impact and Support Fund 2024, the Economic and Social Research Council, and the Centre for Economic Performance.

Work in Progress

Old Skills, New Skills

with Rui Costa, Christopher Pissarides, and Bertha Rohenkohl

Indirect Experience

with Livia Alfonsi and Gaia Dossi

Abstract: We study how an unprecedented shock affects individuals socially connected to those directly exposed. Using an original survey we designed and administered to migrants in the United States, we show that individuals from countries hit earlier by Covid-19 adopted preventive measures before U.S. mandates and cited events in their home countries as the main driver. Four months later, these differences persisted in non-mandated precautionary behaviors, but not in behaviors required by law. Respondents from earlier-hit countries also overestimated U.S. Covid-19 deaths, consistent with higher perceived risk. Taken together, these findings suggest that exposure to unprecedented shocks through social ties can generate persistent behavioral responses.

Working Papers

Occupational Skill Content and Technological Change

Abstract: Technological change events fundamentally change the type of tasks performed by human labour within occupations. We develop a predictive model, utilising machine learning techniques, and find that occupational skill intensity data can predict, to a high degree of accuracy, technological change event exposure, as measured by indices developed by Webb (2020). We link these predictions to skills data from a library of newspaper job vacancy adverts to understand how skill intensities have changed over time, and use this to predict historical occupational technological exposure. Change in occupational technological exposure, as predicted by changing skill intensities, is highly associated with important labour market outcomes.

Uncertain Health and Wealth Inequality Best Dissertation Prize, MSc Economics, UCL (2017)

Abstract: Precautionary saving is a key driver of wealth inequality within models of the Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari canon. However, models with savings rates calibrated solely to idiosyncratic income risk find it difficult to replicate the vast wealth inequality empirically observed in the United States. This paper looks at a potential source of increased precautionary savings — idiosyncratic medical expenses shocks. This paper: i. establishes an identification procedure for medical expenditure shocks across the entire life cycle, ii. finds that idiosyncratic shocks are very highly persistent, iii. establishes the extent to which these shocks contribute to wealth inequality through the effect on savings behaviour.

Public Opinion and Immigration

with Alan Manning

Abstract: Immigration in many high-income countries is often a fraught political issue. The share of migrants has been rising yet typically more people want lower than higher immigration, though views on the issue are often very polarised with strongly-held views on both sides. Given this, understanding public opinion on immigration is obviously important and there is a large and growing academic literature on the subject. These studies often investigate how attitudes vary with demographics among people in the same country at the same point in time. But it is also likely that attitudes respond to country-level macro variables like the level and mix of immigration and the general state of the economy. To investigate the influence of macro-level variables requires data on multiple countries and years so that there is enough variation in the variables of interest. This data is relatively rare. To address this, we introduce a novel high-dimensional dataset, harmonising data on the 28 EU countries from Eurobarometer surveys over the period 2002-2019, and investigate the influences of macro-level variables on attitudes towards immigration.

Public Datasets

Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) 1939-1991 In Progress

A novel dataset fully digitising all Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) editions published between 1939-1991. This dataset includes titles, descriptions and SOC codes at the occupation level, cross-walking across each edition. This dataset allows for understanding the evolution of occupational skill requirements within-occupation over time.

Harmonised Eurobarometer 2003-2019 Forthcoming

This dataset harmonises responses from the 28 EU countries from Eurobarometer surveys over the period 2002-2019. We use the Standard Eurobarometer survey series, conducted in the Spring and Autumn of each year in a repeated cross-section, with around 1000 respondents from each EU country. The Standard surveys ask a range of repeated trend questions alongside a selection of rotating modules and individual demographic details, which have previously been difficult to understand across time and countries.

Open Source

mcp-stata Python

A lightweight Model Context Protocol (MCP) server for Stata. Execute commands, inspect data, retrieve stored results (r()/e()), and view graphs in your chat interface. Built for economists who want to integrate LLM assistance into their Stata workflow.

stata-workbench VS Code

A VS Code extension that allows Stata code to be run directly from the editor, using mcp-stata as the backend. Download from Microsoft or Open VSX.

multe Python

A fast Python implementation of an MLE estimator of the multichoice logit model, as described in Ophem, H.V., Stam, P. and Praag, B.V., 1999. Multichoice logit: modeling incomplete preference rankings of classical concerts. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 17(1), pp.117-128. Developed for and used in Public Opinion and Immigration. Theoretical documentation.

Teaching

LSE Excellence in Education Award

School of Public Policy · 2022–2025

LSE Class Teacher Award

School of Public Policy · 2023–2025

LSE Class Teacher Award

Dept. of Economics · 2025

LSE Teaching Bonus Award

Dept. of Economics · 2021, 2023–2025

LSESU Teaching Award – Outstanding Teaching

Nomination · 2023

Graduate Student Evaluations (/5)

EC423 – Labour Economics

MSc Econometrics & Mathematical Economics / MSc Economics Teaching Fellow

Prof Guy Michaels & Dr Christiane Szerman

AT 25/26 4.8 WT 24/25 4.7 AT 24/25 4.6 WT 23/24 5.0 AT 23/24 4.9 LT 22/23 5.0 MT 22/23 5.0

PP455 – Quantitative Approaches and Policy Analysis – Econometrics

MPA & MPA Data Science Teaching Fellow

Dr Jeremiah Dittmar & Prof Mark Schankerman

→ Stata for Public Policy website

AT 25/26 4.8 WT 24/25 4.7 AT 24/25 4.8 WT 23/24 4.9 AT 23/24 4.8 LT 22/23 4.9 MT 22/23 4.9 LT 21/22 4.7 MT 21/22 4.7

Introduction to Data Science for Public Policy

MPA & MPA Data Science Course Convenor & Lecturer

→ Course website and teaching material

PP455E – Empirical Methods for Public Policy

Executive Master of Public Policy (EMPP) Teaching Fellow

Prof Daniel Sturm & Dr Gregory Fischer

PP408 – Introduction to Quantitative Methods for the MPA Programme

MPA & MPA Data Science Course Convenor & Lecturer

Undergraduate Student Evaluations (/5)

EC202 – Intermediate Macroeconomics

BSc Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant

Dr Kevin Sheedy

ST 21/22 4.8

EC102 – Introductory Macroeconomics

BSc Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant

Dr Canh Dang & Dr Antonio Mele

ST 21/22 4.8 ST 20/21 4.7

EC220 – Introduction to Econometrics

BSc Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant

Prof Steve Pischke, Prof Taisuke Otsu & Dr Marcia Schafgans

MT 20/21 4.7 LT 20/21 4.6

Presentations & Conferences

Workshop on Misperceptions, Mental Models and Polarization

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, University of Bonn · Bonn, Germany · 2026

Historical Labor Markets in Text: Computational and Historical Perspectives on Labor Market Evolution

Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz · Graz, Austria · 2026

Machine Learning in Economics Summer Institute

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business · Chicago, USA · 2025

Economic History Society Conference

University of Strathclyde Technology & Innovation Centre · Glasgow, UK · 2025