Papers by Joanna Sokolowska
Astrobiology
Conceptual frameworks are developed for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to prov... more Conceptual frameworks are developed for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to provide evidence for the presence of life in planned missions or observational studies. The focus is on intrinsic characteristics of biosignatures in space environments rather than on their detection, which depends on technology. Evaluation procedures are drawn from extensive studies in decision theory on related problems in business, engineering, medical fields, and the social arena. Three approaches are particularly useful. Two of them, Signal Detection Theory and Bayesian hypothesis testing, are based on probabilities. The third approach is based on utility theory. In all the frameworks, knowledge about a subject matter has to be translated into probabilities and/or utilities in a multistep process called elicitation. We present the first attempt to cover all steps, from acquiring knowledge about biosignatures to assigning probabilities or utilities to global quantities, such as false positives and false negatives. Since elicitation involves human judgment that is always prone to perceptual and cognitive biases, the relevant biases are discussed and illustrated in examples. We further discuss at which stage of elicitation human judgment should be involved to ensure the most reliable outcomes. An example, how evaluating biosignatures might be implemented, is given in the Supplementary Information.
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics
Decyzje, 2012
Celem prezentowanych badań było: (1) sprawdzenie, czy ocena i akceptacja ryzyka to dwa niezależne... more Celem prezentowanych badań było: (1) sprawdzenie, czy ocena i akceptacja ryzyka to dwa niezależne procesy psychologiczne oraz (2) jaki wpływ na oba procesy ma poziom aspiracji. Sprawdzano, czy oceny ryzyka są niezależne, a wybory zależne od aspiracji. W Eksperymencie 1, 72 pracownikom fi rmy high-tech prezentowano pakiety akcyjne. Poziom aspiracji, zdefi niowany jako procentowy zysk z inwestycji, był narzucony przez instrukcję. W Eksperymencie 2, 93 uczestnikom turniejów brydżowych prezentowano rozkłady kart oraz pary możliwych kontraktów, z których pierwszy dawał pewną niższą, a drugi niepewną wyższą wygraną. Poziom aspiracji, narzucany przez instrukcję, odnosił się do liczby punktów IMP w rozgrywce knock-out. W obu eksperymentach zastosowano schemat porównań międzygrupowych dla dwóch poziomów aspiracji. Respondenci oceniali ryzyko prezentowanych opcji i wybierali jedną z nich. Na podstawie uzyskanych wyników można stwierdzić, że oceny ryzyka były takie same, niezależnie od poziomu aspiracji, natomiast wybory respondentów były różne, przy różnym poziomie aspiracji. Jest to zgodne z tezą, że ocena i akceptacja ryzyka to dwa niezależne procesy psychologiczne.
Two experiments were carried out to investigate psychological accuracy of risky choice models rel... more Two experiments were carried out to investigate psychological accuracy of risky choice models related either to classical or bounded rationality assumption. In line with the former, individuals trade-off outcomes and probabilities and choose the option with the highest weighted sum. Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) represents such models. In contrast, in models based on bounded rationality assumption, such as Priority Heuristic (PH) or Maximization of Cumulated Probability of Winning (MCPW), there is neither trade-off between payoffs and probabilities nor complex information integration, since choice is based on dimension-wise comparisons. The latter models differ in emphasizing the significance of either the amount or the probability of loss. Since previous findings do not support either hierarchy Experiment 1, in which 208 respondents chose one of four 2-mixed-outcome options, was designed to verify relative importance of amount and probability of loss. In Experiment 2 the relative accuracy of compensatory models based on global evaluations and noncompensatory models based on dimension-wise comparisons was compared. The focus is on reasoning represented by certain classes of models rather than on distinguishing between specific models within a given class. Information search was registered with a modified version of Mouselab Web. Choice fraction and process tracing indices were analyzed. It was found that respondents made more dimension- than option-wise transitions. However, other indices such as the fraction of information searched across options as well as the ratio of searched information about pay-offs and probabilities do not support either model. The choice strategies used by a majority of respondents varied across situations. Keywords: compensatory and non-compensatory models, information search patterns
Appl Psychol Int Rev, 1999
ABSTRACT Juste aprés la transformation de l'économie polonaise sous contrǒle étatique en ... more ABSTRACT Juste aprés la transformation de l'économie polonaise sous contrǒle étatique en économie de marché, trois enquětes ont été successivement menées pour étudier les préférences socioéconomiques des Polonais.La structure factorielle des préférences socioéconomiques qui s'est dégagée de l'analyse regroupe des questions qui n'ont qu'un rapport superficiel. Ceci peut indiquer que les gens ou bien ne comprennent pas ou bien ne pretent pas attention aux relations économiques de causalité. On a trouvé un faible soutien en favour de l'économie de marché, faible soutien qui à cu tendance à décroǐtre les années suivantes. Ceci semble ětre cause par le fait que les inconvénients du système antérieur ont été rapidement oubliés, tandis que ceux rencontrés récemment se faisaient plus vifs et pénibles.Les préférences socioéconomiques des Polonais ont mis en évidence une forme d'organisation relativement stable au cours des trois années successives. Ceci peut s'expliquer par le fait que les enquětos ont été conduites dans une période de forte polarisation politique. Les préférences socioéconomiques se sont avérées ětre en rapport avec diverses variables démographiques et psychologiques. Généralement, les gens plus dynamiques et actifs économiquement ont laissé apparaǐtre un plus grand soutien en faveur de l'économie de marché que ceux qui étaient moins actifs économiquement.Just after the transformation of the Polish economy from state controlled to market-oriented, three surveys were carried out to study the socioeconomic preferences of Poles. The factor structure of socioeconomic preferences that emerged from the analysis groups together issues that are related superficially. This may indicate that people either do not understand or do not pay attention to causal economic relationships. Weak support was found for the market-oriented economy and it showed a tendency to decrease in the subsequent years. This seems to be caused by the fact that drawbacks of the previous system were quickly forgotten while the newly-experienced drawbacks became vivid and painful. Socioeconomic preferences of Poles displayed some organisation, which was relatively stable in the three subsequent years. This may be due to the fact that the surveys were conducted in the period of strong political polarisation. Socioeconomic preferences turned out to be related to various demographic and psychological variables. Generally, people who were more dynamic and economically more active revealed greater support for the market-oriented economy than those who were economically less active.
Polish Psychological Bulletin, 1993
Decyzje, 2010
Streszczenie: Celem badania było wykazanie, że ocena ryzyka zależy nie tylko od takich aspektów s... more Streszczenie: Celem badania było wykazanie, że ocena ryzyka zależy nie tylko od takich aspektów sytuacji ryzykownej, jak prawdopodobieństwa i wielkości wypłat pozytywnych i negatywnych, ale także od punktów odniesienia, np. status quo czy cel. Punkty odniesienia decydują o tym, na których aspektach sytuacji skupia się uwaga oceniającego. Temat analizowano w kontekście zapowiadanych wyborów do Sejmu. W Eksperymencie 1, 67 studentów psychologii i młodych informatyków oceniało ryzyko związane z wyborami dla 6 partii politycznych reprezentowanych w Sejmie. Ponieważ partie miały różne status quo i inne cele polityczne, to oczekiwano różnego wpływu aspektów pozytywnych (np. uzyskanie bezwzględnej większości sejmowej) i negatywnych (np. prawdopodobieństwo utraty mandatów) na ocenę ryzyka dla różnych partii. Eksperyment 2 to powtórzenie Eksperymentu 1 w innym czasie z udziałem młodych działaczy partii politycznych (PO i PiS). W eksperymentach nie stwierdzono związku między zwiększeniem lub zmniejszeniem liczby manadatów a oceną ryzyka. Zaobserwowano wyraźny związek między oceną ryzyka a prawdopodobieństwem utraty reprezentacji sejmowej (Eksp. 2). Związek ten nie występował jednak w przypadku ocen ryzyka dla partii, dla których respondenci nisko ocenili prawdopodobieństwo utraty reprezentacji (Eksp. 1). W przypadku tych partii oceny ryzyka były związane z szansami na realizację celów politycznych (np. uzyskanie absolutnej większości czy zwiększenie potencjału koalicyjnego). Słowa kluczowe: percepcja ryzyka, ocena ryzyka a punkty odniesienia, wkład pozytywnych i negatywnych aspektów w ocenę ryzyka.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1998
Two studies attempted to discriminate between a situationaleconomic and a cultural explanation fo... more Two studies attempted to discriminate between a situationaleconomic and a cultural explanation for the recently reported finding that Chinese from the People's Republic of China (PRC) are more risk-seeking than Americans. Both studies compared American and Chinese proverbs related to risk and risk-taking. The first study added Germany as a control group for its socioeconomic similarity to the United States but its closer resemblance to the PRC in its social safety-net and cultural collectivism. Members of each culture rated American, Chinese, and German riskrelated proverbs, respectively, on implied advice (to take or avoid risk) and applicability to financial or social risks. Results were consistent with the cultural explanation of national differences in risk taking: (a) Chinese and German proverbs were judged to provide more risk-seeking advice than American proverbs; (b) American proverbs were judged less applicable to risks in the social domain than Chinese and German proverbs; (c) regardless
Frontiers in Psychology, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has created a situation in which people have to choose between economic and... more The COVID-19 pandemic has created a situation in which people have to choose between economic and health values. This raises the question of what psychological mechanisms determine people's willingness to bear economic costs to protect health? To answer this question, we examined whether such willingness is better described by compensatory or lexicographic models of decision making in situations involving risk or uncertainty. We compared decisions regarding COVID-19 and occupational diseases to establish a pandemic-independent baseline and to determine whether the mechanisms behind the trade-offs are the same in both cases. Additionally, we tested whether people's willingness to accept economic costs is related to psychological factors such as fear, feeling of control, declared knowledge about the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions concerning the expected length of the pandemic, and perceived effectiveness of actions taken to fight the coronavirus. In total, 354 Polish participants from Prolific Academic took part in this study. The results were consistent with the view that decisions are made primarily to protect sacred values and are therefore not based on compensatory models. In line with this view, participants were sensitive neither to the risk vs. uncertainty manipulation nor to the perceived effectiveness of the lockdown. Instead, their behavior was congruent with lexicographic models in which the protection of health and in particular the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to be the most important dimension, and the single criterion to be used in decision making.
Frontiers in Psychology, 2017
The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI) and the Co... more The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI) and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) through checking their relation to the transitivity axiom. The second goal was to test the relation between decision strategies and cognitive style as well as the relation between decision strategies and the transitivity of preferences. The following characteristics of strategies were investigated: requirements for trade-offs, maximization vs. satisficing and option-wise vs. attribute-wise information processing. Respondents were given choices between two multi-attribute options. The options were designed so that the choice indicated which strategy was applied. Both the REI-R and the CRT were found to be good predictors of the transitivity of preferences. Respondents who applied compensatory strategies and the maximization criterion scored highly on the REI-R and in the CRT, whereas those who applied the satisficing rule scored highly on the REI-R but not in the CRT. Attribute-wise information processing was related to low scores in both measurements. Option-wise information processing led to a high transitivity of preferences.
Although risk and benefits of risky activities are positively correlated in real world, empirical... more Although risk and benefits of risky activities are positively correlated in real world, empirical results indicate that people perceive them as negatively correlated. The common explanation
is that confounding benefits and losses stems from affect. In this article, we address the issue that has not been clearly established in studies on the affect heuristic: to what extent
boundary conditions, such as judgments’ generality and expertise influence the presence of the inverse relation in judgments of hazards. These conditions were examined in four studies
in which respondents evaluated general or specific benefits and risks of “affect-rich” and “affect-poor” hazards (ranging from investments to applications of stem cell research). In
line with previous research, affect is defined as good or bad feelings integral to a stimulus.
In contrast to previous research, affect is considered as related both to personal feelings and to social controversies associated with a hazard. Expertise is related to personal knowledge
(laypersons vs. experts) as well as to objective knowledge (targets well vs. poorly known to science). The direct comparison of the input from personal and objective ignorance into the
inverse relation has not been investigated previously. It was found that affect invoked by a hazard guides general but not specific judgments of its benefits and risks. Technical expertise
helps to avoid simplified evaluations of consequences as long as they are well known to science. For new, poorly understood hazards (e.g., stem cell research), expertise does not
protect from the perception of the inverse relation between benefits and risks.
Two experiments were carried out to investigate psychological accuracy of risky choice models rel... more Two experiments were carried out to investigate psychological accuracy of risky choice models related either to classical or bounded rationality assumption. In line with the former, individuals trade-off outcomes and probabilities and choose the
option with the highest weighted sum. Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) represents such models. In contrast, in models based on bounded rationality assumption, such as
Priority Heuristic (PH) or Maximization of Cumulated Probability of Winning (MCPW), there is neither trade-off between payoffs and probabilities nor complex information integration, since choice is based on dimension-wise comparisons. The latter models differ in emphasizing the significance of either the amount or the
probability of loss.
Since previous findings do not support either hierarchy Experiment 1, in which 208 respondents chose one of four 2-mixed-outcome options, was designed to
verify relative importance of amount and probability of loss. In Experiment 2 the relative accuracy of compensatory models based on global evaluations and noncompensatory
models based on dimension-wise comparisons was compared. The focus is on reasoning represented by certain classes of models rather than on distinguishing between specific models within a given class. Information search was
registered with a modified version of Mouselab Web. Choice fraction and process tracing indices were analyzed.
It was found that respondents made more dimension- than option-wise transitions. However, other indices such as the fraction of information searched across
options as well as the ratio of searched information about pay-offs and probabilities do not support either model. The choice strategies used by a majority of respondents varied across situations.
Keywords: compensatory and non-compensatory models, information search patterns
The experiments discussed here are aimed at determining whether risk perception and risk acceptan... more The experiments discussed here are aimed at determining whether risk perception and risk acceptance are two distinct psychological processes. This study is motivated by the idea of a double-criterion model of choice. In particular, in line with risk-value (R-V) models, in which risk is treated as a primitive, it is tested whether risk is independent of aspirations and whether preferences depend on aspirations. In two experiments, 305 university students were presented with pairs of risky projects and were asked to compare their riskiness and select one. The aspiration level, defined as the target return on the project, was set through an explicit instruction. In Experiment 1, a within-subject design was applied, and thus aspirations were set at two different levels. In Experiment 2, with a between-subject design, two different aspiration levels were set for each group. The results indicate that risk ordering is insensitive to changes in aspirations, but preferences are sensitive to those changes. This supports distinctness of risk perception and risk acceptance. The findings are discussed in terms of the CPT and SP/A models and the R-V approach. It appears that double-criterion models provide better and psychologically sounder predictions of subjects' preferences.
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Papers by Joanna Sokolowska
is that confounding benefits and losses stems from affect. In this article, we address the issue that has not been clearly established in studies on the affect heuristic: to what extent
boundary conditions, such as judgments’ generality and expertise influence the presence of the inverse relation in judgments of hazards. These conditions were examined in four studies
in which respondents evaluated general or specific benefits and risks of “affect-rich” and “affect-poor” hazards (ranging from investments to applications of stem cell research). In
line with previous research, affect is defined as good or bad feelings integral to a stimulus.
In contrast to previous research, affect is considered as related both to personal feelings and to social controversies associated with a hazard. Expertise is related to personal knowledge
(laypersons vs. experts) as well as to objective knowledge (targets well vs. poorly known to science). The direct comparison of the input from personal and objective ignorance into the
inverse relation has not been investigated previously. It was found that affect invoked by a hazard guides general but not specific judgments of its benefits and risks. Technical expertise
helps to avoid simplified evaluations of consequences as long as they are well known to science. For new, poorly understood hazards (e.g., stem cell research), expertise does not
protect from the perception of the inverse relation between benefits and risks.
option with the highest weighted sum. Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) represents such models. In contrast, in models based on bounded rationality assumption, such as
Priority Heuristic (PH) or Maximization of Cumulated Probability of Winning (MCPW), there is neither trade-off between payoffs and probabilities nor complex information integration, since choice is based on dimension-wise comparisons. The latter models differ in emphasizing the significance of either the amount or the
probability of loss.
Since previous findings do not support either hierarchy Experiment 1, in which 208 respondents chose one of four 2-mixed-outcome options, was designed to
verify relative importance of amount and probability of loss. In Experiment 2 the relative accuracy of compensatory models based on global evaluations and noncompensatory
models based on dimension-wise comparisons was compared. The focus is on reasoning represented by certain classes of models rather than on distinguishing between specific models within a given class. Information search was
registered with a modified version of Mouselab Web. Choice fraction and process tracing indices were analyzed.
It was found that respondents made more dimension- than option-wise transitions. However, other indices such as the fraction of information searched across
options as well as the ratio of searched information about pay-offs and probabilities do not support either model. The choice strategies used by a majority of respondents varied across situations.
Keywords: compensatory and non-compensatory models, information search patterns
is that confounding benefits and losses stems from affect. In this article, we address the issue that has not been clearly established in studies on the affect heuristic: to what extent
boundary conditions, such as judgments’ generality and expertise influence the presence of the inverse relation in judgments of hazards. These conditions were examined in four studies
in which respondents evaluated general or specific benefits and risks of “affect-rich” and “affect-poor” hazards (ranging from investments to applications of stem cell research). In
line with previous research, affect is defined as good or bad feelings integral to a stimulus.
In contrast to previous research, affect is considered as related both to personal feelings and to social controversies associated with a hazard. Expertise is related to personal knowledge
(laypersons vs. experts) as well as to objective knowledge (targets well vs. poorly known to science). The direct comparison of the input from personal and objective ignorance into the
inverse relation has not been investigated previously. It was found that affect invoked by a hazard guides general but not specific judgments of its benefits and risks. Technical expertise
helps to avoid simplified evaluations of consequences as long as they are well known to science. For new, poorly understood hazards (e.g., stem cell research), expertise does not
protect from the perception of the inverse relation between benefits and risks.
option with the highest weighted sum. Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) represents such models. In contrast, in models based on bounded rationality assumption, such as
Priority Heuristic (PH) or Maximization of Cumulated Probability of Winning (MCPW), there is neither trade-off between payoffs and probabilities nor complex information integration, since choice is based on dimension-wise comparisons. The latter models differ in emphasizing the significance of either the amount or the
probability of loss.
Since previous findings do not support either hierarchy Experiment 1, in which 208 respondents chose one of four 2-mixed-outcome options, was designed to
verify relative importance of amount and probability of loss. In Experiment 2 the relative accuracy of compensatory models based on global evaluations and noncompensatory
models based on dimension-wise comparisons was compared. The focus is on reasoning represented by certain classes of models rather than on distinguishing between specific models within a given class. Information search was
registered with a modified version of Mouselab Web. Choice fraction and process tracing indices were analyzed.
It was found that respondents made more dimension- than option-wise transitions. However, other indices such as the fraction of information searched across
options as well as the ratio of searched information about pay-offs and probabilities do not support either model. The choice strategies used by a majority of respondents varied across situations.
Keywords: compensatory and non-compensatory models, information search patterns