Nutrition and Food Technology

ALBERT P. KUHON.
A Design Model of Crisis Management in an Agroindustry Enterprise.
Under the direction of IRAWADI JAMARAN, DJUMALI MANGUNWIJAYA, AMRIL AMAN, MARIMIN, dan YANDRA ARKEMAN.

In the industry, a crisis is often defined as a sudden big trouble threatening the achievement of the organization’s central goals- profits, growth and survival, or endangers its reputation. This research aims to design a crisis management model for agroindustry using an integrated expert system or knowledge based system, economics analysis and fuzzy logic. The model, CrismanSoft detects impacts and probabilities of internal crises, provides early warnings and recommendations to solve the crises.
This research is limited to the core crises within the agroindustry companies which related to the exploitation to change risks into profits. Core crises include the crisis caused by labor strikes, permits revocation, and shortages of raw materials, which happen because of technological failures, confrontation or conflicts, malevolence or terror, managerial failures and other threats to the company. The scope of this research is internal crises in an agroindustry caused by raw material and product, technological, social or financial failures.
The application of simulation in crises management research and development is very limited. We integrate the acquired expert’s knowledge, database, and data processing using fuzzy rule-based decision making, economics and financial analysis to engineer CrismanSoft which detects the impacts and probability of crises, and provides the recommendations to solve the crises as well.
The validated and verified CrismanSoft is a model offering early warning, predicting impact and probability of the crises and presenting the solution alternatives for the crises. CrismanSoft consistently represents the experts in crises management in starch industry during the analysis as well as in recommending the solution alternatives. The model plots the result on the Fink’s crises barometer diagram (Fink, 1986).
In the inplementation using data (January 2000-Desember 2006) from a starch industry in East Lampung,  CrimanSoft predicts that the company is safe enough in February 2007, with the index of the Comprehensive Crises Impact at 2.9 (in the range of 1-10 scale) and the probability of having crises at 32 percent.



Key words: crisis management, agroindustry, decision support system (DSS), early warning, expert system, fuzzy

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