Stephen Witt

University of Surrey, School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Emeritus

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Emeritus Professor of Tourism Forecasting in School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at University of Surrey, UK. Major research interests are Econometric Modelling of International Tourism Demand

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Papers by Stephen Witt

Sustainable tourism development in Wales

Tourism Management, Dec 1, 1993

ABSTRACT The concept of sustainable development is introduced and its implications for tourism ar... more ABSTRACT The concept of sustainable development is introduced and its implications for tourism are discussed. The importance of appropriate policies and partnerships is highlighted through the role of the Wales Tourist Board. Three case studies are then presented with a view to illustrating how sustainable tourism development has been applied successfully in practice within the Principality of Wales.

The Effects of Health Warnings and Advertising on the Demand for Cigarettes

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Feb 1, 1981

* This two-year limited duration hypothesis was also compared empirically with the main previousl... more * This two-year limited duration hypothesis was also compared empirically with the main previously adopted health scare hypothesis (see, for example, Pet0 (1974)). The latter asserts that each health scare results in a once-and-for-all drop in the consumption of cigarettes (represented by zero/one dummy variables), but that the effects of

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Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models

Omega, Dec 1, 1998

Industrial production data series are volatile and often also cyclical. Hence, univariate time se... more Industrial production data series are volatile and often also cyclical. Hence, univariate time series models which allow for these features are expected to generate relatively accurate forecasts of industrial production. A particular class of unobservable components models Ð structural time series models Ð is used to generate forecasts of Austrian and German industrial production. A widely applied ARIMA model is used as a baseline for comparison. The empirical results show that the basic structural model generates more accurate forecasts than the ARIMA model when accuracy is measured in terms of size of error or directional change; and that the basic structural model forecasts better than the structural model with a cyclical component included on the basis of numerical measures, and tracking error for month-to-month changes.

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Forecasting Cigarette Consumption: The Causal Model Approach

International Journal of Social Economics, Mar 1, 1983

The “causal model” approach to business forecasting attempts to discover, mainly on the basis of ... more The “causal model” approach to business forecasting attempts to discover, mainly on the basis of economic knowledge, those variables which appear to have influenced the forecast variable in the past, and then estimates by econometric methods the quantitative relationship between the causal and forecast variables. Future values of the forecast variable are then obtained by using forecasts of the causal variables in conjunction with the estimated relationship.

Forecastin Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data

Journal of Travel Research, Jul 1, 1992

Domestic tourism demand is less susceptible than international tourism demand to external factors... more Domestic tourism demand is less susceptible than international tourism demand to external factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and international political events, and therefore is likely to be less volatile. Hence, the accuracy rankings obtained for various forecasting techniques when applied to international tourism data may no longer hold when the techniques are applied to domestic tourism data. This study illustrates that the superior ity of the "no change" extrapolation model in the context of international tourism forecast ing does not carry over to the domestic tourism forecasting case. Using data on Las Vegas visitor arrivals, it is shown that exponential smoothing generates forecasts with lower error magnitudes than "no change."

Mega-events and mega-attractions

Tourism Management, Mar 1, 1988

... Major tourist events can yield political and econo mic benefits for a region through increase... more

Tourism demand forecasting models

Tourism Management, Sep 1, 1987

ABSTRACT

Allocating tourism resources

Modelling forecasting techniques

Tourism Management, Mar 1, 1988

ABSTRACT Stephen F. Witt, Head of the Tourism Studies Unit at the University of Bradford Manageme... more

Automation in the hospitality industry

Reviving spa tourism — the AIEST congress

Tourism Management, Mar 1, 1990

ABSTRACT Stephen F. Witt, Lewis Professor of Tourism Studies at the University College of Swansea... more ABSTRACT Stephen F. Witt, Lewis Professor of Tourism Studies at the University College of Swansea, UK, reports on the 39th Congress of the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism (AIEST), Budapest, Hungary, 27 August–September 1989 — ‘From Traditional Spa Tourism to Modern Forms of Health Tourism’.

Stock Market Prices and Sector Activity

Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Jun 1, 1980

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Practical financial management

B. Blackwell eBooks, 1988

Introduction 1 Project and Product Decisions 2 Merger Decisions 3 Working Capital Management 4 Po... more Introduction 1 Project and Product Decisions 2 Merger Decisions 3 Working Capital Management 4 Portfolio Management 5 Capital Structure Decisions 6 Dividend Decisions 7 Leasing Decisions 8 Combining Investment and Financing Decisions 9 International Financial Management 10 Profit Planning and Control 11 Cash Planning and Control 12 Ratio Analysis References Index

A quantitative approach to stakeholder interests

Managerial and Decision Economics, Jun 1, 1982

In an age when the role, behavionr and performance of the 6nn are under greater scrutiny than eve... more In an age when the role, behavionr and performance of the 6nn are under greater scrutiny than ever before, it is important to pursue quantitative empirical research in the area of soaal auditing. Using data relating to one particular company, the various inputs and outputs attrililutable to the firm's different stakeholders, (shareholders, employees, consumers and the community) are examined and corresponding rates of return calculated. Considerable methodological and data problems arise and consequently the results need careful interpretation.

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International Portfolio Diversification

Managerial Finance, Feb 1, 1978

ABSTRACT

Forecasting international tourist flows

Annals of Tourism Research, 1994

Previous research suggests that the "no change" model is relatively accurate when annum data are ... more Previous research suggests that the "no change" model is relatively accurate when annum data are used to forecast international tourism demand, whereas more complex models are relatively accurate when seasonal data are used to forecast domestic tourism demand. The difference in accuracy rankings could be due to the international versus domestic dimension of the data or the difference in data frequency. This study demonstrates that the results obtained for international tourism using annum data also hold for seasonal data, so the previously obtained difference in accuracy rankings appears to be attributable to the use of international as opposed to domestic tourism demand data. Keywords: time series forecasting, forecast accuracy, international versus domestic tourism, quarterly versus annum data. R~sum~: Pr6visions de tourisme international. Les 6tudes prdc6dentes laissent entendre que le module "pas de changement" est relativement exact quand des donn6es annuelles sont utilisdes pour pr6voir la demande en tourisme international, alors que des modules plus complexes sont relativement exacts quand des donn6es saisonnibres sont utilis6es pour pr6voir la demande en tourisme national. La diff6rence pourrait ~tre due ~ la dimension des donn6es (internationale ou nationale), ou A la frdquence des donn6es. La pr6sente 6rude d6montre que les r6sultats obtenus pour le tourisme international en utilisant des donn6es annuelles sont aussi valables que les donn6es saisonnibres. La diff6rence obtenue pr6c6demment entre les ordres d'exactitude semble ~tre due A l'utilisation de donn6es internationales plut6t que nationales, en ce qui concerne la demande touristique. Mots-cl~s: pr6visions de s6ries temporelles, exactitude de pr6vision, demande internationale en tourisme contre demande nationale en tourisme, donn6es trimestrielles contre donn6es annuelles.

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Accuracy of econometric forecasts of tourism

Annals of Tourism Research, 1989

Many papers present estimated econometric models of international tourism demand. Their authors o... more Many papers present estimated econometric models of international tourism demand. Their authors often suggest that these may be used for short-term forecasting, but actual forecasts are rarely provided. This paper presents the results of a study in which the forecasting accuracy of several quantitative techniques is compared. Statistically significant differences in accuracy are identified using the ANOVA and Scheffk tests. Several of the simple methods produce more accurate forecasts than econometrics; this finding is supported by an examination of the accuracy of commercially available econometric forecasts of tourism, where the naive "no change" model forecasts more accurately in 70% of cases. Keywords: forecasting international tourism demand, evaluation of forecasting accuracy, econometric models, time series models, ANOVA, Scheff.6 test.

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The tourism environment

Practical Business Forecasting

Journal of the Operational Research Society, May 1, 1987

... Book Selection. Journal of the Operational Research Society (1987) 38, 465466. doi:10.1057/j... more

Recent development in Eastern European tourism

Until recently many of the Eastern European governments imposed stringent restrictions on inbound... more Until recently many of the Eastern European governments imposed stringent restrictions on inbound and outbound international tourism. The radical political changes which have taken place since 1989, resulting in the collapse of the communist system throughout Eastern Europe, have, however, now opened up the area for international tourism. Data on former East Germany are presented to demonstrate the potential magnitudes of the impacts of the imposition/removal of government-imposed restrictions on tourist flows. The sizes of the inbound tourism markets are shown for the former Soviet bloc countries, and comparisons are made with corresponding Western European destinations in order to provide a yardstick of progress in tourism development. Finally, recommendations are made as to how to overcome the problems faced by Eastern Europe as a tourist destination area.

Sustainable tourism development in Wales

Tourism Management, Dec 1, 1993