Papers by Mårten Lagergren
Social science & medicine (1982), 2004
The article introduces a method that may be used to estimate how demographic changes may affect f... more The article introduces a method that may be used to estimate how demographic changes may affect future demand for inpatient/outpatient health care. The method is useful in order to refine estimation of demographic influence on demand in the process of health human resources planning. Empirical evidence focuses on the connection between health care costs and remaining years of life. We estimate the demographically determined rise in inpatient/outpatient health care demand in Sweden in the period 2000-2030. The increase arrived at, by means of our method, is circa 37% lower than estimates done with a simple demographical extrapolation, which does not take the decreasing mortality pattern into account.
European Journal of Ageing, 2009
We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population ... more We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population may affect future prevalence of severe ill-health among older people in Sweden. Previous research has indicated that the number of older people, given educational differentials in mortality and expected changes in educational composition during the next decades, may increase more than expected following official population projections
For the purpose of studying the consequences of the ageing of the Swedish population a group of s... more For the purpose of studying the consequences of the ageing of the Swedish population a group of scientists have enlarged the microsimulation model SESIM - originally developed at the Swedish Ministry of Finance - with modules that simulate health status, take up of sickness benefits, retirement, the utilization of health care and social care and the dynamics of the income
Hallym International Journal of Aging, 2009
European Journal of Ageing, 2008
Statistics Sweden has interviewed representative samples of the population annually since 1980. T... more Statistics Sweden has interviewed representative samples of the population annually since 1980. This study looks at ages 65–84 (n ≈ 3,000 per year) and presents prevalence rates for functional ability (walking and running ability, vision and hearing, and disability) for different age groups and for men and women. Prevalence rates of functional problems increase with age, for all indicators and for men
European Journal of Ageing, 2009
We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population ... more We investigate how expected changes in the educational level composition of the older population may affect future prevalence of severe ill-health among older people in Sweden. Previous research has indicated that the number of older people, given educational differentials in mortality and expected changes in educational composition during the next decades, may increase more than expected following official population projections
European journal of ageing, 2013
The female advantage in life expectancy (LE) is found worldwide, despite differences in living co... more The female advantage in life expectancy (LE) is found worldwide, despite differences in living conditions, the status of women and other factors. However, this advantage has decreased in recent years in low-mortality countries. Few researchers have looked at the gender gap in LE in old age (age 65) in a longer historical perspective. Have women always had an advantage in LE at old age and do different countries share the same trends? Life expectancy data for 17 countries were assessed from Human Mortality Database from 1751 to 2007. Since most of the changes in LE taking place today are driven by reductions of old age mortality the gender difference in LE was calculated at age 65. Most low-mortality countries show the same historical trend, a rise and fall of women's advantage in LE at age 65. Three phases that all but two countries passed through were discerned. After a long phase with a female advantage in LE at 65 of <1 year, the gender gap increased significantly during t...
European journal of public health, Jan 27, 2015
Living alone is common among elderly people in Western countries, and studies on its relationship... more Living alone is common among elderly people in Western countries, and studies on its relationship with institutionalization and all-cause mortality have shown inconsistent results. We investigated that the impact of living alone on institutionalization and mortality in a population-based cohort of elderly people. Data originate from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care-Kungsholmen. Participants aged ≥66 years and living at home (n = 2404) at baseline underwent interviews and clinical examination. Data on living arrangements were collected in interviews. All participants were followed for 6 years; survival status and admission into institutions were tracked continuously through administrative registers from 2001 to 2007. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazard models, competing risk regressions and Laplace regressions with adjustment for potential confounders. Of the 2404 participants, 1464 (60.9%) lived alone at baseline. During the follow-up, 711 (29.6%) participan...
Scund J Soc Welture 1098: I: [340][341][342][343][344][345][346][347][348][349] variations in dep... more Scund J Soc Welture 1098: I: [340][341][342][343][344][345][346][347][348][349] variations in dependency or other factors of importance for the allotment decision. A minor part of these differences was connected to the different background and experience of the assessing person.
International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 2007
Background The aging of the population has become a worldwide phenomenon. This leads to increased... more Background The aging of the population has become a worldwide phenomenon. This leads to increased demand for services and with limited resources it is important to find a way to estimate how resources can be match to those with greatest need. Aims To analyse time use and costs in institutional care in relation to different levels of cognitive and functional capacity for elderly persons. Methods The population consisted of all institutionalised inhabitants, 75 þ years, living in a rural community (n¼176). They were clinically examined by physicians and interviewed by nurses. Staff and informal care-giving time was examined with the RUD (Resource Utilization in Dementia) instrument. Results Tobit regression analyses showed that having dementia increased the amount of ADL care time with 0.9 h when compared to those not having dementia, whereas each loss of an ADL function (0-6) added 0.6 h of ADL care time. Analysing the total care time use, the presence of dementia added more than 9 h, while each loss of one ADL function added 2.9 h. There were some informal care contributions, however with no correlation to severity in dependency. The estimated cost for institutional care increased with more than 85% for people being dependent in 5-6 ADL activities compared to persons with no functional dependency, and with 30% for persons with dementia compared to the non-demented. Conclusion There is a variation in time use in institutional settings due to differences in ADL dependency but also whether dementia is present or not. This variation has implications for costs of institutional care.
Health and Social Care in the Community, 2005
Given the cutbacks which have been carried out in the Swedish welfare state despite the unchanged... more Given the cutbacks which have been carried out in the Swedish welfare state despite the unchanged official policy of allocation of home help services according to needs, it is essential to evaluate the factors which guide the allocation of home help today. Whereas numerous studies have identified factors which predict entry into the home help system, the present paper concentrates on predictors of the amount of home help amongst those allocated assistance. Data were obtained from the population-based care and services section of the 2002 Swedish National Study of Aging and Care-Kungsholmen (SNAC-K). All home help recipients (&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; or = 65 years of age) living in an inner city district of Stockholm (Kungsholmen) were analysed with ordinary least squares regressions to identify predictors of the number of hours of home help (n = 943). Need indicators, i.e. dependency in activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental ADLs (IADLs), and cognitive impairment (Berger scale) were the strongest predictors of more hours of home help. The addition of sociodemographic (i.e. age, gender and income), environmental (i.e. informal care, housing adaptations and housing accessibility) and structural (i.e. variations in allocation decisions between one care manager and another) factors contributed only marginally to the explained variance. Hours of help entitlement increased slightly with greater age. Co-residing individuals were allocated significantly fewer home help hours than those living alone. Income and regular access to informal care were not significant predictors. The fact that services are provided according to need criteria does not necessarily mean that the provided services are adequate to meet needs. On the macro level, social policy decisions and available economic and manpower resources determine the allotment of municipal home help. However, this study in an urban sample suggests that, within the available resources, the amount of home help allocated is guided mainly by need indicators amongst those given assistance.
Aging Clinical and Experimental Research, 2004
A large, national, long-term, longitudinal, multi-purpose study has been launched in Sweden--the ... more A large, national, long-term, longitudinal, multi-purpose study has been launched in Sweden--the Swedish National study on Aging and Care (SNAC). The study involves four research centers collecting data in four different areas of Sweden. The study consists of two parts: the population part and the care and services part. In the population part, a large, representative panel of elders in different age cohorts is followed over time to record and describe the aging process from different aspects. In the care and services part, a systematic, longitudinal, individually-based collection of data is performed concerning provision of care and services together with functional ability, specific health care problems, and living conditions of the recipients living in the area. The data collection in the population part of the SNAC is not yet completed. In the present article, some preliminary results are reported from the care and services part. These pertain to comparisons between the participating areas with respect to the prevalence of disability among those receiving care and social services in their ordinary homes and those receiving care in special accommodation. A comparison is also presented with regard to the amount of home help provided to subjects with a given disability. This project has several advantages. It is expected to generate a rich data base relevant for future research on aging and care and to have a direct impact on the future Swedish system of care and services for the elderly.
Hallym International Journal of Aging, 2010
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Papers by Mårten Lagergren