... joining the US Army War College! It has been an honor and a privilege to work with the faculty here in the Intelligence Studies Department at Mercyhurst over the last 16 years. Having the opportunity to help build a world class program is an experience I will never forget. As important as my colleagues, however, are the extraordinary students I have had the pleasure to teach and work with. Whether we were sweating in the halls of the old Wayne Street building or livin' large in our fancy, new digs in the Center for Academic Engagement, getting to work with really smart, super dedicated students was probably the best thing about the job. Watching them continue to grow and succeed as alumni is even more rewarding. I am convinced that, one day, the DNI will almost certainly be a Mercyhurst alum (Several Directors of Strategic Intelligence for some Fortune 500 companies already are). As much as I am sorry to leave Mercyhurst, I am very excited about my next position as Professor Of Strategic Futures at the War College. There are few missions as important as developing strategic leaders and ideas for the US Army and I am proud to be part of the effort. I expect to be out of my office here by the end of the month, so, if you have any last minute business to attend to, please reach out soon. After the end of the month, the best way to reach me until I get to Carlisle in July is via gmail (kris dot wheaton at gmail dot com). Once I have new contact info, I will post it. I fully expect to continue to publish new thoughts, articles, and anything interesting I run across here on Sources and Methods. In fact, I expect to be able to write more often. Stay tuned! It's about to get (more) interesting...
One of the top complaints I hear from analysts is that they do not get enough exposure to new analytic methodologies. While the pace of technology and information collection has done nothing but accelerate, analysts oftentimes seem to be stuck in a time warp - using the same old methods in much the same old ways. The Mercyhurst Chapter of the Society of Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) is doing something about that this Spring!
I just received a note from one of the sharper crayons that has emerged from the Mercyhurst Intel Studies box - Spencer Vuksic. Spencer, a truly gifted analyst and Russian linguist currently seeking his masters in International Studies from Johns Hopkins, has, along with a fellow Mercyhurst alum Graham Westbrook, started a new project - Leksika - to provide open source intelligence analysis on all things Russian and Eurasian. According to Spencer, "Leksika’s value
proposition is in the application of intelligence analysis to political,
social, and economic shifts in the region in opposition to the largely
polarized reporting from both the West and Russia." Just in the last month they have published short, easy to read but highly informative pieces covering such diverse topics as Russia's partnerships with Serbia and Latvia, the current situation in Crimea, Israeli and Russian relations and Poland's geopolitical positioning. Earlier posts have reached even more broadly including a three part series on Russia's cyber strategy. One of the most interesting and FREE features of the site is their "ReapReport". Here they do a side by side comparison of the top news stories coming out of western and Russian media. More importantly, they add a highly useful "What to Watch" blurb in order to highlight upcoming events of interest. While clearly still in the start-up stage, Leksika is already quite good and has the potential to be a one-stop shop for unbiased analysis of Russia and Eurasia. Recommend you check it out and take advantage of the free subscriptions!
Tom Ridge, Former PA Governor and first Secretary of Homeland Security, speaks at the opening of the School of Intelligence Studies and Information Sciences
Today, Mercyhurst University announced that the Department of Intelligence Studies would be merged with the Department of Math and Computer Science and the Department of Communications to form the seventh school within the University: The Tom Ridge School of Intelligence Studies and Information Sciences.
Named after former Pennsylvania governor and first Secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge, the new school takes its place among more traditional schools such as the School of Social Sciences and the School of Business...
(Sounds like a damn press release. If your readers wanted that, they should go here. You should give them a feel for what this really means...)
This is a big deal. A really big deal.
In the first place, there is no other University in the country (perhaps in the world) that has a school dedicated to a vision of Intelligence Studies as an applied discipline, that teaches students how to get intelligence done and not just how to talk about it.
Secondly, it is going to allow us to grow our programs exponentially. First up is a new and complementary masters degree that will focus on data analytics - so-called "big data". My own hope is that we will soon begin to offer a doctorate - but not a PhD - in Applied Intelligence. I don't know what the new Dean of the School, Dr. Jim Breckenridge, wants it to look like, but I want it to be a professional doctorate, like an MD or a JD, that will focus not only on intelligence analysis but also on the special challenges of leading and managing the intelligence enterprise.
Third, it validates the vision of Bob Heibel, the founder of the Mercyhurst program. Twenty-two years ago, long before 911, before even the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, Bob had the radical idea that academia could do a pretty good job educating the next generation of intelligence analysts. Almost 1000 students have graduated from our residential, online degree, or certificate programs since then. These alumni are today employed throughout the national security, business and law enforcement intelligence communities.
Governor Ridge said today that the nation owes a debt of gratitude to Bob for what he has contributed to the safety and security of the US and, through our international students, of the world. It is a testament to what one person can do when he really believes in something.
Currently, Mercyhurst University offers a Master of Science in Applied Intelligence. There is, however, a growing and persistent demand for intelligence professionals skilled in data science and "big data" analytics. But what should we include in that degree? What courses? What kinds of skills do intelligence focused companies, organizations and agencies want and need? To that end, we developed a survey to gauge the scope of organizations employing data science/analytics professionals, in addition to desired knowledge, skills, and abilities for professionals in this field. You can help us out by taking this short, 10 question survey now. We will share the results here when available!
It was 1994. I had just been sent to the Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia (FYROM to everyone in the government at the time and Macedonia to all the Macedonians) by my new boss, a one-star general by the name of Michael Hayden. Macedonia had just declared its independence and the US had deployed a handful of soldiers in isolated outposts up and down the Serb-Macedonian border. They were part of a UN mission to lessen some dangerous tensions brewing between the new Macedonian state and Serbia. The Macedonians called us "saviors." The US soldiers, in their highly visible outposts and facing a robustly armed and equipped Serb army, had another name for themselves - "speed bumps." I was the liaison between the US diplomatic mission (we didn't have an embassy there yet) and the US European Command. What this meant in practice was that I had a beat up old rental car and lots of freedom to go where I thought I needed to go and see what I thought I needed to see. It was great. One day, I was driving northeast of Kumanovo (see the map). This area had a large concentration of Serbs, Serbs who had been cut off from Serbia and from their extended families who (now) lived right across the border. Like everything in the Balkans, this one wasn't easy but it also wasn't out of control yet.
GPS was still a couple of years away and I was finding my way around the area the old fashioned way - with a map. The only maps we had were 1:50,000 scale maps that had actually been given to the US by the former Yugoslavia (before the break up) and local, highly inaccurate, tourist maps. I say I was finding my way around the area but actually I was just plain lost. Not so lost I had no idea where I was, but lost enough to feel like I had to pull over and talk to someone. My Serbian was good enough in those days to communicate but my accent marked me hopelessly as an American.
The locals I spoke with were none too happy to see me and one made a point of letting me see the shotgun he was carrying. Pointedly, they asked (demanded, really) to know what I was doing there. Well...I wasn't doing anything. I was just driving around. I didn't know if anything was going to happen on the border but if it did, I didn't want to have to describe what it looked like from a desk in Skopje. I wanted to have seen the terrain before it became famous. But there was no telling that to my new-found "friends", though. An American with passable Serbian running around in civilian clothes and a rental car just had to be a spy, didn't he? So I said the first thing that came into my head: "I'm here to see the frescoes." Because I had excellent instruction in early Christian and Byzantine art while attending Florida State University for my masters degree, I knew that was actually a pretty safe answer anywhere in the Balkans. You are never too far away from a stunningly beautiful Byzantine era church usually decorated with frescoes or mosaics from the 1100's or earlier. My escorts may have thought the same thing because they made sure I got to the church (less out of courtesy and more as a way of testing me). It was not until the local priest and I became involved in a rather lengthy discussion of the Passion Cycle depicted on the walls of the nave, pictures of which I had also seen repeatedly in class from a wide variety of Byzantine churches, that these nervous Serb townsfolk began to drift away. I'll never know for sure if that art class saved my life of course, but, to me at least, it does prove a point. Intelligence is the most interdisciplinary of disciplines. Analysts are routinely expected to understand data from diverse fields such as economics, politics, cultural anthropology, military affairs, history, public health, the hard sciences and, yes, even art.
A good liberal arts university provides the kind of depth and breadth that intelligence analysts need. When Bob Heibel started the program at Mercyhurst over 20 years ago, I know he saw the need for analysts to have a wide range of experiences and knowledge ranging from language and rhetoric to statistics and computer science. Today, it is easy to see that Bob's vision was correct. As counter-intuitive as it may seem to some, the applied discipline of intelligence studies is most at home in a liberal arts setting.
A few years ago, a group of very good student analysts had the opportunity to work on a report on the insurgency in the North Caucasus (including Chechnya). While old, the report is online and might contain some useful open source information for those looking into the Boston Marathon bombing incident. I highlight it "for what it is worth".
The question the students were asked to examine does not seem (to me, at least) to be very relevant to the investigation:
What is the current severity and effectiveness of the insurgency in
the North and South Caucasus regions (in regards to the quantitative and
geographic growth and spread of violence) and how is it likely to
change between now and the 2008 Russian Presidential election?
What are the capabilities and effectiveness of Russian military and security forces to combat the insurgency?
That said, and looking at it today, I think there might be some value in the large amount of background information they were able to collect, their link analysis of the various insurgency groups in the region, and their resources page (which includes a number of links to various maps of the area - I find it particularly interesting that the CommunityWalk maps they built identifying all of the attacks in the region still seem to be working!).
I have lost track of most of the students who wrote the report but I suspect they are working as analysts today and may even be working this issue. If so, good luck to you all - you did a great job back then and I am certain you are doing a great job today!
If you have direct knowledge of information that might help answer the question in the title or you have indirect knowledge that is relevant to the answer to the question in the title, please take 2 minutes to complete this survey.
What do I mean by direct and indirect knowledge?
Direct knowledge means that you know personally or have good
information concerning the hiring plans of your agency or organization
(or at least your section or division). You might work in HR or be a
manager with hiring responsibilities.
Indirect knowledge is information that is relevant to the
question that is not due to your direct responsibilities. You might
have spoken with an HR manager or have been involved in meetings where
this issue was discussed.
We are NOT looking for opinion based on purely circumstantial information. If you are not involved in the hiring process either directly or indirectly, please DO NOT take this survey.
What do I mean by "Intelligence (or Intelligence-like)..."?
First, I am not talking about private sector companies that support the US national security intelligence community. Those jobs have already been covered by our National Security Jobs Report earlier this year.
Second, jobs which require the skill set of an intelligence analyst are rarely labelled as such within the business community. You will have to use your best judgment here. If you or your organization employs people that look at the external environment - at things that are critical to the success or failure of your business but are, in some way, outside the control of your business (competitive analysis is one such area, but so is Banking Secrecy Act compliance) - then you are looking at an "intelligence-like" position.
Why are we interested?
Every year, other disciplines announce hiring projections for the year:
"This year's hot jobs are for engineers and chimney sweeps." That sort
of thing. Entry level intelligence analysts who are searching for a
job, on the other hand, receive no such guidance.
We hope to change that. Working with one of our hot-shot grad students,
Greg Marchwinski, we put together this survey to get a better feel for
the the job
market for entry level analysts for the year ahead.
Once we get enough survey data, Greg will compile it and combine it
with the macro-level, mostly qualitative data that we already have and
put together a "jobs report" for the year ahead. I will publish it here
once we are done.
Finally, we have already completed our national security jobs report for next year and will follow this business survey with our law enforcement survey.
That's right, the Institute of Intelligence Studies is sponsoring a professional development conference for its alumni, students and faculty this summer from 8-11 July at Mercyhurst University.
This is not an alumni "weekend", "retreat" or an "escape". It is not "homecoming". This is a premiere opportunity to hone your skills as an intelligence professional at the same place where you all got your start -- Mercyhurst.
We are bringing in top notch speakers (many of which are former classmates!) and are going to offer an extraordinary opportunity to network both inside and outside your chosen field (Quick: How many Mercyhurst intel alums currently work in the banking industry? In energy? In almost any field you can name? You will be surprised at the number!) and across the generations (We have been doing this for 20 years - I know, I find it hard to believe myself!).
If you need more enticement, the faculty will all be here to bring you up to speed on our current research activities (AKA "What we have learned about intel since you've been gone...") and where we are going in the future. With over 1000 alumni, 100's of research projects, dozens of full and part time faculty, and the opportunities represented by the new building, these are results you will want to know about.
This isn't just about us, though. We also want to learn from you, too. Our program is 20 years old this year and it is time to plot our course for the next 20 years. What are the problems you are having? What research do you need done to improve your ability to provide actionable intelligence to the decisionmakers you support? What skills and abilities do the intelligence analysts of tomorrow need today? Getting your input at this conference is crucial.
If you are a current student or alum you can register here to attend. I personally look forward to seeing each and every one of you!
How would you like to take counterintel courses for graduate credit from
some of the most experienced CI professionals in the world? Now you
can...
Mercyhurst University has been teaching counterintelligence courses in the
DC area for a number of years. Traditionally, we have done this in
coordination with a government or private partner. Last year, though,
we opened these classes up to qualified students
throughout the DC area.
These courses (there are three of them) make up our Graduate Certificate
in Counterintelligence. All of the classes are accredited, of course,
and are taught one per quarter for three quarters. If you want the
certificate, you would need to take all three and take them in series.
If you are just interested in learning more about the CI field, then you
could opt to take just the first course -- it is entirely your call.
The first course in this series will be offered in early September and
run for approximately 10 weeks. The course is not offered online and
will meet once a week in the evening at a location in the vicinity of
Tyson's Corner. There are no pre-requisites other than a bachelors
degree from an accredited university.
The courses are taught by Ray Batvinis, Bob Stephan and Tim Almon.
Stephan is the author of Stalin's Secret War
and has over 20 years experience with CIA, DIA and the USAF; Batvinis
spent 25 years at the FBI working on CI issues at the highest levels, Almon spent 25 years at the FBI before becoming the Director of Counterintelligence and Security Programs on the National Security Council Staff for Presidents Clinton and Bush.
Because of their experience and contacts, one of the unique aspects of
these classes are the kinds of guest speakers they can draw. For
example, they have been able to bring together Plato
Cacheris and John Martin (the defense attorney and the federal
prosecutor in the Robert Hanssen case) for a one-of-a-kind roundtable.
This brief note cannot do either this course or the guys teaching it
justice. If you want more information, please do not hesitate to
contact the director of our online and distance learning programs, Linda
Bremmer, at 814 824 2170 or lbremmer at mercyhurst dot edu.
For the last several years Mercyhurst has been going through the administrative process of changing our status from a "College" to a "University". Yesterday, we received notice from the State of Pennsylvania that our application had been approved.
(Note: I am going to talk about what I think this means and some of the new things that are likely to emerge as a result but I am also interested in what you have to say. so please leave a comment if you have one!)
This process actually began even before the first piece of paperwork went in. We changed our Carnegie Classification a number of years ago to better represent the courses, degree programs and research opportunities we offered.
Now that the status issue is resolved, we are all dealing with the inevitable administrative details that result from such a change, the first of which is our name. The Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies (MCIIS) is likely to change to the overwhelmingly favored Institute for Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University (IIS-MU) at some point. The institute's website (mciis.org) will likely get an upgrade at about the same time.
More interesting than the administrative details are some of our longer range initiatives. The University (going to take me awhile to get used to writing that...) intends to pursue doctorate programs in some of our majors, for example. Our hope is to be one of the first. I don't think we want to pursue a PhD type program, however, as there are already a number of PhD programs that would allow a student to focus on the academic aspects of studying intelligence.
Rather, I think we should, like MDs and JDs, offer a professional doctorate (DI? ID? InD?). The focus of such a degree, if I had my way, would be on application -- the actual doing of intelligence analysis -- rather than just talking about it. Specifically, I would like us to provide our doctoral students a chance to become better leaders and managers in addition to gaining increased skills as analysts.
We are obviously some distance from this objective but the conversation about the future direction of the intelligence studies program is starting. Now is the time to chime in!
The cards came in last week and look fantastic! Take a look at the unboxing pics below:
Cool, eh?
We should begin shipping out the complimentary copies to everyone who submitted a quote today. If you don't get your copy by 15 NOV, drop me a note (kwheaton at mercyhurst dot edu) with your mailing address.
Pre-orders made through the Mercyhurst Bookstore's online ordering service have already begun to be shipped. If you are interested in ordering fewer than 10 copies, you can continue to do so through the bookstore.
We are offering pretty sizable bulk discounts as well. If you want to order 10 or more copies (for all your training/morale building/Christmas needs!),
As a reminder, all profits from the sale of the cards will go to fund the activities of our three student intel clubs.
It is shaping up to be a heckuva year for intelligence studies at Mercyhurst. This fall we are welcoming our largest freshman class ever (we now have over 400 students in the program!), next summer we will be celebrating our 20th anniversary and 12 months from September 1, we should be moving into a new building.
One other major development that could also occur impacts more than just our little slice of heaven, though -- Mercyhurst College could become Mercyhurst University (though the timeline for this is much more variable, obviously).
With all this happening, it occurred to several of the faculty that we ought to re-examine our name. It started with the genuine naming problem presented by having an "MU" to deal with but expanded into a fairly deep (for us, that is) discussion of who and what we are.
With that in mind, I decided to see what our students, faculty, alumni and friends might think of our two current top choices. Using the wonderful Swayable tool, I put it to you: Which do you prefer, the more traditional "The Institute for Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University"? Or the alternative, "The Institute for Applied Intelligence at Mercyhurst University"? Cast your vote below!
If you don't like either one, leave a comment below!
How would you like to take counterintel courses for graduate credit from some of the most experienced CI professionals in the world? Now you can...
Mercyhurst College has been teaching counterintelligence courses in the DC area for a number of years. Traditionally, we have done this in coordination with a government or private partner. This year, however, we have decided to open these classes up to qualified students throughout the DC area.
These courses (there are three of them) make up our Graduate Certificate in Counterintelligence. All of the classes are accredited, of course, and are taught one per quarter for three quarters. If you want the certificate, you would need to take all three and take them in series. If you are just interested in learning more about the CI field, then you could opt to take just the first course -- it is entirely your call.
The first course in this series will be offered in early September and run for approximately 10 weeks. The course is not offered online and will meet once a week in the evening at a location in the vicinity of Tyson's Corner. There are no pre-requisites other than a bachelors degree from an accredited university.
The courses are taught by Brian Kelley, Bob Stephan and Ray Batvinis. Kelley spent more than 20 years in the DO at CIA working both defensive and offensive CI ops; Stephan is the author of Stalin's Secret War and has over 20 years expereince with CIA, DIA and the USAF; Batvinis spent 25 years at the FBI working on CI issues at the highest levels.
Because of their experience and contacts, one of the unique aspects of these classes are the kinds of guest speakers they can draw. For example, in the last class they were able to bring together Plato Cacheris and John Martin (the defense attorney and the federal prosecutor in the Robert Hanssen case) for a one-of-a-kind roundtable.
This brief note cannot do either this course or the guys teaching it justice. If you want more information, please do not hesitate to contact the director of our online and distance learning programs, Linda Bremmer, at 814 824 2170 or lbremmer at mercyhurst dot edu.
If you already know you are interested, you can contact Linda Bremmer, who administers all our online offerings, at [email protected]. If you want a bit more info, read on!
Although these courses are part of our Master of Science in Applied Intelligence program, both courses are also open to other qualified individuals. US citizenship is not required and it is not necessary to be enrolled in another Mercyhurst program. All students who successfully complete the classes receive 3 (fully transferable) graduate credits, so participants must have a prior undergraduate degree to enroll.
The leadership course will examine organizational leadership in the context of intelligence organizations and units. Students will explore leadership styles, principles, and models, in addition to developing a personal sense of how to lead groups and how to lead change within an intelligence organization.
Taught by the director of our graduate program, Dawn Wozneak (a former FBI analyst), the course will also examine contemporary issues and ethical challenges facing intelligence leaders, particularly how leadership decisions impact organizations, staff, morale, and public perceptions of intelligence organizations.
The Nonproliferation Analysis course will be taught by Kimberly Gilligan, currently with the Global Nuclear Security Technology Division, International Safeguards Group, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
This course was specifically designed for analysts and other interested people who do not specialize in non-proliferation issues but want/need some background in this area.
Topics will include the nuclear fuel cycle, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Additional Protocol, safeguards (including an overview of verification techniques and the use of open-source information), export control, proliferation incentives (and disincentives), nonproliferation trends, and nuclear terrorism. Two case studies will explore the nuclear black market and proliferation.
If you are interested now, contact Linda Bremmer, who can answer any additional questions, at [email protected].
One of the most important questions any intelligence professional can ask is "What do the decisionmakers I support want from me?" Historically, it is also one of the most difficult questions to answer.
Two other things make this conference one of a kind. The first is the attendees. This conference draws people from all three major sub-disciplines of intelligence: National security, law enforcement and business. Not only does it draw people from all areas of intelligence, it also draws people from all over the world.
So you are going to see guys like Tom Carr, the executive director of the Washington Baltimore High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area program rubbing shoulders with Liam Fahey, founder and executive director of the Intelligence Leadership Forum, the organization for senior corporate intelligence professionals.
There is simply no other conference that brings together this kind of mix of professionals for this kind of conference. Everyone I spoke with last year took as much away from the interaction between the participants as they did from the speakers.
Which is a nice segue to the second big advantage: Dungarvan. What a beautiful place! Located on the southern Irish coast in the midst of one of the prettiest parts of Ireland, Dungarvan is a perfect place for mixing, making new personal and professional relationships and carving out some time to think about some of the important questions facing the profession. Extraordinary hospitality, simple pleasures and (my personal favorite) an outstanding local beer make this event both physically relaxing and intellectually energizing.
We had to turn away people last year so this year we found a larger space and have expanded to 200 (and only 200) attendees.
Registration and more info about the conference is available online here. We are also offering two, one day workshops to round out the week. More information on the workshops here.
Questions regarding sponsorship opportunities for your company or organization should be directed to Bob Heibel, Executive Director of the Mercyhurst College Institute For Intelligence Studies at rheibel at mercyhurst dot edu.
Those of you who have made the pilgrimage to Mercyhurst know that we are bursting at the seams in our current digs. The new building will not only give us room to stretch our legs in a state-of-the-art facility but also allow us to more easily interact with the faculty and students of other departments -- an opportunity that I think we all are excited about.
The latest sketch of the new building is in the picture above. For those of you familiar with the campus, the building is set to be north and east of the library in the very front of the campus. The bridge on the third floor (visible in this picture) will connect the new building to the library. The funding for the basic version of the building, as I understand it, is largely complete. We are now looking for some generous donors to make it even more awesome...
So, students, parents, alumni and friends of the program, what do you think? Leave a note in the comments!
In this instance, Brian's target was FM 3-24, Counterinsurgency. In general, Brian was seeking to explore the "transferability" of the US's new doctrine: Would this doctrine work with respect to future conflicts in new geographical locations at any scale or was it designed, as new doctrines sometimes are, to win the "last war"? Brian was specifically trying to determine if "the new doctrine truly provides a framework to defeat insurgencies around the world regardless of the nature of the insurgency or if the doctrine’s utility is more limited."
Brian does many of the usual things you would expect to see in a thesis such as this and does them well. His literature review, for example, covers the history of US counterinsurgency doctrine, the genesis of the new doctrine and the critiques of that doctrine in a well-written and interesting way that contains enough detail without coming across as overwhelming.
Brian then uses the precepts that underlie the manual and the criticisms of the manual as a jumping off point for his own analysis based on "a total of seven insurgencies, from Malaya to Somalia, and the approaches of counter-insurgent forces from three countries—Great Britain, France, and the United States. In addition, the transferability of FM 3-24 was evaluated through the use of two methodologies, one theoretical and another providing real-world perspective."
Brian uses a nifty matrix to capture and display the results of his analysis. I have included a reduced size version of the matrix with this post but it is really worth the effort to download the full thesis and walk through Brian's dissection not only of the FM but also of its critics.
Ultimately Brian finds, "Despite the critiques of some counterinsurgency theorists, FM 3-24 has a high level of transferability.The transferability of FM 3-24 is not limited by a change in the geopolitical environment, a shift in the motivations of insurgents, the presence of third-party counter-insurgents, nor other characteristics that differentiate insurgencies today from the twentieth century.This means that the doctrine’s precepts—the balance of offensive, defensive, and stability operations, the importance of intelligence-driven operations, the necessity of training host nation security forces, etc—remain valid in a post-anti-colonial era.This result, however, only applies to domestic insurgencies.Serious questions emerge about the doctrine when it is applied to regional or global insurgencies."
If you are interested in counterinsurgency operations at all, it is worth a look. You can download the full text here.
The Mercyhurst College Institute Of Intelligence Studies is now accepting applications and inquiries for a 3 credit online graduate course in Cyberthreat Analysis. It is scheduled to begin on 29 NOV 2010 and will end on or about 23 FEB 2011.
The course is open to anyone with a bachelor's degree from an accredited college or university and an interest in the topic. The course is designed as an online, standalone, introductory graduate-level course -- there are are no prerequisites.
The instructor for the course is Billy Rios (see picture). Billy is currently a Senior Security Researcher with Google and has taught the course for us in the past. Before Google, he was the Security Program Manager for Internet Explorer and one of authors of the book, Hacking: The Next Generation. Billy has also served as a Marine Corps officer in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
According to the course description: "This course explores the relatively new discipline of cyberthreat analysis at a basic level, introducing students to the methodology of investigation, the threat environment (cyberspace), some of the online tools used by analysts, and their application in real world examples. Students will be introduced to the key concepts, tools, and terminologies used by professionals in the field and apply what they learn in lab exercises that model real-world events."
Our recent informal survey of hiring managers indicated that cyberthreat analysis is still one of the hottest areas of hiring in intel. This course is a great way to get your feet wet if you are looking to expand, improve or add depth to your professional portfolio as an intelligence analyst.
If you or anyone you know is interested, please have them contact Linda Bremmer at lbremmer at mercyhurst dot edu or call 814 824 2170.
The basis for the skepticism seems to be the lack of hard evidence that ACH actually improves forecasting accuracy. While this was not the only (and may not have been the most important) reason why Heuer created ACH, it is certainly a question that bears asking.
No matter how good a methodology is at organizing information or creating an analytic audit trail or easing the production burden, etc., the most important element of any intelligence methodology would seem to be its ability to increase the accuracy of the forecasts generated by the method (over what is achievable through raw intuition).
With a documented increase in forecasting accuracy, analysts should be willing to put up with almost any tedium associated with the method. A methodology that actually decreases forecasting accuracy, on the other hand, is almost certainly not worth considering, much less implementing. Methods which match raw intuition in forecasting accuracy really have to demonstrate that the ancillary benefits derived from the method are worth the costs associated with achieving them.
To test ACH, Drew used 70 students divided between a control and an experimental group who were all familiar with ACH. The groups were asked to research and estimate the results of the 2008 Washington State gubernatorial election between Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi (Gregoire won the election by about 6 percentage points). The students were given a week in September 2008 to independently work on their estimate of who would win the election in November.
The results were in favor of ACH in terms of both forecasting accuracy and bias. In Drew's words, "The findings of the experiment suggest ACH can improve estimative accuracy, is highly effective at mitigating some cognitive phenomena such as confirmation bias, and is almost certain to encourage analysts to use more information and apply it more appropriately."
The results of the experiment are displayed in the graphs below:
Statistical purists will argue that the results did not meet the traditional 95% confidence interval test suggesting that the accuracy difference may be due to chance. True enough. What is clear, though, is that ACH doesn't hurt forecasting accuracy and, when combined with the other results from the experiment (see below) strongly suggests that Drew's characterization of ACH is correct.
Becasue Drew captured the political affiliation of his test subjects before he conducted his experiment he was able to sort those subjects more or less evenly into the control and experimental groups. Here again, ACH comes away looking pretty good:
The chart may be a bit confusing at first but the bottomline is that Republicans were far more likely to accurately forecast the eventual victory of the Democratic candidate if they used ACH. Here again the statistics suggest that chance might play a larger role than normal (an effect exacerbated by the even smaller sample sizes for this test). At the least, however, these results are consistent with the first set of results and, again, do nothing to suggest that ACH does not work.
Drew's final test is the one that helps clarify any fuzziness in the results so far. Here he was looking for evidence of confirmation bias -- that is, analysts searching for facts that tend to confirm their hypotheses instead of looking at all facts objectively. He was able to find statistically significant amounts of such bias in the control group and almost none in the experimental group:
It is difficult for me to imagine a method which worked so well at removing biases that would also not improve forecasting accuracy. In short, based on the results of this experiment, concluding that ACH doesn't improve forecasting accuracy (due to the statistical fuzziness) would also require one to conclude that biases don't matter when it comes to forecasting accuracy. This is an arguable hypothesis, I suppose, but not where I would put my money...
The most interesting part of the thesis, in my opinion, though, is the conclusion. Here Drew makes the case that the statistical fuzziness was a result of the kind of problem tested, not the methodology. He suggests that "ACH may be less effective for an analytical problem where the objective probabilities of each hypothesis are nearly equal."
In short, when the objective probability of an event approaches 50%, ACH may no longer have the resolution necessary to generate an accurate forecast. Likewise, as objective reality approaches either 0% or 100%, ACH becomes increasingly less necessary as the correct estimative conclusion is more or less obvious to the "naked eye". Close elections, like the one in Washington State in 2008 may, therefore, be beyond the resolving power of ACH.
Like much good science, Drew's thesis has generated a new testable hypothesis (one we are, in fact, in the process of testing!). It is definitely worth the time it takes to read.
Original material on Sources and Methods Blog by Kristan J. Wheaton is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
