Demography

1 US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle WA, USA. 2 Brown University, Providence RI, USA. 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. 4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, USA.

Changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next several decades could affect energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. This article incorporates population age structure into an energy-economic growth model with multiple dynasties of heterogeneous households. The model is used to estimate and compare effects of population aging and technical change on baseline paths of U.S. energy use and emissions. Results show that population aging reduces long-term carbon dioxide emissions, by almost 40% in a low population scenario, and effects of aging on emissions can be as large, or larger than effects of technical change in some cases.

China has been a subject of interest to both scientists and the general public, not only because of its huge population size, but also due to its rapid demographic and socioeconomic transition, which offers rich and unique research material and poses great intellectual challenges for scholars. Accordingly, a number of syntheses or overviews of China's population have been already presented by both Western and Chinese authors during the past two decades. However, the most recent book Transition and Challenge: China's Population at the Beginning of the 21st Century is truly a landmark publication and merits special attention. The editors Zhongwei Zhao and Fei Guo bring together a group of worldwide leading Chinese and Western experts and consolidate individual chapters by the contributors into a most cohesive scientific work. The book unfolds along the story of China's demographic transition-which to the editors has recently been completed-and systematically reviews the processes and forces of the transition, through investigating the core demographic components of fertility, mortality, and migration. While the introduction chapter provides excellent background information, the final chapter concludes the findings from a broader perspective by situating China's population and its transition in the context of socio-demographic system of the whole world. In addition to analyses of the events common to almost all populations, there are chapters devoted to special issues that are unique to China's demographic transition, e.g. the family planning program, induced abortion, high sex ratio at birth, and temporary migration. Regency of the book is immediately evident from the fact that all chapters contain the most up-to-date scientific information, including analyses of the 2000 Census micro-level data and data from the latest national surveys. Most of the authors invest great effort in scrutinizing the reliability and consistency of statistics

Slums and squatters are not widespread in most Chinese cities and towns even though China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. Moreover, statistics from the 2000 Census reveal that migrants do not necessarily live in poorer housing conditions than non-migrants in urban areas; some housing facilities for the floating population, who moved without changes in household registration, are even better than those of local urban residents. Using 1 per cent of the household sample of the 2000 Census dataset, this paper examines the living conditions and their determinants of the floating population in urban China.

The market transition in China has resulted in significant social inequality, including housing inequality, in a formerly egalitarian society. This article provides both a conceptual framework and an empirical analysis of housing inequality in transitional urban China. Using the 1995 1% Population Survey and the 2000 Census data for Beijing, it shows that there was significant housing inequality between different socioeconomic and institutional groups, and that the reforms in the late 1990s aggravated it. While emerging market mechanisms began to contribute to housing inequality, socialist institutions such as the household registration (hukou) system continued to be significant in the late 1990s, although there is evidence of the declining importance of other institutional factors such as political status. This study contributes to the market transition debate by arguing that different elements of the socialist institutions follow different paths in the reform and thus have different impacts on social inequality. We sincerely thank David Miao Chunyu for his data analysis, and the IJURR reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions.

Water resources are the root of life and development in arid areas like the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China. In the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang, one of the driest places in the world, melting glaciers are the exclusive water source. Population growth, in particular in-migration, has greatly changed the ecological conditions of the Tarim River Basin in the past 2500 years. Our research aims to study the interactions between population growth and changes in water and land resources, crossing the boundaries of the different reaches in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years. Time series data on population changes and economic development, water volume and quality, land use and land cover changes, and prevalence of morbidity relevant to water quality are collected to study the relationship between these factors. Adopting a statistical analysis and systems dynamics approach, we quantify the effect of population growth on water use and land degradation.

A new set of alternative socioeconomic scenarios for climate change researches-the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)-includes for the first time a more comprehensive set of demographic conditions on population, urbanization, and education as the central scenario elements, along with other aspects of society, in order to facilitate better analyses of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, it also raises a new question about the internal consistency of assumptions on different demographic and economic trends under each SSP. This paper examines whether the interactions between the demographic and economic factors implied by the assumptions in the SSP projections are consistent with the research literature, and whether they are consistently represented in the projection results. Our analysis shows that the interactions implied by the demographic assumptions in the SSPs are generally consistent with findings from the literature, and the majority of the assumed relationships are also evident in the projected trends. It also reveals some inconsistency issues, resulting mainly from the use of inconsistent definitions of regions and limitations in our understanding of future changes in the patterns of interactions at different stages of socioeconomic development. Finally, we offer recommendations on how to improve demographic assumptions in the extended SSPs, and how to use the projections of SSP central elements in climate change research.

The interfacial charge transfer process between CuTsPc lipid-free multilayer film and p-Si(ll l) was studied by a time-resolved surface photovoltage technique. It was found that there are two electronic processes under the excitation by a 670 nm pulsed laser. The fast process corresponds to the photovoltage response ofp-Si(111), and the slow one is associated with the interfacial charge transfer interaction between the CuTsPc film and p-Si(111).

The Technical Notes series provides an outlet for a variety of NCAR Manuscripts that contribute in specialized ways to the body of scientific knowledge but that are not yet at a point of a formal journal, monograph or book publication. Reports in this series are issued by the NCAR scientific divisions, serviced by OpenSky and operated through the NCAR Library. Designation symbols for the series include: EDD-Engineering, Design, or Development Reports Equipment descriptions, test results, instrumentation, and operating and maintenance manuals.

Based on an analysis of a nationally representative rural household survey and various sources of aggregate statistics, we explore patterns of residential energy use in rural China within the conceptual framework of the energy transition. We find that residential energy consumption varies tremendously across geographic regions due to disparities of access to different energy sources, prices, climate, income and urbanisation level. Household demographic characteristics, in particular household size, have an important impact on residential energy use. Aggregate time series data show that the transition from biomass to modern commercial sources is still at an early stage, and cross-sectional data suggest that incomes may have to rise substantially in order for absolute biomass use to fall. We also find that energy use patterns as a function of net income, rather than total expenditure, are more consistent with the energy transition model in rural China.

Is education the best contraceptive? Using the multistate human capital projection model, our analysis shows that the projected changes in India population vary depending on investments in education and helping women reduce unwanted fertility rates, that investments in both education and helping women in each education category—but particularly less educated women—meet their wanted fertility will have the largest impacts on India’s population projections, and that the impact from investment in reducing unwanted fertility will be much more immediate and significant than only investments in education. Our analysis also reveals that an increasing education transition rate in India will not only help to achieve a population age structure that is favorable for economic growth, but also result in a larger share of skilled labor force that help to achieve higher economic growth rate. More importantly, investment in girls’ education and achieving gender equality in education will be the mos...

During the past half century, the number of individuals affected by natural disasters worldwide has sharply increased (Figure 1). Within countries, migration flows have resulted in substantial redistributions-as of 2005, 763 million people were living outside their region of birth (UNDP 2013). The potential exists for redistribution to increase exposure to natural disasters if migration flows tend toward more vulnerable locations. The analyses in this Research Note are simple, but instructive. Mexican census micro data is used to estimate municipality-scale migration streams which are coupled with a disaster database (OSSO, 2013). We then contrast the total number of individuals exposed to natural disasters between 2005-2010 to the total number of individuals that would have been exposed in the case of no migration. Why Mexico? Mexico provides an important case study due to both its long history of large-scale migration and its unique susceptibility to natural disasters and the potential impacts of climate change. Within Mexico, 6.3 million migrants (~6% of the population) moved domestically during 2005-2010 (Ruggles et al. 2003). These high levels of migration are accompanied by a particular sensitivity to climate change, due to both the larger environmental impacts expected in subtropical areas (Boyd and Ibarrarán, 2009) and the socioeconomic vulnerability of many Mexicans (Eakin, 2005; Romero-Lankao et al., 2012). Hernandez et al. (2003) suggest that up to 39 percent of the Mexican territory to be under persistent drought conditions. Some climate scenarios project that areas in southern Mexico will effectively become unsuitable for rain-fed agriculture (Adamo and de Sherbinin, 2011).