The SemiAnalysis Memory Model provides a comprehensive, bottoms-up analysis of the global DRAM and NAND flash markets. It tracks the industry from the fab floor to the spot market, enabling clients to gauge historical trends and future supply-demand dynamics. This tool is essential for hyperscalers, semiconductor companies, consumer OEMs/ODMs for supply chain planning and competitive analysis, as well as for institutional investors tracking the cyclical nature of the memory market.
Our data is provided for 2022 to 2027 on a quarterly basis.
Detailed Memory Supply Data
Wafer Capacity & Utilization:
Installed monthly wafer capacity and actual utilization rates by fab, vendor, and technology node.
Technology & Nodes:
Granular transitions across major process nodes for DRAM (1α, 1β, 1γ, etc.) and NAND (layer counts, e.g., 176L, 232L, 300L+). This includes data tracking HBM and SOCAMM supply in wafer and bits.
Die & Yield Analysis:
- Die size and density specifications by each process node from each memory player.
- Gross die per wafer (GDPW) and net good die (NGD) estimates.
- Mature and ramping yield rates for leading-edge nodes.
- Bits per wafer for each process node from each memory company
Bit Supply
Tracks total bits supply and annualized bit growth projections, adjusted for layer and node transitions as well as yield curves. Bit supply data is also provided by vendor, enabling clients to track capacity at the fab level with quarterly granularity.
Bits Demand:
Provides demand estimates based on shipment and growth tracking across multiple end markets, spanning servers and core consumer electronics categories such as mobile, tablets, PCs, laptops, etc.
Pricing and Market Dynamics
Pricing Models:
Historical and forecasted spot and contract pricing for major commodity and premium memory products. The pricing model provides retrospective spot and contract pricing data, along with forward-looking price forecasts. The pricing model also provides backward- and forward-looking HBM pricing analysis, aligned with our Accelerator Model, which offers institutional modelling on global AI accelerator shipments and specifications.
HBM Pricing:
Offers comprehensive HBM pricing across multiple generations and suppliers, paired with vendor-level shipment volumes expressed in stacks, bits, and wafers. The data is reinforced by SemiAnalysis’ Accelerator Model, delivering institutional-grade research and tracking of global AI accelerator shipments.
Revenue, Margins, and COGS Analysis:
Provide bottom-up, technically grounded analysis of vendor gross margins across process nodes and product segments, leveraging detailed die-level cost modeling and observed average selling prices (ASPs).
Memory Supply-Demand Analysis:
Predictive modeling on DRAM/NAND market supply-demand dynamics, inventory correction cycles, and potential shortages.
DRAM/NAND Capex Tracker:
A tracker of DRAM and NAND capital spending with segmental analysis, delivering actionable insights into capacity growth and infrastructure roadmaps across memory players.
Coverage of all major and emerging vendors, including:
- DRAM: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT, Nanya Tech, Winbond, JHICC, and YMTC
- NAND: Samsung, SK Hynix (including Solidigm), Kioxia-Sandisk, Micron, YMTC.
The model includes one year of quarterly updates covering additional features and enhancements, an initial onboarding call with SemiAnalysis to explain the model structure and methodologies, and ongoing ad-hoc support calls to address questions arising from model usage. The lead analyst will also provide timely ad-hoc updates on key industry developments to ensure the model remains aligned with clients’ interests.
These models are not included with the annual membership to the SemiAnalysis Newsletter. All models are separate institutional offerings.
