The present article is devoted to the issue of unity of laws, patterns and mechanisms of evolutio... more The present article is devoted to the issue of unity of laws, patterns and mechanisms of evolution at all its stages and levels and also to the place of social evolution in the single and universal process of universal evolution or mega-evolution. Despite the enormous differences between cosmic, planetological, chemical, biological, and social evolutions, there are many similarities. Unfortunately, quite a few works are devoted to their identification. In the present article we will consider a number of such important similarities, which, in our opinion, clearly demonstrate the systemic-structural and functional-evolutionary unity of the world at its different levels and in different areas. The understanding of these similarities deepens our perception of social evolution and its regularities, and leads us away from the false idea that social evolution in all aspects is different from the evolution of previous levels. In the first section our key goal is to give our own definitions of evolution and social evolution which would cover as many variants of evolutionary changes as possible. In the second section we tried to give a rather voluminous and dialectical picture of the unfolding universal evolution instead of a primitive scheme: cosmic – biological – social. There introduce notions of main and transitional phases of universal evolution and show the importance of its planetological and chemical phases. In the third section we show that one can reveal a number of similarities at all levels and phases of mega-evolution, which can be generalized in uni-versal laws, rules, mechanisms, patterns and principles of evolution. One should note that in fact none of the important laws and principles as well as none of important rules of evolution have been ‘lost’ in the process of moving from lower to higher levels. They were only modified and became more complicated, and there also appeared some new principles and rules (in retrospect one can see their rudiments at the lowest levels of evolution). Some of these laws and rules are described in this section. In the fourth section we will try to present some evolutionary and philosophical ideas that explain the profound similarity in the laws and patterns of mega-evolution at all its levels and phases. In the Conclusion we discuss evolutionary and non-evolutionary matter.
The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from si... more The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from singularity (i.e., a state of an infinitely small quantity and infinitely high concentration of matter) is still very popular today. It was one of the main postulates of the Big Bang theory that completely formed in the 1960s–1970s. However, at present this idea as well as the Big Bang theory is outdated, although it is still shared by many scientists. Being widespread since the end of the 1970s the Inflation theory appears more modern. The main reason for the emergence of the Inflation theory was that the Big Bang theory could not satisfactorily explain a number of the contemporary parameters of the Universe. The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic, in particular as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future... more In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future” (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In otherwords,within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World.
The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi-lisation in the process of poli... more The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi-lisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a number of cases authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms than emerging democracies, especially those of a revolutionary type, which are often incapable of ensuring social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of transition to an efficient and stable democracy. Using historical and contemporary examples, particularly the recent events in Egypt, the article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and the possibility of establishing democracy in a society.
Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has... more Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the developed states.
The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insuffici... more The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities stem from the fact that in both cases we are dealing with very complex non-equilibrium (but rather stable) systems whose principles of functioning and evolution are described by the General Systems' Theory, as well as by a number of cybernetic principles and laws. Secondly, in both cases we do not deal with isolated systems; in both cases we deal with a complex interaction between systems of organic systems and external environment, whereas the reaction of systems to external challenges can be described in terms of certain general principles (that, however, express themselves rather differently within the biological reality, on the one hand, and within the social reality, on the other).
This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. ... more This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global History & Big History. The point is that today our global world really demands global knowledge. Thus, there are a few actively developing multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multidisciplinary approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes.
Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространств... more Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространстве и одного из первых в мире трудов по этой тематике, рассматривающего историю формирования глобального связанного мира, а также значимых на глобальном уровне явлений и процессов. Во втором томе этот подход применяется для изучения «долгого XIX века» – периода бурных технологических, социальных, экономических, политических и иных трансформаций глобального мира. Особое внимание уделяется так называемому «золотому веку глобализации» – периоду в конце XIX и начале XX в., когда финансовая, торговая и миграционная связанность глобального мира достигла невиданного прежде масштаба.
The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography,
Culture... more The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words, ‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales – from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics, Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the studies of different spheres and epochs. This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III) Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations). We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populati... more Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populations increase and decline, economies expand and contract, while states grow and collapse. How can we study mechanisms that bring about temporal change and explain the observed trajectories? A very common approach, which has proved its worth in innumerable applications (particularly, but not exclusively, in the natural sciences), consists of taking a holistic phenomenon and mentally splitting it up into separate parts that are assumed to interact with each other. This is the dynamical systems approach, because the whole phenomenon is represented as a system consisting of several interacting elements (or subsystems).
In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and
differences between biologic... more In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This is more or less identical with the working of the collective learning mechanism. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity growth and the complexity of community structure, suggesting the presence within the biosphere of a certain analogue of the collective learning mechanism. We discuss how such positive feedback mechanisms can be modelled mathematically.
Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной, Земли, жизни и общества)., 2012
Перед вами Хрестоматия, которая называется Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной... more Перед вами Хрестоматия, которая называется Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной, Земли, жизни и общества). «Универсальная и глобальная история» – это история универсума (Вселенной), насколько ее может реконструировать современная наука и история земного шара (от лат. globus – шар), жизни и человечества.
This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to
the question, ‘Wha... more This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a leader in the future World System? Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmentation continue to worsen? How can national sovereignty be transformed?
Историческая психология и социология истории, 2017
В 2017 году исполнилось не только сто лет со дня революции 1917 года, но также 500-летие начала Р... more В 2017 году исполнилось не только сто лет со дня революции 1917 года, но также 500-летие начала Реформации в Германии. Именно с Реформации можно начинать отсчет современных революций в Европе и в мире. В первой части статьи анализируются линии трансформации революций в ходе исторического процесса, в частности то, как изменялись на протяжении этих столетий их всемирно-историческая роль, социальные базы, революционные идеологии, практики, используемые ими информационные технологии. Показано, какие важные изменения в революционные практики и в само понимание сущности революции были внесены каждой крупной революцией. Во второй части статьи также освещаются некоторые вопросы, связанные с теорией революции,в частности, дается классификация типов революций, начиная от религиозных и заканчивая модернизационными, отмечены некоторые важные условия возникновения революций. В заключении мы рассмотрим вопрос о том, как и почему революции с определенного момента все активнее используются как геополитическое оружие. The year 2017 was marked not only by the 100th anniversary of the Russian revolution but also by five hundred years passed from the start of the Reformation in Germany. It is just from the Reformation that one can account for revolutions in Europe and world. The first part of the article analyzes the range of transformations of revolutions in the course of historical development; in particular, the ways their role in the world history, social basis, revolutionary ideologies and practices and used information means would change over these centuries. It is also shown which important changes in revolutionary practices and the very essence of revolution were brought by every great revolution. While considering these aspects and also in the second part of the article the author touches some issues connected with the theory of revolutions. In particular, the author classifies revolutions starting from religious to modernization ones and considers some important causes of revolutions. In the final part, the author speaks about how and why revolutions starting from a certain moment are more actively used as geopolitical means.
В статье проведен анализ роли революций в историческом процессе. Показано, почему революции стали... more В статье проведен анализ роли революций в историческом процессе. Показано, почему революции стали неизбежными в Новое время, какова их роль в развитии обществ, почему последнее пришло в несоответствие со сложившимися политическими и социальными институтами. С одной стороны, революции рассматриваются как закономерность определенно-го этапа развития общества, а с другой – проанализировано, как и почему роль революций существенно меняется в разные периоды истории, дано объяснение, почему революции из «локомотивов развития» в итоге оказались очень затратным и малопродуктивным социальным экспериментом. Сделана попытка развить некоторые аспекты теории революции (революционная ситуация, роль идеологии и психологии общества в определенные моменты и др.). Ключевые слова: революция, социалистическая революция, мировой порядок, баланс сил, геополитика, ядерная гонка, антиколониальное движение, третий мир, социализм, капитализм, новые принципы международных отношений, право наций на самоопределение. The article presents the analysis of the role of revolutions in historical process. It is shown why the revolutions were inevitable in the Modern era and what is their role in societal development as well as why the latter started to mismatch the existing political and social institutions. On the one hand, revolutions are considered as common phenomena for a certain stage of society's * Исследование выполнено при поддержке РФФИ (проект № 17-06-00464). The article presents the analysis of the role of revolutions in historical process. It is shown why the revolutions were inevitable in the Modern era and what is their role in societal development as well as why the latter started to mismatch the existing political and social institutions. On the one hand, revolutions are considered as common phenomena for a certain stage of society’s development, and on the other hand, the author analyses why and how the role of revolutions considerably changes in different periods of history as well as explains why revolutions from a driving force finally become an expensive and not productive social experiment. He also makes an attempt to elaborate some aspects of the theory of revolution (a revolutionary situation, role of society’s ideology and psychology over certain periods etc.).
The present article is devoted to the issue of unity of laws, patterns and mechanisms of evolutio... more The present article is devoted to the issue of unity of laws, patterns and mechanisms of evolution at all its stages and levels and also to the place of social evolution in the single and universal process of universal evolution or mega-evolution. Despite the enormous differences between cosmic, planetological, chemical, biological, and social evolutions, there are many similarities. Unfortunately, quite a few works are devoted to their identification. In the present article we will consider a number of such important similarities, which, in our opinion, clearly demonstrate the systemic-structural and functional-evolutionary unity of the world at its different levels and in different areas. The understanding of these similarities deepens our perception of social evolution and its regularities, and leads us away from the false idea that social evolution in all aspects is different from the evolution of previous levels. In the first section our key goal is to give our own definitions of evolution and social evolution which would cover as many variants of evolutionary changes as possible. In the second section we tried to give a rather voluminous and dialectical picture of the unfolding universal evolution instead of a primitive scheme: cosmic – biological – social. There introduce notions of main and transitional phases of universal evolution and show the importance of its planetological and chemical phases. In the third section we show that one can reveal a number of similarities at all levels and phases of mega-evolution, which can be generalized in uni-versal laws, rules, mechanisms, patterns and principles of evolution. One should note that in fact none of the important laws and principles as well as none of important rules of evolution have been ‘lost’ in the process of moving from lower to higher levels. They were only modified and became more complicated, and there also appeared some new principles and rules (in retrospect one can see their rudiments at the lowest levels of evolution). Some of these laws and rules are described in this section. In the fourth section we will try to present some evolutionary and philosophical ideas that explain the profound similarity in the laws and patterns of mega-evolution at all its levels and phases. In the Conclusion we discuss evolutionary and non-evolutionary matter.
The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from si... more The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from singularity (i.e., a state of an infinitely small quantity and infinitely high concentration of matter) is still very popular today. It was one of the main postulates of the Big Bang theory that completely formed in the 1960s–1970s. However, at present this idea as well as the Big Bang theory is outdated, although it is still shared by many scientists. Being widespread since the end of the 1970s the Inflation theory appears more modern. The main reason for the emergence of the Inflation theory was that the Big Bang theory could not satisfactorily explain a number of the contemporary parameters of the Universe. The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic, in particular as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future... more In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future” (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In otherwords,within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World.
The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi-lisation in the process of poli... more The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi-lisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a number of cases authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms than emerging democracies, especially those of a revolutionary type, which are often incapable of ensuring social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of transition to an efficient and stable democracy. Using historical and contemporary examples, particularly the recent events in Egypt, the article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and the possibility of establishing democracy in a society.
Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has... more Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the developed states.
The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insuffici... more The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities stem from the fact that in both cases we are dealing with very complex non-equilibrium (but rather stable) systems whose principles of functioning and evolution are described by the General Systems' Theory, as well as by a number of cybernetic principles and laws. Secondly, in both cases we do not deal with isolated systems; in both cases we deal with a complex interaction between systems of organic systems and external environment, whereas the reaction of systems to external challenges can be described in terms of certain general principles (that, however, express themselves rather differently within the biological reality, on the one hand, and within the social reality, on the other).
This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. ... more This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global History & Big History. The point is that today our global world really demands global knowledge. Thus, there are a few actively developing multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multidisciplinary approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes.
Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространств... more Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространстве и одного из первых в мире трудов по этой тематике, рассматривающего историю формирования глобального связанного мира, а также значимых на глобальном уровне явлений и процессов. Во втором томе этот подход применяется для изучения «долгого XIX века» – периода бурных технологических, социальных, экономических, политических и иных трансформаций глобального мира. Особое внимание уделяется так называемому «золотому веку глобализации» – периоду в конце XIX и начале XX в., когда финансовая, торговая и миграционная связанность глобального мира достигла невиданного прежде масштаба.
The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography,
Culture... more The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words, ‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales – from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics, Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the studies of different spheres and epochs. This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III) Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations). We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populati... more Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populations increase and decline, economies expand and contract, while states grow and collapse. How can we study mechanisms that bring about temporal change and explain the observed trajectories? A very common approach, which has proved its worth in innumerable applications (particularly, but not exclusively, in the natural sciences), consists of taking a holistic phenomenon and mentally splitting it up into separate parts that are assumed to interact with each other. This is the dynamical systems approach, because the whole phenomenon is represented as a system consisting of several interacting elements (or subsystems).
In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and
differences between biologic... more In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This is more or less identical with the working of the collective learning mechanism. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity growth and the complexity of community structure, suggesting the presence within the biosphere of a certain analogue of the collective learning mechanism. We discuss how such positive feedback mechanisms can be modelled mathematically.
Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной, Земли, жизни и общества)., 2012
Перед вами Хрестоматия, которая называется Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной... more Перед вами Хрестоматия, которая называется Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной, Земли, жизни и общества). «Универсальная и глобальная история» – это история универсума (Вселенной), насколько ее может реконструировать современная наука и история земного шара (от лат. globus – шар), жизни и человечества.
This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to
the question, ‘Wha... more This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a leader in the future World System? Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmentation continue to worsen? How can national sovereignty be transformed?
Историческая психология и социология истории, 2017
В 2017 году исполнилось не только сто лет со дня революции 1917 года, но также 500-летие начала Р... more В 2017 году исполнилось не только сто лет со дня революции 1917 года, но также 500-летие начала Реформации в Германии. Именно с Реформации можно начинать отсчет современных революций в Европе и в мире. В первой части статьи анализируются линии трансформации революций в ходе исторического процесса, в частности то, как изменялись на протяжении этих столетий их всемирно-историческая роль, социальные базы, революционные идеологии, практики, используемые ими информационные технологии. Показано, какие важные изменения в революционные практики и в само понимание сущности революции были внесены каждой крупной революцией. Во второй части статьи также освещаются некоторые вопросы, связанные с теорией революции,в частности, дается классификация типов революций, начиная от религиозных и заканчивая модернизационными, отмечены некоторые важные условия возникновения революций. В заключении мы рассмотрим вопрос о том, как и почему революции с определенного момента все активнее используются как геополитическое оружие. The year 2017 was marked not only by the 100th anniversary of the Russian revolution but also by five hundred years passed from the start of the Reformation in Germany. It is just from the Reformation that one can account for revolutions in Europe and world. The first part of the article analyzes the range of transformations of revolutions in the course of historical development; in particular, the ways their role in the world history, social basis, revolutionary ideologies and practices and used information means would change over these centuries. It is also shown which important changes in revolutionary practices and the very essence of revolution were brought by every great revolution. While considering these aspects and also in the second part of the article the author touches some issues connected with the theory of revolutions. In particular, the author classifies revolutions starting from religious to modernization ones and considers some important causes of revolutions. In the final part, the author speaks about how and why revolutions starting from a certain moment are more actively used as geopolitical means.
В статье проведен анализ роли революций в историческом процессе. Показано, почему революции стали... more В статье проведен анализ роли революций в историческом процессе. Показано, почему революции стали неизбежными в Новое время, какова их роль в развитии обществ, почему последнее пришло в несоответствие со сложившимися политическими и социальными институтами. С одной стороны, революции рассматриваются как закономерность определенно-го этапа развития общества, а с другой – проанализировано, как и почему роль революций существенно меняется в разные периоды истории, дано объяснение, почему революции из «локомотивов развития» в итоге оказались очень затратным и малопродуктивным социальным экспериментом. Сделана попытка развить некоторые аспекты теории революции (революционная ситуация, роль идеологии и психологии общества в определенные моменты и др.). Ключевые слова: революция, социалистическая революция, мировой порядок, баланс сил, геополитика, ядерная гонка, антиколониальное движение, третий мир, социализм, капитализм, новые принципы международных отношений, право наций на самоопределение. The article presents the analysis of the role of revolutions in historical process. It is shown why the revolutions were inevitable in the Modern era and what is their role in societal development as well as why the latter started to mismatch the existing political and social institutions. On the one hand, revolutions are considered as common phenomena for a certain stage of society's * Исследование выполнено при поддержке РФФИ (проект № 17-06-00464). The article presents the analysis of the role of revolutions in historical process. It is shown why the revolutions were inevitable in the Modern era and what is their role in societal development as well as why the latter started to mismatch the existing political and social institutions. On the one hand, revolutions are considered as common phenomena for a certain stage of society’s development, and on the other hand, the author analyses why and how the role of revolutions considerably changes in different periods of history as well as explains why revolutions from a driving force finally become an expensive and not productive social experiment. He also makes an attempt to elaborate some aspects of the theory of revolution (a revolutionary situation, role of society’s ideology and psychology over certain periods etc.).
Настоящая книга является третьей частью задуманной автором большой монографии. В ней предпринимае... more Настоящая книга является третьей частью задуманной автором большой монографии. В ней предпринимается попытка объединить преимущества Большой истории, то есть истории всего: от возникновения Вселенной до современного состояния человечества и эволюционистики. Автор стремился показать, с одной стороны, процесс роста эволюционной сложности мира, а с другой – сходства в эволюционных законах, принципах и механизмах на разных уровнях и этапах эволюции. Такая задача еще не решалась никем. Первая книга была посвящена космической эволюции и истории от Большого взрыва 13,8 млрд лет назад до формирования Солнечной системы (4,57 млрд лет назад). Вторая книга – эволюции и истории ранней Солнечной системы в ее первый миллиард лет (от зарождения до конца поздней тяжелой бомбардировки метеоритами и установления орбит планет). Третья книга включает довольно подробное описание планет и части спутников Солнечной системы, а также их 4,5-миллиардную историю и эволюцию в сравнении между собой и с эволюцией Земли. Важно отметить, что подобных исследований, которые бы представляли историю и эволюцию планет и спутников Солнечной системы в комплексе, с хронологией, сравнением истории планет в синхронных срезах, нет. В этом, а также и в некоторых других отношениях данная книга является уникальной. Помимо истории планет и планетных тел нашей Солнечной системы, в этой книге также представлена краткая история химической эволюции – от зарождения первых атомов во Вселенной до абиогенеза на Земле, то есть этапа преджизни и формирования предпосылок для появления первых живых организмов. Раздел о химической эволюции очень важен для понимания как истории жизни (поскольку химическая абиогенная эволюция – это переход от косной к живой материи), так и истории Земли (геологической эволюции). Книга будет интересна и полезна всем, кто интересуется проблемами космологии, эволюции и философии мироздания, кого волнуют проблемы устройства мира, тем, кто работает на стыке междисциплинарных проблем и хочет быть в курсе современных научных достижений. Она написана в достаточно популярной манере, но в то же время опирается на серьезные научные исследования, то есть рассчитана как на специалистов, так и на широкий круг читателей.
Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой восьмой том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональ... more Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой восьмой том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональных рисков», подготовленный в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ «Ближний и Средний Восток в контексте глобального фазового перехода» (руководитель – профессор А. В. Коротаев). Мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков – многоаспектное научное направление, включающее в себя комплексное исследование экономических, политических, социальных, а также культурных особенностей развития того или иного региона. Мы надеемся, что данный выпуск ежегодника будет полезен как специалистам, так и широкому кругу читателей, интересующихся глобальными процессами, кризисами, прогнозами мирового развития.
The scope of human thought along with its ability to proceed from reconstruction of the most anci... more The scope of human thought along with its ability to proceed from reconstruction of the most ancient periods to anticipation of the distant future, from small objects to galaxies and the Universe as well as, to embrace different trends and dimensions of reality never ceases to amaze us. You are reading a new issue of the Yearbook which contains some ‘grains’ of the description of the billion years' path. This Yearbook presents the global studies which cover different fields of research. The present volume is the sixth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the volume is ‘Global Evolution, Historical Globalistics and Globalization Studies’ which reflects the contents. The present issue brings together a variety of contributions devoted to mega- and global evolution (Part I); historical globalistics (Part II); globalization and glocalization (Parts III–IV). Besides, Part IV comprises some issues on the view in the future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues
В начале 2015 года было опубликовано исследование Центра долгосрочного прогнозирования и стратеги... more В начале 2015 года было опубликовано исследование Центра долгосрочного прогнозирования и стратегического планирования МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова «Краткосрочные и долгосрочные угрозы и риски России в условиях обострения международных отношений и пути их минимизации. Стратегический анализ» (М.: Учитель, 2015). В нем не только был дан прогноз основных угроз (в частности, дальнейшее развитие современной гибридной войны между Соединенными Штатами Америки и Россией), но и предложены меры по противодействию этим угрозам. За прошедший с тех пор период некоторые из предложенных мер в той или иной степени были реализованы. В то же время невыполнение ряда предложений и рекомендаций, особенно в экономической и финансовой сферах, способствовало обострению ситуации и помешало выйти на траекторию устойчивого и динамичного экономического и социально-политического развития. В настоящей работе дается обновленный прогноз наиболее важных сдвигов и изменений в ближайшее десятилетие и связанных с ними рисков и угроз для России с учетом недавнего Указа Президента от 7 мая 2018 года № 204 «О национальных целях и стратегических задачах развития Российской Федерации на период до 2024 года».
Книга рассказывает о наиболее фундаментальных закономерностях, лежащих в основе крупномасштабных ... more Книга рассказывает о наиболее фундаментальных закономерностях, лежащих в основе крупномасштабных эволюционных изменений в природе и обществе. Авторы – философ Л. Е. Гринин, биолог А. В. Марков и историк А. В. Коротаев – рассматривают свыше 70 правил и законов макроэволюции, прослеживающихся в развитии живой природы и человеческого общества. Выявлены как общие, так и специфичные для каждого из двух типов макроэволюции черты, которые проиллюстрированы большим количеством примеров, взятых из разных областей эволюционной биологии, истории и социологии. На богатом фактическом материале сделан сравнительный анализ черт сходства и различия биологической и социальной макроэволюции; показаны их преемственность и закономерный характер по- явления у одного из видов животных способности к ускоренному развитию на основе социальной макроэволюции. Монография снабжена глоссарием. Книга рассчитана на широкий круг читателей: социологов, историков, фи- лософов, биологов, а также всех тех, кого интересуют возможности применения междисциплинарных подходов к изучению эволюции живой природы и общества.
Дестабилизация или хотя бы ее угроза – неизбежная фаза развития любого общества. Настоящая работа... more Дестабилизация или хотя бы ее угроза – неизбежная фаза развития любого общества. Настоящая работа является попыткой учесть, насколько это возможно, влияние некоторых политических и экономических факторов, как внешних, так и внутренних, на возможную дестабилизацию в различных обществах. Монография состоит из десяти глав, объединенных в пять частей, введения, заключения и приложения. В ней органически соединены теоретические исследования связи модернизации и нестабильности, что может вести к революциям, и исследования, которые устанавливают корреляцию между ростом ВВП, типом политического режима, уровнем урбанизации, образования и т. д., с одной стороны, и ростом опасности дестабилизации – с другой. Причем эта корреляция нелинейная и нередко не совпадает со здравым смыслом. В последние годы в Мир-Системе происходят процессы, которые свидетельствуют о том, что она вступает в довольно длительную полосу повышенной турбулентности, и это делает исследование факторов нестабильности еще более актуальным. Причем начавшиеся процессы реконфигурации Мир-Системы с характерными для нее процессами нестабильности захватили не только полупериферийные зоны, но и ядро Мир-Системы. В монографии исследуются причины этих явлений и делаются прогнозы о развитии мирового порядка в ближайшие десятилетия. В целом настоящая монография содержит много интересных фактов, рассуждений и результатов проведенных нами исследований. Она будет полезна не только специалистам, но и всем, кто интересуется процессами дестабилизации и революций, в частности в различных обществах, их причинами, факторами и механизмами. Выход монографии актуализируется и в связи с тем, что в 2017 г. отмечается столетний юбилей Русской революции, оказавшей огромное влияние на весь ход истории в ХХ столетии.
Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространств... more Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространстве и одного из первых в мире трудов по этой тематике, рассматривающего историю формирования глобального связанного мира, а также значимых на глобальном уровне явлений и процессов. Во втором томе этот подход применяется для изучения «долгого XIX века» – периода бурных технологических, социальных, экономических, политических и иных трансформаций глобального мира. Особое внимание уделяется так называемому «золотому веку глобализации» – периоду в конце XIX и начале XX в., когда финансовая, торговая и миграционная связанность глобального мира достигла невиданного прежде масштаба. Авторы надеются, что данное учебное пособие будет представлять интерес не только для студентов, изучающих глобальную историю, и специалистов по глобалистике, но и для широкого круга читателей, интересующихся историей глобального мира.
В 2017 г. исполняется 125 лет со дня рождения выдающегося русского экономиста Н. Д. Кондратьева. ... more В 2017 г. исполняется 125 лет со дня рождения выдающегося русского экономиста Н. Д. Кондратьева. Несмотря на то что Николай Дмитриевич прожил короткую жизнь, он оставил большое наследие, которое во многом остается актуальным и эвристическим для современных исследователей. Это и объясняет название данного юбилейного издания, которое отнюдь не является академическим. Для мира, уже который год переживающего кризис, наступил момент истины – упоение «свободной» экономикой прошло, уступив место разочарованию и усталости от радикального, безудержного либерализма. На смену идет система, еще не получившая своего «изма». Идеи Н. Д. Кондратьева помогают в этом разобраться. В настоящей книге затронут целый комплекс проблем, вполне удачно объединенных под названием «Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности». Монография состоит из четырех частей. Первая часть («Н. Д. Кондратьев: биография, творчество, наследие») посвящена важным или малоизвестным аспектам жизни, творчества и наследия ученого. Вторая часть («Длинные волны, технологическая и инновационная динамика») описывает различные аспекты создания длинноволновой теории и ее применения для анализа исторических и современных экономических и иных процессов. Авторы глав третьей части («Циклы, кризисы, прогнозы») рассматривают различные аспекты изменения в развитии длинного цикла начала XXI в., характеризуют перспективы мирового развития в ближайшие десятилетия, прогнозируя наиболее вероятные точки перелома в экономической и политической ди-намике. Они используют весь спектр идей Н. Д. Кондратьева, в том числе методологи-ческие подходы к анализу сущего и должного; соотношение телеологического и генетического метода исследования и другие его разработки, основы которых он заложил или намеревался заложить в теорию прогнозирования. В четвертой части («Центр – периферия. Процессы модернизации и кризисы») дается анализ современных мир-системных процессов и того, как эти процессы будут преломляться в будущем. Завершает моно-графию Заключение («Приближающийся кризис в свете теории длинных волн»). В нем дан конкретный пример использования прогнозирования кризисов при помощи теории длинных волн.
The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of techn... more The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).
The present volume is the fifth issue of the ‘Evolution’ Yearbook series. Our Yearbooks are desig... more The present volume is the fifth issue of the ‘Evolution’ Yearbook series. Our Yearbooks are designed to present to its readers the widest possible spectrum of subjects and issues: from universal evolutionism to the analysis of particular evolutionary regularities in the development of biological, abiotic, and social systems, culture, cognition, language, etc. The main objective of our Yearbook is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research, within which scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. Global evolution (in connection with the Big History) becomes the main subject of our Yearbook. We strive to arrange each issue in such a way that the line from cosmic evolution to the human future is evident. What is the subject of the present issue of the Yearbook? Similar to the previous issues, it shows some aspects of the evolutionary advance from the earlier phases to the anticipated future of human society. But on the whole, this volume is devoted to different aspects and facts of megaevolution and some universal theories in an attempt to find common ground in the diversity of manifestation of evolution and its forms at different stages of development. So the title of this issue, ‘Evolution and Big History: Dimensions, Trends, and Forecasts’, is fully justified (besides, several papers contribute to the field of Big History). The volume consists of four sections: Dimensions, Trends, and Aspects; Big History's Manifestations; Trends and Forecasts; and Reviews and Information. This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us.
According to the working definition of the International Big History Association, ‘Big History se... more According to the working definition of the International Big History Association, ‘Big History seeks to understand the integrated history of the Cosmos, Earth, Life and Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. In recent years Big History has been developing very fast indeed. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries. Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. The unique approach of Big History, the interdisciplinary genre of history that deals with the grand narrative of 13.8 billion years, has opened up a vast amount of research agendas. Big History brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and merges it with the contemplative realms of philosophy and the humanities. It also provides a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History is a colossal and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompassing all the forms of existence and all timescales. Unsurprisingly, Big History may be presented in very different aspects and facets. In this volume the Big History is presented and discussed in three different ways. In its first part, Big History is explored in terms of methodology, theories of knowledge, as well as showcasing the personal approach of scholars to Big History. The second section comprises such articles that could clarify Big History's main trends and laws. The third part of this book explores the nature of teaching Big History as well as profiling a number of educational methods. This volume will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Astrophysics, Geology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Linguistics and other areas of study.
В монографии исследуются социально-политическое и экономическое развитие Ближнего Востока, Индии ... more В монографии исследуются социально-политическое и экономическое развитие Ближнего Востока, Индии и Китая, пути и модели их вовлеченности в глобальные процессы, изменение их роли в Мир-Системе. В первой части авторы дают общий обзор процессов глобализации в прошлом и настоящем, общий анализ развития Индии, Китая и Ближнего Востока в процессах мировой интеграции и глобализации. Во второй части на фоне исследования глобальной проблемы соотношения исторического и экономического развития Запада и Востока раскрываются причины резкого выхода вперед Европы (Великая дивергенция). Также показано, как зарождался в рамках доминирования дивергенции процесс подъема Востока, который с последней трети ХХ в. перерос в процесс подтягивания в культурно-экономическом плане Востока к Западу (Великая конвергенция). Этот процесс будет определять мировые тренды и в ближайшие десятилетия. В третьей части дается анализ внутренних систем, факторов развития в их тесной и динамичной связи с внешними факторами, процессами глобализации и некоторые прогнозы, касающиеся будущего места рассматриваемых в монографии обществ Ближнего Востока, Индии и Китая. В Заключении рассматриваются вопросы будущей реконфигурации Мир-Системы.
В коллективной монографии представлены результаты исследований, проведенных в рамках проекта РНФ ... more В коллективной монографии представлены результаты исследований, проведенных в рамках проекта РНФ № 14-11-00634 «Математические методы прогнозирования мирового и странового социально-экономического развития». Целью проекта является разработка методологии, математических методов и моделей для анализа и прогнозирования современных макротенденций и циклов экономической, демографической, политической, социальной, культурной и технологической мировой, региональной и национальной динамики в интересах научного обеспечения стратегического планирования в Российской Федерации. В монографию включены материалы по моделированию экономических и политических процессов.
УДК 338 316.42 ББК 65.013 66.4(0) Гринин Леонид Ефимович, Коротаев Андрей Витальевич Ближний Вост... more УДК 338 316.42 ББК 65.013 66.4(0) Гринин Леонид Ефимович, Коротаев Андрей Витальевич Ближний Восток, Индия и Китай в глобализационных процессах. М.: Моск. ред. изд-ва «Учитель», 2016. -496 с.
Перед вами очередной, восьмой выпуск нашего междисциплинарного ежегодника «Эволюция». И вновь на ... more Перед вами очередной, восьмой выпуск нашего междисциплинарного ежегодника «Эволюция». И вновь на его страницах встречаются представители разных областей знания, некоторые из них при этом стремятся охватить единым взглядом весь путь эволюции. Основной задачей нашего ежегодника является формирование междисциплинарного единого поля исследований, в котором ученые разных специализаций могли бы работать в рамках единой или близких парадигм, использовать общую терминологию, искать общие правила, тенденции и закономерности. При этом для выработки такого единого поля необходимо использовать все имеющиеся возможности: теории, законы и методы. Каждый выпуск мы стремимся составить таким образом, чтобы выстроилась некая линия от космической эволюции к будущему человечества. Восьмой выпуск, как и ряд предыдущих, представляет собой определенный срез, показывающий процесс эволюции от космической ее стадии до предполагаемого будущего человеческого общества. В целом выпуск посвящен рассмотрению различных аспектов и срезов мегаэволюции, некоторым общим правилам и теориям, пытающимся найти общее в разнообразии проявления эволюции и ее форм на разных стадиях развития. Поэтому он получил название «Срезы, правила, прогнозы». Здесь по-новому рассматриваются некоторые темы, которые исследовались в наших изданиях ранее, в частности аспекты сингулярности и глобального старения. Данный выпуск ежегодника состоит из четырех разделов. Первый и самый обширный из них – «Аспекты, ритмы и механизмы эволюции». Раздел второй «Эволюционные теории (эволюция в теоретических подходах)» включает четыре статьи. Третий раздел посвящен взгляду в будущее и состоит из трех статей. Завершает выпуск четвертый раздел «Научная жизнь».
В монографии предпринята попытка заглянуть в будущее России и мира на перспективу ближайших 35 ле... more В монографии предпринята попытка заглянуть в будущее России и мира на перспективу ближайших 35 лет. В книге представлены четыре раздела. В первом разделе рассматриваются существующие подходы к прогнозированию будущего, излагается используемый авторами подход. Второй раздел посвящен прогнозу того, какой будет первая половина XXI в., рассматриваются вероятные сценарии развития Мир-cистемы и России. В третьем разделе намечены пути к обретению социальной устойчивости, рассмотрены психологические и политические механизмы обеспечения социального согласия и мотивации к труду. В четвертом разделе на основе наиболее вероятных вариантов мировой динамики в 2016–2050 гг. авторы по-старались определить, какие экономические, идеологические и управленческие трансформации необходимо провести в России для реализации благоприятного сценария. В приложениях представлены материалы, в которых более детально изложены частные вопросы, приводятся методический аппарат и математические модели, на основе которых делаются выводы. Работа над книгой проводилась в рамках исследований по проекту Российского научного фонда № 14-11-00634 «Математические методы прогнозирования мирового и странового социально-экономического развития» под руководством академика В. А. Садовничего и иностранного члена РАН А. А. Акаева.
Для мира, уже который год переживающего кризис, наступил момент истины – упоение «свободной» экон... more Для мира, уже который год переживающего кризис, наступил момент истины – упоение «свободной» экономикой прошло, уступив место разочарованию и усталости от радикального, безудержного либерализма. На смену идет система, еще не получившая своего «изма». В свете этого особое значение приобретает теория длинных волн, созданная Н. Д. Кондратьевым, которая служит важнейшим инструментом для адекватного понимания текущих мир- системных процессов. Мало того, эта теория в совокупности с теорией смены технологических укладов является одной из немногих в экономической науке, которая позволяет строить научно обоснованные прогнозы. В настоящей монографии затронут целый комплекс проблем, вполне удачно объединенных под названием «Кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн». Задачей авторов было более точно установить влияние на экономические подъемы и кризисы объективных и субъективных факторов циклов разной периодичности; выявить влияние инноваций на экономическую динамику на разных фазах циклов; использовать теорию длинных волн в совокупности с теорией смены технологических укладов для построения научно обоснованных прогнозов. Так или иначе авторы также касались проблемы органичной связи теории длинных (кондратьевских) волн с теорией средне-срочных (жюгляровских) циклов. Ведь экономический кризис (крах, спад и депрессия) – это наиболее драматичная часть именно среднесрочного экономического цикла. Кри- зисы всегда являются результатом предшествующего активного роста, поскольку этот рост неиз- бежно создает структурные напряжения не только в экономике, но и в обществе в целом (институ- ты общества рассчитаны на определенный объем и масштаб явлений и процессов). Но, разумеется, все кризисы при некоторых сходствах проходят по-разному. Кроме того, заметно отличаются они в зависимости от того, на какой – повышательной или понижательной – фазе длинной кондратьев- ской волны они случаются. В монографии также затрагиваются и очень важные вопросы связи государств и экономического развития, проблемы возникновения социально-политических кризисов в процессе модернизации, другие аспекты социально-политической нестабильности в разных регионах мира.
Книга рассказывает о наиболее фундаментальных закономерностях, лежащих в основе крупномасштабных ... more Книга рассказывает о наиболее фундаментальных закономерностях, лежащих в основе крупномасштабных эволюционных изменений в природе и обществе. Авторы – философ Л. Е. Гринин, биолог А. В. Марков и историк А. В. Коротаев – рассматривают свыше 70 правил и законов макроэволюции, прослеживающихся в развитии живой природы и человеческого общества. Выявлены как общие, так и специфичные для каждого из двух типов макроэволюции черты, которые проиллюстрированы большим количеством примеров, взятых из разных областей эволюционной биологии, истории и социологии. На богатом фактическом материале сделан сравнительный анализ черт сходства и различия биологической и социаль- ной макроэволюции; показаны их преемственность и закономерный характер по- явления у одного из видов животных способности к ускоренному развитию на основе социальной макроэволюции. Монография снабжена глоссарием. Книга рассчитана на широкий круг читателей: социологов, историков, философов, биологов, а также всех тех, кого интересуют возможности применения междисциплинарных подходов к изучению эволюции живой природы и общества.
В сборнике "Раннее государство, его альтернативы и аналоги" представлены как традиционные, так и ... more В сборнике "Раннее государство, его альтернативы и аналоги" представлены как традиционные, так и нетрадиционные точки зрения на эволюцию государственности. Но в целом, материалы, собранные в этой книге, убедительно демонстрируют большое разнообразие путей к государственности, а также показывают, что трансформация сложных и даже сверхсложных обществ в государство происходила далеко не во всех случаях. Многолинейность и альтернативность социальной эволюции, выражающаяся как в многообразии путей к государству, так и в существовании наряду с ранними государствами их альтернатив и аналогов, могут рассматриваться как общие идеи, пронизывающие большую часть статей данного сборника.
The present article attempts at combining Big History potential with the po-tential of Evolutiona... more The present article attempts at combining Big History potential with the po-tential of Evolutionary Studies. It does not only analyze the history of the Cosmos. It studies similarities between evolutionary laws, principles, and mechanisms at various levels and phases of Big History. Such an approach opens up some new perspectives for our understanding of evolution and Big History, their driving forces, vectors, and trends; it creates a consolidated field for interdisciplinary research. Of special importance is the point that many principles, patterns, regularities, and rules of evolution, which we tend to find relevant only for the biological and social levels of evolution, may be also applied to the cosmic phase of evolution. This is not so surpris-ing, since the formation, life-cycle and renewal of stars, galaxies, as well as other celestial bodies is the longest evolutionary process that took place in the Universe.
В статье не только сделан анализ исламизма как социально-политического течения, но и рассмотрены ... more В статье не только сделан анализ исламизма как социально-политического течения, но и рассмотрены исторические и цивилизационные особенности Ближнего и Среднего Востока, которые способствовали тому, что именно здесь исламизм возник и проявляет себя особенно заметно. Показаны исторические, идеологические и социально-политические причины его появления и широкого распространения в большинстве исламских стран. Представлен очерк исторического развития исламизма, причин его побед в 1970-1980-е гг., подъема Исламского возрождения. Исламизм является одним из самых сложных социальных феноменов настоящего времени, это многоликое, меняющееся и неоднородное движение, в рамках которого идет очень напряженная идейная и политическая борьба. В статье обращается внимание на глубокие корни и широкую социальную поддержку исламизма населением, его многочисленные общественные функции. Дано определение исламизма и его основных течений (умеренного и радикального). Объяснены причины его многоликости, показано, что умеренный исламизм в отличие от радикального стремится интегрироваться в легальное политическое пространство, а потому может быть союзником в борьбе с радикальным исламизмом, так же как и сильные светские политические режимы.
Исламизм является одним из важнейших феноменов нашего времени, он оказывает сильное влияние на мн... more Исламизм является одним из важнейших феноменов нашего времени, он оказывает сильное влияние на многие мировые и глобальные процессы. В мусульманском мире почти не осталось стран, где бы исламизм не был влиятельным и устойчивым фактором политики. Понять современные исламские (особенно арабские) общества без учета роли исламизма как одновременно идеологии, культурной среды, образа жизни и руководства к действию невозможно. А без этого с учетом огромной и возрастающей доли мусульман в мире нельзя понять ни современные, ни будущие векторы глобализации. Все это делает тему соотношения глобализации и исламизма очень актуальной. Между тем она исследована явно недостаточно. В статье мы хоте-ли бы наметить некоторые контуры и вехи этого взаимовлияния. Исламизм-один из самых сложных социальных феноменов настоящего времени, многоликое, меняющееся и неоднородное движение, в рамках которого идет очень напряженная идейная и политическая борьба. Мы надеемся, что статья позволит читателю получить некоторое представление об этом важном явлении современного мира, развитие которого затрагивает интересы миллиардов людей всех стран, религий и убеждений. При этом мы делаем акцент на то, что крайне важно различать радикальный и умеренный исламизм, который может стать позитивным и перспективным крылом политической системы исламских стран. Мы полагаем, что уменьшить опасность радикального, террористического исламизма одной только силовой борьбой с ним невозможно. Можно надеяться, что он пойдет на убыль в случае, если удастся разделить его с умеренным исламизмом и сделать последний более респектабельным, открытым, вовлеченным в нормальную политическую жизнь. Ключевые слова: глобализация, исламизм, радикальный исламизм, уме-ренный исламизм, фундаментализм, Исламское возрождение, Ближний Восток, исламские общества, политизированный ислам, Мир-Система, нефте-доллары. I
In the present article Kondratieff waves theory is considered in comparison with the theory of p... more In the present article Kondratieff waves theory is considered in comparison with the theory of production revolutions which analyzes the regularities of the major technological breakthroughs in history. Both theories analyze the processes of cyclic nature related to the innovative technological development of the World-System. The mutual comparison of both theories allows the author to make important clarifications in understanding of the long-wave dynamics as a whole, as well as to give relevant explanations of the peculiarities of the unfolding of each of the five waves and their phases, to make forecasts about the sixth wave and the development of technologies of the sixth technological mode. The special attention is paid to the analysis of aspects and limitations of the theory of technological modes, as it is used by many researchers to explain the causes of the long-wave dynamics.
The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among numerous concerns ov... more The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among numerous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euros, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the inflation in the Western countries still remains low.
On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from ‘the Japanese disease’, and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, albeit to a lesser extent, has signs of the disease as well. As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on our analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we suppose that the new crisis will begin in 2020–2021. We also suppose that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy will continue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises. The paper also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave (2020 – the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis and discusses possible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.
There are researchers whose problems and theories remain relevant for a long time after their dea... more There are researchers whose problems and theories remain relevant for a long time after their death. Nikolai Kondratieff, an outstanding Russian economist, of course, is among them. He is one of those whose name is well-known around the world. On the occasion of the 125th anniversary of Kondratieff's birth and the 80th anniversary of his death which we commemorated respectively in 2017 and 2018 it is all the more important to highlight the relevance of his ideas. The papers of this issue are dedicated to the link between Kondratieff's ideas and the problems of modern economy and economic science.
The chiefdom concept is one of the most productive in social anthropology and political evolutio... more The chiefdom concept is one of the most productive in social anthropology and political evolution. It helps to deeply understand the process of complication of society's structure and the development path from stateless society to early states. However, even when states spread everywhere, chiefdoms still remained political and administrative actors. At present one can find some features of chiefdoms in developing countries (e.g., in some regions of Africa) and in different kinds of organizations especially in illegal and terrorist ones. Thus, using chiefdom theories one can clarify a few basics of such kind of organization as well. Therefore, it makes sense to show how such chiefdom-like structures preserve and develop the features of ancient polities within them.
Thus, in the modern world, along with states, one can find numerous alternative social and political organizations, which, to a greater or lesser extent, have some features that are similar to certain ancient polities. How and why is this possible? We hope that this paper will shed some light on this question. However, it requires and deserves further study.
The present contribution is devoted to some aspects of history and evolution of the early Solar S... more The present contribution is devoted to some aspects of history and evolution of the early Solar System. The origin of the Sun, Earth, other planets and its satellites has long been a matter of great concern for people. Over the past few decades astronomers and cosmologists have considerably advanced in the perception of the structure, history, and evolution of the Solar System. However, one can hardly speak about a proper narrative here; we more often work with hypotheses. The present paper is structured as follows. First, it outlines the history of formation of the Solar System in the first billion years of its existence, when the most considerable changes took place. Then while describing certain formative processes we show the opportunities to define them in terms of evolutionary laws and rules. Of course, this paper presents only a few such laws and rules. We suppose that the present study will be of interest to a reader in two ways. First, there are quite a few consistent and brief surveys of the Solar System history accounting the latest achievements in astrophysics and cosmology. Meanwhile, they are very important and productive for theorizing part of Big History. Second, the discussion employing the general evolutionary laws and rules allows defining some common features in the formation of the Solar System and especially of its planetary system which are characteristic for every level and stage of Big History. This brings us to the idea of the integrity of Big History not only in historical and systemic terms but also with respect to its integrity in detecting general laws, patterns and mechanisms.
From the very beginning, our Yearbook ‘Evolution’ has been devoted to searching for the common g... more From the very beginning, our Yearbook ‘Evolution’ has been devoted to searching for the common ground at different levels of development, to gradual elaboration of a mega-evolutionary paradigm (see Grinin et al. 2009), as well as to considering features of various evolutionary phenomena. As a matter of fact, in speaking of similarities, one should take into account the most important characteristics of phenomena and systems – their uniqueness. At the same time the common and unique sustain complex interaction. In particular, the uniqueness is never overall, it is always realized only in several aspects important in evolutionary terms. At the same time, the deeper we comprehend the balance between general development and general evolutionary trends, on the one hand, and breakthroughs to new levels of organization, on the other, the more clearly we perceive that an evolutionary breakthrough which occurred as a result of emerging unique conditions is never an element of randomness but always occurs due to a huge and consistent evolutionary advance in a certain direction. Thus, the new emerges far from inevitably. For the emergence of something new a number of peculiarities and coincidences of complicated conditions is required; at that, it is always difficult to conceive whether all these conditions were necessary or some were contingencies of minor importance. Therefore, the transition to a new evolutionary level is such a rare and important event. And still the gap between the levels is not as obvious as it sometimes seems.
The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of the human history. W... more The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of the human history. We introduce a new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution. We also describe the direction of technological transformations, discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. Our analysis of technological evolution mainly focuses on the second half of the 20th century. We present a detailed analysis of the latest technological revolution which we denote as ‘Сybernetic’, and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the 21st century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano, bio, robotic, IT and cognitive technologies). Today we are at the threshold of post-human revolution, the era of an intensive impact on the human body. The authors consider the directions of this revolution such as considerable life extension, organ replacement, BCIs, robotics, genome editing, etc. It is very important to understand the mechanisms of technological development and to measure the possible risks arising from them.
This article offers an analysis and mathematical modeling of the influence of one of the major fa... more This article offers an analysis and mathematical modeling of the influence of one of the major factors of the World System macrodynamics throughout most part of its history (since the ‘urban revolution’) – the factor of interaction of civilizations with their barbarian periphery. The proposed mathematical model is intended to describe possible influence of interaction between civilizational core of the World System and its barbarian periphery on the formation of the specific curve of the world urbanization dynamics. It simulates completion of the phase transition, behavior of the system in the attraction basin and beginning of the phase transition to the attraction basin of the new attractor and is aimed to identify the role of the factor of interaction between the civilizational core and barbarian periphery in the formation of attractor effect during the completion of phase transition, that is for clarification of the reason why there was observed not only slowdown of growth rates of the main indicators of the World System development after completion of phase transitions during its development, but also their falling with the subsequent temporary stabilization near some equilibrium level. Achievements of modern barbarology, including the understanding of complexity of the barbarian periphery itself and its heterogeneity are considered. The basic principle of the proposed dynamic model is that sizes, power and level of complexity in realization of external policy functions in nomadic unions (empires) closely correspond to sizes, power and level of political culture and activity of the core states with which nomads constantly had to do (this point has been established in works of the known experts in nomadic studies). Various alternatives are shown in the model, when depending on power and size of one of the two components of the system ‘civilization – barbarian periphery’ studied by us, another one also changes significantly as it has to respond to the challenge properly, or can make less efforts feeling no threat or resistance. This principle is observed throughout the long period of the history of the World System. It is shown that interaction between the civilizational center and barbarian periphery really can explain some characteristic features of the World System dynamics in the 4th millennium BCE – the 2nd millennium CE. The ways of further development of the model are outlined.
The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from si... more The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from singularity (i.e., a state of an infinitely small quantity and infinitely high concentration of matter) is still very popular today. It was one of the main postulates of the Big Bang theory that completely formed in the 1960s–1970s. However, at present this idea as well as the Big Bang theory is outdated, although it is still shared by many scientists. Being widespread since the end of the 1970s the Inflation theory appears more modern. The main reason for the emergence of the Inflation theory was that the Big Bang theory could not satisfactorily explain a number of the contemporary parameters of the Universe.
The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
Our Yearbook ‘History and Mathematics’ has already celebrated its 10th anniversary and has confid... more Our Yearbook ‘History and Mathematics’ has already celebrated its 10th anniversary and has confidently entered its second decade. In this regard it will be quite reasonable to try to extend the scope of its research field. Therefore, this issue is designed in an unusual manner while still preserving the relevance for our approach (see about it below). It also makes sense to remind the reader of the various aspects that were touched upon in the previous issues.
The first issue of the Yearbook entitled ‘Analyzing and Modeling Global Development’ came out in 2006 (see Grinin, de Munck, and Korotayev 2006). This volume initiated a series of edited volumes dedicated to various aspects of the application of mathematical methods to the study of history and society. It comprised articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales: from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world. On the other hand, all the articles of this issue were dedicated to the analysis, periodization, or modeling of global development. It was shown that the mathematical modeling of historical macroprocesses suggests a fresh approach to the periodization issue. The authors studied these problems from different perspectives (technological, economic, demographic, sociostructural, cultural-psychological, linguistic). New quantitative insights on the dynamics of contemporary processes were presented. These insights allowed the authors to make a number of important forecasts on this basis.
Although there occurred numerous revolutions in the ancient world and in the Middle Ages, their h... more Although there occurred numerous revolutions in the ancient world and in the Middle Ages, their historical role was relatively small. Starting from the Modern period, the role of revolutions as historical engines increased dramatically, which was connected with the started industrial era and emerging technologies, with development of capitalist relations, to which the revolutions opened the way in the struggle against absolutism and obsolete social relations. The article considers the role of revolutions in the long-term historical process and the World-System's development as well as analyzes the changing importance of revolutions from ancient times to the present day. The author shows why the nature of revolutions has changed and their significance has sharply increased since the beginning of the sixteenth century, that is with the started Early Modern period and the Industrial revolution. The author also explains how and why the role of revolutions as the most important driving force of historical process and progress started to decline against the background of the increasing role of more legitimate and less expensive forms of societal transformations. The contemporary role of revolutions and their usage as a geopolitical weapon are also examined. The author also defines the correlation between developing technologies, globalization, and the role of revolution in historical process. While considering these aspects he also addresses some points related to the theory of revolution and makes some predictions regarding the future role of revolutions for the development of societies and the World-System in general.
Islamism appears one of the most important phenomena of our times and it greatly affects many gl... more Islamism appears one of the most important phenomena of our times and it greatly affects many global processes. In the Muslim world one can hardly find a country where Islamism would not be an influential and stable political factor. It seems impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (especially Arab) societies without taking into account the role of Islamism as simultaneously an ideology, a cultural environment, and a mode of life and guideline to follow. And if one keeps in mind the increasingly large share of the Muslim population in the world, it appears impossible to ignore their impact in current and future globalization trends. All these make the correlation between globalization and Islamism an urgent issue which is, nevertheless, understudied. In the present article we would like to outline some patterns and landmarks of this mutual interaction. Currently, Islamism is one of the most complicated social phenomena; it is a multi-faceted, changing and heterogeneous movement within whose framework there unfolds an intensive ideological and political struggle. We hope the present article will help the reader to obtain some idea about this important phenomenon of the modern world whose development involves interests of billions of people of all countries, religions and views. At that, we emphasize that it is vital to distinguish between radical and moderate types of Islamism; the latter is promising with respect to becoming a positive and promising wing of political system in Muslim countries. We suppose that it is impossible to eliminate the dangers of radical and terrorist Islamism only by force. One may hope to achieve this goal if to separate it from moderate Islamism while the latter should become more respectable, open and involved in common political life.
Мир, в котором мы живем, быстро изменяется, хотя и далеко не всегда к лучшему. Но таким противор... more Мир, в котором мы живем, быстро изменяется, хотя и далеко не всегда к лучшему. Но таким противоречивым развитие в истории человечества было во все времена. Тем более важно попытаться заглянуть за горизонт сегодняшних событий, чтобы понять, каким может быть завтра. В настоящей статье в систематическом виде даются некоторые прогнозы технологического, политического, а также социально-экономического развития мира. Представлены краткосрочные (10–15 лет), среднесрочные (20–50 лет) и долгосрочные (50–100 лет) прогнозы, которые опираются на теории длинных циклов и соответствующих им технологических укладов, а также на теории глобального старения, принципов производства и производственных революций.
В годы президентства Д. Трампа внутренние проблемы США, а также негативное влияние американской п... more В годы президентства Д. Трампа внутренние проблемы США, а также негативное влияние американской политической системы на внешнюю политику и престиж Соединенных Штатов Америки стали как никогда очевидными. То, что накапливалось десятилетиями: высокомерие США по отношению к остальному миру, которое подрывает позиции Америки как лидера Мир-Системы; то, что США потребляют больше, чем создают, накапливая государственный долг и отрицательный торговый баланс; архаичность их политической системы и многое другое, – теперь переходит на качественно новый уровень. Борьба все большей части мирового сообщества с растущим эгоизмом Соединенных Штатов, не желающих признавать общие интересы, уже длительное время составляет главную интригу современного глобального противоречия. В настоящий момент фронт противоречий расширился за счет игнорирования американцами интересов своих союзников. «Сделать Америку снова великой» – этот лозунг Трампа откровенно говорит о потере прежнего уровня лидерства и о том, что ситуация в мире будет обостряться. В этой связи важно увидеть, какова материальная база могущества современной Америки, позволяет ли она вернуть стране величие. В статье анализируется семь (реальных и потенциальных) слабостей США, часть из которых, однако, в настоящее время как раз поддерживает их могущество. Но рано или поздно эти слабости станут причиной глубокого кризиса и не позволят Соединенным Штатам сохранить свое лидирующее положение.
В настоящей статье в систематическом виде даются некоторые прогнозы технологического, политическ... more В настоящей статье в систематическом виде даются некоторые прогнозы технологического, политического, а также социально-экономического развития мира. Представлены краткосрочные (10–15 лет), среднесрочные (20–50 лет) и долгосрочные (50–100 лет) прогнозы, которые опираются на теории длинных циклов и соответствующих им технологических укладов, а также на теории принципов производства и производственных революций.
В статье дан анализ исламизма как социально-политического течения, рассмотрены его многочисленны... more В статье дан анализ исламизма как социально-политического течения, рассмотрены его многочисленные социальные функции, широкая общественная поддержка, глубокие народные корни, объяснены причины его многоликости. Показано, что умеренный исламизм в отличие от радикального стремится интегрироваться в легальное политическое пространство, а потому может быть союзником в борьбе с радикальным исламизмом, так же как и сильные светские политические режимы. Рассматривается история появления исламизма с конца XIX в.: он возник как ответ на западную империалистическую экспансию, разгром Османской империи и отмену османского халифата. Началом организованного исламистского движения стало возникновение «Братьев-мусульман» в Египте в конце 1920-х гг. Показаны основные вехи развития исламизма, причины так называемого Исламского возрождения с конца 1970-х гг. и роста исламского терроризма, а также современное состояние исламизма.
Исламизм является одним из важнейших феноменов нашего времени, он оказывает сильное влияние на мн... more Исламизм является одним из важнейших феноменов нашего времени, он оказывает сильное влияние на многие мировые и глобальные процессы. В мусульманском мире почти не осталось стран, где бы исламизм не был влиятельным и устойчивым фактором политики. Понять современные исламские (особенно арабские) общества без учета роли исламизма как одновременно идеологии, культурной среды, образа жизни и руководства к действию невозможно. А без этого с учетом огромной и возрастающей доли мусульман в мире нельзя понять ни современные, ни будущие векторы глобализации. Все это делает тему соотношения глобализации и исламизма очень актуальной. Между тем она исследована явно недостаточно. В статье мы хоте-ли бы наметить некоторые контуры и вехи этого взаимовлияния. Исламизм-один из самых сложных социальных феноменов настоящего времени, многоликое, меняющееся и неоднородное движение, в рамках которого идет очень напряженная идейная и политическая борьба. Мы надеемся, что статья позволит читателю получить некоторое представление об этом важном явлении современного мира, развитие которого затрагивает интересы миллиардов людей всех стран, религий и убеждений. При этом мы делаем акцент на то, что крайне важно различать радикальный и умеренный исламизм, который может стать позитивным и перспективным крылом политической системы исламских стран. Мы полагаем, что уменьшить опасность радикального, террористического исламизма одной только силовой борьбой с ним невозможно. Можно надеяться, что он пойдет на убыль в случае, если удастся разделить его с умеренным исламизмом и сделать последний более респектабельным, открытым, вовлеченным в нормальную политическую жизнь. Islamism appears one of the most important phenomena of our times and it greatly affects many global processes. In the Muslim world one can hardly find a country where Islamism would not be an influential and stable political factor. It seems impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (especially Arab) societies without taking into account the role of Islamism as simultaneously an ideology, a cultural environment, and a mode of life and guideline to follow. And if one keeps in mind the increasingly large share of the Muslim population in the world, it appears impossible to ignore their impact in current and future globalization trends. All
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Papers by Leonid Grinin
The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic, in particular as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar
historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century
Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of
the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World
System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus,
we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems
of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In
otherwords,within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag
far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase,
the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also
suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political
component started in the Arab World.
and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole
world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological
breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as
the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect
the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce
the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological
changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine
and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments
that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing
elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful
use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees)
of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing
countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the
developed states.
multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history
which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and
of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic
and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and
Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multidisciplinary
approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to
form a global view of various processes.
Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential
of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present
volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis
to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words,
‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection
the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales –
from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects
our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics,
Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the
studies of different spheres and epochs.
This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions
includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the
peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity
and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic
and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III)
Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns
modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the
second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations).
We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians,
as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the
second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical
model capable of describing important features of both biological
and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical
macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth
arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between
demographic growth and technological development. This is more
or less identical with the working of the collective learning
mechanism. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy
with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic
character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by
non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity
growth and the complexity of community structure, suggesting
the presence within the biosphere of a certain analogue of the
collective learning mechanism. We discuss how such positive
feedback mechanisms can be modelled mathematically.
современная наука и история земного шара (от лат. globus – шар), жизни и человечества.
the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the
proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic
characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast
certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the
following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the
World System centre mean? Will there be a leader in the future World System?
Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmentation continue to worsen?
How can national sovereignty be transformed?
The year 2017 was marked not only by the 100th anniversary of the Russian revolution but also by five hundred years passed from the start of the Reformation in Germany. It is just from the Reformation that one can account for revolutions in Europe and world. The first part of the article analyzes the range of transformations of revolutions in the course of historical development; in particular, the ways their role in the world history, social basis, revolutionary ideologies and practices and used information means would change over these centuries. It is also shown which important changes in revolutionary practices and the very essence of revolution were brought by every great revolution. While considering these aspects and also in the second part of the article the author touches some issues connected with the theory of revolutions. In particular, the author classifies revolutions starting from religious to modernization ones and considers some important causes of revolutions. In the final part, the author speaks about how and why revolutions starting from a certain moment are more actively used as geopolitical means.
The article presents the analysis of the role of revolutions in historical process. It is shown why the revolutions were inevitable in the Modern era and what is their role in societal development as well as why the latter started to mismatch the existing political and social institutions. On the one hand, revolutions are considered as common phenomena for a certain stage of society’s development, and on the other hand, the author analyses why and how the role of revolutions considerably changes in different periods of history as well as explains why revolutions from a driving force finally become an expensive and not productive social experiment. He also makes an attempt to elaborate some aspects of the theory of revolution (a revolutionary situation, role of society’s ideology and psychology over certain periods etc.).
The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic, in particular as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar
historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century
Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of
the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World
System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus,
we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems
of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In
otherwords,within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag
far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase,
the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also
suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political
component started in the Arab World.
and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole
world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological
breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as
the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect
the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce
the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological
changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine
and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments
that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing
elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful
use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees)
of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing
countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the
developed states.
multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history
which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and
of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic
and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and
Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multidisciplinary
approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to
form a global view of various processes.
Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential
of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present
volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis
to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words,
‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection
the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales –
from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects
our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics,
Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the
studies of different spheres and epochs.
This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions
includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the
peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity
and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic
and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III)
Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns
modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the
second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations).
We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians,
as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the
second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical
model capable of describing important features of both biological
and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical
macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth
arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between
demographic growth and technological development. This is more
or less identical with the working of the collective learning
mechanism. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy
with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic
character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by
non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity
growth and the complexity of community structure, suggesting
the presence within the biosphere of a certain analogue of the
collective learning mechanism. We discuss how such positive
feedback mechanisms can be modelled mathematically.
современная наука и история земного шара (от лат. globus – шар), жизни и человечества.
the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the
proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic
characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast
certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the
following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the
World System centre mean? Will there be a leader in the future World System?
Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmentation continue to worsen?
How can national sovereignty be transformed?
The year 2017 was marked not only by the 100th anniversary of the Russian revolution but also by five hundred years passed from the start of the Reformation in Germany. It is just from the Reformation that one can account for revolutions in Europe and world. The first part of the article analyzes the range of transformations of revolutions in the course of historical development; in particular, the ways their role in the world history, social basis, revolutionary ideologies and practices and used information means would change over these centuries. It is also shown which important changes in revolutionary practices and the very essence of revolution were brought by every great revolution. While considering these aspects and also in the second part of the article the author touches some issues connected with the theory of revolutions. In particular, the author classifies revolutions starting from religious to modernization ones and considers some important causes of revolutions. In the final part, the author speaks about how and why revolutions starting from a certain moment are more actively used as geopolitical means.
The article presents the analysis of the role of revolutions in historical process. It is shown why the revolutions were inevitable in the Modern era and what is their role in societal development as well as why the latter started to mismatch the existing political and social institutions. On the one hand, revolutions are considered as common phenomena for a certain stage of society’s development, and on the other hand, the author analyses why and how the role of revolutions considerably changes in different periods of history as well as explains why revolutions from a driving force finally become an expensive and not productive social experiment. He also makes an attempt to elaborate some aspects of the theory of revolution (a revolutionary situation, role of society’s ideology and psychology over certain periods etc.).
Первая книга была посвящена космической эволюции и истории от Большого взрыва 13,8 млрд лет назад до формирования Солнечной системы (4,57 млрд лет назад). Вторая книга – эволюции и истории ранней Солнечной системы в ее первый миллиард лет (от зарождения до конца поздней тяжелой бомбардировки метеоритами и установления орбит планет).
Третья книга включает довольно подробное описание планет и части спутников Солнечной системы, а также их 4,5-миллиардную историю и эволюцию в сравнении между собой и с эволюцией Земли. Важно отметить, что подобных исследований, которые бы представляли историю и эволюцию планет и спутников Солнечной системы в комплексе, с хронологией, сравнением истории планет в синхронных срезах, нет.
В этом, а также и в некоторых других отношениях данная книга является уникальной. Помимо истории планет и планетных тел нашей Солнечной системы, в этой книге также представлена краткая история химической эволюции – от зарождения первых атомов во Вселенной до абиогенеза на Земле, то есть этапа преджизни и формирования предпосылок для появления первых живых организмов. Раздел о химической эволюции очень важен для понимания как истории жизни (поскольку химическая абиогенная эволюция – это переход от косной к живой материи), так и истории Земли (геологической эволюции).
Книга будет интересна и полезна всем, кто интересуется проблемами космологии, эволюции и философии мироздания, кого волнуют проблемы устройства мира, тем, кто работает на стыке междисциплинарных проблем и хочет быть в курсе современных научных достижений. Она написана в достаточно популярной манере, но в то же время опирается на серьезные научные исследования, то есть рассчитана как на специалистов, так и на широкий круг читателей.
Мы надеемся, что данный выпуск ежегодника будет полезен как специалистам, так и широкому кругу читателей, интересующихся глобальными процессами, кризисами, прогнозами мирового развития.
The subtitle of the volume is ‘Global Evolution, Historical Globalistics and Globalization Studies’ which reflects the contents. The present issue brings together a variety of contributions devoted to mega- and global evolution (Part I); historical globalistics (Part II); globalization and glocalization (Parts III–IV). Besides, Part IV comprises some issues on the view in the future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes.
The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues
явления у одного из видов животных способности к ускоренному развитию на
основе социальной макроэволюции. Монография снабжена глоссарием.
Книга рассчитана на широкий круг читателей: социологов, историков, фи-
лософов, биологов, а также всех тех, кого интересуют возможности применения междисциплинарных подходов к изучению эволюции живой природы и общества.
В последние годы в Мир-Системе происходят процессы, которые свидетельствуют о том, что она вступает в довольно длительную полосу повышенной турбулентности, и это делает исследование факторов нестабильности еще более актуальным. Причем начавшиеся процессы реконфигурации Мир-Системы с характерными для нее процессами нестабильности захватили не только полупериферийные зоны, но и ядро Мир-Системы. В монографии исследуются причины этих явлений и делаются прогнозы о развитии мирового порядка в ближайшие десятилетия.
В целом настоящая монография содержит много интересных фактов, рассуждений и результатов проведенных нами исследований. Она будет полезна не только специалистам, но и всем, кто интересуется процессами дестабилизации и революций, в частности в различных обществах, их причинами, факторами и механизмами. Выход монографии актуализируется и в связи с тем, что в 2017 г. отмечается столетний юбилей Русской революции, оказавшей огромное влияние на весь ход истории в ХХ столетии.
Авторы надеются, что данное учебное пособие будет представлять интерес не только для студентов, изучающих глобальную историю, и специалистов по глобалистике, но и для широкого круга читателей, интересующихся историей глобального мира.
В настоящей книге затронут целый комплекс проблем, вполне удачно объединенных под названием «Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности». Монография состоит из четырех частей. Первая часть («Н. Д. Кондратьев: биография, творчество, наследие») посвящена важным или малоизвестным аспектам жизни, творчества и наследия ученого. Вторая часть («Длинные волны, технологическая и инновационная динамика») описывает различные аспекты создания длинноволновой теории и ее применения для анализа исторических и современных экономических и иных процессов. Авторы глав третьей части («Циклы, кризисы, прогнозы») рассматривают различные аспекты изменения в развитии длинного цикла начала XXI в., характеризуют перспективы мирового развития в ближайшие десятилетия, прогнозируя наиболее вероятные точки перелома в экономической и политической ди-намике. Они используют весь спектр идей Н. Д. Кондратьева, в том числе методологи-ческие подходы к анализу сущего и должного; соотношение телеологического и генетического метода исследования и другие его разработки, основы которых он заложил или намеревался заложить в теорию прогнозирования. В четвертой части («Центр – периферия. Процессы модернизации и кризисы») дается анализ современных мир-системных процессов и того, как эти процессы будут преломляться в будущем. Завершает моно-графию Заключение («Приближающийся кризис в свете теории длинных волн»). В нем дан конкретный пример использования прогнозирования кризисов при помощи теории длинных волн.
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).
What is the subject of the present issue of the Yearbook? Similar to the previous issues, it shows some aspects of the evolutionary advance from the earlier phases to the anticipated future of human society. But on the whole, this volume is devoted to different aspects and facts of megaevolution and some universal theories in an attempt to find common ground in the diversity of manifestation of evolution and its forms at different stages of development. So the title of this issue, ‘Evolution and Big History: Dimensions, Trends, and Forecasts’, is fully justified (besides, several papers contribute to the field of Big History).
The volume consists of four sections: Dimensions, Trends, and Aspects; Big History's Manifestations; Trends and Forecasts; and Reviews and Information.
This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us.
Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. In recent years Big History has been developing very fast indeed. Big History courses are taught
in the schools and universities of several dozen countries. Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. The unique approach of Big History, the
interdisciplinary genre of history that deals with the grand narrative of 13.8 billion years, has opened up a vast amount of research agendas. Big History brings together constantly
updated information from the scientific disciplines and merges it with the contemplative realms of philosophy and the humanities. It also provides a connection between the past,
present, and future. Big History is a colossal and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompassing all the forms of existence and all timescales. Unsurprisingly, Big History
may be presented in very different aspects and facets. In this volume the Big History is presented and discussed in three different ways. In its first part, Big History is explored in terms
of methodology, theories of knowledge, as well as showcasing the personal approach of scholars to Big History. The second section comprises such articles that could clarify Big
History's main trends and laws. The third part of this book explores the nature of teaching Big History as well as profiling a number of educational methods. This volume will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems
and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Astrophysics, Geology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Linguistics and other areas of study.
Основной задачей нашего ежегодника является формирование междисциплинарного единого поля исследований, в котором ученые разных специализаций
могли бы работать в рамках единой или близких парадигм, использовать общую терминологию, искать общие правила, тенденции и закономерности. При этом для выработки такого единого поля необходимо использовать все имеющиеся возможности: теории, законы и методы. Каждый выпуск мы стремимся составить таким образом, чтобы выстроилась некая линия от космической эволюции к будущему человечества.
Восьмой выпуск, как и ряд предыдущих, представляет собой определенный срез, показывающий процесс эволюции от космической ее стадии до предполагаемого будущего человеческого общества. В целом выпуск посвящен рассмотрению различных аспектов и срезов мегаэволюции, некоторым общим правилам и теориям, пытающимся найти общее в разнообразии проявления эволюции и ее форм на разных стадиях развития. Поэтому он получил название «Срезы, правила, прогнозы». Здесь по-новому рассматриваются некоторые темы, которые исследовались
в наших изданиях ранее, в частности аспекты сингулярности и глобального старения. Данный выпуск ежегодника состоит из четырех разделов. Первый и самый обширный из них – «Аспекты, ритмы и механизмы эволюции». Раздел второй «Эволюционные теории (эволюция в теоретических подходах)» включает четыре статьи. Третий раздел посвящен взгляду в будущее и состоит из трех статей. Завершает выпуск четвертый раздел «Научная жизнь».
Работа над книгой проводилась в рамках исследований по проекту Российского научного фонда № 14-11-00634 «Математические методы прогнозирования мирового и странового социально-экономического развития» под руководством академика В. А. Садовничего и иностранного члена РАН А. А. Акаева.
В свете этого особое значение приобретает теория длинных волн, созданная Н. Д. Кондратьевым, которая служит важнейшим инструментом для адекватного понимания текущих мир-
системных процессов. Мало того, эта теория в совокупности с теорией смены технологических укладов является одной из немногих в экономической науке, которая позволяет строить научно обоснованные прогнозы. В настоящей монографии затронут целый комплекс проблем, вполне
удачно объединенных под названием «Кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн». Задачей
авторов было более точно установить влияние на экономические подъемы и кризисы объективных
и субъективных факторов циклов разной периодичности; выявить влияние инноваций на экономическую динамику на разных фазах циклов; использовать теорию длинных волн в совокупности
с теорией смены технологических укладов для построения научно обоснованных прогнозов. Так
или иначе авторы также касались проблемы органичной связи теории длинных (кондратьевских)
волн с теорией средне-срочных (жюгляровских) циклов. Ведь экономический кризис (крах, спад и
депрессия) – это наиболее драматичная часть именно среднесрочного экономического цикла. Кри-
зисы всегда являются результатом предшествующего активного роста, поскольку этот рост неиз-
бежно создает структурные напряжения не только в экономике, но и в обществе в целом (институ-
ты общества рассчитаны на определенный объем и масштаб явлений и процессов). Но, разумеется,
все кризисы при некоторых сходствах проходят по-разному. Кроме того, заметно отличаются они в
зависимости от того, на какой – повышательной или понижательной – фазе длинной кондратьев-
ской волны они случаются.
В монографии также затрагиваются и очень важные вопросы связи государств и экономического развития, проблемы возникновения социально-политических кризисов в процессе модернизации, другие аспекты социально-политической нестабильности в разных регионах мира.
специфичные для каждого из двух типов макроэволюции черты, которые проиллюстрированы большим количеством примеров, взятых из разных областей эволюционной биологии, истории и социологии. На богатом фактическом материале
сделан сравнительный анализ черт сходства и различия биологической и социаль-
ной макроэволюции; показаны их преемственность и закономерный характер по-
явления у одного из видов животных способности к ускоренному развитию на
основе социальной макроэволюции. Монография снабжена глоссарием.
Книга рассчитана на широкий круг читателей: социологов, историков, философов, биологов, а также всех тех, кого интересуют возможности применения
междисциплинарных подходов к изучению эволюции живой природы и общества.
Многолинейность и альтернативность социальной эволюции, выражающаяся как в многообразии путей к государству, так и в существовании наряду с ранними государствами их альтернатив и аналогов, могут рассматриваться как общие идеи, пронизывающие большую часть статей данного сборника.
mechanisms at various levels and phases of Big History. Such an approach opens up some new perspectives for our understanding of evolution and Big History, their driving forces, vectors, and trends; it creates a consolidated
field for interdisciplinary research. Of special importance is the point that many principles, patterns, regularities, and rules of evolution, which we tend to find relevant only for the biological and social levels of evolution, may be also applied to the cosmic phase of evolution. This is not so surpris-ing, since the formation, life-cycle and renewal of stars, galaxies, as well as other celestial bodies is the longest evolutionary process that took place in the Universe.
On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from ‘the Japanese disease’, and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, albeit to a lesser extent, has signs of the disease as well. As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on our analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we suppose that the new crisis will begin in 2020–2021. We also suppose that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy will continue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises. The paper also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave (2020 – the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis and discusses possible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.
Thus, in the modern world, along with states, one can find numerous alternative social and political organizations, which, to a greater or lesser extent, have some features that are similar to certain ancient polities. How and why is this possible? We hope that this paper will shed some light on this question. However, it requires and deserves further study.
revolution which we denote as ‘Сybernetic’, and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the 21st century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano, bio, robotic, IT and cognitive technologies). Today we are at the threshold of post-human revolution, the era of an intensive impact on the human body. The authors consider the directions of this revolution such as considerable
life extension, organ replacement, BCIs, robotics, genome editing,
etc. It is very important to understand the mechanisms of technological development and to measure the possible risks arising from them.
The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
The first issue of the Yearbook entitled ‘Analyzing and Modeling Global Development’ came out in 2006 (see Grinin, de Munck, and Korotayev 2006). This volume initiated a series of edited volumes dedicated to various aspects of the application of mathematical methods to the study of history and society. It comprised articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales: from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world. On the other hand, all the articles of this issue were dedicated to the analysis, periodization, or modeling of global development. It was shown that the mathematical modeling of historical macroprocesses suggests a fresh approach to the periodization issue. The authors studied these problems from different perspectives (technological, economic, demographic, sociostructural, cultural-psychological, linguistic). New quantitative insights on the dynamics of contemporary processes were presented. These insights allowed the authors to make a number of important forecasts on this basis.
Islamism appears one of the most important phenomena of our times and it greatly affects many global processes. In the Muslim world one can hardly find a country where Islamism would not be an influential and stable political factor. It seems impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (especially Arab) societies without taking into account the role of Islamism as simultaneously an ideology, a cultural environment, and a mode of life and guideline to follow. And if one keeps in mind the increasingly large share of the Muslim population in the world, it appears impossible to ignore their impact in current and future globalization trends. All