Fact of the Week

by Raymond J. Keating – After January data was distorted by transportation issues, the latest durable goods report from the U.S. Census Bureau showed topline growth of 0.9 percent in new orders for manufactured durable goods in February. And the increase held up well excluding transportation (+0.7 percent) and excluding defense (+0.8 percent). That’s positive. […]

by Raymond J. Keating – Few were surprised that the Federal Reserve decided to leave short-term interest rates exactly where they were in its announcement on monetary policy on Wednesday. The Fed decided to persist with its two-pronged stance on monetary policy, i.e., maintain the targeted range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 percent […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest report on industrial production from the Federal Reserve offered positives for February. For good measure, it’s worth taking a look at a key manufacturing sector that has experienced remarkable gains while overall manufacturing production has languished. Recent Gains The nice thing about the industrial production report is that […]

by Raymond J. Keating – New orders for durable manufacturing goods turned positive in January after declines in four of the previous five months, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. January saw an increase of 3.1 percent, after declines of 1.8 percent in December and 2.0 percent in November. However, the […]

by Raymond J. Keating – The latest read on consumer confidence courtesy of The Conference Board was rather grim. The Consumer Confidence Index took a dive of seven points in February to 98.3 (1985=100). That was the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers’ views on current business and […]

by Raymond J. Keating – While retail and food services sales were revised up from +0.4 percent to +0.7 percent for December 2024, they plunged by 0.9 percent in January 2025, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. While food services sales did grow in January (+0.9) percent, retail sales alone dropped […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  Productivity numbers rank among the most under-appreciated economic indicators. But when it comes to worker earnings, business profitability, and economic growth, productivity growth is an essential ingredient. You could call productivity the economy’s secret sauce. According to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm labor productivity […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  For the first time in more than two years, the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI moved into expansion territory. The ISM Manufacturing PMI had been in contraction territory for 26 consecutive months, but finally grew with a reading of 50.9 percent in January 2025. (Above 50 percent means that […]

by Raymond J. Keating –  The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announced on Wednesday (January 29) that it would stand pat on interest rates. The federal funds rate was left unchanged at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent. The Fed also claimed that “economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate […]

by Raymond J. Keating – As we’ve seen time and again in elections, labor unions matter when it comes to politics. The irony, of course, is that labor unions have been on a long, steep decline in terms of their economic relevance. In the business world, unions matter less and less. Indeed, the latest data […]