Journal articles by Jan Oosterhaven
Dutch regional input-output analysis is reviewed 9 It started with compiling single region tables... more Dutch regional input-output analysis is reviewed 9 It started with compiling single region tables with limitedinformationwhich were used for descriptive purposes only. Gradually it developed into constructing full information (inter)regional tables which were also used for impact, programming and prognoses purposes. Some innovations are signalled. A combination of limited Information regional input-output tables and interregional transport tables is recommended instead of full information interregional tables. Moreover, more policy oriented applications are advocated.
Regional Studies, 1996
In this issue of the Policy Review Section, Martin Jones of the Department of Geography, Universi... more In this issue of the Policy Review Section, Martin Jones of the Department of Geography, University of Manchester, considers the policy implications of the summary report of the TEC Baseline Follow-up Studies. In a second paper, Jo Hutchinson, Paul Foley and Hulya Oztel of the Leicester Business School explore issues surrounding the establishment of the DTI-funded Business Link Network. Next
The aim of this article is to assess a proposed new mode of guided high speed ground transportati... more The aim of this article is to assess a proposed new mode of guided high speed ground transportation, the magnetic levitation rail system (Maglev), and to compare the results of a partial cost-benefit analysis with those of an integral CBA. We deal with an urbanconglomeration as well as a core-periphery Maglev project and also try to explain why the older
The RAS method is used to update or regionalize a single matrix such that it conforms to new row ... more The RAS method is used to update or regionalize a single matrix such that it conforms to new row and column totals. This paper presents a correction of the RAS method (CRAS) that uses cell variation distributions calculated from multiple matrices of different periods or different regions. After the solution of the regular RAS, an additional optimization problem is solved that produces the most likely cell-corrections to the regular RAS solution. To test the behavior of CRAS, several simulations with a time series of input-output tables for The Netherlands for 1968-1986 are made. They show that-in situations of structural change-applying CRAS improves the regular RAS estimate. The method will also be applicable to traffic, trade, and migration matrices.
Advances in Spatial Science, 2008
Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2008
This note proposes a method for measuring revealed external economies due to regional specialisat... more This note proposes a method for measuring revealed external economies due to regional specialisation, distinct from localised external economies of diversity across industries. We show how regional differences in economic growth or productivity levels can be decomposed into differences due to: (1) differences in regional sector structure, (2) revealed localisation economies, and (3) the remaining difference at the level of the weighted average regional industry. The method is illustrated by means of Dutch data. Specialisation is shown to have a clear positive effect on the level of productivity and a clear negative effect on the growth of output and jobs.
This paper develops a commuter location model able to explain and simulate residential location c... more This paper develops a commuter location model able to explain and simulate residential location changes of commuters that result from transport improvements. The core model is based on the assumption of constant commuting time, while two extensions incorporate substitution possibilities having an upward effect on total commuting time. Estimation errors of the residential location of the working population with the existing transport system are limited to 7%. With the extended model, the impacts on commuting and residential choice are investigated for six higher speed rail connections between Amsterdam, located in the urban core of the Netherlands, and Groningen, located in its rural periphery. The model outcomes strongly influenced the public policy debate in the Netherlands.
Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 1999
The Annals of Regional Science, 1998
This paper refines, develops and applies input-output decomposition analysis. First, by putting i... more This paper refines, develops and applies input-output decomposition analysis. First, by putting it in an unique intercountry perspective, second, by concentrating on explaining income growth, and, third, by systematically separating the effects of trade pattern changes from the effects of technology and preference changes. The resulting matrix decomposition formula distinguishes six components, and is applied to a set of EU-intercountry input-output tables in constant prices, with 25 sectors and 6 EU-countries, for 1975 and 1985. Macro economic demand growth is found to be most important component at the aggregate country level. The other five components relate to the impacts of coefficient changes. Their sizes are smaller, but at the sector level they are quite large and different between individual sectors and countries. It is concluded that the analysis uncovers a much broader potential impact for national and EU industrial policy measures than the usual less refined decomposition analyses.
The Annals of Regional Science, 2006
This paper shows that the standard measure of revealed comparative advantage (RCA), ranging from ... more This paper shows that the standard measure of revealed comparative advantage (RCA), ranging from 0 to ∞, has problematic properties. Due to its multiplicative specification, it has a moving mean larger than its expected value of 1, while its distribution strongly depends on the number of countries and industries. These properties make its outcomes incomparable across time and place and its economic interpretation problematic. We propose an alternative measure, the additive RCA, ranging from −1 to +1, with a symmetric distribution that centers on a stable mean of zero, independent of the classifications used. Statistical tests show the distribution of the additive index to be more stable. Besides, we propose an aggregate RCA, a regional specialization index, ranging from 0 for pure intraindustry trade to 1 for pure inter-industry trade. The same conclusions and proposals hold for the multiplicative location quotient (LQ), which is used as a measure for the revealed locational attractiveness of certain regions or countries for certain types of industry.
Research in Transportation Economics, 2011
The use of spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for assessing the economic impact... more The use of spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for assessing the economic impacts of transport projects is one of the key items on the research agenda for project appraisal in the Netherlands. These models are particularly suitable for analysing indirect effects of transport projects through linkages between the transport sector and the wider economy. Potentially, according to the literature, indirect effects that are additional to first-order direct cost reductions can turn out to be up to almost 80% in magnitude of the direct impacts. Given the relevance of these models for policy appraisal, experiences with this new modelling approach are important to report. After two years of development and application of SCGE models for transport appraisal, we found that the translation of theory behind the spatial equilibrium models into practical model specifications and empirical applications is a challenging task, and may lead to problems in project appraisal in terms of inaccuracies in the assessment of impacts. This paper discusses some key challenges we encountered with the specification of the Dutch SCGE model RAEM. This chapter is especially useful for researchers developing SCGE applications for use in transport appraisal and those who want to get a better understanding of differences between theoretical and computable SCGE modelling.
This paper studies the impact of diversification, localization and agglomeration economies on reg... more This paper studies the impact of diversification, localization and agglomeration economies on regional labour productivity levels and productivity growth in an integrated theoretical and empirical framework. These three externalities account for more than half of the explained variation in the regional productivity levels and growth rates in deviation from the national average in the Netherlands in the 1990's. The three effects are positive for productivity levels although the impact of agglomeration diminishes over time. There is also a positive effect on productivity growth for of localisation and diversification economies, but for agglomeration the sign of the effect on productivity growth is negative. From the theoretical model it follows that this should be interpreted as congestion effects taking precedence over agglomeration effects. Moreover, a compensating catch-up effect is found. Finally, two different simulation analyses with the model show that a further spatial co...
Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2008
is article gives an integral evaluation of four Dutch magnetic levitation proposals (Maglevs), e... more is article gives an integral evaluation of four Dutch magnetic levitation proposals (Maglevs), explicitly considering market imperfections and cross-border effects. e outcomes of the evaluation provide policy information on the interregional redistribution of employment and population, and on the national welfare effects of the projects. is article also compares the results of an integral cost-benefit analysis with those of a traditional cost-benefit analysis of the direct transport effects only, and concludes that the additional economic benefits due to market imperfections and cross-border effects vary from -1% to +38% of the direct transport benefits, where the ratio depends on the type of regions connected and the future conditions of the market economy. Finally, it concludes that none of the Maglev projects should be considered socially desirable.
Journal of Regional Science, 2009
This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labo... more This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labor productivity levels and growth. We find substantial effects, accounting for roughly half of the explained variation in the labor productivity differences within the Netherlands in the 1990s. Diversification, urbanization, and localization effects are significant and positive for productivity levels. These levels appear cointegrated. The error correction specification of productivity growth surprisingly reflects negative agglomeration effects. From the theoretical model it follows that congestion effects must have taken precedence over agglomeration effects during this period. Both agglomeration and congestion effects are dampened by job density in neighboring regions. Finally, policy simulations with the estimated model show that spatial concentration is more harmful to national productivity growth than spatial dispersion. *We gratefully acknowledge comments of and discussions with Bart van Ark, Jouke van Dijk, Paul Elhorst, Herm van der Beek, Jacco Hakvoort, Remie Bonnier, and participants of the ERSA Conferences in Porto of August 2004 and in Amsterdam of August 2005. We thank Bertus Talsma for his computational assistance and Dirk Stelder for construction of the maps. Finally, the paper greatly benefited from comments and suggestions of three anonymous referees and Matt Kahn.
Journal of Geographical Systems, 2006
This paper develops a probabilistic, competing-destinations, assignment model that predicts chang... more This paper develops a probabilistic, competing-destinations, assignment model that predicts changes in the spatial pattern of the working population as a result of transport improvements. The choice of residence is explained by a new non-parametric model, which represents an alternative to the popular multinominal logit model. Travel times between zones are approximated by a normal distribution function with different mean and variance for each pair of zones, whereas previous models only use average travel times. The model's forecast error of the spatial distribution of the Dutch working population is 7% when tested on 1998 base-year data. To incorporate endogenous changes in its causal variables, an almost ideal demand system is estimated to explain the choice of transport mode, and a new economic geography inter-industry model (RAEM) is estimated to explain the spatial distribution of employment. In the application, the model is used to forecast the impact of six mutually exclusive Dutch core-periphery railway proposals in the projection year 2020.
41th Congress of the …, 2001
We specify a spatial computable general equilibrium model for the Netherlands based on the so-cal... more We specify a spatial computable general equilibrium model for the Netherlands based on the so-called New Economic Geography. The model distinguishes 14 sectors, two modes of transportation and over 500 municipalities. Key parameters are estimated by fitting predicted interregional trade flows to biregional input-output data. The model is then calibrated to a baseline scenario for 2020. From there, the transport grid is modified in line with six proposals for changes in rail infrastructure. The effects of these changes on employment and welfare are computed. We find that the most ambitious project leads to a redistribution of around 8000 jobs from regions further out to regions along the line and especially at the end of it. The net national welfare effect is equivalent to a 250 million euro (0.016%) increase in GDP.
Economic Systems Research, 1993
Economic Systems Research, 2012
It is a widespread belief that exports, in particular of ‘high-tech’ products, contribute much to... more It is a widespread belief that exports, in particular of ‘high-tech’ products, contribute much to China’s income
growth. This study addresses this issue by applying a structural decomposition analysis to input–output (I–O) data.
We employ two extended I–O tables that distinguish processing trade from ordinary exports. The contribution of
exports to the value-added growth from 2002 to 2007 is found to be overestimated by 32% when standard I–O
tables are used rather than the extended I–O tables. Even more strikingly, the value-added growth that may be
attributed to the exports of ‘high-tech’telecommunication products is overestimated by no less than 63%.A serious
overestimation of the contribution to income growth of certain products (such as high-tech products) sends out
misleading signals to policymakers. When measured correctly, the true contribution appears to be substantially
smaller than is generally believed to be.
Ecological Economics, 2009
Policy Analysis"), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) inputoutp... more Policy Analysis"), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) inputoutput (IO) analysis. The project has three principal objectives:
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Journal articles by Jan Oosterhaven
growth. This study addresses this issue by applying a structural decomposition analysis to input–output (I–O) data.
We employ two extended I–O tables that distinguish processing trade from ordinary exports. The contribution of
exports to the value-added growth from 2002 to 2007 is found to be overestimated by 32% when standard I–O
tables are used rather than the extended I–O tables. Even more strikingly, the value-added growth that may be
attributed to the exports of ‘high-tech’telecommunication products is overestimated by no less than 63%.A serious
overestimation of the contribution to income growth of certain products (such as high-tech products) sends out
misleading signals to policymakers. When measured correctly, the true contribution appears to be substantially
smaller than is generally believed to be.
growth. This study addresses this issue by applying a structural decomposition analysis to input–output (I–O) data.
We employ two extended I–O tables that distinguish processing trade from ordinary exports. The contribution of
exports to the value-added growth from 2002 to 2007 is found to be overestimated by 32% when standard I–O
tables are used rather than the extended I–O tables. Even more strikingly, the value-added growth that may be
attributed to the exports of ‘high-tech’telecommunication products is overestimated by no less than 63%.A serious
overestimation of the contribution to income growth of certain products (such as high-tech products) sends out
misleading signals to policymakers. When measured correctly, the true contribution appears to be substantially
smaller than is generally believed to be.
policy-makers, as they ignore the other side of the coin, namely, the tax cost of generating a
sector’s large forward and backward linkages. This other side is important because the tax
cost of the necessary policy measures is unequal across sectors and unequal across
backward and forward linkages. Only the net backward and the recently defined net forward
linkage measure make a first, be it minimal, attempt to incorporate this other side of the coin.
Serious policy advice should be based on an adequate discussion of the other side of the
coin.
literature without consideration of its limitations. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) of economic
growth almost always tells the analyst that the growth of final demand is by far the most important
component in explaining economic growth. SDA, however, only looks at demand side explanations of
growth, while ignoring the supply side, which is especially a problem when analysing longer run
economic growth. This paper compares SDA with shift-and-share analysis and growth accounting, two
other economic growth decomposition analyses, in order to understand the properties and limitations of
all three methods and to propose an econometric combination as a remedy.
transportation, the magnetic levitation rail system (Maglev), and to compare the results of a
partial cost-benefit analysis with those of an integral CBA. We deal with an urbanconglomeration
as well as a core-periphery Maglev project and also try to explain why the
older German Maglev proposal to connect two large, but distant cities (Hamburg and Berlin)
was rejected.
The empirical outcomes of our study provide policy information on the interregional
redistribution of working population and labor demand and whether these projects are
worthwhile in terms of national welfare. They also show that the additional economic benefits
due to market imperfections vary from –1% to +38% of the direct transport benefits,
depending on the type of regions connected and the general condition of the economy. Hence,
a uniform ‘additional to direct benefit’ ratio does not exist.
een nationaal beleid gekomen vanuit een Randstedelijk perspectief. Symbool voor deze
omslag staat de recente kabinetsnota Pieken in de Delta (2004) en het afblazen van het
toegezegde Zuiderzeelijn-project. Deze omslag komt op een moment dat (1) het Noorden
de achterstand op de rest van Nederland langzaam leek in te lopen en (2) de schok van de
sterk stijgende energieprijzen vooral ook het toch al kwetsbare Noorden lijkt te treffen. In
deze beschouwing wordt deze recente ontwikkeling kritisch tegen het licht gehouden. Na
korte introducties van de geschiedenis van de economie van - en het beleid voor Het
Noorden worden twee argumenten nader uitgewerkt. In de eerste plaats wordt betoogd
dat het voorgenomen piekenbeleid onvoldoende is. Daarnaast moet het ontstaan van te
diepe dalen worden voorkomen en moet worden gewerkt aan de creatie van een
hoogvlakte. In de tweede plaats wordt beargumenteerd dat het ouderwets dirigistische
beleid vanuit Den Haag niet meer van deze tijd is. Het Noorden moet zelf kunnen
beslissen over haar toekomst. Het is te verwachten dat Noordelijke eigen wijsheid meer
loont dan Haagse eigenwijsheid – niet alleen voor het Noorden, maar ook de rest van het
land.
the economy. The same line of reasoning is used when so-called key sectors for economic
development are searched for. In both cases, a one-sided view of the dependence of the rest of
the economy on the sector at hand is used, and sectors with large forward and backward
linkages are selected as being strategically important to the region or nation at hand. This onesided
approach, however, disregards that the sectors selected may be heavily dependent on the
rest of the economy, and may therefore in fact not be able to generate the growth impulses that
their larger linkages are assumed to pass on to the rest of the economy. To avoid doublecounting
impacts and to reckon with the two-sided nature of the dependency between a sector
and the economy at large, the net multiplier concept is shown to provide an adequate solution.
However, both the standard (gross) multiplier and the new net multiplier are essentially static
concepts. When the search is for strategic sectors for future development, the question of the
stability of both measures unavoidably arises. Besides the stability of the input-output
coefficients, the stability of net multipliers is also based on the stability of its additional
“exogenous demand/total endogenous output” ratios, which are unstable by nature. We argue
that this property should not be seen as a vice, but as an additional virtue of the net multiplier
concept, as it forces the analyst to explicitly consider this inherent instability instead of
assuming the problem away as is usually done when gross multipliers are used.
negative wider economic impacts of disasters. This means that the IIM is not suited to prioritize
industries for policy interventions that aim at reducing the negative impacts of such disasters.
Besides, it shows that the application of the IIM to typical disaster situations is problematic, and
tends to overestimate the subset of impacts that the model aims to quantify. Finally, we identify two
approaches that much better capture the variety of different disaster impacts.
It showcases the social, economic and environmental importance of the relations between industries in the same and in different regions and countries, and learns how to model these relations by means of regional, interregional and international IO models. It also shows how to extend the basic IO models with endogenous household expenditures. Moreover, it learns the reader how to use the modern IO tables called supply-use tables (SUTs), which explicitly distinguish the products used and sold, and Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) that additionally show the spatial and governmental redistribution of value added. Besides the standard demand-driven IO quantity model, this book also carefully lays out the economic assumptions of its supply-driven mirror image, indicates its extremely limited usefulness, and explains that its little known, accompanying revenue-pull IO price model is almost as useful as the much better known cost-push IO price model that accompanies the standard IO quantity model.
After the mainly theoretical first chapters, the final chapters critically discuss three well known applications of the IO model, namely (1) economic impact analysis of negative supply shocks caused by, for example, natural and man-made disasters, (2) regional and interregional forward and backward linkage analysis, better known as key sector analysis, and (3) structural decomposition analysis of regional, national and interregional economic growth. In all three cases, the standard IO approach is shown along with its problematic implications, such as producing misleadingly high multipliers in the first case and presenting policy makers with only half of the truth in the other two cases. Of course, the necessary additions to and changes in the standard approach are presented as well.
This book stands out with its emphasis on the behavioural foundations of the two IO quantity and the two IO price models, and the plausibility of the causal mechanisms implied by the mathematics of the base models. This leads to a far more critical evaluation of the usefulness of IO analysis than found in standard textbooks. This book thus provides a better understanding of the foundations, the power, and the limitations of input-output analysis.