Publikationsansicht. 33551893. Extinction risk from climate change: and a case study for conserva... more Publikationsansicht. 33551893. Extinction risk from climate change: and a case study for conservation planning in Madagascar / (2005). Cameron, Alison. Abstract. Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Leeds (School of Biology), 2005. Details der Publikation. ...
In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries collaborated in the lan... more In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, ...
Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for i... more Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forestdwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002-2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species-area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.
Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and... more Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were...
Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe patt... more Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A 'one-size-fits-all' model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we ...
Aim It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abio... more Aim It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, Jan 27, 2010
To date, the processing of wildlife location data has relied on a diversity of software and file ... more To date, the processing of wildlife location data has relied on a diversity of software and file formats. Data management and the following spatial and statistical analyses were undertaken in multiple steps, involving many time-consuming importing/exporting phases. Recent technological advancements in tracking systems have made large, continuous, high-frequency datasets of wildlife behavioural data available, such as those derived from the global positioning system (GPS) and other animal-attached sensor devices. These data can be further complemented by a wide range of other information about the animals' environment. Management of these large and diverse datasets for modelling animal behaviour and ecology can prove challenging, slowing down analysis and increasing the probability of mistakes in data handling. We address these issues by critically evaluating the requirements for good management of GPS data for wildlife biology. We highlight that dedicated data management tools ...
Studies of animal movement are rapidly increasing as tracking technologies make it possible to co... more Studies of animal movement are rapidly increasing as tracking technologies make it possible to collect more data of a larger variety of species. Comparisons of animal movement across sites, times, or species are key to asking questions about animal adaptation, responses to climate and land-use change. Thus, great gains can be made by sharing and exchanging animal tracking data. Here we present an animal movement data model that we use within the Movebank web application to describe tracked animals. The model facilitates data comparisons across a broad range of taxa, study designs, and technologies, and is based on the scientific questions that could be addressed with the data.
We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribut... more We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha);
Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for i... more Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forestdwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002-2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species-area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.
Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms,... more Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms, these factors have not been closely studied. We examine these methodological issues in the use of reserve selection algorithms by comparing: (1) quality of input data and (2) use of different weighting methods for prioritizing among species. In 2003, the government of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot, committed to tripling the size of its protected area network to protect 10% of the country's total land area. We apply the Zonation reserve selection algorithm to distribution data for 52 lemur species to identify priority areas for the expansion of Madagascar's reserve network. We assess the similarity of the areas selected, as well as the proportions of lemur ranges protected in the resulting areas when different forms of input data were used: extent of occurrence versus refined extent of occurrence. Low overlap between the areas selected suggests that refined extent of occurrence data are highly desirable, and to best protect lemur species, we recommend refining extent of occurrence ranges using habitat and altitude limitations. Reserve areas were also selected for protection based on three different species weighting schemes, resulting in marked variation in proportional representation of species among the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species extinction risk categories. This result demonstrates that assignment of species weights influences whether a reserve network prioritizes maximizing overall species protection or maximizing protection of the most threatened species.
Madagascar is home to numerous endemic species and lineages, but the processes that have contribu... more Madagascar is home to numerous endemic species and lineages, but the processes that have contributed to its endangered diversity are still poorly understood. Evidence is accumulating to demonstrate the importance of Tertiary dispersal across varying distances of oceanic barriers, supplementing vicariance relationships dating back to the Cretaceous, but these hypotheses remain tentative in the absence of well-supported phylogenies. In the Papilio demoleus group of swallowtail butterflies, three of the five recognized species are restricted to Madagascar, whereas the remaining two species range across the Afrotropical zone and southern Asia plus Australia. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships for all species in the P. demoleus group, as well as 11 outgroup Papilio species, using 60 morphological characters and about 4 kb of nucleotide sequences from two mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and two nuclear (wg and EF-1␣) genes. Of the three endemic Malagasy species, the two that are formally listed as endangered or at risk represented the most basal divergences in the group, while the more common third endemic was clearly related to African P. demodocus. The fifth species, P. demoleus, showed little differentiation across southern Asia, but showed divergence from its subspecies sthenelus in Australia. Dispersal-vicariance analysis using cladograms derived from morphology and three independent genes indicated a Malagasy diversification of lime swallowtails in the middle Miocene. Thus, diversification processes on the island of Madagascar may have contributed to the origin of common butterflies that now occur throughout much of the Old World tropical and subtemperate regions. An alternative hypothesis, that Madagascar is a refuge for ancient lineages resulting from successive colonizations from Africa, is less parsimonious and does not explain the relatively low continental diversity of the group.
Publikationsansicht. 33551893. Extinction risk from climate change: and a case study for conserva... more Publikationsansicht. 33551893. Extinction risk from climate change: and a case study for conservation planning in Madagascar / (2005). Cameron, Alison. Abstract. Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Leeds (School of Biology), 2005. Details der Publikation. ...
In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries collaborated in the lan... more In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, ...
Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for i... more Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forestdwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002-2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species-area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.
Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and... more Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were...
Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe patt... more Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A 'one-size-fits-all' model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we ...
Aim It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abio... more Aim It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, Jan 27, 2010
To date, the processing of wildlife location data has relied on a diversity of software and file ... more To date, the processing of wildlife location data has relied on a diversity of software and file formats. Data management and the following spatial and statistical analyses were undertaken in multiple steps, involving many time-consuming importing/exporting phases. Recent technological advancements in tracking systems have made large, continuous, high-frequency datasets of wildlife behavioural data available, such as those derived from the global positioning system (GPS) and other animal-attached sensor devices. These data can be further complemented by a wide range of other information about the animals' environment. Management of these large and diverse datasets for modelling animal behaviour and ecology can prove challenging, slowing down analysis and increasing the probability of mistakes in data handling. We address these issues by critically evaluating the requirements for good management of GPS data for wildlife biology. We highlight that dedicated data management tools ...
Studies of animal movement are rapidly increasing as tracking technologies make it possible to co... more Studies of animal movement are rapidly increasing as tracking technologies make it possible to collect more data of a larger variety of species. Comparisons of animal movement across sites, times, or species are key to asking questions about animal adaptation, responses to climate and land-use change. Thus, great gains can be made by sharing and exchanging animal tracking data. Here we present an animal movement data model that we use within the Movebank web application to describe tracked animals. The model facilitates data comparisons across a broad range of taxa, study designs, and technologies, and is based on the scientific questions that could be addressed with the data.
We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribut... more We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha);
Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for i... more Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forestdwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002-2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species-area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.
Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms,... more Although data quality and weighting decisions impact the outputs of reserve selection algorithms, these factors have not been closely studied. We examine these methodological issues in the use of reserve selection algorithms by comparing: (1) quality of input data and (2) use of different weighting methods for prioritizing among species. In 2003, the government of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot, committed to tripling the size of its protected area network to protect 10% of the country's total land area. We apply the Zonation reserve selection algorithm to distribution data for 52 lemur species to identify priority areas for the expansion of Madagascar's reserve network. We assess the similarity of the areas selected, as well as the proportions of lemur ranges protected in the resulting areas when different forms of input data were used: extent of occurrence versus refined extent of occurrence. Low overlap between the areas selected suggests that refined extent of occurrence data are highly desirable, and to best protect lemur species, we recommend refining extent of occurrence ranges using habitat and altitude limitations. Reserve areas were also selected for protection based on three different species weighting schemes, resulting in marked variation in proportional representation of species among the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species extinction risk categories. This result demonstrates that assignment of species weights influences whether a reserve network prioritizes maximizing overall species protection or maximizing protection of the most threatened species.
Madagascar is home to numerous endemic species and lineages, but the processes that have contribu... more Madagascar is home to numerous endemic species and lineages, but the processes that have contributed to its endangered diversity are still poorly understood. Evidence is accumulating to demonstrate the importance of Tertiary dispersal across varying distances of oceanic barriers, supplementing vicariance relationships dating back to the Cretaceous, but these hypotheses remain tentative in the absence of well-supported phylogenies. In the Papilio demoleus group of swallowtail butterflies, three of the five recognized species are restricted to Madagascar, whereas the remaining two species range across the Afrotropical zone and southern Asia plus Australia. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships for all species in the P. demoleus group, as well as 11 outgroup Papilio species, using 60 morphological characters and about 4 kb of nucleotide sequences from two mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and two nuclear (wg and EF-1␣) genes. Of the three endemic Malagasy species, the two that are formally listed as endangered or at risk represented the most basal divergences in the group, while the more common third endemic was clearly related to African P. demodocus. The fifth species, P. demoleus, showed little differentiation across southern Asia, but showed divergence from its subspecies sthenelus in Australia. Dispersal-vicariance analysis using cladograms derived from morphology and three independent genes indicated a Malagasy diversification of lime swallowtails in the middle Miocene. Thus, diversification processes on the island of Madagascar may have contributed to the origin of common butterflies that now occur throughout much of the Old World tropical and subtemperate regions. An alternative hypothesis, that Madagascar is a refuge for ancient lineages resulting from successive colonizations from Africa, is less parsimonious and does not explain the relatively low continental diversity of the group.
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