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Peter Orszag

Princeton University, Economics, Alumnus

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Peter Orszag is an economist and banker. He is Vice Chairman of Investment Banking at Lazard. He previously served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget and also as Director of the Congressional Budget Office. He is a member of the National Academy of Medicine and serves on several non-profit boards.
Address: New York

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Papers by Peter Orszag

The Political Economy of Government��Issued Longevity Bonds

This article explores the trade-offs associated with government issuance of longevity bonds as a ... more This article explores the trade-offs associated with government issuance of longevity bonds as a way of stimulating private annuity supply in the presence of aggregate mortality risk. We provide new calculations suggesting a 5 percent chance that aggregate mortality risk could ex post raise annuity costs for private insurers by as much as 5-10 percentage points, with the most likely effect based on historical patterns toward the lower end of that range. While we suspect that aggregate mortality risk does exert some upward pressure on annuity prices, evidence from private market pricing suggests that, to the extent that private insurers are accurately pricing this risk, the effect is less than 5 percentage points. We discuss ways that the private market can spread this risk, while emphasizing that the government has the unique ability to spread aggregate risk across generations. We note factors that might hamper such an efficient allocation of risk, including potential political incentives for the government to shift more than the optimal amount of risk onto future generations, and the possibility that government fiscal policy might allocate risk less efficiently within each generation than would private markets. We also discuss how large-scale longevity bond issuance might affect government borrowing costs, as well as political economy aspects of how the proceeds from such a bond issuance might be used.

Warm Hearts and Cool Heads: Promoting Growth and Opportunity in a Globalizing Economy

Beyond economics 101: insights into healthcare reform from the Congressional Budget Office

Healthcare Financial Management Journal of the Healthcare Financial Management Association, Feb 1, 2009

College Savings Plans: A Platform for Inclusive Saving Policy? College Savings Plans: A Platform for Inclusive Saving Policy?

Interdependent Security: Implications for Homeland Security Policy and Other Areas

American Economic Policy in the 1990's

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

... Monica and the West Wing. The cell phone and the Palm Pilot. Policy-wonk slogans, some carefu... more

The challenge of rising health care costs--a view from the Congressional Budget Office

The New England journal of medicine, 2007

... 6. Wennberg, David E., Marr, Amy, Lang, Lance, O&amp;amp;amp;#x27;Malley, Stephen, Bennet... more

Interdependent Security: Implications for Homeland Security Policy and Other Areas

Voluntary Individual Accounts: The Lessons from the U.K. Experience

First, although cross-country comparisons are fraught with difficulties, the U.K. is similar in m... more First, although cross-country comparisons are fraught with difficulties, the U.K. is similar in many ways to the United States. In addition to our shared language and traditions, both the U.K. and the U.S. are advanced industrialized economies. Many of the other countries cited in the debate over individual accounts are developing economies, which face substantially different challenges than we do. Drawing lessons for the United States from the experiences of these developing economies is particularly difficult. Second, the U.K. is the only industrialized nation of which I am aware that allows individuals to opt out of its state-run Social Security system and into an individual account. Other industrialized countries have adopted individual accounts, but have made them mandatory. The U.K. thus provides an important case study on the operation of voluntary individual accounts.

Financing Public Higher Education: Short-Term and Long-Term Challenges

The Challenge of Rising Health Care Costs — A View from the Congressional Budget Office

New England Journal of Medicine, 2007

Health Care Reform and Cost Control

New England Journal of Medicine, 2010

After nearly a century of failed attempts, comprehensive health care reform was enacted on March ... more

America Cannot Afford a Huge Deficit

Progressivity and Government Incentives to Save" Conference on "Building Assets, Building Credit" Kennedy School of Government Harvard University November 2003

Barriers to saving

When the poor succeed in building up a few assets, they often find themselves disqualified from b... more

Deficits, Interest Rates, and the User Cost of Capital: A Reconsideration of the Effects of Tax Policy on Investment

National Tax Journal, 2005

... We thank Emil Apostolov, Matt Hall, Shannon Leahy, Catherine Lee, and Audrey Stern for outsta... more

New Estimates of the Budget Outlook: Plus Ca Change, Plus C'est la Meme Chose

Berkeley Program in Law Economics Working Paper Series, Feb 15, 2006

The Budget Outlook: Projections and Implications

The Economists Voice, 2004

Efficiency and Tax Incentives: The Case for Refundable Tax Credits

Current Government Receipts

The Political Economy of Government��Issued Longevity Bonds

This article explores the trade-offs associated with government issuance of longevity bonds as a ... more This article explores the trade-offs associated with government issuance of longevity bonds as a way of stimulating private annuity supply in the presence of aggregate mortality risk. We provide new calculations suggesting a 5 percent chance that aggregate mortality risk could ex post raise annuity costs for private insurers by as much as 5-10 percentage points, with the most likely effect based on historical patterns toward the lower end of that range. While we suspect that aggregate mortality risk does exert some upward pressure on annuity prices, evidence from private market pricing suggests that, to the extent that private insurers are accurately pricing this risk, the effect is less than 5 percentage points. We discuss ways that the private market can spread this risk, while emphasizing that the government has the unique ability to spread aggregate risk across generations. We note factors that might hamper such an efficient allocation of risk, including potential political incentives for the government to shift more than the optimal amount of risk onto future generations, and the possibility that government fiscal policy might allocate risk less efficiently within each generation than would private markets. We also discuss how large-scale longevity bond issuance might affect government borrowing costs, as well as political economy aspects of how the proceeds from such a bond issuance might be used.

Warm Hearts and Cool Heads: Promoting Growth and Opportunity in a Globalizing Economy

Beyond economics 101: insights into healthcare reform from the Congressional Budget Office

Healthcare Financial Management Journal of the Healthcare Financial Management Association, Feb 1, 2009

College Savings Plans: A Platform for Inclusive Saving Policy? College Savings Plans: A Platform for Inclusive Saving Policy?

Interdependent Security: Implications for Homeland Security Policy and Other Areas

American Economic Policy in the 1990's

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

... Monica and the West Wing. The cell phone and the Palm Pilot. Policy-wonk slogans, some carefu... more

The challenge of rising health care costs--a view from the Congressional Budget Office

The New England journal of medicine, 2007

... 6. Wennberg, David E., Marr, Amy, Lang, Lance, O&amp;amp;amp;#x27;Malley, Stephen, Bennet... more

Interdependent Security: Implications for Homeland Security Policy and Other Areas

Voluntary Individual Accounts: The Lessons from the U.K. Experience

First, although cross-country comparisons are fraught with difficulties, the U.K. is similar in m... more First, although cross-country comparisons are fraught with difficulties, the U.K. is similar in many ways to the United States. In addition to our shared language and traditions, both the U.K. and the U.S. are advanced industrialized economies. Many of the other countries cited in the debate over individual accounts are developing economies, which face substantially different challenges than we do. Drawing lessons for the United States from the experiences of these developing economies is particularly difficult. Second, the U.K. is the only industrialized nation of which I am aware that allows individuals to opt out of its state-run Social Security system and into an individual account. Other industrialized countries have adopted individual accounts, but have made them mandatory. The U.K. thus provides an important case study on the operation of voluntary individual accounts.

Financing Public Higher Education: Short-Term and Long-Term Challenges

The Challenge of Rising Health Care Costs — A View from the Congressional Budget Office

New England Journal of Medicine, 2007

Health Care Reform and Cost Control

New England Journal of Medicine, 2010

After nearly a century of failed attempts, comprehensive health care reform was enacted on March ... more

America Cannot Afford a Huge Deficit

Progressivity and Government Incentives to Save" Conference on "Building Assets, Building Credit" Kennedy School of Government Harvard University November 2003

Barriers to saving

When the poor succeed in building up a few assets, they often find themselves disqualified from b... more

Deficits, Interest Rates, and the User Cost of Capital: A Reconsideration of the Effects of Tax Policy on Investment

National Tax Journal, 2005

... We thank Emil Apostolov, Matt Hall, Shannon Leahy, Catherine Lee, and Audrey Stern for outsta... more

New Estimates of the Budget Outlook: Plus Ca Change, Plus C'est la Meme Chose

Berkeley Program in Law Economics Working Paper Series, Feb 15, 2006

The Budget Outlook: Projections and Implications

The Economists Voice, 2004

Efficiency and Tax Incentives: The Case for Refundable Tax Credits

Current Government Receipts