Question 1

What does "accuracy" mean here?

Accepted Answer

Accuracy shows how often the top-voted outcome before a market closed ended up being right. For example, if "Yes" was leading at 65% twelve hours before resolution and the market resolved "Yes," that counts as accurate.

Question 2

What is a "Brier score"?

Accepted Answer

The Brier score measures how close predicted probabilities were to the actual outcomes. It's the average of the squared differences between what was predicted and what actually happened. Lower scores mean better predictions, with 0 being perfect.

Question 3

Why does accuracy improve closer to resolution?

Accepted Answer

As polymarkets get closer to resolving, traders have more information to work with. New updates and developments are priced in, making the odds more accurate and helping it converge toward the correct outcome.

Question 4

Why do more polymarkets resolve "No" than "Yes"?

Accepted Answer

There are usually more ways for something not to happen than to happen in one exact way, thus "No" outcomes tend to occur more often.

Question 5

Where does this data come from?

Accepted Answer

All data is sourced from resolved polymarkets, which is publicly accessible through the Polymarket API. The analysis uses price snapshots taken at fixed time intervals before resolution.

Quelle est la précision de Polymarket ?

Précision avant résolution

Attendu vs Réel

Score Brier vs Volume

Composition des Résolutions

Méthodes

Questions Fréquentes

Quelle est la précision de Polymarket ?

Précision avant résolution

Attendu vs Réel

Score Brier vs Volume

Composition des Résolutions

Méthodes

Questions Fréquentes

Que signifie "précision" ici ?

Qu'est-ce qu'un "score Brier" ?

Pourquoi la précision s'améliore-t-elle près de la résolution ?

Pourquoi plus de marchés résolvent "Non" que "Oui" ?

D'où viennent ces données ?