How accurate is Polymarket?

96.7%
4 hr accuracy
90.4%
1 month accuracy
0.0843
Brier Score

Accuracy prior to resolution

Shows how accurate Polymarket odds were at different points before they resolved.

4 Hrs96.7%12 Hrs96.4%1 Day95.8%1 Week94%1 Month90.4%

Expected vs Actual

Polymarket forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability ranges.

Expected Percentage
Resolved Percentage
20%40%60%80%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Brier Score vs Volume

Lower is better. Brier scores show how accurate predictions really are — not just if they were correct, but how close the prediction was to being right.

0.020.040.060.08<1K1-5k5-10k10-25k25-50k50-100k100-250k250-500k500k-1M1M+

Resolution Composition

Shows the percentages of all polymarkets that ended up resolving to "Yes" or "No".

Yes - 24.8%
No - 75.2%

Methods

All metrics are calculated from resolved polymarkets, using price snapshots taken 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution. Accuracy reflects how often the final leading outcome matched reality, and Brier scores measure the average squared error of predictions.

Learn more about Polymarket Brier Score.

Frequently Asked Questions