L'articolo restituisce una geografia delle aree marginali in Italia alternativa rispetto alla... more L'articolo restituisce una geografia delle aree marginali in Italia alternativa rispetto alla classificazione proposta nella Strategia Nazionale per le Aree Interne (2014). Analizzando le condizioni demografiche, socioeconomiche e relative alla mobilità, il lavoro individua, attraverso una cluster analisi, quattro diverse tipologie di marginalità a cui ricondurre politiche per contrastare le disuguaglianze territoriali.
The paper discusses the topic of the so-called “innovative” financing methods, applied to urban i... more The paper discusses the topic of the so-called “innovative” financing methods, applied to urban infrastructures. A range of methods is, or is supposed to be, available to policy makers to partially or fully finance transport infrastructures. In general, these methods are claimed to be the solution to financing problems, but in reality they have been seldom applied and the experience on the actual effects is then limited. Methods range from traditional public procurement to land value capture, passing by the taxes of scope and project financing. The paper is structured as follows. After an introduction, a review of the available traditional and innovative methods is provided in section 2 and 3, both from the theoretical and applicative point of view. Some literature examples are given in section 4, stressing the main outcomes of some applications around the world. The following section is dedicated to a cross-methods comment. Section 6 is proposing an exercise application to Milan ne...
Presence and mobility of the population during the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown i... more Presence and mobility of the population during the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in Italy<!-<ForCover>Beria P, Lunkar V, Presence and mobility of the population during the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in Italy, Sustainable Cities and Society,
ABSTRACT The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a sta... more ABSTRACT The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a state-managed failure. The history of the airline is characterized by a continuous decline in its competitive position since the progressive liberalization of the European aviation market. The root cause of this decline lies in the carrier being mainly used as a political tool rather than operating as a competitive firm. In a liberalized market this doomed Alitalia to failure, which was artificially delayed by numerous state financial and regulatory interventions. The paper starts with a historical overview of the most important events in recent Alitalia history. Thereafter the main causes of the airline’s weak competitive position relative to other European carriers are analyzed. We argue that the underlying causes of the decline were continuous political protection, lack of strategic views in favor of short-term objectives, and poor managerial decisions.
Oggetto del paper è una riflessione sulle possibili modalità di valutazione ex-post di un'es... more Oggetto del paper è una riflessione sulle possibili modalità di valutazione ex-post di un'esperienza complessa di governance, le Agenzie di Sviluppo Locale. La valutazione ex-post di entità tecniche ed istituzionali complesse come le Agenzie, che non sono progetti, piani o politiche, richiede la messa a punto di strumenti di valutazione adeguati e calibrati su di esse. La strumentazione tradizionale risulta inadeguata date le molte sfaccettature del problema, la grande eterogeneità di esperienze e soprattutto la loro intrinseca ...
The non-medical policies implemented to “flatten the curve” and to reduce the stress on the healt... more The non-medical policies implemented to “flatten the curve” and to reduce the stress on the health system during the COVID-19 outbreak represents a critical event in the history of Italy. This kind of “lockdown” has left people stranded in their homes and, for some, out of their homes unable to return to their region of residence due to the disruptions in the mobility network. As a consequence, a vast scale of research is being performed to understand the patterns of mobility of people during the emergency. The availability of rich datasets has made it possible to quantify the dynamics of spatial distribution of people as a response to the strict measures. With the help of the data provided by the Facebook – Data for Good program, an effort is made to describe and to reason on the presence and of mobility patterns of the population at a regional and provincial scale during the lockdown. Our interpretation is that, initially, tourists left the country and later Italians abroad manage...
The core of Italian HS rail plan is the Turin-Salerno line, in operation since 2009. The central ... more The core of Italian HS rail plan is the Turin-Salerno line, in operation since 2009. The central segment Milan-Rome has been working well since the opening, with good demand figures quite in line with the later forecasts. The extremes of the line, namely the extensions to Turin and to Naples/Salerno has remained for long far less used. In 2012, unique case in Europe, a newcomer entered in the market and pushed a radical change in Trenitalia marketing, quality and pricing. This positive fact has fostered the market, with supply and demand dramatically increased, reduced fares and distributed benefits to the users, also in terms of new mobility practices. The paper aims at revising a former Cost Benefit Analysis exercise, produced just two years after line opening, in the light of the changed conditions. In particular, applying a similar methodology and estimating on the basis of third-party sources the current Origin-Destination demand matrix, we will recalculate the economic feasibility indicators. The cost-benefit analysis gives a marginally positive result in the most-likely case. To the contrary, extrapolating pre-competition trends without competition, gives a very negative result. In fact, we show that travel time benefits are a fraction of the cost. The largest benefits comes from the new demand, which in turn comes from increased frequency, from the introduction of mixed traditional/high-speed services and from the fall in prices due to the entrance of NTV.
Decisions on transport plans and projects involve relevant public investments and may also determ... more Decisions on transport plans and projects involve relevant public investments and may also determine radical changes in users’ costs. Unfortunately, it is not rare that—especially at the strategic planning stage—decisions on alternative projects or scenarios are made on a qualitative basis or, at best, by setting some indicators and verifying how much they reach the politically decided targets (e.g., “increasing the use of bicycles by 10%”). In order to reduce subjectivity, a more quantitative and comprehensive approach to the evaluation is needed. A Cost-Benefit Analysis is a tool commonly used to assess public expenditure, but its application to mobility plans introduces further practical and theoretical complexities. In this paper, we will thus try to contribute to the topic of the assessment of both sustainable mobility transport plans and infrastructure projects by presenting the operative application of a CBA methodology that is, at the same time, theoretically coherent and ri...
ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, 2012
The topic of external costs of transport is widely studied in the scientific literature and polic... more The topic of external costs of transport is widely studied in the scientific literature and policy makers are showing a growing awareness on this problem. One of the main tools used to control the social costs of transport and reduce welfare losses associated to externalities is that of internalisation via tariffs: road pricing, carbon taxes, dedicated taxes etc. Actually, many taxes on transport already exist, but seldom have an explicit internalisation purpose. In this paper we compare current road transport perceived marginal costs in Italy with social ones. Starting from the literature on the topic, in the analytical part of the paper we present the case of Italy and quantify the current level of external costs and taxation. Then we compare unit taxes with marginal transport social costs, with particular respect to different driving contexts. Results show that gasoline passengers cars always perceive the external costs they generate more than any other vehicle category. In urban...
In the last decades, low-cost carriers have generated several changes in the air market for both ... more In the last decades, low-cost carriers have generated several changes in the air market for both passengers and airports. Mainly for regional airports, low-cost carriers have represented an important opportunity to improve their connectivity levels and passenger traffic. Furthermore, many regional airports have become key factors to regenerate the local economy by improving accessibility and stimulating several markets, such as tourism. However, the relationship between low-cost carriers and airports is rather complex and the outcomes not always predictable. In order to analyse and understand better such relationship and its outcomes, this chapter discusses the main underlying factors identified in: relation with the regional air market (secondary/primary airports), balance of power (dominated/non-dominated airports) and industrial organisation (bases/non-bases). Starting from the proposed Relative Closeness Index, which combines yearly airport passengers and distance between airport pairs, a large sample of European airports is analysed. Then, a smaller sub-sample-which includes selected, significant case studies referring to mid-sized airports-is discussed in detail. Among the main findings, airports sharing their catchment area with others are in a very risky position, due to the potential mobility of LCCs, while geographically isolated airports in good catchment areas can better counterbalance the power of carriers.
Road Pricing: Technologies, economics and acceptability
The city of Milan had introduced a form of cordon pricing to enter the city centre already in 200... more The city of Milan had introduced a form of cordon pricing to enter the city centre already in 2008. Originally, it was conceived as a pollution charge, aimed at reducing the polluting vehicles going into the most delicate area of the city, and only secondarily affecting the traffic volumes. That policy, whose effects declined over the years due to the fleet turnover, was substituted in 2012 with a genuine congestion charge, called `Area C'. The substitution came after a city referendum in June 2011. The chapter discusses the history of the policy and summarises the main outcomes, 5 years after implementation, in terms of traffic reduction, emissions and impact on user groups. A section is devoted to the description of the technology used and of the architecture of the system, entailing real time data exchange with the vehicle registry, the urban police and a number of payment systems. The chapter concludes with a discussion on the motivations behind the (unexpected) public and political acceptability of the policy and proposes some hints to transfer its experience to other cases.
L'articolo restituisce una geografia delle aree marginali in Italia alternativa rispetto alla... more L'articolo restituisce una geografia delle aree marginali in Italia alternativa rispetto alla classificazione proposta nella Strategia Nazionale per le Aree Interne (2014). Analizzando le condizioni demografiche, socioeconomiche e relative alla mobilità, il lavoro individua, attraverso una cluster analisi, quattro diverse tipologie di marginalità a cui ricondurre politiche per contrastare le disuguaglianze territoriali.
The paper discusses the topic of the so-called “innovative” financing methods, applied to urban i... more The paper discusses the topic of the so-called “innovative” financing methods, applied to urban infrastructures. A range of methods is, or is supposed to be, available to policy makers to partially or fully finance transport infrastructures. In general, these methods are claimed to be the solution to financing problems, but in reality they have been seldom applied and the experience on the actual effects is then limited. Methods range from traditional public procurement to land value capture, passing by the taxes of scope and project financing. The paper is structured as follows. After an introduction, a review of the available traditional and innovative methods is provided in section 2 and 3, both from the theoretical and applicative point of view. Some literature examples are given in section 4, stressing the main outcomes of some applications around the world. The following section is dedicated to a cross-methods comment. Section 6 is proposing an exercise application to Milan ne...
Presence and mobility of the population during the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown i... more Presence and mobility of the population during the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in Italy<!-<ForCover>Beria P, Lunkar V, Presence and mobility of the population during the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in Italy, Sustainable Cities and Society,
ABSTRACT The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a sta... more ABSTRACT The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a state-managed failure. The history of the airline is characterized by a continuous decline in its competitive position since the progressive liberalization of the European aviation market. The root cause of this decline lies in the carrier being mainly used as a political tool rather than operating as a competitive firm. In a liberalized market this doomed Alitalia to failure, which was artificially delayed by numerous state financial and regulatory interventions. The paper starts with a historical overview of the most important events in recent Alitalia history. Thereafter the main causes of the airline’s weak competitive position relative to other European carriers are analyzed. We argue that the underlying causes of the decline were continuous political protection, lack of strategic views in favor of short-term objectives, and poor managerial decisions.
Oggetto del paper è una riflessione sulle possibili modalità di valutazione ex-post di un'es... more Oggetto del paper è una riflessione sulle possibili modalità di valutazione ex-post di un'esperienza complessa di governance, le Agenzie di Sviluppo Locale. La valutazione ex-post di entità tecniche ed istituzionali complesse come le Agenzie, che non sono progetti, piani o politiche, richiede la messa a punto di strumenti di valutazione adeguati e calibrati su di esse. La strumentazione tradizionale risulta inadeguata date le molte sfaccettature del problema, la grande eterogeneità di esperienze e soprattutto la loro intrinseca ...
The non-medical policies implemented to “flatten the curve” and to reduce the stress on the healt... more The non-medical policies implemented to “flatten the curve” and to reduce the stress on the health system during the COVID-19 outbreak represents a critical event in the history of Italy. This kind of “lockdown” has left people stranded in their homes and, for some, out of their homes unable to return to their region of residence due to the disruptions in the mobility network. As a consequence, a vast scale of research is being performed to understand the patterns of mobility of people during the emergency. The availability of rich datasets has made it possible to quantify the dynamics of spatial distribution of people as a response to the strict measures. With the help of the data provided by the Facebook – Data for Good program, an effort is made to describe and to reason on the presence and of mobility patterns of the population at a regional and provincial scale during the lockdown. Our interpretation is that, initially, tourists left the country and later Italians abroad manage...
The core of Italian HS rail plan is the Turin-Salerno line, in operation since 2009. The central ... more The core of Italian HS rail plan is the Turin-Salerno line, in operation since 2009. The central segment Milan-Rome has been working well since the opening, with good demand figures quite in line with the later forecasts. The extremes of the line, namely the extensions to Turin and to Naples/Salerno has remained for long far less used. In 2012, unique case in Europe, a newcomer entered in the market and pushed a radical change in Trenitalia marketing, quality and pricing. This positive fact has fostered the market, with supply and demand dramatically increased, reduced fares and distributed benefits to the users, also in terms of new mobility practices. The paper aims at revising a former Cost Benefit Analysis exercise, produced just two years after line opening, in the light of the changed conditions. In particular, applying a similar methodology and estimating on the basis of third-party sources the current Origin-Destination demand matrix, we will recalculate the economic feasibility indicators. The cost-benefit analysis gives a marginally positive result in the most-likely case. To the contrary, extrapolating pre-competition trends without competition, gives a very negative result. In fact, we show that travel time benefits are a fraction of the cost. The largest benefits comes from the new demand, which in turn comes from increased frequency, from the introduction of mixed traditional/high-speed services and from the fall in prices due to the entrance of NTV.
Decisions on transport plans and projects involve relevant public investments and may also determ... more Decisions on transport plans and projects involve relevant public investments and may also determine radical changes in users’ costs. Unfortunately, it is not rare that—especially at the strategic planning stage—decisions on alternative projects or scenarios are made on a qualitative basis or, at best, by setting some indicators and verifying how much they reach the politically decided targets (e.g., “increasing the use of bicycles by 10%”). In order to reduce subjectivity, a more quantitative and comprehensive approach to the evaluation is needed. A Cost-Benefit Analysis is a tool commonly used to assess public expenditure, but its application to mobility plans introduces further practical and theoretical complexities. In this paper, we will thus try to contribute to the topic of the assessment of both sustainable mobility transport plans and infrastructure projects by presenting the operative application of a CBA methodology that is, at the same time, theoretically coherent and ri...
ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, 2012
The topic of external costs of transport is widely studied in the scientific literature and polic... more The topic of external costs of transport is widely studied in the scientific literature and policy makers are showing a growing awareness on this problem. One of the main tools used to control the social costs of transport and reduce welfare losses associated to externalities is that of internalisation via tariffs: road pricing, carbon taxes, dedicated taxes etc. Actually, many taxes on transport already exist, but seldom have an explicit internalisation purpose. In this paper we compare current road transport perceived marginal costs in Italy with social ones. Starting from the literature on the topic, in the analytical part of the paper we present the case of Italy and quantify the current level of external costs and taxation. Then we compare unit taxes with marginal transport social costs, with particular respect to different driving contexts. Results show that gasoline passengers cars always perceive the external costs they generate more than any other vehicle category. In urban...
In the last decades, low-cost carriers have generated several changes in the air market for both ... more In the last decades, low-cost carriers have generated several changes in the air market for both passengers and airports. Mainly for regional airports, low-cost carriers have represented an important opportunity to improve their connectivity levels and passenger traffic. Furthermore, many regional airports have become key factors to regenerate the local economy by improving accessibility and stimulating several markets, such as tourism. However, the relationship between low-cost carriers and airports is rather complex and the outcomes not always predictable. In order to analyse and understand better such relationship and its outcomes, this chapter discusses the main underlying factors identified in: relation with the regional air market (secondary/primary airports), balance of power (dominated/non-dominated airports) and industrial organisation (bases/non-bases). Starting from the proposed Relative Closeness Index, which combines yearly airport passengers and distance between airport pairs, a large sample of European airports is analysed. Then, a smaller sub-sample-which includes selected, significant case studies referring to mid-sized airports-is discussed in detail. Among the main findings, airports sharing their catchment area with others are in a very risky position, due to the potential mobility of LCCs, while geographically isolated airports in good catchment areas can better counterbalance the power of carriers.
Road Pricing: Technologies, economics and acceptability
The city of Milan had introduced a form of cordon pricing to enter the city centre already in 200... more The city of Milan had introduced a form of cordon pricing to enter the city centre already in 2008. Originally, it was conceived as a pollution charge, aimed at reducing the polluting vehicles going into the most delicate area of the city, and only secondarily affecting the traffic volumes. That policy, whose effects declined over the years due to the fleet turnover, was substituted in 2012 with a genuine congestion charge, called `Area C'. The substitution came after a city referendum in June 2011. The chapter discusses the history of the policy and summarises the main outcomes, 5 years after implementation, in terms of traffic reduction, emissions and impact on user groups. A section is devoted to the description of the technology used and of the architecture of the system, entailing real time data exchange with the vehicle registry, the urban police and a number of payment systems. The chapter concludes with a discussion on the motivations behind the (unexpected) public and political acceptability of the policy and proposes some hints to transfer its experience to other cases.
The present paper analyses two airport investment projects in Europe, namely the realised investm... more The present paper analyses two airport investment projects in Europe, namely the realised investment of Milan Malpensa and the planned investment of Berlin Brandenburg International. The paper evaluates the history of the projects, their objectives, demand forecasts, assessment methodologies and the main carrier's strategy. A comparison between expectations and actual outcomes for Malpensa ten years after its opening examines important parameters for airport investments. Finally, these parameters are analysed for the planned investment of Berlin Brandenburg International.
The paper presents the results of a research on railway regulation and liberalisation in Italy, F... more The paper presents the results of a research on railway regulation and liberalisation in Italy, France, Germany and Spain. The analysed fields of regulation are the relationship between the State and the rail companies, network access conditions by operators, slot allocating and pricing schemes and how public service obligations are defined, paid and regulated. The aim of the paper is to give a comparative overview of the rail regulation from a critical point of view, rather than descriptive. The regulatory frameworks are outlined and then assessed according to their implications on the liberalisation level and on the effective market opening. The conclusions are that the actual level of liberalisation is still scarce and only in some cases the opening level is increasing. Market penetration of newcomers is significant only in niche markets. An issue emerging from the work is the opposing attitude of incumbent railways against liberalisation and the role of decision makers in backing this behaviour. The strategies followed to limit the outcomes of the liberalisation process are different across the country sample. However, all the incumbents argue with the self-referential declaration of efficiency, public service obligations and they claim to be under an excessive and unfair foreign competition. These arguments are yet embedded in legislative, organisational and economic settings supporting these positions like the common ownership of network and services, the permanence of dominant positions and favourable financial conditions.
In the last 20 years light rail and tramway schemes have been introduced in many European cities.... more In the last 20 years light rail and tramway schemes have been introduced in many European cities. The effects of these schemes over public transport patronage, and the benefits they have generated, seem to have sometimes been overestimated. The availability of some experiences helps in deriving some reflections about the circumstances in which light rail schemes can be truly convenient compared to bus systems.
The aim of the paper is to critically describe the behaviour of the main Italian transport infr... more The aim of the paper is to critically describe the behaviour of the main Italian transport infrastructural agents (national roads and rails, highway, airports concessions) in the field of infrastructure financing. All the actors are trying to avoid the effects of regulation and, at the same time, to reinforce their dominant position and power. The thesis of the paper is that the funding and building of new infrastructures is often the pillar of this strategy, since this is the field where the legal framework is weaker. A short review of the present normative is followed by the description of the behaviour of the main agents. Recent planning documents will be commented, pointing out the tendency of the regulated monopolists to find out new strategies to maximise their objectives. Among these, the proposal of new infrastructures is the field where monopolists are more active and where regulation should be more effective.
The paper discusses the present regulatory framework in Italy concerning transport infrastructure... more The paper discusses the present regulatory framework in Italy concerning transport infrastructures financing and provides some policy indications. The Italian situation is characterised by non homogeneity among the transport modes and insufficient, or even perverse, incentives to efficiency. Also, the norms promote the tendency to overinvestment and "gold plating" because applied within a weak planning framework.
Politecnico di Milano, Laboratorio di Politica dei …, Jan 1, 2006
During the last decade, due to real or presumed infrastructural gaps demonstrated with indicators... more During the last decade, due to real or presumed infrastructural gaps demonstrated with indicators and general studies, the activity of transport planning in Italy has been intense. The 2 nd General Plan of Transports and Logistics (PGTL) has been published in year 2000, soon followed in year 2001 by a law, the so called "Objective Law" (Legge Obiettivo), that includes a large number of infrastructural projects to be realised with a quicker procedure and that constitutes de facto a parallel "shadow" plan. The "Objective law" defines a new assessment procedure with a mandatory environmental impact analysis.
The assessment of infrastructure investments is often affected by inaccuracy in traffic forecasti... more The assessment of infrastructure investments is often affected by inaccuracy in traffic forecasting, optimism bias and overvaluation of expected benefits. In general, even when such misrepresentation is not strategically introduced by proponents to push their projects, valuators and decision makers must cope with the existence of a risk of demand levels below expectations and consequent problem of overinvestment.
This paper aims at analysing the methodology used for financing large infrastructure projects in ... more This paper aims at analysing the methodology used for financing large infrastructure projects in Italy. In particular, it focuses on the Italian highway sector, where in the last years many projects have been launched using new financial instruments. The paper discusses three of these "instruments". The first one is the Project Financing, discussed starting from a general review, analyzing also the different typologies used, the risks involved and their allocation among the various subjects that take part in the PF mechanism. A special case concerns the recently introduced model used for the Italian highways, known as "PF with takeover compensation". There are two other important mechanisms used for financing infrastructure projects in Italy: the exploitation of road demand rigidity and the spreading of the investment over the entire network, favouring larger concessions. We conclude that all these three mechanisms present deep flaws in terms of transparency and of contradiction with economic feasibility criteria (that have to dominate the public investment rationale).
The range of financial channels used goes from total public transfers, to total financing by the ... more The range of financial channels used goes from total public transfers, to total financing by the tariffs, within a frame that can be defined as “Hot Project Financing”. In between, there are several forms of PPP, with various degrees of intervention of public funds. Furthermore, this participation happens either within existing concessions or within dedicated competitive tenders for a single infrastructure.
11th World Conference on Transport Research, Jan 1, 2007
The paper presents a survey conducted on the environmental impact assessments and the feasibility... more The paper presents a survey conducted on the environmental impact assessments and the feasibility studies for fifteen selected infrastructural transport projects all over the Italian territory and approved under the so called "Objective Law". The survey collects data concerning the demand forecasts, the definition of alternatives and the cost benefit analysis, with their level of detail.
Page 1. 21/03/2011 1 Transport Economics L3 – Fundamentals of microeconomics (III) Beria Paolo Co... more Page 1. 21/03/2011 1 Transport Economics L3 – Fundamentals of microeconomics (III) Beria Paolo Course in Transport Economics L3 Fundamentals of microeconomics (III) Market failures Transport Economics L3 – Fundamentals of microeconomics (III) CONTENTS Public goods and state intervention 2. “Merit wants” and information asymmetries 1. Economic cycles and unemployment 3. Initial income distribution 4. Monopoly 5.
In Italy long distance coach services have long played a significant role in connecting the most ... more In Italy long distance coach services have long played a significant role in connecting the most dispersed part of the
country to major destinations, giving an important contribution to social and geographical inclusion, but remaining
limited in absolute numbers and receiving marginal attention by the general public and even policy makers.
After years of stability, the industry is going to face radical changes in the next years since its liberalisation process,
gradually started in 2007, was completed at the end of 2013, changing from exclusive concessions to non-exclusive
authorisations.
In this paper we perform some spatial and scenario analyses, with particular reference to competing transport modes
and new potential markets.
The industry supplied more than 88 million bus-km in 2012, serving about 2.6 billion passenger-km. The existing
network, providing a particularly extensive service in the South and in the Centre of the country, directly serves 2/3 of
Italian population.
New opportunities are arising as a consequence of liberalisation, changes in competing modes (in particular long
distance railway services) and changes in characteristics of part of the country also as a consequence of more recent
internal migration phenomena.
Coach services in 2013 are serving only 27,000 origin-destination, including indirect connection, out of about 115,000
formally allowed. Many relations, including some very important in terms of total mobility, are still unexplored and left
to competing transport modes (rail and air).
Our analyses suggest that the most promising relations for possible new services appear to be those among the Centre
and the North-East of the country, with a polarisation on urban areas having limited rail services.
Transport mobility plans, especially at the urban scale, are commonly produced by administrations... more Transport mobility plans, especially at the urban scale, are commonly produced by administrations. However, the decisions involved are often taken on a qualitative basis or, at best, by setting some indicators and verifying how much a plan or a scenario reaches the politically decided targets (e.g. “increasing by 10% the use of bike”). However, given that decisions on plans involve relevant public investments and may also determine radical changes in users’ costs, a more quantitative and comprehensive approach to the evaluation is needed. Cost Benefit Analysis is the tool commonly used to assess public expenditure, but its application to mobility plans introduces further practical and theoretical complexity. The aim of the paper is to discuss how CBA can be used to assess complex and multi-modal mobility plans (involving for example both infrastructural investments and lighter sustainable mobility policies). Firstly we will discuss which are the complexities involved by plan assessments vs. infrastructure assessments. Secondly, we will revise the available approaches, namely the Generalised Costs comparison approach, the Rule of Half and the logsum functions for the perfect integration between CBA and transport models. Thirdly, we will comment the main advantages and problems of the last approach, namely, the logsum, clarifying why it is the most suitable for the assessment of plans made of a broad range of policies and actions. Finally, we will outline an ongoing application for the assessment of the SUMP (Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan) of Milan’s municipality.
In this paper we analyse some possible unconventional factors of efficiency in public transport. ... more In this paper we analyse some possible unconventional factors of efficiency in public transport. The occasion for such analysis rises from a case study in the southern Italian region of Sicily. Most of the regional bus service is here historically franchised to some local private bus companies, without tenders or any other form of competition. The structure of the network has never been planned ex-ante, as it is the result of negotiations among bus companies, local and regional authorities. Though this situation is obviously quite far from indications of the regulation theory, it results in a surprisingly efficient system, with very low unit costs. An analysis of this situation is here carried out in order to understand which factors are forcing those companies to be efficient and which problems this situation may generate. The quality and effectiveness of the offered service is also reckoned. Two factors seem to be most relevant to this results: the relatively low level of subsidies together with the fact of being private operators (rather an exception than a rule in Italy). In order to improve their efficiency, those companies also merged together but eventually split again in the last decades in order to reach a more efficient size and suggesting the presence of possible diseconomies of scale in the sector. Taking for granted that a form of regulation is needed, it is here suggested that regulatory strategies should adapt to this counterintuitive fact and not destroy the incentives already effective in the present situation. Our suggestion is to prefer medium sized tenders rather than large ones, not only for granting more contestability, but also for financial reasons.
This paper aims at analysing the methodology used for financing large infrastructure projects in ... more This paper aims at analysing the methodology used for financing large infrastructure projects in Italy. In particular, it focuses on the Italian highway sector, where in the last years many projects have been launched using new financial instruments. The paper discusses three of these "instruments". The first one is the Project Financing, discussed starting from a general review, analyzing also the different typologies used, the risks involved and their allocation among the various subjects that take part in the PF mechanism. A special case concerns the recently introduced model used for the Italian highways, known as "PF with takeover compensation". There are two other important mechanisms used for financing infrastructure projects in Italy: the exploitation of road demand rigidity and the spreading of the investment over the entire network, favouring larger concessions. We conclude that all these three mechanisms present deep flaws in terms of transparency and of contradiction with economic feasibility criteria (that have to dominate the public investment rationale).
The assessment of infrastructure investments is often affected by inaccuracy in traffic forecasti... more The assessment of infrastructure investments is often affected by inaccuracy in traffic forecasting, optimism bias and overvaluation of expected benefits. In general, even when such misrepresentation is not strategically introduced by proponents to push their projects, valuators and decision makers must cope with the existence of a risk of demand levels below expectations and consequent problem of overinvestment.
In the last 20 years light rail and tramway schemes have been introduced in many European cities.... more In the last 20 years light rail and tramway schemes have been introduced in many European cities. The effects of these schemes over public transport patronage, and the benefits they have generated, seem to have sometimes been overestimated. The availability of some experiences helps in deriving some reflections about the circumstances in which light rail schemes can be truly convenient compared to bus systems.
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy (JTEP), 2014
In the last 20 years light rail schemes have been introduced in many European cities. Previous st... more In the last 20 years light rail schemes have been introduced in many European cities. Previous studies indicate the benefits of these schemes seem to have been sometimes overestimated. This paper tries to understand the circumstances in which light rail schemes can be truly worthwhile compared to bus systems, by developing a simplified cost–benefit model. The proposed methodology is suitable for the early appraisal of any new urban light rail line and can be used specifically for comparative purposes. The paper finishes with some investment threshold nomograms and an application ex-post to a new tram line built in Italy.
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Papers by Paolo Beria
country to major destinations, giving an important contribution to social and geographical inclusion, but remaining
limited in absolute numbers and receiving marginal attention by the general public and even policy makers.
After years of stability, the industry is going to face radical changes in the next years since its liberalisation process,
gradually started in 2007, was completed at the end of 2013, changing from exclusive concessions to non-exclusive
authorisations.
In this paper we perform some spatial and scenario analyses, with particular reference to competing transport modes
and new potential markets.
The industry supplied more than 88 million bus-km in 2012, serving about 2.6 billion passenger-km. The existing
network, providing a particularly extensive service in the South and in the Centre of the country, directly serves 2/3 of
Italian population.
New opportunities are arising as a consequence of liberalisation, changes in competing modes (in particular long
distance railway services) and changes in characteristics of part of the country also as a consequence of more recent
internal migration phenomena.
Coach services in 2013 are serving only 27,000 origin-destination, including indirect connection, out of about 115,000
formally allowed. Many relations, including some very important in terms of total mobility, are still unexplored and left
to competing transport modes (rail and air).
Our analyses suggest that the most promising relations for possible new services appear to be those among the Centre
and the North-East of the country, with a polarisation on urban areas having limited rail services.
decisions involved are often taken on a qualitative basis or, at best, by setting some indicators and verifying how much a
plan or a scenario reaches the politically decided targets (e.g. “increasing by 10% the use of bike”). However, given that
decisions on plans involve relevant public investments and may also determine radical changes in users’ costs, a more
quantitative and comprehensive approach to the evaluation is needed.
Cost Benefit Analysis is the tool commonly used to assess public expenditure, but its application to mobility plans
introduces further practical and theoretical complexity.
The aim of the paper is to discuss how CBA can be used to assess complex and multi-modal mobility plans (involving
for example both infrastructural investments and lighter sustainable mobility policies). Firstly we will discuss which are
the complexities involved by plan assessments vs. infrastructure assessments. Secondly, we will revise the available
approaches, namely the Generalised Costs comparison approach, the Rule of Half and the logsum functions for the perfect
integration between CBA and transport models. Thirdly, we will comment the main advantages and problems of the last
approach, namely, the logsum, clarifying why it is the most suitable for the assessment of plans made of a broad range of
policies and actions. Finally, we will outline an ongoing application for the assessment of the SUMP (Sustainable Urban
Mobility Plan) of Milan’s municipality.