Supercomputers reveal how small ocean processes influence storms

For decades, scientists assumed that only large ocean temperature patterns covering 200 kilometers (124 miles) or more could strongly influence storms. Now, by leveraging advances in computing power, a team of scientists from UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center have discovered that small-scale ocean processes can have a much larger influence on storm development than previously thought.

The study, published Jan. 30, 2025, in Communications Earth & Environment, found that narrow fronts, where ocean surface temperatures change by 5°C (9°F) over just 10 kilometers (6 miles), significantly contribute to the heat transfer from the ocean into the atmosphere that powers mid-latitude winter storms.

The results also revealed that these small-scale fronts transport moisture from the ocean some 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) into the atmosphere, accounting for half the rainfall in some parts of mid-latitude storms. This previously unknown mechanism adds substantial moisture and heat to the atmosphere, potentially intensifying storms.

These findings suggest that devoting computing power to running higher-resolution models capable of capturing these small-scale interactions could provide more accurate predictions of storm intensity and rainfall. Future research will explore how these mechanisms affect other phenomena like atmospheric rivers while seeking to quantify how much these processes influence overall storm intensity.