Tuvalu: not drowning, just waving

Since Tuvalu “stopped” the CopenHagen Hug-In yesterday to call for even greater impositions on the world’s producers  – sparking cheers from ignorant young “climate activists” in the room—saying in essence that sea levels are rising at an increasing rate, that industrial production is causing the increase, and therefore without a complete shut-down of the world’s economies low-lying Tuvalu itself will soon be buried under sixty centimetres of water, and the world’s producers are responsible, and should be made to pay.

Sounds like a money grab to me.

And sounds like all those “climate activists” should start getting their “science” from somewhere other than an Al Gore movie.

Because that fact is that Tuvalu’s very real problems have nothing to do with global warming.

Let’s start with seal level. The mean world sea level has been rising at around 3mm per year for at least the last century, and the latest figures confirm that this rate has continued in recent decades. The rise has been constant for at least a century. No acceleration, no increase; no increase, nobody to blame. Which means Tuvalu, Kiribati, Vanuatu, the Maldives, and Uncle Tom Cobley and all should look to other means to rescue themselves from their penury instead of coming to the world’s conclaves with a begging bowl in one hand and a gun at the world’s producers with the other.

Because there’s no doubt at all that there’s been no rising sea levels due to global warming: since the rise has been constant and has accompanied periods of both cooling and warming, it’s simply not possible to draw that sort of conclusion.

And there’s no doubt either that sea levels themselves around Tuvalu itself haven’t been rising at all (as data gathered by the National Tidal Facility of Adelaide demonstrates).

But the fact remain that all those islands do have problems with sea water. So what’s going on?

Well, despite what everyone knows or think they know about Tuvalu, as the late John Daly pointed out a few years back,

The reported `plight' of the Tuvaluans is not about sea level rise at all - it's about over-population. With such a high population density, the fresh water table on the atolls is subject to rapid depletion, especially in dry years. In addition, the development which would follow from such a high density will bring the inevitable coastal erosion, a problem which the Tuvalu government falsely blames on climate change and sea level rise. Tide gauge data from all around the South Pacific shows the same pattern as the one at Funafuti - no sea level rise. It is, and always was, a bogus claim, with few in the outside world bothering to check the accuracy of the claim.”

Now, you might object that John Daly wrote those words back in 2001, and that things have changed since then – and you’d be right.  One thing has changed. What’s changed is that the outside world has started to realise this is all a load of horse manure. Indeed, when a British High Court did bothered to check the accuracy of the claim, as found in the very Al Gore film that those dimwit “climate activists” got their climate learning from, it discovered that the film was “littered with nine inconvenient untruths,”* including the one Tuvaluans thought would be their meal ticket.

Too bad that the world is now on to them. They were told by the CopenHagen group gropers to go take a hike.

* * * * *

* Regarding the Goracle’s film, be a good time for you to check out the nine "errors" found by the British court, the "thirty-five" inconvenient truths found by Christopher Monckton, or the 120 one-sided, misleading, exaggerated, speculative, or wrong assertions that Marlo Lewis points out in his 'Skeptics Guide to An Inconvenient Truth.

* * Just to counter the notion that non-New Zealand readers might hold, as a result of Al Gore’s lies, that New Zealand has been inundated by thousands of “climate refugees” fleeing Tuvalu, the raw figures are these (from the 'Pacific Profiles: 2006'  report of the NZ Statistics Department):

In 2006, Tuvaluan were the seventh largest Pacific ethnic group in New Zealand, making up 2,625 or 1 percent of New Zealand's Pacific population.

• The Tuvaluan population increased by 34 percent (660) between 2001 and 2006 [largely through births].
• Tuvaluans born in New Zealand account for 37 percent (954) of the total Tuvaluan population.

A Pacific New Freeland?

Andrew B spies an opportunity based on this news report from Tuvalu:

"At the primary school in Funafuti, children are taught about climate changefrom the age of six. They are also learning what it means to emigrate, because this could be the last generation of children to grow up in Tuvalu. Its peopleare already in flight. More than 4,000 [allegedly] live in New Zealand [as ‘economic refugees’], and the Tuvaluan government is planning the migration of the remaining 10,000."

Which leaves an opening for New Freelanders, says Andrew:

So these Islands are going to be abandoned - some already have been. I sense an opportunity for libertarians who don't buy into all this global warming rubbish. We go over there, buy up people's land as they abandon it, dredge the islands that are already under water and dump it on those remaining, and then declare our freedom.

Sounds like a plan. I’ll put it to the Kaimai Thirteen. Meanwhile, here’s what Everybody Knows (or Should Know) About Tuvalu.

"Sea level is not rising"

Vincent Gray reckons it's time to feel sorry for warmists, since "their most cherished beliefs are under threat," poor dears.

The "Globe" is not "Warming", alas, and all they can say about is that "There is a warming trend."

And:

The sea level is not rising.

No wonder the warmists are getting more shrill. They've been out in force, notes Gray, to combat a recent Australian study in the Pacific that confirms that, as the chart shows, "since about 2001 there has been no change in sea level whatsoever for any of the islands studied, including Tuvalu which every global warmer knows is sinking as an act of religious faith... the most accurate recent figures show that Tuvalu, and 11 other Pacific Islands, are not sinking. The sea level is almost constant."

Read Dr Gray's article for more, including more on the "the steady retreat from the peer review system which is supposedly sponsored by the IPCC, provided they can control it, but abandoned as soon as they wish to evade unexpected criticism."

As Australian scientist David Evans points out, ""On global warming, public policy is where the science was in 1998. Due to new evidence, science has since moved off in a different direction."

For more evidence on this score keep an eye on the two anti-industrial "emissions trading schemes" proposed by both Labour and National, neither of whom are resiling from schemes that will destroy the parts of the economy that Alan Bollard hasn't already, despite the science having already passed them by.

UPDATE: By the way, if you'd like to see how poorly the predictions of NASA's James Hansen, warmist-in-chief, are panning out, take a look here.

The claim that sea level is rising "is a total fraud."

Yesterday I promoted an upcoming talk that I'm genuinely looking forward to, London Montessori trainer Cheryl Ferreira talking on 'The Path to Independence' (in Auckland on 16 July). Owen McShane has another date to put in your diary:

In a remarkable and entertaining interview, (from June 22, 2007 EIR Economics 33) Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner argues convincingly, and with excellent credentials, that the "Claim that sea level is rising is a total fraud."

Anyone involved with the RMA in any way should read this essay and ponder the implications. After all, District and Regional Plans routinely accept as a fact that New Zealand is about to suffer widespread inundation. Decision-makers and submitters use this scenario as an excuse to keep us all well away from the seaside or even from the Coast.

If you want to challenge Dr Morner, you will have the opportunity to do so in person because he will be visiting New Zealand (courtesy of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition) and will be making presentations in Wellington, 1-3 August, and in Auckland 4-7 August. He will be talking specifically about sea levels around the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, and around Tuvalu and Vanuatu in our own South Pacific.

The Centre will advise you of details of these lectures as they come to hand.

Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner is the head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in Sweden. He is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Dr. Mörner has been studying the sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 35 years.

This quote should whet your appetite: All the true sea level specialists agreed on this figure, that in 100 years, we might have a rise of 10 cm, with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10 cm—that's not very much. And in recent years, I even improved it, by considering also that we're going into a cold phase in 40 years. That gives 5 cm rise, plus or minus a few centimeters. That's our best estimate.

What 'everybody knows' about Tuvalu

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died... - Leonard Cohen

What else does everybody know?

Well, we all know sea levels are rising, don't we. We know that sea level rises are going to sink Tuvalu with ten years, don't we. We know that 'climate refugees' from Tuvalu are going to flood New Zealand, don't we. We all know it. The BBC knows it. Oxfam knows it. Australian politicians all know it. Pacific Islands leaders know it (and they want compensation). Nick Smith, Gordon Copeland and David Parker know it (scroll down to Q. 5). Helen Clark knows it. Al Gore knows it. And Al Gore's movie-goers all know it.

Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost

Everybody knows it, so it must be true, mustn't it? Well, guess what. In fact, don't guess, have a look at that graph below, based on data from National Tidal Facility, Adelaide, who confirm that "there has been no significant rise in sea level in Tuvalu over the past 22 years."

As John Daly reported a few years back,

The reported `plight' of the Tuvaluans is not about sea level rise at all - it's about over-population. With such a high population density, the fresh water table on the atolls is subject to rapid depletion, especially in dry years. In addition, the development which would follow from such a high density will bring the inevitable coastal erosion, a problem which the Tuvalu government falsely blames on climate change and sea level rise. Tide gauge data from all around the South Pacific shows the same pattern as the one at Funafuti - no sea level rise. It is, and always was, a bogus claim, with few in the outside world bothering to check the accuracy of the claim.

Dr Vincent Gray & Michael Field update the fairy tale here [pdf]. Compensation? In their dreams.

LINKS: Lyrics: 'Everybody Knows' - Leonard Cohen
Tuvalu cons the Kiwis - John Daly (Oct, 2001)
Don't boo-hoo for Tuvalu - Patrick Michael, Cato
The truth about Tuvalu - Dr Vincent Gray, Climate Science Coalition [5-page PDF]

RELATED: Politics, Global Warming, Science, Nonsense