Showing posts with label Steven Joyce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steven Joyce. Show all posts

Wednesday, 7 December 2016

National leader/new PM: Your pick? [updated]

 

Unless you know something I don’t, there’s nothing to pick between any of the contenders for John Key’s job when it comes to rolling back the state. To my knowledge, the credentials of all of them on that score measures pretty close to zero. At best.

But let us know you have any cogent thoughts about any of them – or why they might be especially good or bad at the job.

And in the spirit of #dick’sdailyquestions, maybe answer this one for us too:

Q: How will John Key's resignation affect your everyday life?

UPDATE: While updating the archives, amid discovering Bennett and Joyce were both much more nannying than I’d remembered, and that Jonathan Coleman had barely attracted any mention over the years, I discovered this amusing idea from Not PJ’s Bernard Darnton for a new reality TV show that could, with these contestants, be once again very topical. He called it Benny TV:

Here's a new 'reality' TV that someone might like to pitch to Julie Christie.  Or perhaps an idea for some good research for a keen statistician.

Time for a top-rating prime-time TV show to answer the question:  “Who’s the country's biggest beneficiary?  Who really is the biggest moocher on the taxpayer, the biggest sucker on the state tit, the biggest bludger, trough-snuffler and rent-seeking-rort-mongering-entitlement-bogan in the country.”

You can see the show now, can’t you.

“Our next guest is the new Minister of Housing 'Whack-it-on-Your-Bill Phil' Heatley – a man who takes the idea of “state houses” so seriously he’s tried to corner that market himself.  A man with so many houses being paid for by so many taxpayers it would take a Cook Islands taw lawyer to work out.

“Could he be the country’s biggest beneficiary?

“Or is it the new Mistress of Police, Judith ‘Crusher’ Collins, whose arse isn’t so big that she can’t shoot up a taxpayer-funded housing loophole when she sees one, or a good old-fashioned taxpayer-funded limo ride when she can get one.

“Or the new Welfare Matron, Paula Benefit, who’s racked up a whole lifetime on the taxpayers’ tit – “a poster girl for National’s welfare policies” she called herself when she was appointed to head up NZ’s biggest spending department-- and doesn’t look like stopping any time now."

“Or is it our current Minister of Finance, Beneficiary Bill, who pulls down a bigger salary than any business would ever pay him, and claims still extra for having "a place of residence" he visits around twice every year?  A man with so many children only a thousand-dollar-a-week taxpayer subsidy is apparently enough to keep the whole brood together.

“Champion effort that.

“Or could it be it’s the former Minister of Finance Dodger Rugless, who likes to take advantage of the taxpayers' largesse to swan around on foreign holidays, making sure it’s us who picks up his tab?

“Or is it one of EnZed’s former ministers or Prime Ministers, one of them who hasn’t been picked up the latest News From the Trough, but who got a taste for things taxpayerish early on and is unable to kick the habit?  One of the former tit-suckers who can't take their mouth from the teat, and who's pulling down all the free travel and perks and the platinum-plated politicians' superannuation scheme that we're all paying for?

“What about the former Minister of Wine & Cheese Jonathan Hunt, or former PMs Shipley, Bolger, Palmer, Moore -- or the UN's new pin-up girl Helen Clark? Could one of them be our champion?”

"Stay tuned for another thrilling episode of Who’s the Biggest Beneficiary?  Brought to you, naturally, by NZ on Air, so you can see more of who you’re paying for.”

Well, maybe not such great TV – although you would see plenty of red herrings and a lot of scuttling for cover. But high time surely for someone to answer the question.

Could be fun!

.

Tuesday, 13 September 2016

Seymour bags the National Socialists

 

National Party members and MPs used to be horrified when Libertarianz called them National Socialists. Now, they issue press releases boasting about their prowess at redistribution, prompting ACT’s David Seymour to state the obvious:

The ACT Leader has lambasted the Government over what he calls it's "socialist streak" - calling for tax relief for New Zealand's top earners.
    He said Government "boasting" about income redistribution took "campaigning from the right and governing from the left to a whole new level."
    His comments come after Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce released Treasury data showing income redistribution had increased, with the top 10 per cent of households forecast to pay 37.2 per cent of income tax in 2016/17, compared with 35.5 per cent in 2007/08.
    "The National Party has quit hiding its socialist streak – it's boasting about it," said Seymour.
    "Once again, ACT has to ask: What's the point in electing a National government that taxes and spends like a Labour one?"

I’ve always wondered.

.

Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Uber-disruptive technology is irreversible

“In capitalist reality as distinguished from the textbook picture, it is not [so-called perfect]
competition that counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology, the
new source of
supply, the new type of organization ... competition which ... strikes not at the
margins of the
profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.”
- Joseph Schumpeter on capitalism’s creative destruction

Guest post by Jason Krupp

Rapid technological change is more often than not a painful thing, littered with the bodies of those firms and industries that failed to adapt - just ask Kodak, Betamax and former mobile phone giant Nokia.

That painful change is brewing again, this time in the form of the next generation of transport technologies, such as Uber. For those unfamiliar with the firm, it effectively lets anyone become a taxi driver using their own car through a proprietary mobile payment and passenger matching system.

It is a disruptive change that threatens taxi industries across the globe, and has been greeted by protests and anger from the incumbents. French taxi unions and drivers, for example, recently brought Paris and much of France to a standstill to demonstrate against Uber by blocking roads, tipping cars, burning tires [and scaring Courtney Love, not an easy thing to do – Ed.].

To some degree, the rage is understandable when you consider that the protestors have made significant investments in taxi medallions, vehicles and businesses in the belief that the revenue model is stable and they could earn a profit. Readers might also feel inclined to topple cars in the streets of Paris if they had paid NZ$385,000 for a taxi licence, only to have their lunch stolen by some uppity tech firm from California.

But equally understandable is the rage of customers, who have had to bear the brunt of ever rising taxi fares. New Zealand is no exception, with the unenviable distinction of being the most expensive place in the world to catch a taxi, despite being partially deregulated in 1989. Indeed, Christchurch, Queenstown, Wellington and Auckland all rank in the world’s top 10 for least-affordable taxi fares. These fares compare poorly with ridesharing, according to an admittedly limited comparative test by Consumer NZ, which showed Uber rides in Wellington were significantly cheaper than taxis.

The price differential is explained to some degree by over-regulation, such as the one introduced by then-Transport Minister Steven Joyce that taxis must have a camera installed to prevent crime. Another is the requirement that metered taxi operators have 24-hour despatchers. The effect of both these rules and others had been to limit competition by tipping the market in favour of large well-capitalised taxi operators and against smaller incumbents, to the detriment of passengers.

This safety issue is an important one because the industry is likely to argue it vociferously, as the New Zealand Taxi Federation has done with the use of smart phones as a metering device. (Under New Zealand law, Uber drivers must now offer a fixed price for a trip). Industry groups are likely to push the case that if taxis need to install cameras by law, then Uber drivers must do so too.

Yet this line of attack fails to consider the nature of the Uber service.

Passengers have to pre-register to make use of the service, as do drivers, since Uber is the financial intermediary between the two.

imageIf a driver assaults a passenger, or vice versa, Uber knows who both of them are and can pass this information on to the police as appropriate. And since all payments are electronic and no cash changes hands, it greatly diminishes the chance of drivers picking up passengers who plan to do a runner, or whose motivation is to rob the driver. As such, the requirement to install a camera is unlikely to significantly boost safety, but it will raise the barrier to entry for Uber drivers. [The primary motivation for existing industry groups to push for this – Ed.]

The Cato Institute recently published a paper that looked into whether ridesharing apps like Uber and competitor Lyft are safe in the US. The paper found that while there were legitimate safety concerns for passengers, they applied to the industry as a whole; the vetting procedures used by Uber and Lyft were found to be superior to those of the taxi firms. Likewise, Uber and Lyft drivers enjoyed significant advantages over their taxi compatriots as far as crime was concerned because they operated on a cashless-basis.

Should the safety argument fail, the next line of attack against Uber is likely to focus on the nature of employment. Uber’s opponents and labour groups argue that the firm flouts labour laws, and avoid paying employee entitlements by classing drivers as independent contractors. Political commentator Gordon Campbell recently made this exact point, citing a recent case where the Labor Commissioner of California ruled that Uber drivers were indeed employees. That the same decision would be reached here is less clear due to a broader test employed by the Employment Relations Authority, as was recently noted by employment lawyer Susan Hornsby-Geluk. Indeed, David Farrar has also made the point that if Uber were such a bad deal for drivers, why are most of them taxi drivers?

Change is painful, particularly when it is forced by disruptive competition.

This is indisputable.

The Cato paper notes that there are legitimate issues with the ridesharing business model, notably around privacy and insurance coverage. However, it concludes that these are relatively minor, and “[t]he appropriate response is to modernise and rationalise the out-dated and heavy-handed [taxi] restrictions, not extend restrictions to the ride sharing industry”.

The challenge, according to Cato, is that many lawmakers and regulators have not adapted their thinking to include the sharing economy, which “fits awkwardly into existing regulatory frameworks governing taxis.”

Luckily in New Zealand we are not overly burdened with this problem. [So far Ed.] Speaking at the International Transport Forum in Germany recently, Transport Minister Simon Bridges promised that his government would apply the lightest regulatory burden possible on ridesharing operators. The light-touch approach has also been endorsed by David Seymour, Act Party MP and Parliamentary Under-Secretary to the Minister for Regulatory Reform.

Both should be praised for correctly reading the direction of technological change, judging that it benefits consumers, and supporting it. To do otherwise would be Luddite-ism, a term that takes its name from 19thcentury workers who fought the introduction of productivity-enhancing technologies in the textile industry by destroying them.

The problem the Luddites failed to recognise at the time is that the introduction of new technology is almost always irreversible, and that is as true now as it was in the industrial revolution.

Yes the change can be painful, but fighting the inevitable only prolongs the suffering.


Jason Krupp is a research fellow at the New Zealand Initiative. 

Follow him on Twitter.

RELATED POSTS:

Wednesday, 23 April 2014

New Zealand’s Bubble Economy Is Vulnerable [updated]

Guest post by Hugh Pavletich

The recent Forbes e-edition article by Jesse Colombo assessing the New Zealand economy, “12 Reasons Why New Zealand's Economic Bubble Will End In Disaster” (about which we blogged here yesterday) seems to have created quite a stir, creating extensive media coverage in New Zealand.

One article alone, Michael Field’s major Fairfax article ‘NZ bubble 'going to burst', stimulated a remarkable 500+ comments.

It didn’t take too long for the politicians to react, with Acting Finance Minister Steven Joyce downplaying it, unhelpfully personally attacking Mr Colombo, with Labour’s David Cunliffe and David Parker largely agreeing with Mr Colombo’s assessment.

But then, they would all say that, wouldn’t they.

Mr Colombo’s initial assessment (a comprehensive report is to follow) was from a financial expert’s perspective, and rested largely on New Zealand’s level and fragility of mortage debt, and local banks’ exposure to it.

Let’s consider, looking specifically at housing affordability, whether Mr Colombo is correct from a structural perspective.

Tuesday, 22 April 2014

“12 Reasons Why New Zealand's Economic Bubble Will End In Disaster”

Forbes magazine columnist Jesse Colombo invites international investors enamoured with NZ’s “rockstar economy” to think again – offering 12 Reasons Why New Zealand's Economic Bubble Will End In Disaster, pointing out among other things the conjunction of historically ultra-low (unsustainably low) interest rates and a mortgage bubble grown by 165% in a little over a decade, with the fact that nearly half of all NZers mortgages have floating interest rates, with mortgages themselves accounting for nearly 60% of banks’ loan portfolios.

So sit tight waiting for the pop when interest rates head back towards reality.

On top of this he sees the industrialised world’s fourth-worst household debt-to-GDP ratio, and a place in which agriculture as a source of wealth is vastly outstripped by “the finance, insurance and business service sector,” a sector in which banks “dangerously exposed to the country’s property and credit bubble” comprise the lion’s share.

Naturally, National Party cheerleader Keeping Stock has a cogent dismissal.  “Bubble? What Bubble?” says the blindfolded blogger responsible for a constant election-year refrain of “more good news” delivered by his heroes. “Cherry-picking,” “old news” and basic ridicule are about all the criticism offered however of Colombo’s case– apart from Keeping Stock’s hero Steven Joyce, who offers little more analysis than the word “alarmist” and a suggestion of similarity between Colombo and Moon-Man Ken Ring.

I can’t help thinking that if Colombo’s argument could be as easily dismissed, then they’d actually try to address it.

And then there’s Infometrics managing director Gareth Kiernan, who concedes “If his predictions ever came to pass then the economy would be in trouble, but no one was really forecasting that to happen…”

Friday, 28 March 2014

Team New Zealand: Sailing in Subsidised Waters

Did you see a government department released a report yesterday informing us that government spending our money supporting Team New Zealand made us all $50 million richer? Yeeha! If only they’d spent even more.

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce says the $36 million of taxpayers' money pumped into the last America's Cup challenge directly benefited the New Zealand economy to the tune of $87 million.
    Joyce … released two evaluation reports, both an
independent evaluation [sic] of the Government’s investment in Emirates Team New Zealand… and an evaluation of New Zealand Trade and Enterprise’s leveraging programme in San Francisco.
    "The economic benefit from our investment in Team New Zealand is considerable. From a $36 million taxpayer investment,” Joyce said, “the evaluation shows an estimated positive impact of $87 million to the New Zealand economy."

Yeah right.

First: reports prepared for, and and paid for by government departments, are not independent – no matter what their press releases say.

Second: Even if you believe the figures, the “us” that was allegedly made much richer is a different group of folk to the “we” who were plundered on their behalf. But if you think a net gain to Grant Dalton makes up for your net loss, I invite you to knock on his exquisite front door and invite yourself in as if you own the place. You’ll find You’ll find that’s a form of redistribution Mr Dalton et al is unwilling to contemplate.

Fact is, only in government accounts, where (as our sailing-brother’s keeper) all our wealth is measured together, can a forced redistribution from long-suffering taxpayers to high-earning subsidised sailors be measured as a net gain to all of us.

Third: neither the report on subsidised sailing nor the other on corporate welfare, both touted as “cost-benefit” analyses,” properly address the cost to taxpayers. Or to put it in a way the report’s authors wouldn’t, the benefits that might have accrued to taxpayers if the the $36 million of taxpayers' money pumped into subsidising sailors had been left instead in taxpayers’ pockets

It estimates the “value added” by the spending of every one of those $36 million, but estimates not at all the value that might have been added by taxpayers themselves if it hadn’t been taken from them and distributed as high salaries and high-tech yachting equipment.  As if, you know, government subsidy is all benefit, whereas if they’d kept their own money Jack and Jill Taxpayer would have just, like, baked it into pies or something.

The alleged “economic impacts” of sailors’ spending their $36 million building and racing boats, buying houses, and paying restaurant and hotel bills is ramped up in the report by the international sponsorship it attracted and spent here by the even bigger spending in NZ of Oracle and Luna Rossa sailors (every dollar of which it explicitly assumes was only spent here because of every taxpayer dollar), and by a “multiplier effect” that inflates the effect of every dollar spent by the amount of “re-spending” of that dollar – while ignoring whatever “multiplier” might have applied to whatever productive spending you and I might have done with our own dollars if left in our own pockets. 1

That spending on restaurant and hotel bills by the way is significant. Despite the talk of boatbuilding benefits and the like, the report informs taxpayers that “the sector receiving the greatest share of [Team New Zealand]’s domestic operational spend was ‘cultural and recreational services.’” And they don’t mean the cost of Maori concert parties.

Monday, 12 August 2013

Fear not, young home-buyers!

The National Party seems to reserve its party conferences for announcements of the feel-good but ineffective. Yesterday their leader, John Key, announced changes to NZ housing policies. If they have any effect at all, it will be negative.

The “big idea”—virtually the only idea in a conference billed by Bill English and Steven Joyce as “the conference of good ideas”—is to raise the house values under which buyers may attract a Kiwisaver or “Welcome Home” subsidy; and to raise this subsidy from bugger all to not much.

Even his audience of party faithful yawned—perhaps because it was accompanied by news that first-home buyers will also need a much greater deposit if they’re ever to get a mortgage, and perhaps because they knew that if this “big idea” will have any effect at all it will only be to raise demand, and as everyone knows the problems in New Zealand housing  are all on the supply side.  And increased demand raises prices.

But fear not, young home-buyers. Your ruling party has announced “big changes” on the supply side as well—changes to the Resource Management Act itself, the RMA, under whose iniquitous control all home-owners suffer. Unfortunately, those changes are about as big as their “big ideas” are small.

They range from the risible (make councils publish their fees, and put their District Plans on the internet!) to the ineffective—“a 10-day fast-track consent process for the simplest and most straightforward projects", which any council officer worth his salt will be able to get around by asking stupid questions to “stop the clock.” And if they know anything, it’s how to ask stupid questions.

Not to mention the requirement that “councils will be required to engage better with … local iwi.” Which “engagement” gives tribes even greater control over property that is not theirs’, and leads to consent processes involving this sort of thing.  Not mention this.

Oh yes, and then there’s the “housing accord” the Nats intend to agree with Auckland, to allow some house builders on some specified part of Auckland to build some houses outside the planners’ ring fence. A fig leaf of permissiveness in a sea of planning control.

Frankly, all of the changes—from not-so-big to not-so-serious—are as a pimple on the big bum of the biggest problem, which is that land-owners, home-builders and home-buyers are not free to contract with each other without a planner butting his nose in.

The problem, in other words, is not the details of the RMA. The problem is and always has been the idea of the RMA itself.

To build a shed on a farm costs more in consenting costs than building the shed. To subdivide land is about as chancy as buying a lotto ticket. Building a new house will see home-builders spending longer getting consents than they will getting subcontractors on site.  (Not to mention the fees, development levies, and various financial burdens imposed on consent applicants by councils under the powers given them by the RMA.)

The delays, costs, uncertainties and impositions of waiting (and hoping) for consents to be approved by cardiganned council planners spouting gobbledygook  have caused would-be home-builders around the country to take up fishing instead.

The problem at the heart of the RMA is that it requires people go to councils, cap-in-hand, and beg for the privilege to spend money building useful things on their own property.

This is the problem. The really big problem. It gives control over cities to those with ideas overflowing with grandomania, and takes it away from those who really own things and want to get on with improving them.

We need to resurrect the ancient assumption that property owners can do what they wish, construct what they wish, on their own land, just as long as they do not harm surrounding landowners—bring back the common law that has seven-hundred years of sophistication in protecting both the environment and property rights.

Only when the RMA is dead and buried can this basic ideal of freedom and affordability be realised.

If Environment Minister Amy Adams starts talking about Small Consents Tribunals or a codification of basic common law principles I’ll be much more impressed. Until then, don’t talk to me about her party’s “big ideas.”

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Here’s the good news about Russel Norman’s money printing plan [updated]

First, here’s John Clark explaining Quantitative Easing:

And now, the really, really good news about Russel Norman’s plan to print money to bring down our exchange rate was the response. Yesterday we saw a tidal wave of rational outrage at the Ginger Whinger’s insanity. 

John Key told Breakfast TV, "If printing money made you rich, Zimbabwe would be the richest country on the planet, and it's not.” He said the money plan was ‘wacky’ and could create a financial crisis. And Steven Joyce called it “a sign of panic.”

Given the number of politicians and central bankers around the prepared to embrace the wacky, this response was very encouraging to hear.

As was the response from the commentariat, despite the regular trial balloons promoting the idea launched  by popular commentators Bernard Hickey and Rod Oram. Perhaps the intellectual acumen of our commentariat is more informed than we might think.

  • Roger J. Kerr observed “the worry is that the Green Party’s economic policies generally resemble the Polish Shipyard model, which collapsed twenty years ago as it did not work.” Our currency is high because it is a commodity currency, good exporters have been hedging against the exchange rate, and in any case the dominant determinant of the NZ dollar currency value is what goes on in Australia. The immediate consequence of Russel’s money bomb, he says, would be lower real wages.
    Roger J Kerr explains why politicians should not be trusted with setting the NZ dollar currency value. – INTEREST.CO.NZ
  • NZIER’s Shamubeel Eaqub observes, “Greens' quake bond buying policy is not QE; It's the sort of 'debt monetisation' practised by Mugabe; Will see poor pay for quake rebuild via inflation.”
    The Greens’ policy for the Reserve Bank to buy bonds issued by the government to pay for the Christchurch rebuild was not the same as those policies, Eaqub told interest.co.nz.
    “It’s essentially monetising debt. It’s not even quantitative easing,” he said.
    “The idea of the quantitative easing that is happening in the US and Europe in particular is that they are trying to provide liquidity to banks to promote credit growth in the economy, through the private sector,” he said.
    “What [the Greens] are proposing is for the government to essentially monetise its liabilities through higher inflation.
    “It’s just monetisation of government debt - essentially saying that the central bank will provide credit to the government,” he said.
    In the US, while the Federal Reserve was buying up government debt through Treasury bond purchases, it was not ‘monetising’ Treasuries by buying them directly from the government with the newly created money.
    “The government of the US is still liable for that debt. But here [with the Greens' policy], you’re just going to give that money away. The Treasury bills that the Fed is buying are from the banks, to give liquidity to the banks, so the banks can then lend that money onto the economy,” Eaqub said.
    “Here they are saying [the Reserve Bank] should be buying bonds from the government. Those are two very, very different things,” he said.
  • "Putting money into the system would create a 'sugar rush' but it would quickly wear off.  When would they stop buying?" Mr McIntyre said no-one appeared to have thought of what happened to the extra money flooding around the system from governments buying up bonds when the financial crisis eased.
    Is printing more money the answer? – ODT

And on Twitter, Interest.Co.NZ’s Alex Tarrant posted:

BREAKING: Fuji Xerox approaches Green Party in early bid for printer procurement contract…

Most bloggers were horrified. Whale Oil posted this

image

David Farrar pulled out enough Zimbabwe currency to buy a small chocolate bar:

image

  • “Russel Norman is completely misrepresenting QE by saying that the recent crisis is “evidence it isn’t inflationary”.  QE was put in place to fight the fact that policy was too tight overseas, and they were trying to fight deflation – in essence the fact that inflation stayed near the “target band” in these countries is evidence that QE is indeed inflationary as you would expect … just in the way they were intending.”
    No QE free lunch for NZ – Matt Nolan, TVHE
  • “It's "only" going to be $2 billion that is quantitatively eased. And it's only to buy earthquake recovery bonds.
    Russel Norman must be daft if he expects us to swallow that. What he is proposing is simply the thin end of the wedge, and he will quickly find other justifications to print more and more money. And each time he does, inflation will rise, and life will get tougher for everyone, Green Party supporters included.”
    The thin end of the wedge – KEEPING STOCK
  • “I thought this madness died with Social Credit, but Greens (and Labour may not be far behind) have said that they want the NZ Reserve Bank to effectively start printing money. They think that NZ printing more money is a good way to increase the relative value of the US dollar. We might as well start burning our savings.”
    Greens literally believe money does grow on trees – David Farrar, KIWIBLOG
  • “Printing more money as Norman suggests , is one of the failed policies of the 70s and 80s that the late Sir Robert Muldoon might have favoured.”
    Green snake oil on sale – HOME PADDOCK
  • You can rely on Russel Norman to engage in reality evasion, but his latest attempt to introduce monetary policy into the Green Party's repertoire is laughable… Russel Norman knows that the money you hold should be worth less…
    QE has been the Keynesian response in Japan, the US, the UK and the Eurozone.  The mass destruction of value due to these bubbles popping has been filled by massive money printing, yet it has not resulted in a sustained kickstart to demand… It wasn't undertaken to improve export competitiveness.  It has demonstrably failed to boost Japan's economy.  It has created minor blips in the US economy, and nothing more.
    For The Standard to say that having a consistently high dollar is about speculators making money from New Zealand is demonstrable ignorance.  To think that, say cutting the value of the NZ$ by 25%, is good for the working poor (when it will raise prices of petrol, electrical goods, overseas holidays and any imported books, clothes), is bizarre.”
    Russel Norman says "fuck the poor" with his economic illiteracy – LIBERTY SCOTT

Even comments at the Herald and Stuff and on the blogs have been good:

  • "Norman has just added a new interpretation of "green" in politics. Previously it was just "green" as in environmental; now it's also "green" as in immature." – Terry
  • “More lunatic stuff from the Greens god forbid they ever get into power - the country will be sunk.” – Buster
  • “I liken this to a declaration of 'let them eat cake' indicating a profound gap in understanding economics.” – Demos
  • “Terrible idea. The impact against the US dollar may work out well for exporters, but think about how we will compare to the Australian dollar. More of our talent will move across the ditch for substantially higher wages.” – John
  • “To them money is free, it grows on trees and you just get the next generation to pay for current consumption.” – Prezzie
  • “Just when you think you can trust the Greens, they go and say something so stupid as to guarantee they will never be in charge. Printing more money is something a child would come up with.” – FMax
  • “What is quantitative easing?
    Short answer: It's an unconventional monetary tool used by central banks to stimulate the economy.
    America has been doing this since 2008. It has worked so well for them(sarcasm), that they decided to do it again and are actually deciding at the moment if they need to do it again.
    So by all means Green party, drag us down like the states, we just love to see all our hard earned cash get devalued and disappear while cost of living goes up even more.” – JW
  • “Question for Dr Norman. How much money would have to be created to reduce the overseas exchange rate by the 10 to 15 cents needed to make our exports to anywhere but Australia ( which is our main market and which takes 60% of our exports now at a reasonable exchange rate) competitive.” – Rosy Fenwicke
  • “Why are those other countries in that position. Because they printed funny money. Doubling nothing still equals nothing and it is like putting your head in the sand and pretending that the problem will go away.” – Robert Moody
  • “Playing the 'Zimbabwe' card now. You lose.” – Sylph Critical
  • “Have you actually had a look at what currency dilution has acheived for the US or the UK?
    Quantitative easing has failed again: What madness has seized our leaders! To extend Russel's "currency war" analogy from the other week, there's no point in trying to shoot when you're caught in the crossfire as we are.” – James Stephenson

Saturday, 6 October 2012

A Party of All the Talents #LibzConf2012 [updated]

UPDATE 2: Welcome Herald readers, with this clarification: No, we didn’t discuss merging with Act. But we did talk about a home for their many and increasing ex-members…

UPDATE 1: Lindsay Perigo’s speech here.

Thanks to everyone from Libz, Act, True Liberals, ALCP, Pirate Party, C&R and Auckland Now for a great conference. Here's what I said to the #LibzConf2012 conference this morning.
 

Good morning everyone.

My name is Peter. And I am a Recovering Libertarian. 

It began for me around 30 years ago. It started small. Just me and a few grams of Ayn Rand. But pretty soon I found myself with fellow addicts, gathering together to drink in John Locke, imbibe Thomas Jefferson, and to snort FA Hayek. 

17 years ago we met in a small smoke-filled room to set about spreading our addiction.

We had big plans for Project Libertarianz. 

We met, and we plotted, and we set out to make a revolution in people’s heads. 

We were hard-arses! flag-flyers. Non compromisers. Not for us the timid wimperings of focus groups too scared to frighten the horses. We plotted and planned and produced policies forged from the sterling silver of sound principle. All policies all principle all the way down the line. 
 
We planned to get these ideas and our policies into parliament, we said. By any means necessary, we said  

With a radio show, a magazine, and a small army of foot soldiers, we did. We got rid of the TV tax from outside parliament, a thankless victory but a hard-earned one. We got parties talking about one law for all; we got some of them offering a tax-free threshold. We got right-wing politicians starting to talk about decriminalising cannabis. 

But this wasn’t enough. We wanted MPs in parliament. Oh, we said we didn’t, we always said we didn’t. But we were in denial about our addiction. We knew we had to have MPs. We just found it impossible to get enough votes to have them. Or, for some reason, enough money to promote them properly.

And we found it impossible to find anyone amongst us who really wanted to be an MP. 

Partly because none of us actually even likes politics. Or politicans. 

We know deep down, all of us addicted libertarians do, that what Thomas Jefferson said is true—that whenever a man has cast a longing eye on political offices rottenness begins in his conduct. 

The only reason we libertarians are truly interested in politics is because politics can’t resist being interested in us.

Project Libertarianz began however with the explicit goal of getting Libertarianz MPs into parliament. It was right there on our brochures. Still is, as far as I know. 

But I think everyone who’s suffered from this addiction now knows the truth. 

It’s never going to happen. 

If it isn’t already obvious to you, then please remain seated while I tell you truth: Project Libertarianz has been a failure.

I’ll say that again. Project Libertarianz has been a failure. 

I say that not with any glee, only with huge disappointment. 

What we began with such promise was weighed down by the difficulty of running a never-noticed political party and beset by the never-ending problem of never-enough money.

But let’s be clear here. Project Libertarianz has failed just at the time it is most urgently needed.

We meet here now at a time when a hole the size of the ACT Party has appeared in National’s coalition partners; at a time when there has never been a more urgent need to articulate the goals of economic and social freedom. And to get that voice into parliament by any means necessary.

And I guess that we’re all here today means we understand that. 

So let’s be blunt about the reasons you’re all here. It isn’t just Project Libertarianz that’s been a failure, has it. So too has Project ACT. 

[Come on, how many recovering ACT members are there here? The first stage of any cure is accepting reality.] Project ACT has been a failure. If ACT’s lack of any real achievement hasn’t made it obvious—and I trust no-one here wants to defend the super-sized Auckland bureaucracy that ACT’s second-to-last leader delivered us-- If ACT’s lack of any real achievement hasn’t made it obvious; if the infighting and lack of direction in recent years hasn’t made it clear enough, then the size and quality of today’s ACT caucus surely has to. 

Is THAT what it was all for, all those years of effort? One super-powered mayoralty, and John Banks’s nose in the parliamentary trough again? 

Surely all those millions of dollars and all those years of effort should have delivered something much, much better.

And don’t fool yourself it will all change if you can just eject your current feral conservative from the leadership. The ACT brand is now so poisonous that instead of Don Brash dragging it up, the once well-respected man was dragged down himself by its toxic slick. 

So Project ACT and Project Libertarianz are both failures. 

And if success is measured by achieving measurable goals, then failure has unfortunately been the only thing about which the single-issue Legalise Cannabis Party has to boast.

And that’s despite virtually every MP in the New Zealand parliament happy to confess they’ve inhaled.

I think economic and social liberals from all parties—classical liberals, if you like—can learn from all our failures.

Project Act and Project Libertarianz are failures for opposite reasons.

ACT abandoned principle in favour of populism, and ended up losing both. Libz embraced principle over populism, and while we’ve succeeded in putting some of those principles on the public stage, it’s not as much as we’d hoped from 17 years of trying. 

For similar reasons, ALCP supporters have faced similar disappointment. And many convictions.  

Why the failures? 

Well, why did Project ACT fail? It’s principles are certainly sound, as they should be. they were written by the Libz founder. and I for one would have no difficulty embracing them as the foundation of a new party.

The principal object of the ACT Party is to promote an open, progressive and benevolent society in which individual New Zealanders are free to achieve their full potential.

To this end the ACT Party upholds the following principles:

that individuals are the rightful owners of their own lives and therefore have inherent rights and responsibilities; and
that the proper purpose of government is to protect such rights and not to assume such responsibilities.
 

Nothing there to argue with.

But it wasn’t that ACT’s MPs ever argued with the principles. They seemed to just forgot they were there. And where they should have been waging a battle of ideas against the enemies of their principles, instead they waged a battle of personalities within their own ranks.

And why did Project Libertarianz fail? Not because of any lack of principle, or of talent. Nor because of any lack of intellectual grunt. I still smile when I remember one journalist gleefully recounting the tale of one MP who shall remain nameless making the mortal error, as the journalist described it, of publicly engaging two lanky libertarians in intellectual combat. 

That was our reputation.

But it won us no seats. 

Our ACT critics were right. Victories like this, however delicious, were no substitute for being an MP in parliament with the one single goal of increasing freedom and rolling back the state. (The lack of such a goal being our own criticism of virtually every single ACT MP.

Why did we not get any traction? I’m sure you all have your own answers. We’ve always seen Project Libertarianz very much as a vehicle to educate people. But perhaps it is too early for people to hear what we have been saying. Perhaps, in what Lindsay fondly calls this pathetic authoritarian backwater, we always were just pissing in the wind. Perhaps we did just frightened the horses a little more than we needed to. Perhaps we scared people off.

That’s what Richard McGrath told TV3 last weekend. That our policies were too scary for most people. That they scared people off.

We were told that again during the week by someone putting up her hand to be our in-house Agony Aunt.“In the past,” said Deborah Coddington, who was once our party’s deputy leader.

the Libz narrow dogma -- total free market, wholesale selling of state assets including having all schools and hospitals run by private enterprise, the right to carry guns, and complete freedom to take whatever drugs you like so long as you accept the consequences -- have scared the bejesus out of people.

She’s probably right. We probably did. But someone did have to say those things were right, and so we said them.

And it was fun.
 
But if if I may continue her Agony Aunt column, she offers this advice: [Ahem]

Cliches are usually true,” she says. “as in there's only one way to eat an elephant: one bite at a time. So when you say you want freedom, you can only achieve it one step at a time. Don't terrify people who've been enchained for 30 years. It's like stripping them naked, when you should be persuading them they can just remove their overcoat. It will take time for some to be convinced they don't need to hold Nanny's hand.

Right again. It does. And don’t we know it.

So “finally,” she continues,

tell us what you're for, as well as what you're against. When campaigning for Act, this was a common criticism, and today when I switch on the news or pick up a newspaper, all I see are killings, crashes, our youth are all drunk, the country's broke, we're going to hell in a handcart.
How refreshing it would be for a change, to be asked to give my vote to a party with a sense of life.
 

Right once again. There is much in the present world about which to be honestly afraid. Hell, there’s enough just here at home about which to be terrified. But we need to explain simply how freedom makes things better.

If I may quote a libertarian litany from a fellow who essentially put up his hand last week to be our Agony Uncle, 

With all the this government is doing, said Matthew Hooton in last week’s NBR,

the classical liberal movement should be booming, especially with National’s support falling and the combined Labour/Green vote leading the polls. That ACT languishes on 0.5% underlines that party’s abject failure.

Government spending as a percentage of GDP has grown since 2008 and Finance Minister Bill English borrows hundreds of millions of dollars a month, mainly for welfare.

Prime Minister John Key broke his promise of further tax cuts, yet his pledges to keep Labour’s Working for Families, interest-free student loans and current superannuation entitlements remain inviolable.

Fiscal surplus is elusive. Even if New Zealand reaches balance for a year or two this decade, Treasury’s long-term fiscal outlook indicates that, without major policy change, public debt will surpass Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain well before mid-century.

A vast new bureaucracy has been established to hand out corporate welfare while other bureaucracies work on five-year plans.

The Ministry of Women’s Affairs, the Ministry of Maori Development, the Ministry of Pacific Island Affairs, the Ministry for Culture & Heritage, the Office of Ethnic Affairs, the Ministry for the Environment, NZ On Air and dozens of other unpopular agencies and quangos continue to exist.

Efforts to expand the private sector into health, education, welfare and ACC are half-hearted at best.

Nothing serious has been done to reform the Resource Management Act, which Steven Joyce rightly points out has already held up new job creation on the West Coast for seven years – with no end in sight.

There is no true freedom to contract under the Employment Relations Act.

While SOEs are not being privatised, management of Te Urewera National Park will be, as part of a Treaty of Waitangi deal with a tribe that didn’t sign it.

Rogue spy agencies are intercepting New Zealand residents’ communications and passing their business secrets to foreign powers.

The nanny state is re-emerging in welfare, including the requirement to enrol children in early childhood centres, seen by some as peddlers of socialist doctrine.

And now National is flirting brazenly with NZ First's Winston Peters…

  It is quite a list.

And, as he says, faced with that, the classical liberal movement should really be booming.

It should be a gift to parties like ours.

But they’re not booming, we’re dying.

And the faces of the alleged classical liberal parties today, if we don’t put something better out in the field ourselves, will be John Bank. And Colin Craig. And, if the United Future Party is successful in changing the name of his party to the Liberal Democrats, Peter Dunne-Nothing—the Minister of Internal Revenue.

Which is why Aunty Deborah and Uncle Matthew and many others like them in the media are just quietly beginning to realise that “Libertarianz representation on councils and parliament would undoubtedly be good for New Zealand.”Better especially than the much less liberal alternative of Colin Craig.

But like them, we must know that achieving that will not be easy.

THERE IS INDEED MUCH about which to be honestly afraid . Our job however is to tell people how more freedom can drive away the fears; how less government will makes their their petrol cheaper, their jobs more plentiful, their houses more affordable and their lives inside them better.

How refreshing it would be for a change, to ask people to give their vote to a party with a sense of life.

But there is opportunity from ACT’s collapse, from Libz realisation of failure, and from National’s desperation for new “partners.” Opportunity for a Party of All the Talents attracting like-minded adherents from all parts of the political spectrum. A party firmly based on sound principles, promoting a small suite of popular policies that get us there one principled step at a time.

Politics is the art of the possible. Does that mean compromise is necessary? Not a bit of it. Look again at that advice from our Agony Aunt. We’ve been trying to eat the whole elephant. But the best way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time. 

Even though we’d been snorting Ayn Rand, we hadn’t realised that Ayn Rand would not even agree with our approach. 

It’s too early for politics, she said fifty years ago. It still is. Too early to be standing at the goalposts demanding that everyone play towards us—which is what, with our all-or-nothing policies, we were doing.  

Ayn Rand talked instead about a “Party X” that wouldn’t just wave at everyone from the goalposts saying “up here,” but would dive into the ruck in the middle of the park and start moving the ball in the upward direction. 

Of course, Rand never used that metaphor. I doubt she ever saw a rugby game, But she did offer a brief prescription for her’ Party X,’ one that rolls back the state even from opposition : A party that uses its principles not as a set of handcuffs, or as something to be banished from its website. Rand’s Party X would use its principles as a weapon.

Party X [she said] would oppose statism and would advocate free enterprise. But it would know that one cannot win anybody’s support by repeating that slogan until it turns into a stale, hypocritical platitude—while simultaneously accepting and endorsing every step in the growth of government controls. 

Party X would know that opposition does not consist of declaring to the voters: “The Administration plans to tighten the leash around your throats until you choke—but we’re lovers of freedom and we’re opposed to it, so we’ll tighten it only a couple of inches.” 

Party X would not act as Exhibit A for its enemies, when they charge that it is passive, stagnant, “me-tooing” and has no solutions for the country’s problems. It would offer the voters concrete solutions and specific proposals, based on the principles of free enterprise. The opportunities to do so are countless, and Party X would not miss them.

No, it wouldn’t .

For example, every political bullfrog and his legrope is presently all afire about child poverty, about mothers being forced out to work, and children being forced into child care by an uncaring Paula Benefit. A Party X wouldn’t miss a challenge of that kind. It would proceed to demonstrate to everyone who would listen that early childhood centres survive on subsidies—which just barely covers the cost for the ever-increasing number of regulations they have to follow. It would point out to everyone that the salary of one parent in every couple is spent just paying their tax bill. That one partner in every couple is effectively going out to work just to pay their tax bill. 

Our Party X would demand to know why, say, the couple can’t even get a tax credit for any money spent on the education of their children, or for those children whose education they might choose to sponsor. And Party X would offer this proposal to voters: a tax exemption for the educational expenses of all citizens.

And Party X would also declare that if people really wanted to put other people first they might begin by taking their hand out of other people’s pockets.

For another example, every hand wringer and his box of tissues likes to wail about the problem of affordable housing. But they have no idea of how to make housing affordable. And they wail about it while doing all they can to make housing even more unaffordable. 

Now I rejoice in the fact there are now many more people already singing from our songsheet—about rolling back the planners’ power over land and building that makes our overregulated housing more than four times the build-cost of freer markets. 

But their proposed changes will take time. A Party X would want to know why councils couldn’t have small consents tribunals for projects under, say, $300,000. As former Federated Farmers president Charlie Pederson observed, "it's little, not large, that suffers most RMA pain." These tribunals, charged with using common sense and common law to make quick decisions, would fix that. 

And Party X would also declare the wider principle that when the productive have to ask permission from the unproductive in order to produce, then you may know that your culture is stuffed. 

I want us to be that Party X.  

And something more. 

We who understand the power of genuine freedom to deliver real prosperity might even realise we can spike the guns of our opponents, to silence those who are only too eager to put us in the ashcan of being “right wing”, by declaring that we are the party of affordability. Because only real economic freedom can make things that are genuinely affordable.

WE might even, if we were to stand for local govt in the likes of Auckland or Ashburton next next year, develop a sort of franchise, calling our loose franschise as necessary, Affordable Auckland, Affordable Ashburton and so on. 

Of course, our Party X would recognise the only way Wellington would ever be affordable would be the erasure of whole govt departments. 

And the only way Christchurch will ever be affordable again, or even a real city instead of a welfare project, will be if it can be made an enterprise zone.  

And we will say that. 

Face it, there are no shortage of opportunities.  

Our only choice should be which particular battles to fight. About which more later.

Let me tell you first what I mean by using our principles as a weapon. 

To start with, let’s realise that eating the elephant one bite at a time doesn’t mean compromise. Let’s realise that right now.  

We certainly have to recognise the realities of what’s politically possible, but that’s no reason at all to withdraw from a commitment to removing the leash from around our throats. Quite the opposite. 

What it does means is that we direct our work as far towards our final goals as possible, and wok fervently for every small gain we can get --- and we formulate our policies on principle to reflect that. Writer Robert Tracinski gives us the big tip:

In judging a measure, he says, one cannot hold it responsible for all aspects of a mixed economy - only for those aspects it changes.  

These changes can be evaluated by a straightforward application of the principle of individual rights: Does the reform remove some aspect of government control or does it add more control?...It is not a compromise to advocate reduced government control in one sphere even if controls in other spheres are left standing. It is a compromise, on the other hand, if one seeks to purchase increased freedom in one area at the price of increased control in another.

Clear enough: Start with what you find, and don’t take responsibility for it. Then design the means to work towards your goal one baby step at a time, without ever purchasing increased freedom at the expensed of increased coercion.  

This is what is meant by the phrase ‘ratchet for freedom.’ 

This approach gives us a real weapon if we can make it into parliament. It would be a game changer.  

We could spurn altogether any idea of coalition, which has killed every minor party who embraced it. Instead, we could give every party in the house the firm commitment that we would vote for every single measure just as long as it removed some government control, just as long as it advanced freedom, just as long as there were no new element of coercion. 

And how could anyone object to that? 

And just think. No need for made-to-be-broken coalition agreements, because any party who needed it would have our cast-iron commitment to vote with them on every measure removing some government control, as long as there were no new element of coercion—which means supporting every budget that removed spending, just as long as there was no new increased burden on anybody. 

Just imagine it. Every politician in the house will be hurrying to understand what the words more freedom and less government actually mean. 

Just think about it. Every journalist in the country who wants to talk up votes in the house will be doing our job for us, because to understand how our votes would be committee—if we get to parliament—would require them, too, to understand what the words more freedom and less government actually mean. 

A principled opposition of course – our putative 'Party X' -- would also promote such policies. An intelligent opposition would design such policies to be picked up and passed around. 

To be picked up and passed around (and to be worth passing around) every policy should pass The Test of the Three Ps: it should be Practical, it must be Principled, and it will have been designed to be arse-grabbingly Provocative.  

Provocative enough to be passed around; Practical enough to be work; Principled enough to move the game in the right direction. The principle with each policy must be clear: More freedom with no new coercion. 

Now I know there are policy wonks in this very room who if we let them would talk enough would all say which specific policies we should promote and why. 

But I’m going to say we shouldn’t sweat the specific policies now. Not yet. Not this afternoon. I say if we get broad agreement now on our general approach, we can put ACT's principles at the top of the page, and meet early next year to thrash out the main policy platform arising therefrom. 

One think I think we can agree on now is that we keep it simple, stupid. 

Here’s what I mean. At the last election, the Greens had great success from promoting just three basic policies. Sorry, three “priorities.” If you recall, the three “priorities” were green jobs, clean rivers and child poverty. It worked. 

Now without commenting on those priorities themselves, I think we’d all say it worked. They found a small number of areas on which there’s huge popular support, and articulated their positions with all the energy and taxpayers’ money they could command..

I think we can learn from that. I’d like to think however that our target voter is smarter than the Greens’s. I’d like to think that. So I think we can do better than three. I reckon we should promote five major policies, a “tight five” of priorities, promoted over and over again until we’re bored with talking about them—because only then will others start to notice. 

So which five do we promote?  

That’s the sixty-million dollar question, isn’t it.  

The populist way for a party to capture support is to find people’s itches and scratch them. Ours is a harder route, but with greater long-term payoff. 

Political parties must first of all capture support, so their policies do have to be popular. But they also have to continually expand the market for their ideas, (something ACT failed to do) so every policy also has to teach.  

Remember, if we’re going to be successful we need to attract the support of around 100,000 people. So I’d suggest the test for being in our “tight five” should be these five points:

  1. Select those policies that clearly demonstrate our principles;
  2. Select those policies for which we estimate there are already 100,000 people in the country who agree with us; and
  3. Select those policies for which those 100,000 will vote for us instead of anyone else.
  4. Reject policies too closely associated with past failure.
  5. Accept those policies that promote the benevolence and sense of life of freedom.

NB: All five points are important.

Selecting those policies that demonstrate our principles keeps us honest, and it helps educate others. (Promoting affordable cities, for example, allows us to teach people that only by making people freer can our cities become more affordable.)

Without popular policies we’re wasting our time. (Promoting marijuana legalisation, for example, which we already know has large support—and tells anyone who needs to know that this is not a right-wing party, it’s one serious about freedom.)

Without policies for which we alone have a competitive advantage, we’re spending time promoting policies for which other parties receive the rewards. (there’s little point in us spending time promoting law and order, for example, because the Nats will lap up that support, not us.)

We have to learn from the sad career trajectory of Don Brash that anything publicly associated with ACT (and possibly everyone associted) is now poison for most people. So that means policies directly and publicly associated with them will be too (which means, unfortunately, that one law for all must be out.)

For too long we’ve rained on everyone’s parade by scaring them about Nanny State and telling them what we’d like to abolish, what we’d like to take away. And that’s scared them. How about we tell them all them instead all the benefits of freedom, like prosperity, like affordability, like choice. Yes, that will be much harder, but I think the sugar pill will prove more palatable to more people.

There is one policy however which by necessity violates this last guideline of being positive.

Let’s face it. Economically, the world is in a mess. I’m convinced that we need to promote balanced budgets and hard money. The payoff for this will be when the unfortunate GFC 2.0 crash happens, and (unlike the other parties) we will be seen to know what we're talking about, just as the likes of Peter Schiff, Detlev Schlicter, and John Allison had their reputations enhanced by warning of the coming of the last calamity.

There is yet another reason to keep our suite of policy themes to a minimum. 

And that’s because not all of us in this room agree on everything.

That’s both the strength and the weakness of a party of all the talents. 

I draw inspiration from the Ministry of All the Talents formed in Britain during the Napoleonic War, and again during the Second World War, that drew on talents from across the spectrum, coming together with the one aim of winning the war.

Our divisions are fewer than those between, say Nai Bevan and Winston Churchill. But with their aims limited to specific goals, they could find agreement.

So can we.

WE have a mission. We have a goal. We share an understanding, I think, of how to get there.

Now, to the extent that we are successful in attracting large numbers, we’ll all be running into people we’ve had run-ins with before. To that I say “suck it up.” That’s a good thing, it will be one early sign of our success—that we’re drawing in people who have left the lists for other things and have now returned to the battle. If it happens, as it should, embrace it. And as long as we’re honest with each other, and all our aims are the same, we can agree and get on with it.

OUR IMMEDIATE AIM must be to give a home to ACT's disenfranchised libertarians and social liberals, along with like-minded souls from Libz, ALCP, socially liberal Young Nats and elsewhere. 

AND OUR LONG-TERM AIM must be to produce by education and activism a “freedom bloc” in parliament of intelligent, articulate, knowledgeable advocates of freedom. A principled and powerful Party of All the Talents that regenerates itself by continual education of members and MPs.

(And for those who do read Matthew Hooton, let me assure you that doesn’t mean re-education in the art of romantic realism. Well, not necessarily.)

** AIM OF FREEDOM BLOC: The aim is obviously to be in Parliament within six years. 

Let’s not think that will be easy.It’s certainly possible. But it’s not going to be easy. 

If we’re going to do it, we have to be credible. We have to be financial. And we have to be active.

Outside parliament and struggling for attention, what we really need here is a constant campaign--a permanent revolution, if you will. Not just a three-week burst in some far-distant November, but an ongoing concerted campaign to capture attention for the party, and teach the ideas. 

Q: How many of you are really up for that? How many of you are willing to back that.

The opportunity exists for us to Take advantage. But how many of you value it enough to get behind it. Because this is where it all gets that much harder.

**FUNDING?

Campaigning costs money. Campaigning credibly costs big money.

We have a wealth of ideas. But do we have wealth and funders sufficient to bankroll us?

On that, I bow to those more qualified to answer. But I do know that being credible attracts big money. And I know that some of you know how, and from whom, to extract it.

And we are also going to need grassroots financial support.

I reckon no party with the goals that we have can be taken seriously, or can do the job we need to do, unless there’s regular and decent funding from the membership. Unless there is serous money not just at election time, but all through the electoral cycle. Unless the leader of the party, the man or woman who (like it or not) is going to be the party’s face, is at least getting an honorarium for all the time that doing the job properly will take.

Whatever we choose to call it, if we’re going to do it properly this new project will demand a lot of our time, and cost a lot of money.

So to those who are thinking of applauding me now I’ve finally concluded, just let me say this.

Don’t clap. Just throw money. 

Because if we’re not just pissing in the wind, we’re going to need it. 

* * * * * 

POSSIBLE TIGHT-FIVE POLICIES?

  • Small Consents Tribunals – accept RMA but insist that Small Consents Tribunals are set up, something like Small Claims Tribunals, to deal with projects under $300,000 on the basis of a Codification of Common Law. At one very easy stroke you make more low-cost housing much more affordable for many more people.
  • Iwi then Kiwi – accept ToW, insist only that all property involved (which, let’s face it, is the only way we’re going to see any real privatisation this decade) is individualised and transferrable. And call it what it is. Privatisation. At one simple stroke you have the biggest political power bloc in the country, the Browntable, behind privatisation.
  • Balanced Budget
  • Legalise cannabis
  • Voluntary euthanasia
  • Abolish Search & Surveillance Act, 2012
  • Abolish Maori seats
  • Enterprise Zone for Christchurch
  • Affordable Cities
  • 40/15 tax: $40k income tax free threshold, 15% GST
  • A Very Special Carbon Tax: linked to temperature rise in troposphere at equator
  • Eco UnTaxes
  • Putting Property Rights in the Bill of Rights.
  • Replace zoning with “Coming to the Nuisance”
  • Tax credits for education

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Stephen Fry, Steven Joyce and Government broadband

imageHe loves gadgets and he’s tweeted from many places around the world, but Stephen Fry was less than satisfied with government broadband here in EnZed. And he reckons we EnZedders should rise up and take on those responsible.

“You wouldn't put up with potholes in your roads,” he says, though we do, don’t we, “so you shouldn't have to put up with Third World broadband standards as well.”

But we do, don’t we.  We not only put up with it, you vote for it.

So who’s responsible for the potholes in local broadband? Well, it’s fashionable to blame the private telcos, of course.  But consider that around six years ago, right when those private telcos were considering plans to roll out the next generation of broadband across the country, Labour’s David Cunliffe began dismembering Telecom—to the loud applause of  Labour hacks, National stalwarts and Telecom’s competitors—and announcing plans to “roll out” government fibre.

Would-be private investors in next-generation broadband began quietly reconsidering their own investment plans. Why put your own head in the noose when you could reap the benefit of a taxpayer “investment.”

Then around four years ago in a throwback to its Think-Big Muldoonist past the incoming National government began announcing that it would be they who would be “rolling out” the next generation of high-speed, bells-and-whistles broadband, the “roll out” of which would be a flagship policy of their first term.

Potential users and rival telcos alike waited with bated breath while nothing continued to happen. And now that the former promoter of National’s next generation of high-speed, bells-and-whistles broadband Steven Joyce has moved on to bigger, better and brassier things, the non-roll out has been left to first-time minister Amy Adams—who instead of being photographed in front of new high-tech equipment sits in her new office writing press releases boasting :

The Government has set aside $1.5 billion for ultra-fast broadband, and aims to have the service reaching 75 percent of New Zealand in the next 3 5 7 10 years… contracts had been locked in, the rollout was under way, and competitive wholesale prices had been secured, but it was up to the industry to ensure New Zealanders got the quality and performance they expected at prices they could afford…

Or in other words, “we’ve spent lots of your money already with only paper promises and electioneering hype to show for it. But stop whining, because you’ll get it when you get it.”

At least she recognises, if only partially, that government itself delivers nothing. That in the end it is still “up to the industry.” But perhaps she and other EnZedders might reflect that the industry might have done better and much earlier—that big private investment might have been directed into this area much sooner—if big government hadn’t been flexing its muscles for the last six years in the hope of  a political windfall.

After all, it looks like up to $33 billion could be the real return to NZ from the investment, if it ever comes to pass, some of which would have rubbed off on private investors. But when any private investment would have been drowned out by government and (no doubt) damned by luddite nationalists in every party, and when NZ’s largest telecommunications company is being dismembered and partially nationalised as a reward for owning and having rolled out the last national network, it’s no wonder no private investor wanted to take the risk.

As a blogger who’s now left the building once said:

If telecommunications companies think someone is going to steal their networks,they won't build any more of them! It's really simple. Now we are stuck with waiting for the government to waste my tax money building something that every private interest is now too scared to.

Former Telstra Australia head Sol Trujillo said much the same when similar threats were directed his way from the Australian government. He:

derided Kevin Rudd's election-promised "partnership" to build an across-Australian broadband network, calling it a "kumbaya, holding hands" theory. It might have been an election promise, but looks like no- one stopped to ask the company supposedly being partnered. Said Trujillo: "We are only going to participate in the things that we own and control."
    Mr Trujillo, firmly backed by chairman Donald McGauchie, said Telstra was happy to invest $4 billion or more of its own money rather than the taxpayers' - but only on its terms and pricing…
Australia needs a fast, modern telecoms infrastructure [says Trujillo]. And the quickest way to get there is to allow unfettered competition. Mr Trujillo says that America and Europe learned long ago that “to foster competition the government cannot control the levers, it must let the market work. Virtually every other country has moved towards less regulation in telecoms” …
    Worried that giving rivals a free ride would undermine his profits, Mr Trujillo is threatening not to lay the fibre: “My duty is to our shareholders—including 1.6m ordinary Australians. I will only invest where I can earn an economic return.”

So when private investors aren’t able to earn a return? Or they are (falsely) led to believe they can be given an unearned free ride on someone else’s network? Then you end up where you are today. As our late friend Anna Woolf said back in 2008: Remove the Red Tape, the Fibre Optics will follow. Or don’t, and it won’t.

So when you’re complaining about your broadband service today, it’s government broadband you’re complaining about.

Potholes and all.

Tuesday, 11 October 2011

John Key lies [updated]

Two years ago, if you believed the Key Government, the biggest problem facing Bill’s First Budget was whether or not he could somehow forestall a credit downgrade. Government cheerleaders cheered when our hero pulled it off.

Not so much today.  Those cheerleaders are resolutely silent.

And the talk elsewhere now is not about last week’s downgrade—due in part to “increased spending by the government”—but about John Key’s lies about it.  About the lie he told parliament after last weeks’ downgrade that an even bigger downgrade would have happened under a Labour Government—and he knew this (he says) because Standard and Poors told him.

 Bullshit, says Standard and Poors. They aren’t now, never have been and never will be so partisan—and, frankly, any former manager of Merrill Lynch knows that as a fact you can take to the bank, whatever he now says he heard second-hand from whichever ill-tamed unnamed source.

He lied. Perhaps to take attention from the downgrade itself. But he lied.

He can’t help himself.  It just comes naturally.

He lied to you about tax cuts. Before the last election he promised “a tax cut programme [fully costed and funded] that will not require any additional borrowing” – a “pledge to deliver about $50 a week to workers on the average age.” It was a lie. As their borrowing grew, their tax cuts fizzled, spluttered, then died in a political sleight of hand: a small cut with one hand, a larger rise with the other. (And no fear saying Smile and Wave never saw the collapse coming.  You don’t think a former Merrill Lynch manager would have noticed when Merrill Lynch went under?)

He lied about it, and you bought it.

And how about this boast of his in parliament a couple of weeks ago, boasting about “his” achievements as Prime Minister:

We have grown for eight of the last nine quarters, we will be back in surplus by 2014-15, our debt is one quarter of the OECD average, we have interest rates at a 45-year low, unemployment is starting to fall, we have created 45,000 jobs, … we are likely to create 170,000 jobs in the next 4 years, we have reformed the Resource Management Act, and, by the way, we are on track to win the Rugby World Cup.

More lies.  More bullshit. More hyperbolic nonsense.

  • “We have grown for eight of the last nine quarters…” Any “growth” has only been in inflated figures—and even those show any “growth” as virtually a statistical anomaly. The claim is a nonsense.
  • “…we will be back in surplus by 2014-15…” Any “surplus” expected in 2014-15 is expected only by Treasury, and only on their delusions of world economic recovery and local economic “growth” of over three percent a year for the next several years. Do you see any of that coming? The claim is a fiction.
  • “…our debt is one quarter of the OECD average…”   Government debt is now $28.5 billion and growing, thanks solely to Bill English’s continued over-spending.  This rapid and worrying rise in government debt was cited by both Fitch and Standard and Poors in their downgrade. Moreover, the OECD includes the UK, USA, Japan, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece … being just “average” in this company would be a very disturbing place to be indeed. The claim is irrelevant, at best.
  • “…we have interest rates at a 45-year low…” Interest rates have been set at a 45-year low by every central bank in the world because the world is in the middle of a 75-year historical world financial crisis, brought about by those same central banks. This is not an achievement, it is an admission. Of failure.
  • “…unemployment is starting to fall…” Really? Since the official unemployment rate rocketed up to between six and seven percent, virtually doubling under his Premiership, the adult rate has remained virtually static—figures helped, perhaps, by the more than 100,000 New Zealanders who left under his watch for Australia, with the rate of departure increasing in recent months. Meanwhile, a quarter of young people are now out of work and likely to remain so for some time, and nearly one-third of a million New Zealanders have been on a benefit for nine out the last nine quarters, with no sign of that falling either. Key’s claim is a joke. A disgraceful joke.
  • “…we have created 45,000 jobs…”  There were just over 2.2 million New Zealanders in work when the Key G0vernment came to office. There are now just over 2.2 million New Zealanders in work. 2.2 million minus 2.2 million equals …
  • “…we are likely to create 170,000 jobs in the next 4 years…”  More flatulent fiction.
  • “…we have reformed the Resource Management Act…”  The Act was “reformed” not to free up land to help make housing more affordable, nor to give power and property rights back to property owners, but to give more power to planners and make life easier for the government’s road-building machine. In other words, not to help you or I, but themselves. The claim is a lie.
  • “…we are on track to win the Rugby World Cup…” We? Is he next in line behind Stephen Donald?

His boasting is a litany of orchestrated ooze.

The fact is John Key lies.  He twists. He wriggles.

He’s a flake and a faker.

Why does he lie? Simple answer: if reality is only your side then there’s no need to fake it.

You only need to lie when reality is not going your way.

And once you start lying, there’s no way again that anyone else can trust you.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Steven Joyce lies too. [Don’t just trust Gareth, you can check the logs.]

Q: So how can you tell when a politician is lying.
A: Their lips are moving.