Bu çalışmada Fourier yaklaşımı kullanılarak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Lagrange çarpanı (LM... more Bu çalışmada Fourier yaklaşımı kullanılarak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Lagrange çarpanı (LM) prensibine dayalı yeni bir panel birim kök testi önerilmektedir. Önerilen test, serideki birkaç kademeli/yumuşak kırılmayı Fourier yaklaşımının düşük frekanslı bileşenlerini kullanarak yakalayabilmektedir. Testin asimptotik dağılımı bozucu parametrelerden etkilenmemekte ve geliştirilen panel istatistiği standart normal dağılım göstermektedir. Çalışmada Monte Carlo simülasyonlarıyla, önerilen testin küçük örneklem özellikleri analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan simülasyonlarda testin kırılmalar yokken de kırılmalar ani veya kademeli şekilde gerçekleşirken de iyi boyut ve güç özellikleri gösterdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca sonuçlar, pozitif otokorelasyon ve frekansın yüksek belirlenmesi durumunda da testin iyi boyut ve güç özelliklerine sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Küçük zaman boyutları için negatif otokorelasyon durumunda veya frekansın yanlış belirlendiği durumda boyut bozumuna uğramaktadır. Son ola...
Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues... more The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues in Turkey within the scope of the tourism-led growth hypothesis with the help of tests that take into account structural breaks. In this context, causality and cointegration tests based on the Fourier approach were used by considering the industrial production index, tourism revenues and real effective exchange rate data for the January 2005-December 2019 period. The results of the causality test revealed that, unlike the Granger causality test, which does not take into account the structural break, the results of the causality tests that take into account the structural break have a unidirectional causality relationship from tourism revenues to economic growth. Similarly, contrast to the Johansen test, which does not take into account the break in the cointegration analysis, the Fourier Johansen test detected the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth, tourism re...
PurposeThe aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness ... more PurposeThe aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness (TO) and life expectancy (LE) at birth in Latin American countries over the period of 1980–2014.Design/methodology/approachThe bootstrap panel Granger causality test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) was used to determine the direction of causality in the presence of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among Latin American countries. Also, four different tests were employed in order to determine the cross-sectional dependency and slope homogeneity. The stationarity properties of variables were inspected by employing a unit root test.FindingsThe findings indicated that Granger causality existed between TO and LE, at birth which was running from the former to the latter for panel. On a country basis, TO Granger caused LE at birth for countries with low level of economic development and higher taxes on income and profits.Practical implicationsThis study provides new insigh...
Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2019
We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modellin... more We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modelling structural changes as sharp (with dummy variables) and smooth (with a Fourier approximation) process. The results show (i) more evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when structural changes are taken into account and (ii) modelling the shifts with different approaches plays a crucial role for policy implications.
This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts a... more This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency. Structural shifts are modelled as gradual/smooth process with a Fourier approximation. The so-called Fourier panel stationarity test has a standard normal distribution. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that (i) if the error terms are i.i.d, the test shows good size and power properties even in small samples; and (ii) if the error terms are serially correlated, the test has reasonable size and high power. We re-examine the behavior of the international commodity prices and find out an evidence on the persistence of shocks.
We propose a new panel stationary test with cross-section dependency and Fourier approximation th... more We propose a new panel stationary test with cross-section dependency and Fourier approximation that models structural shifts as gradual process. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has good small sample properties. We examine the nature of shocks to the international commodity prices and find out the international commodity prices have non-stationary dynamics.
Exchange rate overshooting is said to be a short-run phenomenon. However, when a currency like Tu... more Exchange rate overshooting is said to be a short-run phenomenon. However, when a currency like Turkish lira depreciates from 13 to almost 400 000 lira per dollar over three decades, one wonders whether it has overshot its long-run value as well. In this paper we employ a relatively new method of error-correction modeling to show how one could test for overshooting in the short-run as well as in the long-run.
Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of death... more Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of deaths increasing: in 1974, the suicide rate was 1.92% for males and 1.31% for females; in 2013 this had risen to 6.22% for males and 2.26% for females. Aims: This study attempts to empirically investigate the behaviour of suicide in Turkey by focusing on sex and cause. We pay special attention to the role of structural shifts in suicide ratios, which may have arisen from the structural changes in Turkish economy during last 2 decades. Methods: We used time series analysis and employed unit root and stationarity tests for the period 1974-2013. The results show that disruption to female suicide and suicidal affairs stemmed from economic problems and business failures have a random walk process. This finding implies that shocks driven by economic issues and shocks toward the female sex have a permanent, long-term impact on suicide. The implication is that the social administration needs to implement relevant, necessary suicide prevention policies for suicides occurring in the female and economic problems groups.
Dornbusch 1976 yilindaki “Yapiskan Fiyat Modeli Parasal Yaklasim” olarak da adlandirilan calismas... more Dornbusch 1976 yilindaki “Yapiskan Fiyat Modeli Parasal Yaklasim” olarak da adlandirilan calismasinda; doviz kurunun parasal bir soka karsi verdigi tepkinin kisa donemde uzun donem denge degerinin ustunde kalabildigini belirtmistir. Literaturde “Hedefi Asma” (overshooting) olarak da adlandirilan bu durum, ulke icindeki fiyat duzeyindeki denge degerinin finansal piyasalar kadar hizli degismemesinden kaynaklanmaktadir. Bu calismadaki amac Turkiye’deki parasal soklarin, kisa donemde olusan doviz kuru dengesinin uzun donem denge hedefini asip asmadigini test etmektir. Bu amaca yonelik olarak ARDL (5, 6, 1, 10, 5) Hata Duzeltme Modeli (ECM) kullanilmis ve 2000: 01 ve 2014: 08 tarih araligi tahmin edilmistir. Elde edilen sonuclar istatistiksel olarak anlamli olmasa da kisa donem doviz kuru denge degerinin “hedefi asma teoremi” ile uyumlu sekilde uzun donem denge degerinin ustune ciktigini gostermistir.
The recent dynamics of international commodity prices have attracted more interest in investigati... more The recent dynamics of international commodity prices have attracted more interest in investigating the behavior of commodity markets. Understanding the behavior of commodity prices has a long theoretical and empirical debate. Given the importance of structural breaks in the commodity prices, a special attention in the literature has been paid to allow the existence of structural shifts. We re-analyze whether shocks to international commodity prices are transitory or permanent within the context of new developments in the time series modelling. We employ the commodity price indices for the period January 1960-December 2017 for 15 price indices. In particular, we focus on modelling structural shift in commodity prices by employing a battery of stationarity tests which account for structural breaks by means of different approaches. We employ the commodity price indices for the period January 1960-December 2016 for 15 price indices. We first carry out Monte Carlo simulations to examin...
Amac: Koronavirus hastaligi 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ulusal ve uluslar... more Amac: Koronavirus hastaligi 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ulusal ve uluslararasi duzeyde hem saglik yonetiminde hem de ekonomik hayatta olumsuz sonuclar dogurmustur. Bu arastirmanin amaci, COVID-19 salgini ile dunya icin tarimsal emtia fiyatlari arasindaki nedensellik iliskisini incelemektir. Gerec ve Yontemler: Bu amacla, 24 Ocak 2020 - 22 Ocak 2021 donemi icin Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanilmistir. Degiskenler arasindaki nedensellik iliskisini test etmeden once, maksimum entegrasyon derecesini belirlemek icin her bir seriye augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Fourier ADF birim kok testleri uygulanmistir. Bulgular: Bulgular, tum degiskenlerin ilk farklarinda duragan oldugunu ve maksimum entegrasyon derecesinin 1 olarak belirlendigini gostermistir. Nedensellik testlerinden elde edilen sonuclar, COVID-19 yeni vakalarinin kahve, seker, pamuk, misir ve soya fiyatlarinin Granger nedeni oldugunu gosterirken COVID-19’a bagli yeni vak...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2017, Oct 1, 2017
Turkey as an emerging country and one of the fastest growing economies during the last decade has... more Turkey as an emerging country and one of the fastest growing economies during the last decade has been implementing the trade-oriented growth model since 1980. The exchange rate policy in that respect is at the center of trade and monetary policies. Given the importance of constructing fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, the long-run PPP hypothesis has been empirically investigated during the last decade. We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey with her ten major trading partners and find out that when the structural shifts are taken into account, there is a strong evidence in favor of the validity of PPP hypothesis. An interesting finding also is that the PPP hypothesis seems to hold for the European Union countries.
Purpose-The aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness... more Purpose-The aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness (TO) and life expectancy (LE) at birth in Latin American countries over the period of 1980-2014. Design/methodology/approach-The bootstrap panel Granger causality test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) was used to determine the direction of causality in the presence of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among Latin American countries. Also, four different tests were employed in order to determine the cross-sectional dependency and slope homogeneity. The stationarity properties of variables were inspected by employing a unit root test. Findings-The findings indicated that Granger causality existed between TO and LE, at birth which was running from the former to the latter for panel. On a country basis, TO Granger caused LE at birth for countries with low level of economic development and higher taxes on income and profits. Practical implications-This study provides new insights for policymaking regarding the role of TO in achieving comprehensive economic reforms to increase LE at birth during a period of intense trade rivalry across nations. Originality/value-Although research in the literature has mainly focused on the impact of TO on LE at birth with panel data, most studies ignored the regional effects. It is the authors' concern that the direction of causality can be country-specific and have regional characteristics. In this regard, instead of dividing countries for a specific region into two parts such as developing and developed, the authors investigated the pattern of trade-health link for a specific region, Latin America.
Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of death... more Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of deaths increasing: in 1974, the suicide rate was 1.92% for males and 1.31% for females; in 2013 this had risen to 6.22% for males and 2.26% for females. Aims: This study attempts to empirically investigate the behaviour of suicide in Turkey by focusing on sex and cause. We pay special attention to the role of structural shifts in suicide ratios, which may have arisen from the structural changes in Turkish economy during last 2 decades. Methods: We used time series analysis and employed unit root and stationarity tests for the period 1974-2013. Results: The results show that disruption to female suicide and suicidal affairs stemmed from economic problems and business failures have a random walk process. This finding implies that shocks driven by economic issues and shocks toward the female sex have a permanent, long-term impact on suicide. Conclusions: The implication is that the social administration needs to implement relevant, necessary suicide prevention policies for suicides occurring in the female and economic problems groups.
Afyon Kocatepe University Journal of Social Science, 2019
We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modellin... more We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modelling structural changes as sharp (with dummy variables) and smooth (with a Fourier approximation) process. The results show (i) more evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when structural changes are taken into account and (ii) modelling the shifts with different approaches plays a crucial role for policy implications.
Pamukkale Journal of Eurasian Socioeconomic Studies, 2016
Introduced by Dornbusch in 1976, The Sticky Price Monetary Model applies to an exchange rate that... more Introduced by Dornbusch in 1976, The Sticky Price Monetary Model applies to an exchange rate that is said to overshoot when its short-term response to changes in the money supply is greater than its long-term response, due to the domestic price level not adjusting instantaneously. In this study, we aim to investigate the overshooting hypothesis for Turkey. To this end, ARDL Model will be employed for the period from January 2000 to August 2014. The ARDL (5, 6, 1, 10, 5) ECM Model is estimated. Empirical results show that monetary shocks have caused an exchange rate overshooting in Turkey, even though the coefficients are statistically insignificant.
This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts a... more This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency. Structural shifts are modelled as gradual/smooth process with a Fourier approximation. The so-called Fourier panel stationarity test has a standard normal distribution. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that (i) if the error terms are i.i.d, the test shows good size and power properties even in small samples; and (ii) if the error terms are serially correlated, the test has reasonable size and high power. We re-examine the behavior of the international commodity prices and find out an evidence on the persistence of shocks.
Bu çalışmada Fourier yaklaşımı kullanılarak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Lagrange çarpanı (LM... more Bu çalışmada Fourier yaklaşımı kullanılarak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Lagrange çarpanı (LM) prensibine dayalı yeni bir panel birim kök testi önerilmektedir. Önerilen test, serideki birkaç kademeli/yumuşak kırılmayı Fourier yaklaşımının düşük frekanslı bileşenlerini kullanarak yakalayabilmektedir. Testin asimptotik dağılımı bozucu parametrelerden etkilenmemekte ve geliştirilen panel istatistiği standart normal dağılım göstermektedir. Çalışmada Monte Carlo simülasyonlarıyla, önerilen testin küçük örneklem özellikleri analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan simülasyonlarda testin kırılmalar yokken de kırılmalar ani veya kademeli şekilde gerçekleşirken de iyi boyut ve güç özellikleri gösterdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca sonuçlar, pozitif otokorelasyon ve frekansın yüksek belirlenmesi durumunda da testin iyi boyut ve güç özelliklerine sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Küçük zaman boyutları için negatif otokorelasyon durumunda veya frekansın yanlış belirlendiği durumda boyut bozumuna uğramaktadır. Son ola...
Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues... more The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues in Turkey within the scope of the tourism-led growth hypothesis with the help of tests that take into account structural breaks. In this context, causality and cointegration tests based on the Fourier approach were used by considering the industrial production index, tourism revenues and real effective exchange rate data for the January 2005-December 2019 period. The results of the causality test revealed that, unlike the Granger causality test, which does not take into account the structural break, the results of the causality tests that take into account the structural break have a unidirectional causality relationship from tourism revenues to economic growth. Similarly, contrast to the Johansen test, which does not take into account the break in the cointegration analysis, the Fourier Johansen test detected the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth, tourism re...
PurposeThe aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness ... more PurposeThe aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness (TO) and life expectancy (LE) at birth in Latin American countries over the period of 1980–2014.Design/methodology/approachThe bootstrap panel Granger causality test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) was used to determine the direction of causality in the presence of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among Latin American countries. Also, four different tests were employed in order to determine the cross-sectional dependency and slope homogeneity. The stationarity properties of variables were inspected by employing a unit root test.FindingsThe findings indicated that Granger causality existed between TO and LE, at birth which was running from the former to the latter for panel. On a country basis, TO Granger caused LE at birth for countries with low level of economic development and higher taxes on income and profits.Practical implicationsThis study provides new insigh...
Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2019
We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modellin... more We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modelling structural changes as sharp (with dummy variables) and smooth (with a Fourier approximation) process. The results show (i) more evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when structural changes are taken into account and (ii) modelling the shifts with different approaches plays a crucial role for policy implications.
This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts a... more This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency. Structural shifts are modelled as gradual/smooth process with a Fourier approximation. The so-called Fourier panel stationarity test has a standard normal distribution. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that (i) if the error terms are i.i.d, the test shows good size and power properties even in small samples; and (ii) if the error terms are serially correlated, the test has reasonable size and high power. We re-examine the behavior of the international commodity prices and find out an evidence on the persistence of shocks.
We propose a new panel stationary test with cross-section dependency and Fourier approximation th... more We propose a new panel stationary test with cross-section dependency and Fourier approximation that models structural shifts as gradual process. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has good small sample properties. We examine the nature of shocks to the international commodity prices and find out the international commodity prices have non-stationary dynamics.
Exchange rate overshooting is said to be a short-run phenomenon. However, when a currency like Tu... more Exchange rate overshooting is said to be a short-run phenomenon. However, when a currency like Turkish lira depreciates from 13 to almost 400 000 lira per dollar over three decades, one wonders whether it has overshot its long-run value as well. In this paper we employ a relatively new method of error-correction modeling to show how one could test for overshooting in the short-run as well as in the long-run.
Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of death... more Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of deaths increasing: in 1974, the suicide rate was 1.92% for males and 1.31% for females; in 2013 this had risen to 6.22% for males and 2.26% for females. Aims: This study attempts to empirically investigate the behaviour of suicide in Turkey by focusing on sex and cause. We pay special attention to the role of structural shifts in suicide ratios, which may have arisen from the structural changes in Turkish economy during last 2 decades. Methods: We used time series analysis and employed unit root and stationarity tests for the period 1974-2013. The results show that disruption to female suicide and suicidal affairs stemmed from economic problems and business failures have a random walk process. This finding implies that shocks driven by economic issues and shocks toward the female sex have a permanent, long-term impact on suicide. The implication is that the social administration needs to implement relevant, necessary suicide prevention policies for suicides occurring in the female and economic problems groups.
Dornbusch 1976 yilindaki “Yapiskan Fiyat Modeli Parasal Yaklasim” olarak da adlandirilan calismas... more Dornbusch 1976 yilindaki “Yapiskan Fiyat Modeli Parasal Yaklasim” olarak da adlandirilan calismasinda; doviz kurunun parasal bir soka karsi verdigi tepkinin kisa donemde uzun donem denge degerinin ustunde kalabildigini belirtmistir. Literaturde “Hedefi Asma” (overshooting) olarak da adlandirilan bu durum, ulke icindeki fiyat duzeyindeki denge degerinin finansal piyasalar kadar hizli degismemesinden kaynaklanmaktadir. Bu calismadaki amac Turkiye’deki parasal soklarin, kisa donemde olusan doviz kuru dengesinin uzun donem denge hedefini asip asmadigini test etmektir. Bu amaca yonelik olarak ARDL (5, 6, 1, 10, 5) Hata Duzeltme Modeli (ECM) kullanilmis ve 2000: 01 ve 2014: 08 tarih araligi tahmin edilmistir. Elde edilen sonuclar istatistiksel olarak anlamli olmasa da kisa donem doviz kuru denge degerinin “hedefi asma teoremi” ile uyumlu sekilde uzun donem denge degerinin ustune ciktigini gostermistir.
The recent dynamics of international commodity prices have attracted more interest in investigati... more The recent dynamics of international commodity prices have attracted more interest in investigating the behavior of commodity markets. Understanding the behavior of commodity prices has a long theoretical and empirical debate. Given the importance of structural breaks in the commodity prices, a special attention in the literature has been paid to allow the existence of structural shifts. We re-analyze whether shocks to international commodity prices are transitory or permanent within the context of new developments in the time series modelling. We employ the commodity price indices for the period January 1960-December 2017 for 15 price indices. In particular, we focus on modelling structural shift in commodity prices by employing a battery of stationarity tests which account for structural breaks by means of different approaches. We employ the commodity price indices for the period January 1960-December 2016 for 15 price indices. We first carry out Monte Carlo simulations to examin...
Amac: Koronavirus hastaligi 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ulusal ve uluslar... more Amac: Koronavirus hastaligi 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ulusal ve uluslararasi duzeyde hem saglik yonetiminde hem de ekonomik hayatta olumsuz sonuclar dogurmustur. Bu arastirmanin amaci, COVID-19 salgini ile dunya icin tarimsal emtia fiyatlari arasindaki nedensellik iliskisini incelemektir. Gerec ve Yontemler: Bu amacla, 24 Ocak 2020 - 22 Ocak 2021 donemi icin Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanilmistir. Degiskenler arasindaki nedensellik iliskisini test etmeden once, maksimum entegrasyon derecesini belirlemek icin her bir seriye augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Fourier ADF birim kok testleri uygulanmistir. Bulgular: Bulgular, tum degiskenlerin ilk farklarinda duragan oldugunu ve maksimum entegrasyon derecesinin 1 olarak belirlendigini gostermistir. Nedensellik testlerinden elde edilen sonuclar, COVID-19 yeni vakalarinin kahve, seker, pamuk, misir ve soya fiyatlarinin Granger nedeni oldugunu gosterirken COVID-19’a bagli yeni vak...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2017, Oct 1, 2017
Turkey as an emerging country and one of the fastest growing economies during the last decade has... more Turkey as an emerging country and one of the fastest growing economies during the last decade has been implementing the trade-oriented growth model since 1980. The exchange rate policy in that respect is at the center of trade and monetary policies. Given the importance of constructing fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, the long-run PPP hypothesis has been empirically investigated during the last decade. We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey with her ten major trading partners and find out that when the structural shifts are taken into account, there is a strong evidence in favor of the validity of PPP hypothesis. An interesting finding also is that the PPP hypothesis seems to hold for the European Union countries.
Purpose-The aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness... more Purpose-The aim of this research is to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness (TO) and life expectancy (LE) at birth in Latin American countries over the period of 1980-2014. Design/methodology/approach-The bootstrap panel Granger causality test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) was used to determine the direction of causality in the presence of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among Latin American countries. Also, four different tests were employed in order to determine the cross-sectional dependency and slope homogeneity. The stationarity properties of variables were inspected by employing a unit root test. Findings-The findings indicated that Granger causality existed between TO and LE, at birth which was running from the former to the latter for panel. On a country basis, TO Granger caused LE at birth for countries with low level of economic development and higher taxes on income and profits. Practical implications-This study provides new insights for policymaking regarding the role of TO in achieving comprehensive economic reforms to increase LE at birth during a period of intense trade rivalry across nations. Originality/value-Although research in the literature has mainly focused on the impact of TO on LE at birth with panel data, most studies ignored the regional effects. It is the authors' concern that the direction of causality can be country-specific and have regional characteristics. In this regard, instead of dividing countries for a specific region into two parts such as developing and developed, the authors investigated the pattern of trade-health link for a specific region, Latin America.
Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of death... more Background: Suicide has become a public mental health problem in Turkey, with the number of deaths increasing: in 1974, the suicide rate was 1.92% for males and 1.31% for females; in 2013 this had risen to 6.22% for males and 2.26% for females. Aims: This study attempts to empirically investigate the behaviour of suicide in Turkey by focusing on sex and cause. We pay special attention to the role of structural shifts in suicide ratios, which may have arisen from the structural changes in Turkish economy during last 2 decades. Methods: We used time series analysis and employed unit root and stationarity tests for the period 1974-2013. Results: The results show that disruption to female suicide and suicidal affairs stemmed from economic problems and business failures have a random walk process. This finding implies that shocks driven by economic issues and shocks toward the female sex have a permanent, long-term impact on suicide. Conclusions: The implication is that the social administration needs to implement relevant, necessary suicide prevention policies for suicides occurring in the female and economic problems groups.
Afyon Kocatepe University Journal of Social Science, 2019
We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modellin... more We reexamine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey by concentrating on modelling structural changes as sharp (with dummy variables) and smooth (with a Fourier approximation) process. The results show (i) more evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when structural changes are taken into account and (ii) modelling the shifts with different approaches plays a crucial role for policy implications.
Pamukkale Journal of Eurasian Socioeconomic Studies, 2016
Introduced by Dornbusch in 1976, The Sticky Price Monetary Model applies to an exchange rate that... more Introduced by Dornbusch in 1976, The Sticky Price Monetary Model applies to an exchange rate that is said to overshoot when its short-term response to changes in the money supply is greater than its long-term response, due to the domestic price level not adjusting instantaneously. In this study, we aim to investigate the overshooting hypothesis for Turkey. To this end, ARDL Model will be employed for the period from January 2000 to August 2014. The ARDL (5, 6, 1, 10, 5) ECM Model is estimated. Empirical results show that monetary shocks have caused an exchange rate overshooting in Turkey, even though the coefficients are statistically insignificant.
This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts a... more This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency. Structural shifts are modelled as gradual/smooth process with a Fourier approximation. The so-called Fourier panel stationarity test has a standard normal distribution. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that (i) if the error terms are i.i.d, the test shows good size and power properties even in small samples; and (ii) if the error terms are serially correlated, the test has reasonable size and high power. We re-examine the behavior of the international commodity prices and find out an evidence on the persistence of shocks.
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