The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by abou... more The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30-50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO 2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO 2 -eq-but with a wide range of 30-60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO 2 -eq, still 10-35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.
Ce papier étudie sous quelles conditions des politiques de déficit public peuvent s'avérer bénéfi... more Ce papier étudie sous quelles conditions des politiques de déficit public peuvent s'avérer bénéfiques en termes de bien-être même si elles affectent, à long terme, le taux de croissance de l'économie. Cette question est traitée dans le cadre d'un modèle théorique à agent-représentatif dans lequel la croissance est auto-entretenue via une accumulation conjointe de capital public et privé.
Russia, Norway and the Middle East are three regions that have distinct histories in energy polic... more Russia, Norway and the Middle East are three regions that have distinct histories in energy policies. Current situations will make it more challenging for Russia and the Middle East to implement greenhouse gas abatement than it will be for Norway, even though all three are major energy producers. Relative to the world as a whole, Russia is most heavily impacted, with the Middle East less so but still significantly affected. Norway’s potential economic loss is only a little larger than the world average. This asymmetry implies that if the differences in impacts are not broadly understood, then international negotiations may be subjected to bargaining under asymmetric information. If so, they may not be able to reach agreement. The result reported here is thus a step in overcoming information asymmetries and facilitating successful negotiation. The results also have clear implications for the speed at which Russia undertakes energy market reforms, and for the manner in which Middle Ea...
This paper consider aggregate risks in a large-scale overlapping-generations equilibrium model th... more This paper consider aggregate risks in a large-scale overlapping-generations equilibrium model that is calibrated to France demographic and economic properties. Two distinct sources of uncertainty are assumed : fertility and technological shocks. The paper considers two dierent issues. The first part of the paper is devoted to a standard RBC analysis. The main finding is that when both sources of
This paper analyses the marginal allocative and welfare effects of various structural budget-defi... more This paper analyses the marginal allocative and welfare effects of various structural budget-deficits in a representative-agent model where the Ricardian equivalence Theorem does not hold because of distortionary taxation. In order to carry out this analysis we perform numerical examples based upon a parameterized “typical" European economy.
As countries advance in climate change mitigation policy, with different timing and approaches, f... more As countries advance in climate change mitigation policy, with different timing and approaches, fragmented carbon markets are emerging. Differences in climate change policy approaches may have impacts on the relative competitiveness of internationally operating energy-intensive sectors in countries with more stringent policies. These concerns have stimulated a debate on the design of climate policies as well as on additional policies that could reduce the negative impacts of climate policies on competitiveness. This paper examines the competitiveness impacts of a range of stylised global mitigation scenarios, plus investigates common policy instruments to address competitiveness impacts of climate policies. The analysis uses the OECD"s global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages. The paper focuses on border tax adjustments, and both direct and indirect linking (i.e. offsets). The different policy instruments to address competitiveness have implications on economic efficiency, environmental impacts, and international competitiveness for both acting countries and countries that do not participate directly in climate policy. This paper compares the implementation of these instruments with a climate policy without additional instruments to deal with competitiveness using a range of metrics, such as welfare, carbon leakage and output.
et sur les flux internationaux de capitaux des phénomènes de vieillissement démographique et d'év... more et sur les flux internationaux de capitaux des phénomènes de vieillissement démographique et d'éventuelles réformes des régimes publics de retraite dans les pays développés, le modèle INGENUE est un modèle d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées de l'économie mondiale divisée en six grandes zones, distinguées selon leurs grandes caractéristiques démographiques et économiques : trois zones développées au vieillissement déjà avancé (Europe, Japon et Amérique du Nord-Océanie) ; et trois zones en développement dont le processus de vieillissement est soit déjà largement entamé (Chine, etc.), soit à peine entamé (Inde, Brésil, etc.), soit encore à venir (Afrique, Amérique centrale, etc.). Son scénario central décrit, pour le XXI e siècle, un monde où les populations des grandes zones, immobiles, connaissent des processus décalés de vieillissement, qui engendrent des opportunités d'échanges mutuellement avantageux, suscitant des mouvements de capitaux de grande ampleur, en dépit d'une diffusion internationale lente du progrès technique. L'article propose ensuite une exploration détaillée de scénarios typés de convergence institutionnelle des systèmes de retraite par répartition, d'abord limitée aux seules zones développées de la planète, puis étendue à l'ensemble du monde. Nous montrons que ces scénarios engendrent des évolutions économiques mondiales sensiblement différentes, et surtout, des flux de capitaux d'ampleurs très diverses selon les cas, donc aussi des répartitions très différentes de la richesse mondiale.
JT03257661 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document avail... more JT03257661 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(2008)66 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2008)66 2 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ The economics of climate change mitigation: policies and options for the future
Quoting a joint analysis made by the OECD and the IEA, G20 Leaders committed in September 2009 to... more Quoting a joint analysis made by the OECD and the IEA, G20 Leaders committed in September 2009 to ?rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption?. This analysis was based on the OECD ENV-Linkages General Equilibrium model and shows that removing fossil fuel subsidies in a number of non-OECD countries could reduce world Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 10% in 2050 (OECD, 2009). Indeed, these subsidies are huge. IEA estimates indicate that total subsidies to fossil fuel consumption in 37 non-OECD countries in 2008 amounted to USD 557 billions (IEA, OPEC, OECD, World Bank, 2010). This represents almost five times the yearly bilateral aid flows to developing countries as defined by the Official Development Assistance (ODA). This paper discusses the assumptions, data and both environmental and economic implications of removing these subsidies. It shows that, though removing these subsidies would amount to roughly a s...
This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogen... more This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48�147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term polic...
This paper describes a segmented matching labour market model with generations of workers. This m... more This paper describes a segmented matching labour market model with generations of workers. This model is calibrated on French data. The results refute the usual idea, according to which a decrease in labour supply leads to a decrease in unemployment. The combination of pure demographic effects with scalwedge effects due to the increase in subscription rates lead to a serious
The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by abou... more The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30-50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO 2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO 2 -eq-but with a wide range of 30-60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO 2 -eq, still 10-35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.
Ce papier étudie sous quelles conditions des politiques de déficit public peuvent s'avérer bénéfi... more Ce papier étudie sous quelles conditions des politiques de déficit public peuvent s'avérer bénéfiques en termes de bien-être même si elles affectent, à long terme, le taux de croissance de l'économie. Cette question est traitée dans le cadre d'un modèle théorique à agent-représentatif dans lequel la croissance est auto-entretenue via une accumulation conjointe de capital public et privé.
Russia, Norway and the Middle East are three regions that have distinct histories in energy polic... more Russia, Norway and the Middle East are three regions that have distinct histories in energy policies. Current situations will make it more challenging for Russia and the Middle East to implement greenhouse gas abatement than it will be for Norway, even though all three are major energy producers. Relative to the world as a whole, Russia is most heavily impacted, with the Middle East less so but still significantly affected. Norway’s potential economic loss is only a little larger than the world average. This asymmetry implies that if the differences in impacts are not broadly understood, then international negotiations may be subjected to bargaining under asymmetric information. If so, they may not be able to reach agreement. The result reported here is thus a step in overcoming information asymmetries and facilitating successful negotiation. The results also have clear implications for the speed at which Russia undertakes energy market reforms, and for the manner in which Middle Ea...
This paper consider aggregate risks in a large-scale overlapping-generations equilibrium model th... more This paper consider aggregate risks in a large-scale overlapping-generations equilibrium model that is calibrated to France demographic and economic properties. Two distinct sources of uncertainty are assumed : fertility and technological shocks. The paper considers two dierent issues. The first part of the paper is devoted to a standard RBC analysis. The main finding is that when both sources of
This paper analyses the marginal allocative and welfare effects of various structural budget-defi... more This paper analyses the marginal allocative and welfare effects of various structural budget-deficits in a representative-agent model where the Ricardian equivalence Theorem does not hold because of distortionary taxation. In order to carry out this analysis we perform numerical examples based upon a parameterized “typical" European economy.
As countries advance in climate change mitigation policy, with different timing and approaches, f... more As countries advance in climate change mitigation policy, with different timing and approaches, fragmented carbon markets are emerging. Differences in climate change policy approaches may have impacts on the relative competitiveness of internationally operating energy-intensive sectors in countries with more stringent policies. These concerns have stimulated a debate on the design of climate policies as well as on additional policies that could reduce the negative impacts of climate policies on competitiveness. This paper examines the competitiveness impacts of a range of stylised global mitigation scenarios, plus investigates common policy instruments to address competitiveness impacts of climate policies. The analysis uses the OECD"s global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENV-Linkages. The paper focuses on border tax adjustments, and both direct and indirect linking (i.e. offsets). The different policy instruments to address competitiveness have implications on economic efficiency, environmental impacts, and international competitiveness for both acting countries and countries that do not participate directly in climate policy. This paper compares the implementation of these instruments with a climate policy without additional instruments to deal with competitiveness using a range of metrics, such as welfare, carbon leakage and output.
et sur les flux internationaux de capitaux des phénomènes de vieillissement démographique et d'év... more et sur les flux internationaux de capitaux des phénomènes de vieillissement démographique et d'éventuelles réformes des régimes publics de retraite dans les pays développés, le modèle INGENUE est un modèle d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées de l'économie mondiale divisée en six grandes zones, distinguées selon leurs grandes caractéristiques démographiques et économiques : trois zones développées au vieillissement déjà avancé (Europe, Japon et Amérique du Nord-Océanie) ; et trois zones en développement dont le processus de vieillissement est soit déjà largement entamé (Chine, etc.), soit à peine entamé (Inde, Brésil, etc.), soit encore à venir (Afrique, Amérique centrale, etc.). Son scénario central décrit, pour le XXI e siècle, un monde où les populations des grandes zones, immobiles, connaissent des processus décalés de vieillissement, qui engendrent des opportunités d'échanges mutuellement avantageux, suscitant des mouvements de capitaux de grande ampleur, en dépit d'une diffusion internationale lente du progrès technique. L'article propose ensuite une exploration détaillée de scénarios typés de convergence institutionnelle des systèmes de retraite par répartition, d'abord limitée aux seules zones développées de la planète, puis étendue à l'ensemble du monde. Nous montrons que ces scénarios engendrent des évolutions économiques mondiales sensiblement différentes, et surtout, des flux de capitaux d'ampleurs très diverses selon les cas, donc aussi des répartitions très différentes de la richesse mondiale.
JT03257661 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document avail... more JT03257661 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(2008)66 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2008)66 2 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ The economics of climate change mitigation: policies and options for the future
Quoting a joint analysis made by the OECD and the IEA, G20 Leaders committed in September 2009 to... more Quoting a joint analysis made by the OECD and the IEA, G20 Leaders committed in September 2009 to ?rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption?. This analysis was based on the OECD ENV-Linkages General Equilibrium model and shows that removing fossil fuel subsidies in a number of non-OECD countries could reduce world Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 10% in 2050 (OECD, 2009). Indeed, these subsidies are huge. IEA estimates indicate that total subsidies to fossil fuel consumption in 37 non-OECD countries in 2008 amounted to USD 557 billions (IEA, OPEC, OECD, World Bank, 2010). This represents almost five times the yearly bilateral aid flows to developing countries as defined by the Official Development Assistance (ODA). This paper discusses the assumptions, data and both environmental and economic implications of removing these subsidies. It shows that, though removing these subsidies would amount to roughly a s...
This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogen... more This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48�147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term polic...
This paper describes a segmented matching labour market model with generations of workers. This m... more This paper describes a segmented matching labour market model with generations of workers. This model is calibrated on French data. The results refute the usual idea, according to which a decrease in labour supply leads to a decrease in unemployment. The combination of pure demographic effects with scalwedge effects due to the increase in subscription rates lead to a serious
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