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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
How long will the government shutdown last?
At 98c, the market overvalues the 95% model probability for a prolonged shutdown, lacking supporting evidence.
Molcan vs Clarke
Model's 67.6% for Molcan is 2.6pp above market's 65c, suggesting a 1.5x payout despite match suspension.
When will DHS be funded again?
Model's 0.3% estimate is 0.7pp below the 1c market, implying overvaluation given Senate recess until mid-April.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.