Papers by Rajaram Nagappa
Strategic Analysis, 2014
The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.
India's National Security, 2013
NIAS Report, 2006
Though there is some material on the Pakistan missile programme in the public domain, it is still... more Though there is some material on the Pakistan missile programme in the public domain, it is still a very difficult task to separate out the wheat from the chaff and make a realistic assessment of the programme’s true capabilities. Information in the public domain is often noisy, garbled and distorted. There are also vested interests and leaks that further muddy already muddy waters. This study on the Pakistan missile programme attempts to provide an independent assessment of Pakistani missile capabilities through a careful scrutiny and analysis of publicly available data. We believe that such an independent assessment will contribute towards a better understanding of the capabilities of one of India’s most important neighbours.
The primary objective of this study is to provide an independent assessment of Chinese ballistic ... more The primary objective of this study is to provide an independent assessment of Chinese ballistic and cruise missile capability. The study also addresses the organisational, strategic and political links in China that impact upon its missile programme. Our study on the Chinese Ballistic and Cruise Missiles uses images of these missiles available in the public domain to make an independent assessment of their capabilities. Length and diameter measurements on the images of these missiles are used to estimate propellant and stage masses. These estimates are used along with trajectory and range models to assess the performance of the missiles. This methodology has been applied to the DF-1, the DF-2, the DF-3, the DF-4, the DF-5, the JL-1 / DF- 21, the JL-2 / DF-31, the DF-15 and the DF-11 ballistic missiles. The scope of our study also included the longer range cruise missiles. Since there were not many images of these missiles available in the public domain we were not able to extend th...
A major topic that grabbed international media attention recently related to North Korea's at... more A major topic that grabbed international media attention recently related to North Korea's attempted launch of a 100kg satellite into a 500km polar orbit. This launch was North Korea's fourth attempt to put a satellite into earth orbit. three other attempts in 1999, 2006 and 2009 all ended in failure. According to North Korea the current launch is a part of the country's plans to use space for developmental purposes.
Iran joined a select group of nations having indigenous satellite launch capability, when it orbi... more Iran joined a select group of nations having indigenous satellite launch capability, when it orbited its Omid satellite on the night of February 02, 2009 on board its indigenously developed launch vehicle Safir 2. The event was widely covered in the media and images and video footage of the launch have been posted on the internet. According to the media information Safir is a two stage launch vehicle and Omid is a 27 kg ‘store and forward’ communication satellite with a life of 2 to 3 months. The satellite is placed in 248 x 378 km and orbits the earth 15 times a day.
The main objective of this study is to estimate the errors in the measurement of lengths of missi... more The main objective of this study is to estimate the errors in the measurement of lengths of missiles or satellite launch vehicles from digital images available in the public domain when the scale or the pixel sizes of the images are not known. Under the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSP) of the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), assessments of China’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles as well as Pakistan’s missiles have been made earlier. In those studies the dimensions of missiles were measured using ENVI 3.5 image processing software. Using these measured dimensions the propellant mass and the lift off mass were estimated using available engineering data and knowledge. This derived data set from the measurements was used to run typical trajectory profiles to estimate the ranges of the missiles.
China’s spectacular economic growth in the last decade has been accompanied by its impressive per... more China’s spectacular economic growth in the last decade has been accompanied by its impressive performance in the areas of space, missiles and warship building. Among the more remarkable of these has been its development of an Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), which according to experts, is intended to deter or target US aircraft carriers. Western media and naval sources reacted with concern bordering on alarm to the reports of the development of the ASBM. There were also skeptics who strongly doubted China’s capability to design and engineer such a missile along with the sophisticated technical infrastructure that its operation requires. However in May 2010 when a senior US Admiral declared that in his view the Chinese ASBM had reached “Initial Operational Capability
Strategic Analysis, 2014
The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.
Strategic Analysis, 2014
Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the "Content")... more Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the "Content") contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2015
The technology surrounding missiles that fly at five or more times the speed of sound is not matu... more The technology surrounding missiles that fly at five or more times the speed of sound is not mature, but several nations have tested hypersonic missiles. The envisioned military value of hypersonic delivery systems lies in their ability to strike quickly over long distances while evading early-warning radars and ballistic missile defenses—but some proponents of the technology also argue that hypersonics could replace nuclear weapons in some roles. Critics, meanwhile, see hypersonic missiles as destabilizing: They could be mistaken for ballistic missiles, could be used in attacks against nuclear and other strategic military assets, and could even be outfitted with nuclear warheads. Amid these concerns, calls have emerged to halt a developing hypersonic arms race by enacting a moratorium on hypersonic testing and eventually establishing a test ban treaty. Here, Mark Gubrud of the United States (2015), Rajaram Nagappa of India, and Tong Zhao of China (2015) debate how serious a threat hypersonic missiles pose to global security, and whether a test ban is the best way to moderate such a threat.
Pakistan has an active ballistic missile programme comprising four missiles based on solid propel... more Pakistan has an active ballistic missile programme comprising four missiles based on solid propellant and one missile based on liquid propellant. Frequent reports are seen in the media regarding the missile flights along with statements pertaining to completion of troop exercises and handing over to the Army Strategic Force Command. In this report an attempt is made to assess the solid propellant based production capacity and gauge the number of missiles that may be produced and that may be in stock in Pakistan.
Pakistan has developed the Babur subsonic cruise missile and conducted five flights of the missil... more Pakistan has developed the Babur subsonic cruise missile and conducted five flights of the missile between August 2005 and December 2007. The range of the missile was stated to be 500 km in the initial flights. However, an increased range of 700 km was claimed in the latest flight. There was also a suggestion that the range may be further increased to 1000 km. While the Pakistan media have shown pictures of the missile in the static and flight conditions, no dimensional or mass details of the missile have been officially released. An assessment of the missile dimensions has been carried out by studying these images. It is surmised that the missile diameter may be 560 mm and the total length 6.6 m. Other features of the missile have also been outlined.
The Indian Space Programme has been the driver of many satellite-based applications in the civili... more The Indian Space Programme has been the driver of many satellite-based applications in the civilian domain. Because of the dual use nature of space applications, the defence services have benefited from the ISRO space programmes The space services however, do not meet the total military space requirements. Small satellites are playing an important role in space applications. They are faster to build, are cost effective and better as they benefit from the use of latest technologies. Small satellite platforms can be adapted for optical and radar imaging remote sensing with good resolution. ELINT platforms can also be built around small satellite buses and an appropriate constellation of ELINT and imaging satellites can provide 24x7 surveillance of mobile targets. The potential of small satellites to meet military space requirements is described. The means of increasing the launch frequency is also studied.
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Papers by Rajaram Nagappa