Over­shoot

I still remember that moment. Do You?

For me, that was a moment I never thought I’d see. The leaders of the world, finding common ground – agreeing to limit global warming to 2°C, and aiming for 1.5°C. Everyone, finally, coming together. Acknowledging that to avoid catastrophic damage to the planet and the ecosystems we depend on – and to protect our very livelihood – humanity must act. We all must act.

It’s now ten years later, and we’re overshooting.

Suddenly, the stories we’ve been telling ourselves about climate change don’t make sense anymore. In that moment, when world leaders raised their hands in triumph after signing the Paris Agreement, the world suddenly had a goal. And that goal became the story. Avoid climate change, avoid two degrees of warming, avoid one point five. Avoid it, and we save ourselves. Everything will be fine. Miss it – and we’re doomed. That’s it. The end.

But now, we’re already overshooting. Without even really trying, it seems, we’ve silently passed the line we had hoped we would never cross – by burning ever more fossil fuels. The 1.5°C mark, that fragile threshold where scientists agree the real collapse begins. Where we trigger the first tipping points, like the loss of coral reef ecosystems, the first climate tipping point we’ve now crossed, as scientists warned a few days ago. This is our new reality. We can see it everywhere around us. From the burning hills of L.A. to flash floods in Spain, from a year-long drought in Zambia to super typhoons battering the Philippines. We are in a climate emergency. And humanity has never before lived in such a world. We’re entering uncharted territory.

But just like everything in life and in this world, climate change isn’t binary. It never was. Maybe the story about either avoiding catastrophic climate change altogether or being eradicated from the face of the Earth wasn’t the right narrative to begin with. Yes, we need awareness. We need more awareness than we ever had. But we also need to understand that we have now entered the storm. On one hand, this means that we need to be clear-headed and prepare for what’s coming. But on the other hand, it also means that we haven’t lost already – which is how many people feel today. So it is neither worthless nor too late to avoid every fraction of a degree of further warming.

Instead of falling for the PR lies of fossil fuel companies and those who don’t (want to) understand or underestimate the true risks of a world heading towards 3 or 4°C of warming, we need to do everything in our power to navigate this new reality and take action. Not because we want to reach a specific number target, but because we are now in the business of constantly transforming the energy sector and the global economy. And because we are now in the business of constantly making decisions and taking steps into the right direction.

So, what happens next? And how do we make sense of it all? That are the questions behind a gripping new podcast: Overshoot. The podcast, written and narrated by Laurie Laybourn, explores the consequences of our new climate reality, but also exposes huge misconceptions, for example about the feasibility of carbon capture technology or the true economical risks of climate change. And finally, it also looks at possible solutions.

But what I found most interesting, when listening to the first three episodes, was the level-headed analysis of where we really are right now, telling stories grounded in realism and resilience. And as such, it is indeed able to give hope (again). Because no matter how dire thing seem, there is no alternative to navigating the complexity and tragedy of our reality. And to stop thinking in terms of win or lose. This is about change. And change happens gradually.

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This is post 15 of Blogtober 2025.

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