Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characteriz... more Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characterized by socio-political and geopolitical upheavals and rising disorder all around the world. The chaotic interactions between constituent units of the international system have become the norm and the rising unpredictability has contributed to the overwhelming sense of increasing instability. In order to understand the underlying dynamics that led to increasingly volatile and unpredictable relations between the systemic actors and the rising instability within the international system, a new perspective that is incorporating insights from the second law of thermodynamics and chaos theory is required. This new perspective should be based on the acceptance that a) “disorder” and/or “crisis” is the rule/normal condition of the existence and “order” is just a spatial-temporal exception/a dissipative structure that should be created and which may endure as long as material and ideational flows feeding it can be sustained b) increasing complexity of both socio-political order(s) and environmental systems has elevated the systemic instability by increasing the number of systemic possibilities which should be controlled exponentially and thus has made it more difficult to (re)construct or sustain any particular order pattern within the world system
II. International Giresun Security Symposium Proceedings, 2019
The impact of nuclear weapons on security is one of the most controversial topics in security stu... more The impact of nuclear weapons on security is one of the most controversial topics in security studies. They are considered/presented as illegitimate or inappropriate (if not illegal) instruments of foreign and security policy because they are considered as a threat for the survival of humanity. Therefore, the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime has been established with the objective of total elimination of all types of nuclear weapons. However, the success of NPT regime in realizing its objective has been questionable and this failure can be attributed to the fact that it is based on a categorical distinction between haves (Nuclear States that have the right to possess/keep their nuclear arsenal until total elimination achieved) and have-nots (Non-Nuclear States that has given up their right to possess nuclear weapons). The calculus on the possession of nuclear arsenal as an instrument of deterrence is further complicated by the transformations in the geopolitical conditions and new developments in nuclear technology: international system is becoming more conflictual due to shifts its power structure; the legal and political restrictions on use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy are weakening; the number of threshold states capable of producing nuclear weapons is increasing; negative and positive guarantees provided by NPT to non-nuclear states are weakening; the advent of new types of nuclear weapons is increasing the possibility of their use in tactical engagements; and normative-political restrictions on use of nuclear weapons is becoming obsolete. These changes are particularly influential for the emerging powers that are challenging the existing system of relations and established practices with their increasing capabilities and rising profile within the international system. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the emerging powers with their aspirations to change the existing system of relations/power in international system will/may choose to develop their own nuclear capabilities, at least, as an instrument for a strategy of deterrence.
Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characteriz... more Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characterized by socio-political and geopolitical upheavals and rising disorder all around the world. The chaotic interactions between constituent units of the international system have become the norm and the rising unpredictability has contributed to the overwhelming sense of increasing instability. In order to understand the underlying dynamics that led to increasingly volatile and unpredictable relations between the systemic actors and the rising instability within the international system, a new perspective that is incorporating insights from the second law of thermodynamics and chaos theory is required. This new perspective should be based on the acceptance that a) “disorder” and/or “crisis” is the rule/normal condition of the existence and “order” is just a spatial-temporal exception/a dissipative structure that should be created and which may endure as long as material and ideational flows feeding it can be sustained b) increasing complexity of both socio-political order(s) and environmental systems has elevated the systemic instability by increasing the number of systemic possibilities which should be controlled exponentially and thus has made it more difficult to (re)construct or sustain any particular order pattern within the world system
Medeniyet Araştırmaları Dergisi (Journal of Civilization Studies), 2018
Organismic approaches to civilizations disseminate the common sense perspective that "civilizatio... more Organismic approaches to civilizations disseminate the common sense perspective that "civilizations born, live, and die", but generally do not provide a systemic and analytical explanation for this process other than referring to biological analogies. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding on the life-cycles of the civilizations, they should be conceptualized as dissipative structures which are created and sustained through continuous re-generation of their peculiar orders reflecting their sets of social values by utilizing both the material and non-material environmental flows. In this study life-cycles of civilizations will be studied as broad societal orders dependent on environmental flows by using an analytical model based on complexity theory and the generalization and normalization crisis in contemporary global order will tried to be explained according to this model. In explaining life-cycles of civilizations, insights from non-linear thermodynamics will be used and threshold behaviors in complex systems as well as importance of human agency will also be taken into consideration.
As the Cold War has come to an end, terrorism has begun to rise as a threat to international secu... more As the Cold War has come to an end, terrorism has begun to rise as a threat to international security in the 1990s. Its ascendancy has been generally attributed to actor level changes: namely in motivations and ideologies of terrorists, and in their capabilities. However, actor level explanations are seemed to be inadequate. They should be corroborated by a wider framework that highlights long-term trends shaping the international system: “destructive empowerment of the individual”, “rise of the non-state actors and the weakening of states”, “weakening of secular ideologies”, “increasing fragility of the system”, and “rising asymmetries of power.”
Herhangi bir sistem içinde var olan olası durumların (contingency) faz uzayının belirli bir alanı... more Herhangi bir sistem içinde var olan olası durumların (contingency) faz uzayının belirli bir alanına sınırlanması sistem içinde “düzen”in kurulmasının temel unsurudur. Bu sınırlama faaliyeti karmaşık bir sisteme genel bir koşul ya da koşullar dizisi getirilmesi yoluyla sistemsel dinamiklerin doğal akışının ve sistemsel evrimin yöneliminin sınırlandırılması ile gerçekleştirilir. Bu genel koşul, düzenleyici/kurucu ilke(ler)den ve bu ilkeyi ya da ilkeleri sistem genelinde uygulayan kurumsal (institutional) mekanizmalardan oluşur. Bu mekanizmaların temel işlevi çevreden elde ettikleri enerjiyi kullanarak sistemsel olasılıkları sınırlamaktır. Farklı kurucu ilkeler ve düzen kurucu mekanizmaların düzenin kuruluşunda farklı etkinlik derecelerine sahip olmaları sonucunda farklı sistemler faz uzayında görsel olarak da ayırt edilebilen farklı “düzen kalıpları” oluştururlar. Düzen ve düzensizlik bölgelerini ayıran bu kalıplar basit geometrik şekillerden değil, farklı ölçeklerde kendisini tekrarlayan fraktal yapılardan oluşur. Bu durum düzen kurucu mekanizmaların doğasının, olasılık sınırlama yeteneklerinin zaman-mekansal evriminin ve sistem içindeki dağılımlarının bir sonucudur. Benzer bir fraktal yapıyı düzen ile düzensizlik arasındaki sınır bölgesinde de gözlemlemek mümkündür. Bu çalışmanın amacı, terör olgusu üzerinden karmaşık bir sosyal sistem olan “uluslararası sistem”de “düzen” ile “düzensizlik” ilişkisini düzen kalıplarının fraktal yapısı çerçevesinde açıklamaya çalışmaktır.
4. ULUSLARARASI MAVİ KARADENİZ KONGRESİ SİYASET, EKONOMİ VE TOPLUM: Çatışma Çözümü, İşbirliği ve Demokratikleşme İçin Yerel ve Uluslararası Perspektifler
Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characteriz... more Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characterized by socio-political and geopolitical upheavals and rising disorder all around the world. The chaotic interactions between constituent units of the international system have become the norm and the rising unpredictability has contributed to the overwhelming sense of increasing instability. In order to understand the underlying dynamics that led to increasingly volatile and unpredictable relations between the systemic actors and the rising instability within the international system, a new perspective that is incorporating insights from the second law of thermodynamics and chaos theory is required. This new perspective should be based on the acceptance that a) “disorder” and/or “crisis” is the rule/normal condition of the existence and “order” is just a spatial-temporal exception/a dissipative structure that should be created and which may endure as long as material and ideational flows feeding it can be sustained b) increasing complexity of both socio-political order(s) and environmental systems has elevated the systemic instability by increasing the number of systemic possibilities which should be controlled exponentially and thus has made it more difficult to (re)construct or sustain any particular order pattern within the world system
II. International Giresun Security Symposium Proceedings, 2019
The impact of nuclear weapons on security is one of the most controversial topics in security stu... more The impact of nuclear weapons on security is one of the most controversial topics in security studies. They are considered/presented as illegitimate or inappropriate (if not illegal) instruments of foreign and security policy because they are considered as a threat for the survival of humanity. Therefore, the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime has been established with the objective of total elimination of all types of nuclear weapons. However, the success of NPT regime in realizing its objective has been questionable and this failure can be attributed to the fact that it is based on a categorical distinction between haves (Nuclear States that have the right to possess/keep their nuclear arsenal until total elimination achieved) and have-nots (Non-Nuclear States that has given up their right to possess nuclear weapons). The calculus on the possession of nuclear arsenal as an instrument of deterrence is further complicated by the transformations in the geopolitical conditions and new developments in nuclear technology: international system is becoming more conflictual due to shifts its power structure; the legal and political restrictions on use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy are weakening; the number of threshold states capable of producing nuclear weapons is increasing; negative and positive guarantees provided by NPT to non-nuclear states are weakening; the advent of new types of nuclear weapons is increasing the possibility of their use in tactical engagements; and normative-political restrictions on use of nuclear weapons is becoming obsolete. These changes are particularly influential for the emerging powers that are challenging the existing system of relations and established practices with their increasing capabilities and rising profile within the international system. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the emerging powers with their aspirations to change the existing system of relations/power in international system will/may choose to develop their own nuclear capabilities, at least, as an instrument for a strategy of deterrence.
Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characteriz... more Contrary to post-cold war expectations, the contemporary world system is increasingly characterized by socio-political and geopolitical upheavals and rising disorder all around the world. The chaotic interactions between constituent units of the international system have become the norm and the rising unpredictability has contributed to the overwhelming sense of increasing instability. In order to understand the underlying dynamics that led to increasingly volatile and unpredictable relations between the systemic actors and the rising instability within the international system, a new perspective that is incorporating insights from the second law of thermodynamics and chaos theory is required. This new perspective should be based on the acceptance that a) “disorder” and/or “crisis” is the rule/normal condition of the existence and “order” is just a spatial-temporal exception/a dissipative structure that should be created and which may endure as long as material and ideational flows feeding it can be sustained b) increasing complexity of both socio-political order(s) and environmental systems has elevated the systemic instability by increasing the number of systemic possibilities which should be controlled exponentially and thus has made it more difficult to (re)construct or sustain any particular order pattern within the world system
Medeniyet Araştırmaları Dergisi (Journal of Civilization Studies), 2018
Organismic approaches to civilizations disseminate the common sense perspective that "civilizatio... more Organismic approaches to civilizations disseminate the common sense perspective that "civilizations born, live, and die", but generally do not provide a systemic and analytical explanation for this process other than referring to biological analogies. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding on the life-cycles of the civilizations, they should be conceptualized as dissipative structures which are created and sustained through continuous re-generation of their peculiar orders reflecting their sets of social values by utilizing both the material and non-material environmental flows. In this study life-cycles of civilizations will be studied as broad societal orders dependent on environmental flows by using an analytical model based on complexity theory and the generalization and normalization crisis in contemporary global order will tried to be explained according to this model. In explaining life-cycles of civilizations, insights from non-linear thermodynamics will be used and threshold behaviors in complex systems as well as importance of human agency will also be taken into consideration.
As the Cold War has come to an end, terrorism has begun to rise as a threat to international secu... more As the Cold War has come to an end, terrorism has begun to rise as a threat to international security in the 1990s. Its ascendancy has been generally attributed to actor level changes: namely in motivations and ideologies of terrorists, and in their capabilities. However, actor level explanations are seemed to be inadequate. They should be corroborated by a wider framework that highlights long-term trends shaping the international system: “destructive empowerment of the individual”, “rise of the non-state actors and the weakening of states”, “weakening of secular ideologies”, “increasing fragility of the system”, and “rising asymmetries of power.”
Herhangi bir sistem içinde var olan olası durumların (contingency) faz uzayının belirli bir alanı... more Herhangi bir sistem içinde var olan olası durumların (contingency) faz uzayının belirli bir alanına sınırlanması sistem içinde “düzen”in kurulmasının temel unsurudur. Bu sınırlama faaliyeti karmaşık bir sisteme genel bir koşul ya da koşullar dizisi getirilmesi yoluyla sistemsel dinamiklerin doğal akışının ve sistemsel evrimin yöneliminin sınırlandırılması ile gerçekleştirilir. Bu genel koşul, düzenleyici/kurucu ilke(ler)den ve bu ilkeyi ya da ilkeleri sistem genelinde uygulayan kurumsal (institutional) mekanizmalardan oluşur. Bu mekanizmaların temel işlevi çevreden elde ettikleri enerjiyi kullanarak sistemsel olasılıkları sınırlamaktır. Farklı kurucu ilkeler ve düzen kurucu mekanizmaların düzenin kuruluşunda farklı etkinlik derecelerine sahip olmaları sonucunda farklı sistemler faz uzayında görsel olarak da ayırt edilebilen farklı “düzen kalıpları” oluştururlar. Düzen ve düzensizlik bölgelerini ayıran bu kalıplar basit geometrik şekillerden değil, farklı ölçeklerde kendisini tekrarlayan fraktal yapılardan oluşur. Bu durum düzen kurucu mekanizmaların doğasının, olasılık sınırlama yeteneklerinin zaman-mekansal evriminin ve sistem içindeki dağılımlarının bir sonucudur. Benzer bir fraktal yapıyı düzen ile düzensizlik arasındaki sınır bölgesinde de gözlemlemek mümkündür. Bu çalışmanın amacı, terör olgusu üzerinden karmaşık bir sosyal sistem olan “uluslararası sistem”de “düzen” ile “düzensizlik” ilişkisini düzen kalıplarının fraktal yapısı çerçevesinde açıklamaya çalışmaktır.
4. ULUSLARARASI MAVİ KARADENİZ KONGRESİ SİYASET, EKONOMİ VE TOPLUM: Çatışma Çözümü, İşbirliği ve Demokratikleşme İçin Yerel ve Uluslararası Perspektifler
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Papers by Şükrü Yazğan
In this study life-cycles of civilizations will be studied as broad societal orders dependent on environmental flows by using an analytical model based on complexity theory and the generalization and normalization crisis in contemporary global order will tried to be explained according to this model. In explaining life-cycles of civilizations, insights from non-linear thermodynamics will be used and threshold behaviors in complex systems as well as importance of human agency will also be taken into consideration.
Books by Şükrü Yazğan
In this study life-cycles of civilizations will be studied as broad societal orders dependent on environmental flows by using an analytical model based on complexity theory and the generalization and normalization crisis in contemporary global order will tried to be explained according to this model. In explaining life-cycles of civilizations, insights from non-linear thermodynamics will be used and threshold behaviors in complex systems as well as importance of human agency will also be taken into consideration.