In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for ... more In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for a more equal relationship with the United States and improved relations with Japan's Asian neighbors. The policy shift was explicitly designed as a response to a perceived regional and global power shift from the United States to China. However, within nine months the new prime minister, Hatoyama Yukio, resigned, and his successors jettisoned the foreign policy shift. Conventional explanations cite the weak leadership of Hatoyama, the inexperience of his party, and the lack of realism behind the proposed policy shift itself as key factors in the shift's failure. In this article I provide an alternative perspective. Drawing on the concept of discursive power, I demonstrate how Washington turned the Futenma base relocation and other issues into a major crisis in Japan-US relations in order to discredit Hatoyama and the policy shift. What was arguably a modest and pragmatic policy shift was narrated as a grave threat to the very cornerstone of postwar Japanese security. By focusing on the US exercise of discursive power over Japan, I suggest that talk of an East Asian power shift is premature.
Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the S... more Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the Sino–Japanese dispute over the East China Sea will not erupt into hot conflict, at least for the time being. However, for domestic reasons, overt cooperation remains a distant prospect.
Governed directly by the US from the Battle of Okinawa in 1945 until its reversion to Japan in 19... more Governed directly by the US from the Battle of Okinawa in 1945 until its reversion to Japan in 1972, the island of Okinawa hosts the majority of US military bases in Japan despite comprising only a fraction of a percent of the total land area. The central government in Tokyo has refused to countenance revision of the status quo in the face of increasing local opposition, including mass protests and the election of anti-base politicians at the local, prefectural and national level. The relocation of the controversial Marine base at Futenma to Henoko in the north of the island, has become the locus of opposition in recent years. Activists, local media and local politicians call for it to be relocated outside Okinawa to reduce the burden on the prefecture, while the central government, conservative national media and the US maintain that the current relocation plan must be implemented -to do otherwise would undermine deterrence. This article analyses the projection of the deterrence strategic narrative in the conservative Japanese media. The first section locates the concept of strategic narratives in a discursive epistemology, and highlights the importance of discursively empowered actors, before placing the newspapers in the broader context of the Japanese media environment, which differs from that of other highly developed countries in the way it empowers traditional actors. The main section of the article then traces the development of the narrative from the late 1990s, analysing how it discursively links the Marines' presence with the 'China threat', and how it renders those who question the narrative as naïve, or even dangerous, for potentially undermining the Japan-US alliance and thus the security of all Japan. The article concludes by assessing the effects of the narrative, including potential unintended consequences for deterrence in the long run.
Japanese agriculture is in a bad way. Massive government subsidies and
high import tariffs have f... more Japanese agriculture is in a bad way. Massive government subsidies and high import tariffs have failed to stem the inexorable tide of declining productivity, increasing import dependence, and falling area of land under cultivation. Against this backdrop those calling for the liberalization of the agricultural sector have gained ground in recent years. Yet agricultural policy, be it in Japan or elsewhere, is determined by much more than efficiency and comparative advantage. Indeed, the patterns of production, distribution, and consumption of food in Japan are subject to a variety of factors, including identity politics, perceptions of food risks, and rural policy. The main factor in post-war Japanese agricultural politics was the cultivation of rural support by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), aided by the disparity in weight of rural versus urban votes. The result was a system where the LDP ensured high prices for farmers by effectively limiting foreign competition, and in return enjoyed the support of rural Japan. This chapter argues that today, regional geopolitics is supplanting rural votes as the key factor in Japan’s agricultural policy.
Over the past twenty years the East China Sea (ECS) territorial and maritime dispute has become a... more Over the past twenty years the East China Sea (ECS) territorial and maritime dispute has become a key flashpoint in East Asia. Although the dispute has caused diplomatic and economic damage, its existence suits the key actors involved, thus reducing the incentive for resolution. The dispute undergirds the Chinese Communist Party's nationalist credentials and thus its legitimacy. The Abe Shinzō administration in Tokyo can use the dispute as an example of the "China Threat", justifying the need for Japan to continue its "normalising" path. Finally, although the US portrays itself as a stabilising force, extending the US-Japan Security Treaty to include the islands while seeking simultaneously tempering Japan's behaviour, the dispute also provides part of the rationale for the controversial US marine bases in Okinawa and indeed for the US-Japan alliance itself. These gains make resolution unlikely, but do not preclude alternative conflictmanagement measures which could be proposed by third-party actors.
The nature of food risk in Japan has undergone a qualitative change in recent years. This articl... more The nature of food risk in Japan has undergone a qualitative change in recent years. This article synthesises insights from psychology, economics, and political science into an interdisciplinary risk approach to show how international relations impact consumer decisions in Japan by outlining how food risks are constructed and framed within existing narrative frameworks. To this end the article employs two case studies: the gyōza incident in 2008, when poisoned dumplings imported from China caused ten people to fall ill, and contaminated beef incident in 2011, in which five people died and dozens more were hospitalised after consuming raw beef tainted due to industrial negligence. These cases are analysed in the context of Japan’s low rate of food self-sufficiency, deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and the ‘China threat theory’, and perceptions of food safety. The article shows how, despite suffering recent major domestic food contamination incidents and lethal domestic food terrorism, Japanese food is perceived as safe and healthy whereas imported food, and especially Chinese food, is perceived as dangerous and unhealthy. This is exemplified in the domestic response to the two cases: the gyōza incident led to a national outcry, mass hysteria, and calls for a ban on Chinese food imports. Conversely, the raw beef contamination incident – the deadliest case of food contamination in Japan since the 1990s – saw a far more mixed response, as industry, the media and consumers called for the government to allow individuals to take on self-responsibility to mediate their own risks regarding (domestically produced Japanese) food. The article concludes by pointing out that, while behavioural sciences can tell us important things about risk, the political and international context must also be considered.
In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for ... more In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for a more equal relationship with the United States and improved relations with Japan's Asian neighbors. The policy shift was explicitly designed as a response to a perceived regional and global power shift from the United States to China. However, within nine months the new prime minister, Hatoyama Yukio, resigned, and his successors jettisoned the foreign policy shift. Conventional explanations cite the weak leadership of Hatoyama, the inexperience of his party, and the lack of realism behind the proposed policy shift itself as key factors in the shift's failure. In this article I provide an alternative perspective. Drawing on the concept of discursive power, I demonstrate how Washington turned the Futenma base relocation and other issues into a major crisis in Japan-US relations in order to discredit Hatoyama and the policy shift. What was arguably a modest and pragmatic policy shift was narrated as a grave threat to the very cornerstone of postwar Japanese security. By focusing on the US exercise of discursive power over Japan, I suggest that talk of an East Asian power shift is premature.
Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the S... more Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea will not erupt into hot conflict, at least for the time being. However, for domestic reasons overt cooperation remains a distant prospect.
This paper examines the East China Sea territorial and maritime dispute between Japan and China, ... more This paper examines the East China Sea territorial and maritime dispute between Japan and China, from the re-emergence of the dispute in the 1990s until the 2010 collision between the Japan Coast Guard and Chinese fishing trawler. In the absence of the use of force, the paper provides an understanding of how both states seek to improve their position in the dispute. Utilising a constructivist understanding of sovereignty, the paper shows how both sides have sought to maintain or improve their position in the dispute's sovereignty status quo by effecting exercises of sovereignty over the disputed islands and associated waters, and preventing the other state from doing the same. This approach enables the paper to highlight the change in Japan's dispute policy, from a 'hands off' approach which prioritised positive bilateral relations throughout the 1990s, to a more assertive policy from the Koizumi administration onwards. It also demonstrates how China has successfully improved and consolidated its position in the dispute through a policy of preventing Japan's effective exercise of sovereignty, and provides an alternative explanation of the 2010 collision incident: a successful prosecution of a Chinese citizen in the disputed area would have considerably altered the sovereignty status quo in Japan's favour, leaving China had no choice but to react strongly to prevent it.
In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for ... more In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for a more equal relationship with the United States and improved relations with Japan's Asian neighbors. The policy shift was explicitly designed as a response to a perceived regional and global power shift from the United States to China. However, within nine months the new prime minister, Hatoyama Yukio, resigned, and his successors jettisoned the foreign policy shift. Conventional explanations cite the weak leadership of Hatoyama, the inexperience of his party, and the lack of realism behind the proposed policy shift itself as key factors in the shift's failure. In this article I provide an alternative perspective. Drawing on the concept of discursive power, I demonstrate how Washington turned the Futenma base relocation and other issues into a major crisis in Japan-US relations in order to discredit Hatoyama and the policy shift. What was arguably a modest and pragmatic policy shift was narrated as a grave threat to the very cornerstone of postwar Japanese security. By focusing on the US exercise of discursive power over Japan, I suggest that talk of an East Asian power shift is premature.
Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the S... more Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the Sino–Japanese dispute over the East China Sea will not erupt into hot conflict, at least for the time being. However, for domestic reasons, overt cooperation remains a distant prospect.
Governed directly by the US from the Battle of Okinawa in 1945 until its reversion to Japan in 19... more Governed directly by the US from the Battle of Okinawa in 1945 until its reversion to Japan in 1972, the island of Okinawa hosts the majority of US military bases in Japan despite comprising only a fraction of a percent of the total land area. The central government in Tokyo has refused to countenance revision of the status quo in the face of increasing local opposition, including mass protests and the election of anti-base politicians at the local, prefectural and national level. The relocation of the controversial Marine base at Futenma to Henoko in the north of the island, has become the locus of opposition in recent years. Activists, local media and local politicians call for it to be relocated outside Okinawa to reduce the burden on the prefecture, while the central government, conservative national media and the US maintain that the current relocation plan must be implemented -to do otherwise would undermine deterrence. This article analyses the projection of the deterrence strategic narrative in the conservative Japanese media. The first section locates the concept of strategic narratives in a discursive epistemology, and highlights the importance of discursively empowered actors, before placing the newspapers in the broader context of the Japanese media environment, which differs from that of other highly developed countries in the way it empowers traditional actors. The main section of the article then traces the development of the narrative from the late 1990s, analysing how it discursively links the Marines' presence with the 'China threat', and how it renders those who question the narrative as naïve, or even dangerous, for potentially undermining the Japan-US alliance and thus the security of all Japan. The article concludes by assessing the effects of the narrative, including potential unintended consequences for deterrence in the long run.
Japanese agriculture is in a bad way. Massive government subsidies and
high import tariffs have f... more Japanese agriculture is in a bad way. Massive government subsidies and high import tariffs have failed to stem the inexorable tide of declining productivity, increasing import dependence, and falling area of land under cultivation. Against this backdrop those calling for the liberalization of the agricultural sector have gained ground in recent years. Yet agricultural policy, be it in Japan or elsewhere, is determined by much more than efficiency and comparative advantage. Indeed, the patterns of production, distribution, and consumption of food in Japan are subject to a variety of factors, including identity politics, perceptions of food risks, and rural policy. The main factor in post-war Japanese agricultural politics was the cultivation of rural support by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), aided by the disparity in weight of rural versus urban votes. The result was a system where the LDP ensured high prices for farmers by effectively limiting foreign competition, and in return enjoyed the support of rural Japan. This chapter argues that today, regional geopolitics is supplanting rural votes as the key factor in Japan’s agricultural policy.
Over the past twenty years the East China Sea (ECS) territorial and maritime dispute has become a... more Over the past twenty years the East China Sea (ECS) territorial and maritime dispute has become a key flashpoint in East Asia. Although the dispute has caused diplomatic and economic damage, its existence suits the key actors involved, thus reducing the incentive for resolution. The dispute undergirds the Chinese Communist Party's nationalist credentials and thus its legitimacy. The Abe Shinzō administration in Tokyo can use the dispute as an example of the "China Threat", justifying the need for Japan to continue its "normalising" path. Finally, although the US portrays itself as a stabilising force, extending the US-Japan Security Treaty to include the islands while seeking simultaneously tempering Japan's behaviour, the dispute also provides part of the rationale for the controversial US marine bases in Okinawa and indeed for the US-Japan alliance itself. These gains make resolution unlikely, but do not preclude alternative conflictmanagement measures which could be proposed by third-party actors.
The nature of food risk in Japan has undergone a qualitative change in recent years. This articl... more The nature of food risk in Japan has undergone a qualitative change in recent years. This article synthesises insights from psychology, economics, and political science into an interdisciplinary risk approach to show how international relations impact consumer decisions in Japan by outlining how food risks are constructed and framed within existing narrative frameworks. To this end the article employs two case studies: the gyōza incident in 2008, when poisoned dumplings imported from China caused ten people to fall ill, and contaminated beef incident in 2011, in which five people died and dozens more were hospitalised after consuming raw beef tainted due to industrial negligence. These cases are analysed in the context of Japan’s low rate of food self-sufficiency, deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and the ‘China threat theory’, and perceptions of food safety. The article shows how, despite suffering recent major domestic food contamination incidents and lethal domestic food terrorism, Japanese food is perceived as safe and healthy whereas imported food, and especially Chinese food, is perceived as dangerous and unhealthy. This is exemplified in the domestic response to the two cases: the gyōza incident led to a national outcry, mass hysteria, and calls for a ban on Chinese food imports. Conversely, the raw beef contamination incident – the deadliest case of food contamination in Japan since the 1990s – saw a far more mixed response, as industry, the media and consumers called for the government to allow individuals to take on self-responsibility to mediate their own risks regarding (domestically produced Japanese) food. The article concludes by pointing out that, while behavioural sciences can tell us important things about risk, the political and international context must also be considered.
In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for ... more In 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan came to power promising a foreign policy shift, aiming for a more equal relationship with the United States and improved relations with Japan's Asian neighbors. The policy shift was explicitly designed as a response to a perceived regional and global power shift from the United States to China. However, within nine months the new prime minister, Hatoyama Yukio, resigned, and his successors jettisoned the foreign policy shift. Conventional explanations cite the weak leadership of Hatoyama, the inexperience of his party, and the lack of realism behind the proposed policy shift itself as key factors in the shift's failure. In this article I provide an alternative perspective. Drawing on the concept of discursive power, I demonstrate how Washington turned the Futenma base relocation and other issues into a major crisis in Japan-US relations in order to discredit Hatoyama and the policy shift. What was arguably a modest and pragmatic policy shift was narrated as a grave threat to the very cornerstone of postwar Japanese security. By focusing on the US exercise of discursive power over Japan, I suggest that talk of an East Asian power shift is premature.
Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the S... more Despite frequent talk of conflict and even war, economic and strategic factors suggest that the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea will not erupt into hot conflict, at least for the time being. However, for domestic reasons overt cooperation remains a distant prospect.
This paper examines the East China Sea territorial and maritime dispute between Japan and China, ... more This paper examines the East China Sea territorial and maritime dispute between Japan and China, from the re-emergence of the dispute in the 1990s until the 2010 collision between the Japan Coast Guard and Chinese fishing trawler. In the absence of the use of force, the paper provides an understanding of how both states seek to improve their position in the dispute. Utilising a constructivist understanding of sovereignty, the paper shows how both sides have sought to maintain or improve their position in the dispute's sovereignty status quo by effecting exercises of sovereignty over the disputed islands and associated waters, and preventing the other state from doing the same. This approach enables the paper to highlight the change in Japan's dispute policy, from a 'hands off' approach which prioritised positive bilateral relations throughout the 1990s, to a more assertive policy from the Koizumi administration onwards. It also demonstrates how China has successfully improved and consolidated its position in the dispute through a policy of preventing Japan's effective exercise of sovereignty, and provides an alternative explanation of the 2010 collision incident: a successful prosecution of a Chinese citizen in the disputed area would have considerably altered the sovereignty status quo in Japan's favour, leaving China had no choice but to react strongly to prevent it.
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Papers by Paul O'Shea
high import tariffs have failed to stem the inexorable tide of declining
productivity, increasing import dependence, and falling area of land under cultivation. Against this backdrop those calling for the liberalization of the agricultural sector have gained ground in recent years. Yet agricultural policy, be it in Japan or elsewhere, is determined by much more than efficiency and comparative advantage. Indeed, the patterns of production, distribution, and consumption of food in Japan are subject to a variety of factors, including identity politics, perceptions of food risks, and rural policy. The main factor in post-war Japanese agricultural politics was the cultivation of rural support by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), aided by the disparity in weight of rural versus urban votes. The result was a system where the LDP ensured high prices for farmers by effectively limiting foreign competition, and in return enjoyed the support of rural Japan. This chapter argues that today, regional geopolitics is supplanting rural votes as the key factor in Japan’s agricultural policy.
Books by Paul O'Shea
high import tariffs have failed to stem the inexorable tide of declining
productivity, increasing import dependence, and falling area of land under cultivation. Against this backdrop those calling for the liberalization of the agricultural sector have gained ground in recent years. Yet agricultural policy, be it in Japan or elsewhere, is determined by much more than efficiency and comparative advantage. Indeed, the patterns of production, distribution, and consumption of food in Japan are subject to a variety of factors, including identity politics, perceptions of food risks, and rural policy. The main factor in post-war Japanese agricultural politics was the cultivation of rural support by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), aided by the disparity in weight of rural versus urban votes. The result was a system where the LDP ensured high prices for farmers by effectively limiting foreign competition, and in return enjoyed the support of rural Japan. This chapter argues that today, regional geopolitics is supplanting rural votes as the key factor in Japan’s agricultural policy.