Papers by John Van Reenen
Journal of the European Economic Association
Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to re... more Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to research and development grants. In this paper, we study how such financial incentives affect individuals’ decisions to pursue careers in innovation. We first present empirical evidence on inventors’ career trajectories and income distributions using deidentified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records in the United States. We find that the private returns to innovation are extremely skewed—with the top 1% of inventors collecting more than 22% of total inventors’ income—and are highly correlated with their social impact, as measured by citations. Inventors tend to have their most impactful innovations around age 40 and their incomes rise rapidly just before they have high-impact patents. We then build a stylized model of inventor career choice that matches these facts as well as recent evidence that childhood exposure to innovation plays a critical role in d...
Innovation Policy and the Economy
Many business, academic, and scientific groups have recommended that the Congress substantially i... more Many business, academic, and scientific groups have recommended that the Congress substantially increase R&D spending in the near future. President Bush's American Competitiveness Initiative calls for a doubling of spending over the next decade in selected agencies that deal with the physical sciences, including the National Science Foundation. We consider the rationale for government R&D spending in the context of globalization and as an investment in human capital and knowledge creation with gestation times far longer than Federal funding cycles. To assess the impact of a large increase in R&D spending on the science job market, we examine the impact of the 1998-2003 doubling of the NIH budget on the bio-medical sciences. We find that the rapid increase in NIH spending and ensuing deceleration created substantial adjustment problems in the market for research and failed to address long-standing problems with scientific careers that are likely to deter many young people from choosing a scientific career. We argue that because research simultaneously produces knowledge and add to the human capital of researchers, which has greater value for young scientists because of their longer future career life span than to older scientists, there is reason for funding agencies to tilt their awards to younger researchers.
Working Paper Series
ABSTRACT
Working Paper Series
IDEAS is sponsored since 2011 by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ... To our knowledge, thi... more IDEAS is sponsored since 2011 by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options: 1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online. 2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available. 3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available. ... Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W93/19. ... No references listed on IDEAS ...
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In this paper we investigate evidence for the 'skill bias' of organizational change (OC). These i... more In this paper we investigate evidence for the 'skill bias' of organizational change (OC). These include the decentralization of authority, delayering of managerial functions and increased multi-tasking. We use several sources of panel data on British and French establishments. Three findings emerge: (i) organizational change tends to reduce the demand for unskilled workers in both countries; (ii) OC is retarded by increases in regional skill price differentials (a measure of the relative supply of skill); (iii) OC leads to greater productivity increases in establishments with larger initial skill endowments. We argue that OC, technology and human capital are complementary assets of the modern enterprise. The widespread introduction of new organizational forms may be an important factor in the declining demand for less skilled workers in OECD countries.
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There is a growing concern in advanced countries that the position of less skilled workers has de... more There is a growing concern in advanced countries that the position of less skilled workers has deteriorated, either through their ability to secure jobs and/or their ability to earn a decent wage. Some have linked this decline to modern computing technologies. This paper surveys the evidence on the effects of technical change on skills, wages and employment by examining the micro-econometric evidence (we take this to include studies at the industry, firm, plant and individual levels). We focus on over 70 empirical studies that have used direct measures of technology (rather than associating technology with a residual time trend). We first point to three basic methodological problems relating to endogeneity, fixed effects and measurement. Our survey comes to the following tentative conclusions: (i) there is a strong effect of technology on skills in the cross section which appears reasonably robust to various econometric problems; (ii) there is a strong effect of diffusion of technologies on wages in the cross section which is not robust to endogeneity and fixed effects; (iii) at the firm level product innovations appear to raise employment growth, but there is no clear evidence of a robust effect (either positive or negative) of process innovations or R&D on jobs.
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The British New Deal for Young People began in January 1998. After 6 months of unemployment, 18-2... more The British New Deal for Young People began in January 1998. After 6 months of unemployment, 18-24 year olds enter a `Gateway' period where they are given extensive job search assistance. If they are unable to obtain an unsubsidised job, then they can enter one of four New Deal options. One of these is a job subsidy ("employers' option"), the others involve full-time education and training, governmentprovided employment ("environmental task force") or voluntary work. In this paper I evaluate the New Deal in a historical and international context. The toughening of the work search criterion has evolved since the Restart initiative in 1986. Using either the age-related eligibility criteria and/or a comparison of pilot and non-pilot areas results suggest that there has been a significant increase in outflows to employment due to the New Deal. Unemployed young men are now about 20% more likely to get jobs as a result of the policy (the stock of youth employment is about 17,000 higher than it would be without the New Deal). Much of this effect is likely to be because of the take up of the employer wage subsidy, but at least a fifth of the effect is due to enhanced job search. Taken as a whole I conclude that the social benefits of the New Deal outweigh the costs.
Research Policy
We examine the impact on bank performance of the adoption of SWIFT, a network-based technological... more We examine the impact on bank performance of the adoption of SWIFT, a network-based technological infrastructure for worldwide interbank telecommunication. We construct a new longitudinal dataset of 6,848 banks in 29 countries in Europe and the Americas with the full history of adoption since SWIFT's initial operations in 1977. Our results suggest that the adoption of SWIFT (i) has large effects on profitability in the long-term; (ii) is greater for small than for large banks; and (iii) exhibits significant network effects on performance. We use an in-depth field study to better understand the mechanisms underlying the effects on profitability.
Working Paper Series
This paper examines the impact of fiscal incentives on the level of R&D investment. An econometri... more This paper examines the impact of fiscal incentives on the level of R&D investment. An econometric model of R&D investment is estimated using a new panel of data on tax changes and R&D spending in nine OECD countries over a 19-year period (1979-1997). We find evidence that tax incentives are effective in increasing R&D intensity. This is true even after allowing for permanent country-specific characteristics, world macro shocks and other policy influences. We estimate that a 10% fall in the cost of R&D stimulates just over a 1% rise in the level of R&D in the short-run, and just under a 10% rise in R&D in the long-run.
The Regulation of Science and Technology, 2002
Labor's share of GDP in most OECD countries has declined over the last two decades. Some authors ... more Labor's share of GDP in most OECD countries has declined over the last two decades. Some authors have suggested that these changes are linked to deregulation of product and labor markets. To examine this we focus on a large quasi-experiment in the OECD: the privatization of many network industries (e.g. telecommunications and utilities). We present a model with agency problems, imperfect product market competition and worker bargaining which makes clear predictions on how the labor share, employment and wages respond to privatization and other regulatory changes. We exploit crosscountry panel data on several network industries and find that privatization can account for a significant proportion of the fall of labor's share (a fifth overall, but over half in Britain and France). The impact of privatization has been offset by falling barriers to entry, which consistent with theory, dampens profit margins.
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Papers by John Van Reenen