Geography

Hudson Bay experiences a complete cryogenic cycle each year. Sea ice begins to form in late October, and the Bay is usually ice-free in early August. This seasonally varying ice cover plays an important role in the regional climate. To identify secular trends in the cryogenic cycle, we examined variability in the timing of sea-ice formation and retreat during the period 1971-2003. The dates of ice freeze-up and breakup at 36 locations across Hudson Bay were catalogued for each year from weekly ice charts provided by the Canadian Ice Service. We used the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test to determine the statistical significance of the trends and the Theil-Sen approach to estimate their magnitude. Our results indicate statistically significant trends toward earlier breakup in James Bay, along the southern shore of Hudson Bay, and in the western half of Hudson Bay, and toward later freeze-up in the northern and northeastern regions of Hudson Bay. These trends in the annual ice cycle of Hudson Bay coincide with both the regional temperature record and the projections from general circulation models. If this trend toward a longer ice-free season continues, Hudson Bay will soon face important environmental challenges.

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that the 1997/98 El Niño might have been the cause of the dengue fever epidemics in many tropical countries. Because of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, the warm El Niño and the cold La Niña phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) engender significant temperature and precipitation anomalies around the world. This paper presents the results of a correlation analysis of past ENSO events with dengue epidemics across the Indonesian archipelago and northern South America. Our analysis shows that there is a statistically significant correlation at the 95% confidence level between El Niño and dengue epidemics in French Guiana and Indonesia and at the 90% confidence level in Colombia and Surinam. These regions experience statistically significant warmer temperatures and less rainfall during El Niño years. Public health officials could therefore strongly benefit from El Niño forecasts, and they should emphasise control activities such as insecticide sprayings and media campaigns concerning the potential breeding sites of dengue mosquitoes during these years.

Ice cover in the Hudson Bay region (HBR) goes through a complete cryogenic cycle each year. Freeze-up typically occurs in October and November, ice cover reaches its peak thickness from late March to May, and water bodies in the HBR are usually ice-free beginning in early August. In this study, the timing and magnitude of the annual peak in ice thickness were identified for each year from weekly ice observations compiled by the Canadian Ice Service. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the statistical significance of the temporal trends, and their magnitude was estimated using the Theil-Sen approach. The results indicate an asymmetry in temporal trends of landfast ice thickness; statistically significant thickening of the ice cover over time was detected on the western side of Hudson Bay, while a slight thinning lacking statistical significance was observed on the eastern side. This asymmetry is related to the variability of air temperature, snow depth, and the dates of ice freeze-up and break-up. Increasing maximum ice thickness at a number of stations is correlated to earlier freeze-up due to negative temperature trends in autumn. Nevertheless, changes in maximum ice thickness were reciprocal to the variability in the amount of snow covering the ground. These results are in contrast to the projections from general circulation models (GCMs), and to the reduction in sea-ice extent and thickness observed in other regions of the Arctic. This contradiction must be addressed in regional climate change impact assessments.

The observations of community members and instrumental records indicate changes in sea ice around the Inuit community of Igloolik, in the Canadian territory of Nunavut. This paper characterizes local vulnerability to these changes, identifying who is vulnerable, to what stresses, and why, focusing on local and regional use of sea ice for the harvesting of renewable resources and travel. This analysis is coupled with instrumental and sea ice data to evaluate changing temperature/wind/sea ice trends over time, to complement local observations. We demonstrate the relationships between changing sea ice conditions/dynamics and harvesting activities (i.e. dangers and accessibility), with specific emphasis on ringed

A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the worldwide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia,

Purpose-The concept of vulnerability in climate change literature is underpinned by numerous theoretical contributions across different disciplines leading to disparate understandings of what climate change vulnerability entails, as well as different methodological frameworks for assessment. This multiplicity of contributions helped not only to frame and shape different understandings of vulnerability but also to define the conceptual and analytical elements considered as critical in any climate change vulnerability assessment. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on climate change vulnerability and explore and synthesize those conceptual and analytical aspects considered fundamental in a vulnerability assessment in climate change. Design/methodology/approach-Drawing on existing literature on climate change vulnerability and vulnerability assessment frameworks, the paper provides a review of the conceptual elements regarded as critical in integrated assessments of climate change vulnerability to date. Findings-A review of the existing literature identified nine critical elements in vulnerability assessments: the coupled human-environment system and place-based analysis; key components of vulnerability; multiple perturbations; scales of analysis; causal structures of vulnerability; engaging stakeholders; differential vulnerability; historical and prospective analysis; and dealing with uncertainty. The paper concludes by highlighting some of the remaining challenges and limitations for the development of integrated vulnerability assessment in climate change research. Originality/value-The paper presents a synthesis that draws on existing literature on climate change vulnerability theory, as well as vulnerability assessment frameworks that attempt to apply those concepts in the assessment of climate change vulnerability.

Critical barriers to adaptation to climate change include the timely detection and agreed definition of problems requiring adaptive action. In the context of local scale coastal management in northwestern Europe, challenges to problem detection and identification are exacerbated by the diffuse nature of administrative, sectoral, and legal rights and other professional governance obligations. Yet, if adaptation is to progress in a manner that is both locally legitimate and in accord with national policies, climate signals must be detected and climate impact problems framed in similar ways by two key groups; local scale 'bottom-up' experts and decision makers, and national scale 'topedown' scientists and policy makers. With reference to case study sites in Ireland and Scotland, we employ participatory modelling with coastal stakeholders using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to trial its potential in measuring and assessing stakeholder perceptions of climate vulnerability both individually and collectively. We found that FCM not only offers insight into the existing detection and framing of climate signals in coastal decision making but also provides a structured communication platform from which climate problems might be coherently integrated into future coastal management deliberations as the adaptation process matures.

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann-Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961-2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio, and the annual CUSUM range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall.

The objective of this research is to analyse temporal changes in historic rainfall variability across Scotland using different measures of variability. The CUSUM and sequential Mann-Kendall test applied to records from 28 weather stations with up to 80 years of daily precipitation data reveal the occurrence of abrupt changes in the rainfall trends. Most weather stations show a turning point between 1978 and 1985, although some stations situated in Eastern Scotland have more than one turning point. The temporal changes in rainfall variability across Scotland are presented using a number of measures of variability.

Long-term streamflow time series were analysed to provide evidence of climate change in the Hudson Bay region. We also investigated whether relationships exist between streamflow and proximal temperature and precipitation time series. The Mann-Kendall test for trend reveals an earlier occurrence of the spring peak flow in three rivers flowing into southern Hudson Bay, with a statistically-significant warming trend for spring temperature. In the northwestern Hudson Bay region, precipitation has significantly increased in all seasons, resulting in increasing trends in the discharge of the Kazan River. In contrast, a decrease in river discharge was detected in central Manitoba, because of warmer tempelatures and less abundant rainfal1. On the east side of Hudson Bay, statistically-significant streamflow trends were detected for individual months, but temporally and spatially coherent patterns could not be identified. This study of the Hudson Bay streamflow provides evidence of climate change using streamflow and climate data in the Hudson Bay region over the past century. The climate change signal is not spatially uniform and is obscured when the Hudson Bay basin is treated as a single large region. RESUME Les tendances i long terme du d6bit de dix fleuves ont 6t6 analys6es pour ddmontrer 1'6vidence des changements climatiques dans la rdgion de la Baie d'Hudson. Nous avons 6galement 6tudi6 si des liens existent entre 1es tendances hydrologiques et les donn6es de tempdrature et de pr6cipitation de la r6gion. Le test de Mann Kendall indique une tendance statistiquement significative vers une occurrence plus t6t du d6bit de pointe de trois fleuves situ6s dans 1a r6gion m6ridionale de la Baie d'Hudson, une rdgion oir un r6chauffement marqu6 a 6t6 enregistr6 au printemps. Dans la r6gion du nord-ouest de la Baie d'Fludson, la pr6cipitation s'est accrue durant toutes 1es saisons, ayant pour r6sultat une augmentation significative du d6bit du fleuve Kazan. En revanche, une diminution du d6bit des fleuves a 6td

Vulnerability to climate change is a function of both exposure and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change and coping capacity, whether physical or human, to deal with those impacts. The coast is a dynamic environment where physical change is constant. Severe flooding and damage to land, property and coastal infrastructure in the Outer Hebrides of Scotland during January 2005 was caused by a highly destructive storm coupled with tidal surge and the cumulative impact of relative rising sea level. The impacts of the storm highlighted the vulnerability of coastal communities living on low-lying soft coasts and the need for an adaptive response in taking measures to protect them from the harmful effects of future storms. The purpose of this paper is to report on the changing approaches to coastal protection practices in the Outer Hebrides that have resulted from climate change adaptation research. The focus of the paper is on an area of intertidal sands between the islands of Benbe...

Changes in rainfall patterns, humidity, and temperature, as well as greater exposure to severe weather events, has led to the need for adapting cultural heritage to climate change. However, there is limited research accomplished to date on the process of adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change. This paper examines the perceptions of experts involved in the management and preservation of cultural heritage on adaptation to climate change risks. For this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts from the UK, Italy, and Norway as well as a participatory workshop with stakeholders. The results indicate that the majority of interviewees believe that adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change is possible. Opportunities for, barriers to, and requirements for adapting cultural heritage to climate change, as perceived by the interviewees, provided a better understanding of what needs to be provided and prioritized for adaptation to take place and in its ...

Bias correction of global and regional climate models is essential for credible climate change projections. This study examines the bias of the models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in their simulation of the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SSTs) in different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their teleconnections-highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the models in different oceanic sectors. The comparison between the model outputs and the observations focused on the following three features: (i) the typical horseshoe pattern seen in the Pacific Ocean during ENSO events with anomalies in SSTs opposite to the warm/cool tongue, (ii) different signature in the tropical Pacific Ocean from that of the North and tropical Atlantic Ocean, and (iii) spurious signature in the southern hemisphere beyond 45°S. Using these three cases, it was found that the model simulations poorly matched the observations, indicating that more attention is needed on the tropical/extratropical teleconnections associated with ENSO. More importantly, the observed SST coupling between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean is missing in almost all models, and differentiating the models between high/low top did not improve the results. It also found that SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean are relatively well simulated when compared with observation. This work has improved our understanding of the simulation of ENSO and its teleconnections in the CMIP5 models and has raised awareness of the bias existing in the models, which requires further attention by climate modellers.

Climate change mitigation targets have put pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of cultural heritage buildings. Commonly adopted measures to decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of historical buildings are targeted at improving their energy efficiency through insulating the building envelope, and upgrading their heating, cooling and lighting systems. However, there are complex issues that arise when mitigating climate change in the cultural built heritage sector. For instance, preserving the authenticity of heritage buildings, maintaining their traditional passive behaviours, and choosing adaptive solutions compatible with the characteristics of heritage materials to avoid an acceleration of decay processes. It is thus important to understand what the enablers, or the barriers, are to reduce the carbon footprint of cultural heritage buildings to meet climate change mitigation targets. This paper investigates how climate change mitigation is considered in the management and...

Rivers play an essential role to humans and ecosystems, but they also burst their banks during floods, often causing extensive damage to crop, property, and loss of lives. This paper characterizes the 2014 flood of the Indus River in Pakistan using the US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centre River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model, integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) and satellite images from Landsat-8. The model is used to estimate the spatial extent of the flood and assess the damage that it caused by examining changes to the different land-use/land-cover (LULC) types of the river basin. Extreme flows for different return periods were estimated using a flood frequency analysis using a log-Pearson III distribution, which the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test identified as the best distribution to characterize the flow regime of the Indus River at Taunsa Barrage. The output of the flood frequency analysis was then incorporated into the HEC-RAS model to de...

Background Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. Methods A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. Results It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the fir...

The state of Goa in West India has a 105 km long coastline with beaches and cultural heritage sites of significant importance to tourism. The increasing incidence of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea in recent decades and the devastating impacts of the December 2004 tsunami in India stressed the importance of assessing the vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding and inundation, notably in view of climate change induced sea-level rising (SLR). This study aims to develop a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the state of Goa and to use this index to examine the vulnerability of the different administrative units of the state, known as talukas. This is accomplished by using seven physical and geologic risk variables characterising the vulnerability of the coast, including historical shoreline change, rate of relative sea-level change, coastal regional elevation, coastal slope, mean tidal range, significant wave height, and geomorphology using conventional and remotely sensed data, in addition to two socioeconomic parameters: population and tourist density data. Using a composite CVI based on those relative risk variables, each of the seven coastal talukas was categorised according to its vulnerability. The resulting vulnerability map depicts the talukas that are the most and least vulnerable to erosion, flooding and inundation of coastal lands, and that the inclusion of socioeconomic parameters influences the overall assessment of vulnerability. This study provides information aimed at increasing awareness amongst decision-makers to deal with disaster mitigation and coastal zone management, and is a first step towards prioritising areas for climate change adaptation in view of the projected SLR and increased storminess.

This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply reliability and the variability of rainfall was then investigated using different measures of variability. A strong correlation was found between reservoir reliability and measures representing the distribution of rainfall between the winter and summer seasons, as well as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of annual precipitation, quantifying the variability of rainfall between years. In contrast, mainly the intra-annual CUSUM range and the variance of monthly precipitation influenced the reliability of river-intake schemes. The presence of periodic patterns in rainfall anomalies was found to be more prevalent in West Scotland, where reservoir r...