Papers by Fiona Lickorish
Trends in Ecology & Evolution
We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conse... more We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity. Horizon scanning for conservation Horizon scanning is a well-established method for identifying threats and opportunities that allows sufficient lead time to develop solutions and act [1]. Often conducted as a transdisciplinary, collaborative exercise, horizon scanning is intended to enable scientists, policy makers, and practitioners to better understand and manage or mitigate emerging threats and respond to potential opportunities that new technologies, innovations, or initiatives present, such foresight should enable more strategic responses [2]. Every year since the inaugural horizon scan of global conservation issues in 2009 [3], we have identified 15 issues (e.g., microplastics, synthetic meat, use of mobile telephones for data collection) before their substantive impacts were widely observed or measured. Some issues may never fully emerge, which is inherent to horizon scanning, whereas the early identification of others may contribute to averting them. This year's horizon scan was conducted in the midst of major global events that may impact biological diversity. Although by the end of 2022 most countries had relaxed measures to address the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, including lockdowns, the full impacts of that pandemic on biological diversity are yet to be realised. Mitigating emerging threats to biodiversity requires global collaboration and financial investment, which may be challenging when some governments have reduced environmental restrictions to facilitate economic recovery. We recognise that these global events are likely to affect the detection of some of the issues we identified. For example, a move towards greater self-reliance for energy and food production may accelerate the timing of some of the issues we outline in the following section. Highlights Our 14th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 30 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 102 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 36 issues were discussed in person and online in September 2022 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts from DNAenabled biobatteries to submerged artificial light fisheries. Other emerging issues include increased demand for chitosan, accelerating upper ocean currents, and microbiome stewardship.
Science of The Total Environment, 2013
We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These ... more We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.
Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct resear... more Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, including academics and researchers, convened to identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the conservation of biological diversity. These include the impacts of and potential human responses to climate change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this process and collation annually.
RESUMEN: El objetivo del presente trabajo ha sido la realización de una revisión sistemática de e... more RESUMEN: El objetivo del presente trabajo ha sido la realización de una revisión sistemática de estudios sobre la efi cacia de las intervenciones basadas en mindfulness en el tratamiento del TDAH para su posible puesta en práctica en el contexto educativo. Así mismo también se ha analizado la metodología y el diseño de cada estudio. El proceso de investigación se realizó en las bases de datos PsycINFO, ERIC, Dialnet plus, Roderic y Google Scholar, utilizando palabras clave y determinados criterios de inclusión y de exclusión. Solo seis artículos de 121 cumplían estos criterios. Los resultados muestran como las investigaciones evidencien una reducción de la sintomatología principal del TDAH mediante el mindfulness. Al mismo tiempo, concluimos la falta de estudios y programas de mindfulness y TDAH inclusivos en ámbitos educativos. PALABRAS CLAVE: Mindfulness. TDAH. Educación. Intervención. RESUMO: O objetivo do presente trabalho foi a realização de uma revisão sistemática de estudos sobre a efi cácia das intervenções baseadas em mindfulness no tratamento do TDAH para sua possível implementação no contexto educacional. Da mesma forma, também foram analisados a metodologia e o procedimento de cada estudo. O processo de pesquisa foi realizado nas bases de dados PsycINFO, ERIC, Dialnet plus, Roderic e Google Scholar, utilizando palavras-chave e determinados critérios de inclusão e exclusão. Apenas seis artigos dentre 121 preencheram esses critérios. Os resultados mostram como as pesquisas evidenciam uma redução da sintomatologia principal do TDAH através do mindfulness. Ao mesmo tempo, concluímos a falta de estudos e programas de mindfulness e TDAH inclusivos em contextos educacionais.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2021
We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity... more We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2021
Our 12th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity con... more Our 12th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2019
In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservati... more In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics. Horizon Scanning for Conservation This 11th annual horizon scan identified novel issues that may have substantive positive or negative effects on global biological conservation. We do not aim to predict outcomes, but to highlight issues to which societies may wish or need to respond to in the future on the basis of improved knowledge. Here, we present the 15 topics identified by our panel, which comprised 23 scientists, conservation practitioners, and experts in foresight research and horizon scanning. These topics, about which we believe relatively little is known among those working in conservation, are diverse. They include effects on wildlife of a range-expanding, invasive tick species; implications of new legislation to promote sourcing of energy from wood; and the application of a genetically modified fungus to kill malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Many of the issues we identified in previous scans have been realized or become better understood [1]. Identification of Issues Our annual horizon-scanning methods have been consistent (Figure 1). We apply a modified version of the Delphi technique, which facilitates a process that is repeatable, inclusive, and transparent [2,3]. This year's 23 core participants had diverse subject-matter expertise, including, but not limited to, agriculture and land use, microbiology, conservation practice and technology, sustainability, environmental management, policy, economics, research programming, science communication, and professional horizon scanning. Members of our team used different methods to identify and select issues, including, but not limited to, consulting with colleagues in person or by email, soliciting issues via Twitter and other forms of social media or through established networks, and tracking via curation tools, such as pearltrees i. We engaged approximately 830 people. If face-to-face meetings were held, then we counted all participants. If messages were sent by email or social media, we counted only those who responded. In addition, we noted issues that we encountered throughout the year in the popular and social media, scientific journals, seminars, and other professional presentations, and even casual conversations in which we engaged or that we overheard. We assessed the suitability of each issue for inclusion on the basis of criteria established during the first horizon scan [4]: issues must be novel or represent novelty through a step-change in impact, have potentially substantive positive or negative impacts on conservation of biological diversity at a global or regional level, and appear likely to have greater impact in the future.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2019
We review the first horizon scan of global conservation issues, conducted 10 years ago.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2018
We present the 15 topics identified in our tenth annual horizon scan for global conservation. Sco... more We present the 15 topics identified in our tenth annual horizon scan for global conservation. Scoring was carried out by a diverse group of experts using a Delphi-like process. Scores were based on the topics' novelty, likelihood, and potential for major impacts on biodiversity. Emerging themes include conservation impacts of biotechnological advances in agriculture. Other issues included climate changeinduced release of carbon and mercury from polar ice.
Trends in ecology & evolution, Jan 27, 2017
This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect gl... more This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities.
Science of The Total Environment, 2016
Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challe... more Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.
Trends in ecology & evolution, 2017
We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect glob... more We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.
Water Research, 2016
Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario pl... more Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Aguas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector.
PLoS ONE, 2014
Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just... more Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.
Environment Systems and Decisions, 2021
Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions ... more Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water util...
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2021
We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological co... more We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.
This project was undertaken for the FSA as part of a wider programme of work by Cranfield Univers... more This project was undertaken for the FSA as part of a wider programme of work by Cranfield University for a partnership of Defra, FSA and eight other partners, from 2012 to 2014, to deliver a package of pan-government futures research activities including regular horizon scanning, risk prioritisation/analysis, medium to large scale foresight studies and end-user capacity building. Cranfield worked with the FSA and its stakeholders to consider three possible states of the UK food and feed system between 2015 and 2035. The intention was to assess the long-term challenges, identifying key trends and drivers of change for the UK food and feed system, to inform future strategic planning and to provide information against which FSA could test the resilience of policy options to possible future scenarios.
Water Research, 2015
Risk management plays a key role in water utilities. Although risk tools are well-established at ... more Risk management plays a key role in water utilities. Although risk tools are well-established at operational levels, approaches at the strategic level are rarely informed by systemic assessments of the water supply and lack a long-term perspective. Here, we report a baseline strategic risk analysis, founded on a systemic analysis of operational risks developed 'bottom-up' and validated in a large water utility. Deploying an action-oriented research method, supported by semi- structured interviews with in-house water utility risk experts, deep connections are established between operational risk and strategic risk that surpass those existing elsewhere in the sector. Accessible presentational formats - influence diagrams, risk "heat-maps" and supporting narratives are used to promote Board-level risk discussions, and characterise a baseline set of strategic risks core to forward utility master planning. Uniquely, the influence of operational events, exposures and potential harms, together with the mitigating measures in place to mediate these risks are linked to corporate objectives on business sustainability, profitability, water quality, water quantity, supply disruption and reputation.
The Science of the total environment, Jan 15, 2015
Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water man... more Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternativ...
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Papers by Fiona Lickorish