International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022
Community recovery from a major natural haz- ard-related disaster can be a long process, and rebu... more Community recovery from a major natural haz- ard-related disaster can be a long process, and rebuilding likely does not occur uniformly across space and time. Spa- tial and temporal clustering may be evident in certain data types that can be used to frame the progress of recovery fol- lowing a disaster. Publically available building permit data from the city of Joplin, Missouri, were gathered for four per- mit types, including residential, commercial, roof repair, and demolition. The data were used to (1) compare the observed versus expected frequency (chi-square) of permit issuance before and after the EF5 2011 tornado; (2), determine if significant space-time clusters of permits existed using the SaTScanTM cluster analysis program (version 9.7); and (3) fit any emergent cluster data to the widely-cited Kates 10-year recovery model. All permit types showed significant increases in issuance for at least 5 years following the event, and one (residential) showed significance for nine of the 10 years. The cluster analysis revealed a total of 16 significant clusters across the 2011 damage area. The results of fitting the significant cluster data to the Kates model revealed that those data closely followed the model, with some variation in the residential permit data path.
In addition to tropical cyclones and storm surges, coastal Bangladesh is also prone to other haza... more In addition to tropical cyclones and storm surges, coastal Bangladesh is also prone to other hazards and disasters like floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, water logging, soil salinity, saline water intrusion, coastal erosion, and above all, climate change. Since the early 2000s, the Bangladesh government has adopted several plans and policies with the overall goal of creating conditions in which the reduction of poverty, development of sustainable livelihoods, and the integration of the coastal zone into national processes can take place. Extensive empirical research must continue to facilitate monitoring the progress of all existing projects in coastal Bangladesh.
This chapter reviews the complexities of estimating global sea level rise (SLR). Using global mea... more This chapter reviews the complexities of estimating global sea level rise (SLR). Using global mean sea level (GMSL) data, based on tide gauge records for nearly 140 years and more recent satellite altimetry data, the authors then review complexities and uncertainties associated with estimating GMSL. This provides a context for interpreting even greater uncertainties with estimating SLR in coastal Bangladesh, since tide gauge data for Bangladesh are available only for a limited number of stations and for a relatively short period of time. In the next section the focus is on SLR as a climatic hazard for Bangladesh resulting from potential inundation of large areas of coastal Bangladesh. Further, using topographic contours and past storm surge records, the authors have made an attempt to delineate SLR risk areas of each of the coastal districts of Bangladesh. They conclude this chapter emphasizing the need for monitoring SLR closely in the context of river sedimentation, which seems to provide conflicting field evidence of land gains in coastal Bangladesh, minimizing the impact of SLR.
Salinity levels in soils, surface water, and groundwater in coastal Bangladesh have been increasi... more Salinity levels in soils, surface water, and groundwater in coastal Bangladesh have been increasing over past several decades. Present salinity concentrations have already threatened crop productions in the coastal region. Introduction of drip irrigation systems may go a long way for alleviating soil salinity problems. There is also a need for educating farmers about varied salt tolerance levels of different crops so that they could choose appropriate crops for cultivation. Development and adaptation of salt-tolerant rice and other crops and fish species seem to be the necessary steps for combating salinity problems in coastal Bangladesh prior to its complete inundation by sea level rise.
A cyclone is a low pressure system of the atmosphere in which air pressure has dropped below the ... more A cyclone is a low pressure system of the atmosphere in which air pressure has dropped below the standard (normal) atmospheric pressure and winds rotate inward in a counter-clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere and clockwise direction in the southern hemisphere. Storm surges, one of the most devastating hydrodynamic features of tropical oceans, strike low-lying coastal areas, often with great losses of human lives. Cyclone fatalities of epic proportions, widespread property damage, personal injuries, and displacements from homes resulting from destructive powers of super-cyclones in coastal Bangladesh can now be attributed to global warming, increases in sea surface temperatures, and ongoing sea level rise. This chapter gives a brief review of the preconditions for cyclone formation that may provide some insights into the genesis of a severe storm system.
Given the recognition that not only physical processes, but also social, political, and economic ... more Given the recognition that not only physical processes, but also social, political, and economic aspects of hazards determine vulnerability to and impact of an event, a classification system that addresses those factors is needed. Current classifications for natural disasters, such as the Fujita Scale for tornadoes and the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, focus on the physical properties of the event, not the impact on a community. Pre-event vulnerability to a natural hazard is determined by factors such as age, race, income, gender, infrastructure, density of the built environment and health of the industrial base. The behavior of residents in the community, construction quality of shelters, and warning system effectiveness also affect vulnerability. If vulnerability is influenced by such factors, post-event impact should be, at least in part, as well. The goal of this research was to develop the Tornado Impact-Community Vulnerability Index (TICV) that utilizes variables such as the number of persons killed, economic impacts, and social vulnerability to describe to the level of impact a tornado event has on community. As tornadoes that strike unpopulated areas are often difficult to classify, even in the traditional sense, the TICV will take into consideration only events that strike communities defined as " places " according to the U.S. Census Bureau. By assigning a rating to the impact, this index will allow the severity of the storm to be understood in terms of its effect on a specific community and hence its impact, rather than in terms of its physical strength.
Global warming and climate change have been the topic of discussion among scientists, researchers... more Global warming and climate change have been the topic of discussion among scientists, researchers, politicians, policy makers, members of civil society, and people of all walks of life for more than 20 years across the globe. This discussion started in the 1980s as the "green house effect"-warming of the atmosphere due to the absorption of earth's outgoing long wave radiation by the greenhouse gases. Initially, this discussion was only among climate specialists, but started to become widespread after the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). Another event helped to generate this attention, particularly among the world's national governments, was the first Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Both the IPCC and the UNEP assess the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant for understanding risk associated with human-induced climate change. Since 1988, both have published reports on global warming and climate change and advocated the urgent need for action to prevent or reduce potential impacts climate change [1].
, the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale replaced the traditional Fujita (F) scale. The EF scale has the ... more , the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale replaced the traditional Fujita (F) scale. The EF scale has the same basic design as the original F scale, with six categories from 0 to 5 representing increasing degrees of damage [22]. 2 The estimated population of Joplin in 2010 was 50,175 [23].
Being situated at the edge of a low-lying delta, coastal Bangladesh is a classic example of a loc... more Being situated at the edge of a low-lying delta, coastal Bangladesh is a classic example of a local area in a distant third-world country, which is at the forefront of global climate change impacts. The area confronts two climate change–related hazards: (a) gradual sea level rise (SLR) and (b) increasingly more intense tropical cyclones with high-magnitude storm surges. In public discourse on climate change Bangladesh is frequently cited as the most vulnerable country for climate change impacts. Besides exacerbating other climatic hazards, such as river floods, tropical cyclones, and storm surges, global warming–induced SLR poses the greatest climatic hazard for Bangladesh since it is likely to displace millions of people from its low-lying coastal areas. This chapter reviews four structural adaptation measures undertaken in the coastal region of Bangladesh to mitigate the effects of tropical cyclones and storm surges.
Land use change is a process by which human activities transform the natural landscape, referring... more Land use change is a process by which human activities transform the natural landscape, referring to how land has been used, usually emphasizing the functional role of land for economic activities. Land use changes are often nonlinear and might trigger feedbacks to the system, stress living conditions, and threaten people with vulnerability . Therefore, not only do land use change trajectories need assessment, but also possible future conditions must be projected for certain assumptions, both basic to ensuring sustainable conditions. The primary aim of this chapter is to provide an analysis of coastal land use changes in Bangladesh by presenting temporal variations of land use changes in the coastal Bangladesh along with contemporary uses of coastal land. The chapter also includes a discussion of drivers of coastal land use changes as well as a discussion of coastal management efforts undertaken in Bangladesh.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Dec 6, 2022
Keywords Joplin tornado • Space-time clustering • Space-time permutation model • SaTScan™ • Build... more Keywords Joplin tornado • Space-time clustering • Space-time permutation model • SaTScan™ • Building permit data • Tornado recovery U.S. average (0.4 deaths per million) (Simmons and Sutter 2012) for the same period. As of 2021, the tragedy's 10th anniversary, it still stood as the deadliest and costliest tornado event since the 1950-1951 birth of the modern U.S. tornado record (2.8 billion 2011 USD actual, 3.382 billion 2021 USD adjusted) (SPC 2021), and the fifth deadliest tornado in the colonial United States and U.S. history (1680 to 2021) (Grazulis 1993; SPC 2021). After entering the community from the west as a fairly weak EF1, the funnel grew into an EF5 wedge (estimated 200 mph, 320 kph), spanning approximately 20 city blocks north-to-south at its widest points and tracking nearly the entire west-east extent of the city (Fig. 1). It curved slightly Abstract Community recovery from a major natural hazard-related disaster can be a long process, and rebuilding likely does not occur uniformly across space and time. Spatial and temporal clustering may be evident in certain data types that can be used to frame the progress of recovery following a disaster. Publically available building permit data from the city of Joplin, Missouri, were gathered for four permit types, including residential, commercial, roof repair, and demolition. The data were used to (1) compare the observed versus expected frequency (chi-square) of permit issuance before and after the EF5 2011 tornado; (2), determine if significant space-time clusters of permits existed using the SaTScan™ cluster analysis program (version 9.7); and (3) fit any emergent cluster data to the widely-cited Kates 10-year recovery model. All permit types showed significant increases in issuance for at least 5 years following the event, and one (residential) showed significance for nine of the 10 years. The cluster analysis revealed a total of 16 significant clusters across the 2011 damage area. The results of fitting the significant cluster data to the Kates model revealed that those data closely followed the model, with some variation in the residential permit data path.
... 30 % higher than the national proportion, it is representative of land-ownership patterns in ... more ... 30 % higher than the national proportion, it is representative of land-ownership patterns in the ... receive water-purification tablets and bottled water from both public and private sources. Supplies of these items during the 2007 floods in Bangladesh, particularly from government ...
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022
Community recovery from a major natural haz- ard-related disaster can be a long process, and rebu... more Community recovery from a major natural haz- ard-related disaster can be a long process, and rebuilding likely does not occur uniformly across space and time. Spa- tial and temporal clustering may be evident in certain data types that can be used to frame the progress of recovery fol- lowing a disaster. Publically available building permit data from the city of Joplin, Missouri, were gathered for four per- mit types, including residential, commercial, roof repair, and demolition. The data were used to (1) compare the observed versus expected frequency (chi-square) of permit issuance before and after the EF5 2011 tornado; (2), determine if significant space-time clusters of permits existed using the SaTScanTM cluster analysis program (version 9.7); and (3) fit any emergent cluster data to the widely-cited Kates 10-year recovery model. All permit types showed significant increases in issuance for at least 5 years following the event, and one (residential) showed significance for nine of the 10 years. The cluster analysis revealed a total of 16 significant clusters across the 2011 damage area. The results of fitting the significant cluster data to the Kates model revealed that those data closely followed the model, with some variation in the residential permit data path.
In addition to tropical cyclones and storm surges, coastal Bangladesh is also prone to other haza... more In addition to tropical cyclones and storm surges, coastal Bangladesh is also prone to other hazards and disasters like floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, water logging, soil salinity, saline water intrusion, coastal erosion, and above all, climate change. Since the early 2000s, the Bangladesh government has adopted several plans and policies with the overall goal of creating conditions in which the reduction of poverty, development of sustainable livelihoods, and the integration of the coastal zone into national processes can take place. Extensive empirical research must continue to facilitate monitoring the progress of all existing projects in coastal Bangladesh.
This chapter reviews the complexities of estimating global sea level rise (SLR). Using global mea... more This chapter reviews the complexities of estimating global sea level rise (SLR). Using global mean sea level (GMSL) data, based on tide gauge records for nearly 140 years and more recent satellite altimetry data, the authors then review complexities and uncertainties associated with estimating GMSL. This provides a context for interpreting even greater uncertainties with estimating SLR in coastal Bangladesh, since tide gauge data for Bangladesh are available only for a limited number of stations and for a relatively short period of time. In the next section the focus is on SLR as a climatic hazard for Bangladesh resulting from potential inundation of large areas of coastal Bangladesh. Further, using topographic contours and past storm surge records, the authors have made an attempt to delineate SLR risk areas of each of the coastal districts of Bangladesh. They conclude this chapter emphasizing the need for monitoring SLR closely in the context of river sedimentation, which seems to provide conflicting field evidence of land gains in coastal Bangladesh, minimizing the impact of SLR.
Salinity levels in soils, surface water, and groundwater in coastal Bangladesh have been increasi... more Salinity levels in soils, surface water, and groundwater in coastal Bangladesh have been increasing over past several decades. Present salinity concentrations have already threatened crop productions in the coastal region. Introduction of drip irrigation systems may go a long way for alleviating soil salinity problems. There is also a need for educating farmers about varied salt tolerance levels of different crops so that they could choose appropriate crops for cultivation. Development and adaptation of salt-tolerant rice and other crops and fish species seem to be the necessary steps for combating salinity problems in coastal Bangladesh prior to its complete inundation by sea level rise.
A cyclone is a low pressure system of the atmosphere in which air pressure has dropped below the ... more A cyclone is a low pressure system of the atmosphere in which air pressure has dropped below the standard (normal) atmospheric pressure and winds rotate inward in a counter-clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere and clockwise direction in the southern hemisphere. Storm surges, one of the most devastating hydrodynamic features of tropical oceans, strike low-lying coastal areas, often with great losses of human lives. Cyclone fatalities of epic proportions, widespread property damage, personal injuries, and displacements from homes resulting from destructive powers of super-cyclones in coastal Bangladesh can now be attributed to global warming, increases in sea surface temperatures, and ongoing sea level rise. This chapter gives a brief review of the preconditions for cyclone formation that may provide some insights into the genesis of a severe storm system.
Given the recognition that not only physical processes, but also social, political, and economic ... more Given the recognition that not only physical processes, but also social, political, and economic aspects of hazards determine vulnerability to and impact of an event, a classification system that addresses those factors is needed. Current classifications for natural disasters, such as the Fujita Scale for tornadoes and the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, focus on the physical properties of the event, not the impact on a community. Pre-event vulnerability to a natural hazard is determined by factors such as age, race, income, gender, infrastructure, density of the built environment and health of the industrial base. The behavior of residents in the community, construction quality of shelters, and warning system effectiveness also affect vulnerability. If vulnerability is influenced by such factors, post-event impact should be, at least in part, as well. The goal of this research was to develop the Tornado Impact-Community Vulnerability Index (TICV) that utilizes variables such as the number of persons killed, economic impacts, and social vulnerability to describe to the level of impact a tornado event has on community. As tornadoes that strike unpopulated areas are often difficult to classify, even in the traditional sense, the TICV will take into consideration only events that strike communities defined as " places " according to the U.S. Census Bureau. By assigning a rating to the impact, this index will allow the severity of the storm to be understood in terms of its effect on a specific community and hence its impact, rather than in terms of its physical strength.
Global warming and climate change have been the topic of discussion among scientists, researchers... more Global warming and climate change have been the topic of discussion among scientists, researchers, politicians, policy makers, members of civil society, and people of all walks of life for more than 20 years across the globe. This discussion started in the 1980s as the "green house effect"-warming of the atmosphere due to the absorption of earth's outgoing long wave radiation by the greenhouse gases. Initially, this discussion was only among climate specialists, but started to become widespread after the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). Another event helped to generate this attention, particularly among the world's national governments, was the first Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Both the IPCC and the UNEP assess the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant for understanding risk associated with human-induced climate change. Since 1988, both have published reports on global warming and climate change and advocated the urgent need for action to prevent or reduce potential impacts climate change [1].
, the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale replaced the traditional Fujita (F) scale. The EF scale has the ... more , the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale replaced the traditional Fujita (F) scale. The EF scale has the same basic design as the original F scale, with six categories from 0 to 5 representing increasing degrees of damage [22]. 2 The estimated population of Joplin in 2010 was 50,175 [23].
Being situated at the edge of a low-lying delta, coastal Bangladesh is a classic example of a loc... more Being situated at the edge of a low-lying delta, coastal Bangladesh is a classic example of a local area in a distant third-world country, which is at the forefront of global climate change impacts. The area confronts two climate change–related hazards: (a) gradual sea level rise (SLR) and (b) increasingly more intense tropical cyclones with high-magnitude storm surges. In public discourse on climate change Bangladesh is frequently cited as the most vulnerable country for climate change impacts. Besides exacerbating other climatic hazards, such as river floods, tropical cyclones, and storm surges, global warming–induced SLR poses the greatest climatic hazard for Bangladesh since it is likely to displace millions of people from its low-lying coastal areas. This chapter reviews four structural adaptation measures undertaken in the coastal region of Bangladesh to mitigate the effects of tropical cyclones and storm surges.
Land use change is a process by which human activities transform the natural landscape, referring... more Land use change is a process by which human activities transform the natural landscape, referring to how land has been used, usually emphasizing the functional role of land for economic activities. Land use changes are often nonlinear and might trigger feedbacks to the system, stress living conditions, and threaten people with vulnerability . Therefore, not only do land use change trajectories need assessment, but also possible future conditions must be projected for certain assumptions, both basic to ensuring sustainable conditions. The primary aim of this chapter is to provide an analysis of coastal land use changes in Bangladesh by presenting temporal variations of land use changes in the coastal Bangladesh along with contemporary uses of coastal land. The chapter also includes a discussion of drivers of coastal land use changes as well as a discussion of coastal management efforts undertaken in Bangladesh.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Dec 6, 2022
Keywords Joplin tornado • Space-time clustering • Space-time permutation model • SaTScan™ • Build... more Keywords Joplin tornado • Space-time clustering • Space-time permutation model • SaTScan™ • Building permit data • Tornado recovery U.S. average (0.4 deaths per million) (Simmons and Sutter 2012) for the same period. As of 2021, the tragedy's 10th anniversary, it still stood as the deadliest and costliest tornado event since the 1950-1951 birth of the modern U.S. tornado record (2.8 billion 2011 USD actual, 3.382 billion 2021 USD adjusted) (SPC 2021), and the fifth deadliest tornado in the colonial United States and U.S. history (1680 to 2021) (Grazulis 1993; SPC 2021). After entering the community from the west as a fairly weak EF1, the funnel grew into an EF5 wedge (estimated 200 mph, 320 kph), spanning approximately 20 city blocks north-to-south at its widest points and tracking nearly the entire west-east extent of the city (Fig. 1). It curved slightly Abstract Community recovery from a major natural hazard-related disaster can be a long process, and rebuilding likely does not occur uniformly across space and time. Spatial and temporal clustering may be evident in certain data types that can be used to frame the progress of recovery following a disaster. Publically available building permit data from the city of Joplin, Missouri, were gathered for four permit types, including residential, commercial, roof repair, and demolition. The data were used to (1) compare the observed versus expected frequency (chi-square) of permit issuance before and after the EF5 2011 tornado; (2), determine if significant space-time clusters of permits existed using the SaTScan™ cluster analysis program (version 9.7); and (3) fit any emergent cluster data to the widely-cited Kates 10-year recovery model. All permit types showed significant increases in issuance for at least 5 years following the event, and one (residential) showed significance for nine of the 10 years. The cluster analysis revealed a total of 16 significant clusters across the 2011 damage area. The results of fitting the significant cluster data to the Kates model revealed that those data closely followed the model, with some variation in the residential permit data path.
... 30 % higher than the national proportion, it is representative of land-ownership patterns in ... more ... 30 % higher than the national proportion, it is representative of land-ownership patterns in the ... receive water-purification tablets and bottled water from both public and private sources. Supplies of these items during the 2007 floods in Bangladesh, particularly from government ...
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