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Ragnar Jonsson

European Commission Joint Research Centre, Directorate D, Bioeconomy Unit (D1), Scientific Project Officer

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Ragnar Jonsson joined the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in Aril 2013. Ragnar’s work centres on the analysis of forest resources and forest products needs at European level, including wood and non-wood products, and analysis of life cycle assessments of these products. Education: M.Sc. in Forestry at Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), M.Sc. in social sciences at Lund University, and D.Tech. at Växjö University. Work experience: Previously, Ragnar divided his working hours equally between a position as researcher at SLU, producing and analyzing projections of wood products demand on European level, working as a sub-work package leader in the INTEGRAL project, which aims at providing a coherent process of policy formation for the integrated management of European forest landscapes, and a position as researcher at EFINORD, a regional office of the European Forest Institute. Here the research focused on the current state of forest management and prospects for increasing the supply of woody biomass within northern Europe. Before this, Ragnar worked two years (2006 to 2008) at FAO in Rome, conducting econometric analysis of wood-product markets and producing projections of wood products supply and demand at global level.

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Elias Hurmekoski

Jari Kuuluvainen

University of Helsinki

European Commission Joint Research Centre

Alexander Moiseyev

Philippe Delacote

National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Papers by Ragnar Jonsson

MODELLING FOREST PRODUCTS DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE – Market modelling approach for EFSOS II -Background paper (3) for the Team of Specialists on Forest Sector Outlook and Outlook Correspondents- -2 nd meeting 23

by Temesgen Y Beyene and Ragnar Jonsson

Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the ... more Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the approach to the econometric analysis used for developing the market projections for EFSOS II. Due to cooperation with the Swedish Future Forest Project, initial results of these projections are already available. Outlook correspondents and ToS members are invited to review the results of the projections for their country (see separate excel spreadsheet). These results will be discussed in working group sessions during the ToS meeting, 23-24 November 2009. ToS members and outlook correspondents who will not be able to attend the meeting are invited to provide comments in writing directoly to Ragnar Jonsson at Ragnar Jonsson at [email protected].

Integrating forest-based industry and forest resource modeling

by Ragnar Jonsson and Minna Räty

This paper introduces a modeling approach for the assessment of policy options within the forest-... more This paper introduces a modeling approach for the assessment of policy options within the forest-based bioeconomy. The feedback between the forestry dynamics model and the economic model of the global forest-based sector of the proposed framework is essential, not only for response analysis as to the development of forest resources and for a correct assessment of future harvesting potentials, but also for the assessment of the impact of different management regimes on wood-based product markets. Test runs of the modeling framework on a Swedish case highlight the necessity of considering timber assortments for a comprehensive integration of forest resources and wood-based commodity market dynamics. Hence, the composition of harvest demand in terms of timber assortment affects the allocation of harvesting activities and, consequently, the development of forest resources (and thus future harvest potentials), as well as the production, trade and consumption of wood-based products.

Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System 34 PUBLICATIONS 280 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE 7 PUBLICATIONS 4 CITATIONS

by Ragnar Jonsson and Ola Sallnäs

Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is cr... more Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is crucial for accurately assessing the impact of policy and market drivers on forest resources. A serious shortcoming of existing pan-European Decision Support Systems (DSS) is that they do not account for such heterogeneity, consequently disregarding the effects that this might have on timber supply and forest development. Linking a behavioral harvesting decision model—Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA)—to a forest resource dynamics model—European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)—we provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS. The simulation results indicate that the approach holds promise as regards accounting for forest owner behavior in simulations of forest resources development. Hence, forest owner heterogeneity makes the distribution of forestland on owner types non-trivial, as it affects harvesting intensity and, subsequently, inter-temporal forest development.

Risks, Information and Short-Run Timber Supply

Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run ... more Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run timber supply. The current study aims to shed further light on harvesting decisions of private forest owners, by investigating optimal harvesting under uncertainty, when timber revenues are invested on financial markets and uncertainty is mitigated by news releases. By distinguishing between aggregate economic risk and sector specific risks, the model studies in great detail optimal harvesting-investment decisions, with particular emphasis on the non-trivial transmission of risk on optimal harvesting, and on the way private forest owners react to news and information. The analysis of the role played by information in harvesting decisions is a novelty in forest economic theory. The presented model is highly relevant from a policy—information is a commonly used forest policy instrument—as well as a practical perspective, since the mechanism of risk transmission is at the basis of timber pricing.

Ambiguity in Timber Trade Regarding Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging: Potential Impacts on Trade between South-East Asia and Europe 11 PUBLICATIONS 6 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE 32 PUBLICATIONS 113 CITATIONS

by Ragnar Jonsson, Alexandru Giurca, and Francesca Rinaldi

Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pus... more Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pushed the European Commission to raise its standards and legality demands for wood imports. Combining literature reviews, structured interviews and trade data analyses, this study assesses the potential influence from Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) (with its Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPA) system and new legislation EU Timber Regulation (EUTR)), and third party verification schemes on the timber trade between tropical countries and Europe. These instruments have the potential to reduce the amount of illegally sourced timber being placed on the market, and they seem to have resulted in both increasing support of legality verification and certification uptake. However, there are signs of increased ambiguity in trade that could originate as a side effect of the transition towards a stricter regulation for tropical timber. Such ambiguity is explicitly taken into account here. Possible consequences from increased ambiguity are substitution of oak lumber for tropical hardwood lumber, and a diversion of exports of tropical timber to destinations with a less stringent regulatory framework than the EU. Evidence of these trade patterns in the literature reviews, interviews, and trade data analyses seems to confirm that ambiguity in international trade markets has actually increased since the introduction of these instruments

Leakage Implications for European Timber Markets from Reducing Deforestation in Developing Countries 3 PUBLICATIONS 3 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE 55 PUBLICATIONS 945 CITATIONS

Forest management strategies and policies such as REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and ... more Forest management strategies and policies such as REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) may have unintentional implications for forest sectors in countries not targeted by such policies. The success of a policy effort like REDD would result in a significant reduction in deforestation and forest degradation and an ensuing reduction in the supply of natural forest timber production within participating countries. This could in turn result in price increases, inducing a supply response outside project boundaries with possible implications for forest management as well as global carbon emissions. This paper reviews the literature to discern potential timber market implications for countries sourcing wood products from developing countries affected by REDD related conservation efforts. The literature reviewed shows varying degrees of market effects leakage—policy actions in one place creating incentives for third parties to increase timber harvesting elsewhere through the price mechanism—ranging from negligible to substantial. However, wood products in the studies reviewed are dealt with on quite an aggregated scale and are assumed to be more or less perfect substitutes for wood products outside conservation effort boundaries. The review suggests that a thorough mapping of the end-uses of tropical timber is needed to comprehensively analyze impacts on wood-product markets in regions such as Europe from conservation efforts in tropical developing countries. The types of tropical timber expected to be affected, in which applications they are used, which are the most likely substitutes and where they would be sourced, are issues that, along with empirical analysis of supply and demand price elasticities and degree of substitutability, should be investigated when assessing the overall effectiveness of REDD.

Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets—Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector ARTICLE in FORESTS · DECEMBER 2011

This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and di... more This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Modeling the Impacts of EU Bioenergy Demand on the Forest Sector of the Southeast U.S. Modeling the Impacts of EU Bioenergy Demand on the Forest Sector of the Southeast U.S

The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased ... more The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased substantially recently. This research analyzes the effects of EU biomass imports from the Southeast U.S. on Southeast U.S. timber prices, inventories and production and on EU imports of feedstock. The SRTS (sub-regional timber supply model) was used to simulate market responses to changes in woody biomass consumption in the U.S. and the EU between 2008 and 2038. Results indicate that the price of imported wood pellets in the EU is sensitive to future U.S. renewable energy policies, the developments of which are so far uncertain. The analysis indicates that with bioenergy demands, prices increase for U.S. softwood roundwood from 25% to 125% by 2038 depending largely on U.S. domestic policy. Demand increases led to supply responses and increased carbon storage in Southeastern U.S. over time.

The end consumer's choice of floorcovering in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom: A comparative pilot study of substitute competition

In order to understand the competitive situation of wood, it is essential to consider the end con... more In order to understand the competitive situation of wood, it is essential to consider the end consumer of building materials. The knowledge of factors affecting the end consumers choice of building material for specific purposes, i.e., the mechanisms of substitute competition, is limited. Field studies of the British and Dutch floorcovering markets revealed that context, usage context as well as the general life situation, is of crucial importance in substitute competition. This contextual character severely limits the usefulness and adequacy of interviews with fixed-reply alternatives, as well as classical statistical methods of analysis. In this article, a qualitative approach to data gathering is combined with multivariate analysis. The results indicate that by using this methodology it is possible to determine which are the decisive predictors of material preferences, make cross-cultural comparisons, and apprehend the underlying motives or perspectives. The results further show that, unlike the other floorcovering materials studied, the determinant reasons for choosing wood appear to be exclusively nonfunctional in nature.

MODELLING AND PROJECTIONS OF WOOD PRODUCTS DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE IN EUROPE – Provisional description of the market modelling approach used for EFSOS II and EUwood, and some results

To increase the competitiveness of wood as a building material requires knowledge of which custom... more To increase the competitiveness of wood as a building material requires knowledge of which customer needs require attention in terms of quality improvement and/or product development to best satisfy customers. Hence, information as to the impact on customer satisfaction of the fulfillment of different customer needs, as well as the performance of wood and substitutes in providing for these needs, is needed. This article suggests the use of customer satisfaction modeling (CSM) for assessing customer needs. The methodology is evaluated in the context of floorcovering. The results suggest that CSM is well suited for extracting the information necessary for prioritizing customer needs: importance/impact and performance data for attributes as well as for customer benefits. The study indicates the necessity of considering substitute materials not only for performance comparisons; substitutes may also reveal otherwise latent customer needs. Practical, functional, benefits exert the greatest impact on customer satisfaction for wooden flooring as well as its closest substitutes, laminate and carpet. Hygiene and a low cost over the life cycle are apparently the customer benefits that require attention from wooden flooring manufacturers, because importance is high and performance relatively low.

Context, drivers, and future potential for wood-frame multi-story construction in Europe

by Ragnar Jonsson and Tomas Nord

Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past f... more Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past few decades in the productivity, profitability, or the environmental impact of construction. However, driven by institutional changes, promotion campaigns, and technological development in the 1990s, novel industrial wood-frame multi-story construction (WMC) practices have been emerging in some European countries. The aim of the study is to explore the WMC market potential in Europe by combining two complementary approaches: Top-down scenario analysis and bottom-up innovation diffusion analysis. The results show that the WMC diffusion is heavily dependent on the regulatory framework and the structure of the construction industry. The risk-averse nature of the construction value chain resisting the uptake of new practices appears to be a more significant hindrance for the future market potential of WMC, compared to the possible competition from alternative construction practices. It would require both increasing competition within the WMC sector and increasing cooperation between wood product suppliers and the construction sector to attract investments, to reduce costs, and to make the WMC practices more credible throughout the construction value chain.

How to cope with changing demand conditions — The Swedish forest sector as a case study: an analysis of major drivers of change in the use of wood resources

Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in t... more Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in the demand for woody biomass. This paper assesses whether wood resources in the European Union (EU) will support future demand. Possible implications for countries with ample forest resources and a well-developed forest industry, such as Sweden, of an expected mounting demand pressure are discussed. Other drivers of change in global wood product markets posing challenges for the forest sector in general are also addressed. These drivers are reviewed and, together with the results from the EUwood project and econo-metric wood market models, analyzed as to their impacts on the Swedish forest sector. Demand is foreseen to vastly exceed the potential supply of woody biomass in Europe, putting a tremendous pressure on the Swedish forest resource and necessitating trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Further, projections suggest that Sweden will decrease in importance in production as well as consumption terms for all wood products. Résumé : On prévoit que la promotion des sources d'énergie renouvelable en Europe entraînera une augmentation spectaculaire de la demande de biomasse ligneuse. Cet article évalue si les ressources ligneuses de l'Union européenne pourront supporter la demande future. Les conséquences possibles de l'augmentation pressentie de la pression de la demande pour les pays, comme la Suède, qui possèdent amplement de ressources forestières et une industrie forestière bien développée sont abordées. Les autres facteurs de changement dans les marchés mondiaux des produits du bois qui présentent des défis pour le secteur forestier en général sont également examinés. Ces facteurs sont passés en revue et, de pair avec les résultats du projet EUwood et ceux des modèles économétriques du marché du bois, sont analysés quant a ` leurs impacts sur le secteur forestier suédois. On prévoit que la demande dépassera largement l'approvisionnement potentiel de biomasse ligneuse en Europe, ce qui mettra une énorme pression sur la ressource forestière suédoise et nécessitera des compromis entre différents services de l'écosystème. De plus, les projections indiquent que la Suède perdra de l'importance en termes de production et de consommation de tous les produits du bois. [Traduit par la Rédaction]

Ambiguity in Timber Trade Regarding Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging: Potential Impacts on Trade between South-East Asia and Europe

by Ragnar Jonsson and Alexandru Giurca

Forests, 2013

Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pus... more Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pushed the European Commission to raise its standards and legality demands for wood imports. Combining literature reviews, structured interviews and trade data analyses, this study assesses the potential influence from Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) (with its Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPA) system and new legislation EU Timber Regulation (EUTR)), and third party verification schemes on the timber trade between tropical countries and Europe. These instruments have the potential to reduce the amount of illegally sourced timber being placed on the market, and they seem to have resulted in both increasing support of legality verification and certification uptake. However, there are signs of increased ambiguity in trade that could originate as a side effect of the transition towards a stricter regulation for tropical timber. Such ambiguity is explicitly taken into account here. Possible consequences from increased ambiguity are substitution of oak lumber for tropical hardwood lumber, and a diversion of exports of tropical timber to destinations with a less stringent regulatory framework than the EU. Evidence of these trade patterns in the literature reviews,

PP Presentation: European Union Timber Regulation Impact on International Timber Markets

by Ragnar Jonsson and Alexandru Giurca

European Union Timber Regulation Impacts on International Timber Markets

by Alexandru Giurca and Ragnar Jonsson

The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and eco... more The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and economic consequences. The EU’s response to this problem came with the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. In March 2013, an additional step was taken by implementing the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR). The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of sustainable forest management will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade...

ISCHP13 Proceedings

by Alexandru Giurca and Ragnar Jonsson

Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers... more Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers. The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. The EUTR is part of the EU’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of SFM will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In 2013, the first year of the EUTR, there are positive impacts, of which the most important is aware...

Prospects for timber frame in multi-storey house building in England, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden

Assessment of the EU Timber Regulation and FLEGT Action Plan

by Mauro Masiero, Ragnar Jonsson, Alexandru Giurca, and Davide Pettenella

The EU Timber Regulation and FLEGT Action Plan aim to combat illegal timber logging and trade, an... more The EU Timber Regulation and FLEGT Action Plan aim to combat illegal timber logging and trade, and improve forest governance. In 2015, FLEGT has been in force for 12 years, and the EUTR for two years. What does scientific evidence say about the effectiveness and impacts of these policy measures? The results of the new EFI policy study “Assessment of the EU Timber Regulation and the FLEGT Action Plan” have been presented at a ThinkForest seminar at the European Parliament, Brussels on 21 April.

Conditions and prospects for increasing forest yield in Northern Europe

by Ragnar Jonsson and Birger Solberg

Forests will play a crucial role in the transformation from an economy based on fossil fuels to o... more Forests will play a crucial role in the transformation from an economy based on fossil fuels to one relying on renewable resources. Hence, besides being a source of raw material for the forest industry, in the future, forests are expected to increasingly contribute to the production of energy as well as providing a wide range of environmental and social services. Thus, the objective of the present study is to assess the short-term and long-term potential for increasing sustainable wood supply in the EFINORD countries. Present practices and prospects for intensive forest management have been assessed using information from a questionnaire complemented by compilation and evaluating of national forest inventory (NFI) data and other forest sector relevant information. The study indicates a striking variation in the intensity of utilisation of the wood resources within the EFINORD region. For the region as a whole, there seems to be a substantial unused (biophysical) potential. However, recent NFI data from some countries indicate that annual felling rates can be underestimated. If felling rates are higher than currently recognised then, given the increased demand for wood-based energy, there appears to be a need to discuss strategies for large-scale implementation of more intensive forestry practices to ensure that the availability of wood resources in the future can meet an increasing demand in the EFINORD countries.

Increased image resolution of aerial thermography based on signal processing: distortion correction in line scanners

Methods for correcting scanned remote sensing images for distortions due to undesirable aircraft ... more Methods for correcting scanned remote sensing images for distortions due to undesirable aircraft motion are presented. The methods are intended for correcting distortions due to yaw and roll of the aircraft during image acquisition. The aircraft motion is estimated by analyzing the distortion of the scanned image. The correction of the distorted image is then based on the estimated motion.

MODELLING FOREST PRODUCTS DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE – Market modelling approach for EFSOS II -Background paper (3) for the Team of Specialists on Forest Sector Outlook and Outlook Correspondents- -2 nd meeting 23

by Temesgen Y Beyene and Ragnar Jonsson

Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the ... more Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the approach to the econometric analysis used for developing the market projections for EFSOS II. Due to cooperation with the Swedish Future Forest Project, initial results of these projections are already available. Outlook correspondents and ToS members are invited to review the results of the projections for their country (see separate excel spreadsheet). These results will be discussed in working group sessions during the ToS meeting, 23-24 November 2009. ToS members and outlook correspondents who will not be able to attend the meeting are invited to provide comments in writing directoly to Ragnar Jonsson at Ragnar Jonsson at [email protected].

Integrating forest-based industry and forest resource modeling

by Ragnar Jonsson and Minna Räty

This paper introduces a modeling approach for the assessment of policy options within the forest-... more This paper introduces a modeling approach for the assessment of policy options within the forest-based bioeconomy. The feedback between the forestry dynamics model and the economic model of the global forest-based sector of the proposed framework is essential, not only for response analysis as to the development of forest resources and for a correct assessment of future harvesting potentials, but also for the assessment of the impact of different management regimes on wood-based product markets. Test runs of the modeling framework on a Swedish case highlight the necessity of considering timber assortments for a comprehensive integration of forest resources and wood-based commodity market dynamics. Hence, the composition of harvest demand in terms of timber assortment affects the allocation of harvesting activities and, consequently, the development of forest resources (and thus future harvest potentials), as well as the production, trade and consumption of wood-based products.

Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System 34 PUBLICATIONS 280 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE 7 PUBLICATIONS 4 CITATIONS

by Ragnar Jonsson and Ola Sallnäs

Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is cr... more Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is crucial for accurately assessing the impact of policy and market drivers on forest resources. A serious shortcoming of existing pan-European Decision Support Systems (DSS) is that they do not account for such heterogeneity, consequently disregarding the effects that this might have on timber supply and forest development. Linking a behavioral harvesting decision model—Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA)—to a forest resource dynamics model—European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)—we provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS. The simulation results indicate that the approach holds promise as regards accounting for forest owner behavior in simulations of forest resources development. Hence, forest owner heterogeneity makes the distribution of forestland on owner types non-trivial, as it affects harvesting intensity and, subsequently, inter-temporal forest development.

Risks, Information and Short-Run Timber Supply

Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run ... more Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run timber supply. The current study aims to shed further light on harvesting decisions of private forest owners, by investigating optimal harvesting under uncertainty, when timber revenues are invested on financial markets and uncertainty is mitigated by news releases. By distinguishing between aggregate economic risk and sector specific risks, the model studies in great detail optimal harvesting-investment decisions, with particular emphasis on the non-trivial transmission of risk on optimal harvesting, and on the way private forest owners react to news and information. The analysis of the role played by information in harvesting decisions is a novelty in forest economic theory. The presented model is highly relevant from a policy—information is a commonly used forest policy instrument—as well as a practical perspective, since the mechanism of risk transmission is at the basis of timber pricing.

Ambiguity in Timber Trade Regarding Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging: Potential Impacts on Trade between South-East Asia and Europe 11 PUBLICATIONS 6 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE 32 PUBLICATIONS 113 CITATIONS

by Ragnar Jonsson, Alexandru Giurca, and Francesca Rinaldi

Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pus... more Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pushed the European Commission to raise its standards and legality demands for wood imports. Combining literature reviews, structured interviews and trade data analyses, this study assesses the potential influence from Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) (with its Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPA) system and new legislation EU Timber Regulation (EUTR)), and third party verification schemes on the timber trade between tropical countries and Europe. These instruments have the potential to reduce the amount of illegally sourced timber being placed on the market, and they seem to have resulted in both increasing support of legality verification and certification uptake. However, there are signs of increased ambiguity in trade that could originate as a side effect of the transition towards a stricter regulation for tropical timber. Such ambiguity is explicitly taken into account here. Possible consequences from increased ambiguity are substitution of oak lumber for tropical hardwood lumber, and a diversion of exports of tropical timber to destinations with a less stringent regulatory framework than the EU. Evidence of these trade patterns in the literature reviews, interviews, and trade data analyses seems to confirm that ambiguity in international trade markets has actually increased since the introduction of these instruments

Leakage Implications for European Timber Markets from Reducing Deforestation in Developing Countries 3 PUBLICATIONS 3 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE 55 PUBLICATIONS 945 CITATIONS

Forest management strategies and policies such as REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and ... more Forest management strategies and policies such as REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) may have unintentional implications for forest sectors in countries not targeted by such policies. The success of a policy effort like REDD would result in a significant reduction in deforestation and forest degradation and an ensuing reduction in the supply of natural forest timber production within participating countries. This could in turn result in price increases, inducing a supply response outside project boundaries with possible implications for forest management as well as global carbon emissions. This paper reviews the literature to discern potential timber market implications for countries sourcing wood products from developing countries affected by REDD related conservation efforts. The literature reviewed shows varying degrees of market effects leakage—policy actions in one place creating incentives for third parties to increase timber harvesting elsewhere through the price mechanism—ranging from negligible to substantial. However, wood products in the studies reviewed are dealt with on quite an aggregated scale and are assumed to be more or less perfect substitutes for wood products outside conservation effort boundaries. The review suggests that a thorough mapping of the end-uses of tropical timber is needed to comprehensively analyze impacts on wood-product markets in regions such as Europe from conservation efforts in tropical developing countries. The types of tropical timber expected to be affected, in which applications they are used, which are the most likely substitutes and where they would be sourced, are issues that, along with empirical analysis of supply and demand price elasticities and degree of substitutability, should be investigated when assessing the overall effectiveness of REDD.

Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets—Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector ARTICLE in FORESTS · DECEMBER 2011

This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and di... more This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Modeling the Impacts of EU Bioenergy Demand on the Forest Sector of the Southeast U.S. Modeling the Impacts of EU Bioenergy Demand on the Forest Sector of the Southeast U.S

The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased ... more The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased substantially recently. This research analyzes the effects of EU biomass imports from the Southeast U.S. on Southeast U.S. timber prices, inventories and production and on EU imports of feedstock. The SRTS (sub-regional timber supply model) was used to simulate market responses to changes in woody biomass consumption in the U.S. and the EU between 2008 and 2038. Results indicate that the price of imported wood pellets in the EU is sensitive to future U.S. renewable energy policies, the developments of which are so far uncertain. The analysis indicates that with bioenergy demands, prices increase for U.S. softwood roundwood from 25% to 125% by 2038 depending largely on U.S. domestic policy. Demand increases led to supply responses and increased carbon storage in Southeastern U.S. over time.

The end consumer's choice of floorcovering in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom: A comparative pilot study of substitute competition

In order to understand the competitive situation of wood, it is essential to consider the end con... more In order to understand the competitive situation of wood, it is essential to consider the end consumer of building materials. The knowledge of factors affecting the end consumers choice of building material for specific purposes, i.e., the mechanisms of substitute competition, is limited. Field studies of the British and Dutch floorcovering markets revealed that context, usage context as well as the general life situation, is of crucial importance in substitute competition. This contextual character severely limits the usefulness and adequacy of interviews with fixed-reply alternatives, as well as classical statistical methods of analysis. In this article, a qualitative approach to data gathering is combined with multivariate analysis. The results indicate that by using this methodology it is possible to determine which are the decisive predictors of material preferences, make cross-cultural comparisons, and apprehend the underlying motives or perspectives. The results further show that, unlike the other floorcovering materials studied, the determinant reasons for choosing wood appear to be exclusively nonfunctional in nature.

MODELLING AND PROJECTIONS OF WOOD PRODUCTS DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE IN EUROPE – Provisional description of the market modelling approach used for EFSOS II and EUwood, and some results

To increase the competitiveness of wood as a building material requires knowledge of which custom... more To increase the competitiveness of wood as a building material requires knowledge of which customer needs require attention in terms of quality improvement and/or product development to best satisfy customers. Hence, information as to the impact on customer satisfaction of the fulfillment of different customer needs, as well as the performance of wood and substitutes in providing for these needs, is needed. This article suggests the use of customer satisfaction modeling (CSM) for assessing customer needs. The methodology is evaluated in the context of floorcovering. The results suggest that CSM is well suited for extracting the information necessary for prioritizing customer needs: importance/impact and performance data for attributes as well as for customer benefits. The study indicates the necessity of considering substitute materials not only for performance comparisons; substitutes may also reveal otherwise latent customer needs. Practical, functional, benefits exert the greatest impact on customer satisfaction for wooden flooring as well as its closest substitutes, laminate and carpet. Hygiene and a low cost over the life cycle are apparently the customer benefits that require attention from wooden flooring manufacturers, because importance is high and performance relatively low.

Context, drivers, and future potential for wood-frame multi-story construction in Europe

by Ragnar Jonsson and Tomas Nord

Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past f... more Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past few decades in the productivity, profitability, or the environmental impact of construction. However, driven by institutional changes, promotion campaigns, and technological development in the 1990s, novel industrial wood-frame multi-story construction (WMC) practices have been emerging in some European countries. The aim of the study is to explore the WMC market potential in Europe by combining two complementary approaches: Top-down scenario analysis and bottom-up innovation diffusion analysis. The results show that the WMC diffusion is heavily dependent on the regulatory framework and the structure of the construction industry. The risk-averse nature of the construction value chain resisting the uptake of new practices appears to be a more significant hindrance for the future market potential of WMC, compared to the possible competition from alternative construction practices. It would require both increasing competition within the WMC sector and increasing cooperation between wood product suppliers and the construction sector to attract investments, to reduce costs, and to make the WMC practices more credible throughout the construction value chain.

How to cope with changing demand conditions — The Swedish forest sector as a case study: an analysis of major drivers of change in the use of wood resources

Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in t... more Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in the demand for woody biomass. This paper assesses whether wood resources in the European Union (EU) will support future demand. Possible implications for countries with ample forest resources and a well-developed forest industry, such as Sweden, of an expected mounting demand pressure are discussed. Other drivers of change in global wood product markets posing challenges for the forest sector in general are also addressed. These drivers are reviewed and, together with the results from the EUwood project and econo-metric wood market models, analyzed as to their impacts on the Swedish forest sector. Demand is foreseen to vastly exceed the potential supply of woody biomass in Europe, putting a tremendous pressure on the Swedish forest resource and necessitating trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Further, projections suggest that Sweden will decrease in importance in production as well as consumption terms for all wood products. Résumé : On prévoit que la promotion des sources d'énergie renouvelable en Europe entraînera une augmentation spectaculaire de la demande de biomasse ligneuse. Cet article évalue si les ressources ligneuses de l'Union européenne pourront supporter la demande future. Les conséquences possibles de l'augmentation pressentie de la pression de la demande pour les pays, comme la Suède, qui possèdent amplement de ressources forestières et une industrie forestière bien développée sont abordées. Les autres facteurs de changement dans les marchés mondiaux des produits du bois qui présentent des défis pour le secteur forestier en général sont également examinés. Ces facteurs sont passés en revue et, de pair avec les résultats du projet EUwood et ceux des modèles économétriques du marché du bois, sont analysés quant a ` leurs impacts sur le secteur forestier suédois. On prévoit que la demande dépassera largement l'approvisionnement potentiel de biomasse ligneuse en Europe, ce qui mettra une énorme pression sur la ressource forestière suédoise et nécessitera des compromis entre différents services de l'écosystème. De plus, les projections indiquent que la Suède perdra de l'importance en termes de production et de consommation de tous les produits du bois. [Traduit par la Rédaction]

Ambiguity in Timber Trade Regarding Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging: Potential Impacts on Trade between South-East Asia and Europe

by Ragnar Jonsson and Alexandru Giurca

Forests, 2013

Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pus... more Raised public concern in the European Union (EU) about the legality of its timber imports has pushed the European Commission to raise its standards and legality demands for wood imports. Combining literature reviews, structured interviews and trade data analyses, this study assesses the potential influence from Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) (with its Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPA) system and new legislation EU Timber Regulation (EUTR)), and third party verification schemes on the timber trade between tropical countries and Europe. These instruments have the potential to reduce the amount of illegally sourced timber being placed on the market, and they seem to have resulted in both increasing support of legality verification and certification uptake. However, there are signs of increased ambiguity in trade that could originate as a side effect of the transition towards a stricter regulation for tropical timber. Such ambiguity is explicitly taken into account here. Possible consequences from increased ambiguity are substitution of oak lumber for tropical hardwood lumber, and a diversion of exports of tropical timber to destinations with a less stringent regulatory framework than the EU. Evidence of these trade patterns in the literature reviews,

PP Presentation: European Union Timber Regulation Impact on International Timber Markets

by Ragnar Jonsson and Alexandru Giurca

European Union Timber Regulation Impacts on International Timber Markets

by Alexandru Giurca and Ragnar Jonsson

The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and eco... more The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and economic consequences. The EU’s response to this problem came with the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. In March 2013, an additional step was taken by implementing the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR). The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of sustainable forest management will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade...

ISCHP13 Proceedings

by Alexandru Giurca and Ragnar Jonsson

Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers... more Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers. The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. The EUTR is part of the EU’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of SFM will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In 2013, the first year of the EUTR, there are positive impacts, of which the most important is aware...

Prospects for timber frame in multi-storey house building in England, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden

Assessment of the EU Timber Regulation and FLEGT Action Plan

by Mauro Masiero, Ragnar Jonsson, Alexandru Giurca, and Davide Pettenella

The EU Timber Regulation and FLEGT Action Plan aim to combat illegal timber logging and trade, an... more The EU Timber Regulation and FLEGT Action Plan aim to combat illegal timber logging and trade, and improve forest governance. In 2015, FLEGT has been in force for 12 years, and the EUTR for two years. What does scientific evidence say about the effectiveness and impacts of these policy measures? The results of the new EFI policy study “Assessment of the EU Timber Regulation and the FLEGT Action Plan” have been presented at a ThinkForest seminar at the European Parliament, Brussels on 21 April.

Conditions and prospects for increasing forest yield in Northern Europe

by Ragnar Jonsson and Birger Solberg

Forests will play a crucial role in the transformation from an economy based on fossil fuels to o... more Forests will play a crucial role in the transformation from an economy based on fossil fuels to one relying on renewable resources. Hence, besides being a source of raw material for the forest industry, in the future, forests are expected to increasingly contribute to the production of energy as well as providing a wide range of environmental and social services. Thus, the objective of the present study is to assess the short-term and long-term potential for increasing sustainable wood supply in the EFINORD countries. Present practices and prospects for intensive forest management have been assessed using information from a questionnaire complemented by compilation and evaluating of national forest inventory (NFI) data and other forest sector relevant information. The study indicates a striking variation in the intensity of utilisation of the wood resources within the EFINORD region. For the region as a whole, there seems to be a substantial unused (biophysical) potential. However, recent NFI data from some countries indicate that annual felling rates can be underestimated. If felling rates are higher than currently recognised then, given the increased demand for wood-based energy, there appears to be a need to discuss strategies for large-scale implementation of more intensive forestry practices to ensure that the availability of wood resources in the future can meet an increasing demand in the EFINORD countries.

Increased image resolution of aerial thermography based on signal processing: distortion correction in line scanners

Methods for correcting scanned remote sensing images for distortions due to undesirable aircraft ... more Methods for correcting scanned remote sensing images for distortions due to undesirable aircraft motion are presented. The methods are intended for correcting distortions due to yaw and roll of the aircraft during image acquisition. The aircraft motion is estimated by analyzing the distortion of the scanned image. The correction of the distorted image is then based on the estimated motion.