
Peter Case
My research encompasses leadership studies, organizational development and international development. For the past four years I have acted as a programme management consultant for Malaria Elimination Initiative (MEI) at the University of California San Francisco, funded by the Bill
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Papers by Peter Case
• served to consolidate and summarise social scientific thinking about organizations;
• gave due emphasis to the relativity of perspective;
• offered new ways of seeing and interpreting organizational conduct through a series of highly suggestive metaphors;
• enabled new forms of social and organizational critique;
• served as an impressively comprehensive yet accessible and student-friendly teaching resource.
A generally accepted prediction market model is modified, by introducing two additional concepts: “proper information market” and “relevant information”. Our work then provides original contributions to the theoretical discourse on information markets, including finding the sufficient and necessary condition for convergence to the best possible prediction. It is shown in our new prediction market model that “all agents express relevant information” is a sufficient and necessary condition for convergence to the direct communication equilibrium in a proper information (prediction) market.
Our new prediction market model is used to formulate a simple decision market model of the joint elicitation market type. It is shown that our decision market will select the best decision if a specific selection and payout rule is defined. Importantly, our decision market model does not need to delay payment of any contracts to the observation of the desired outcome. Therefore, when dealing with long-term outcome projects, our decision market does not need to be a long running market.
Future work will test for the statistical significance of relevant information (identified as important in our idealized decision market model) in laboratory and real world settings.
• served to consolidate and summarise social scientific thinking about organizations;
• gave due emphasis to the relativity of perspective;
• offered new ways of seeing and interpreting organizational conduct through a series of highly suggestive metaphors;
• enabled new forms of social and organizational critique;
• served as an impressively comprehensive yet accessible and student-friendly teaching resource.
A generally accepted prediction market model is modified, by introducing two additional concepts: “proper information market” and “relevant information”. Our work then provides original contributions to the theoretical discourse on information markets, including finding the sufficient and necessary condition for convergence to the best possible prediction. It is shown in our new prediction market model that “all agents express relevant information” is a sufficient and necessary condition for convergence to the direct communication equilibrium in a proper information (prediction) market.
Our new prediction market model is used to formulate a simple decision market model of the joint elicitation market type. It is shown that our decision market will select the best decision if a specific selection and payout rule is defined. Importantly, our decision market model does not need to delay payment of any contracts to the observation of the desired outcome. Therefore, when dealing with long-term outcome projects, our decision market does not need to be a long running market.
Future work will test for the statistical significance of relevant information (identified as important in our idealized decision market model) in laboratory and real world settings.