Papers by Ioana Constantin-Bercean
On-line Journal Modelling the New Europe, 2018
Europe and Iran have had important political, cultural and commercial relations that date back se... more Europe and Iran have had important political, cultural and commercial relations that date back several centuries, but these relations have been steadily strained since 2002 when the uncertainty with regard to Iran's nuclear program became an issue of international concern. In the attempt to demonstrate its role as an important foreign policy actor capable of taking the lead in resolving a global crisis, through the leadership of France, United Kingdom and Germany (EU3) the European Union spearheaded efforts to obtain a solution to the deadlock between Tehran and the international community over Iran's nuclear program. Nowadays, after the nuclear agreement with Iran was sealed, the EU can move beyond its exclusive nuclear focus with Iran, and shift to a relationship based on engagement, not containment. However, this goal encounters an unforeseen obstacle: the new American Administration, who wants to shift the US policy on Iran toward aggressive containment and away from the diplomatic openings created by the precedent one. Therefore, it looks that the divide between Europe and the US is set to deepen over Iran, as long as the Trump Administration's heated rhetoric and actions will continue. The EU made it clear, through its High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy statements that it will continue to support the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Furthermore, the European leaders understood that a constructive relationship between Iran and the EU is essential for the latter, and it could help to achieve its common security and defense objectives while safeguarding its commercial and energy interests. This article aims to present the relation between Europe Union and Iran post-JCPOA and the European agenda on Iran and to explain how and whether the nuclear agreement could become the reason of a European-American cleavage.
Revista de Științe Politice și Relații Internaționale, 2023
Turkey, as most of the nations that once were great empires, often has an conceited sense of its ... more Turkey, as most of the nations that once were great empires, often has an conceited sense of its heydays. This often leads to a readiness to be inspired, or a vulnerability to be manipulated, by effective politicians who are able to instrumentalize this kind of narrative. Understanding the importance of Turkey's imperial past is essential to understanding its 21 st century foreign policy. Since the late 2010s, Turkey has systematically positioned itself as a power aspiring for significant strategic autonomy in international affairs, for which reason researchers had to look for new analytical approaches to describe its behaviour in the international arena and relations with its neighbours. The concept of "strategic hedging" allows analysing more accurately Turkey's multidirectional foreign policy, which does not correspond with the classical models of behaviour typical of middle powers. This research argues that, due to a complex of international and domestic developments, Turkey has been trying to combine different types of balancing and, more importantly, hedging. The paper explores how Turkey, in pursuit of its main goal of becoming a major regional actor, not that is only retaining, but also is trying to enhance its strategic autonomy in international relations. The structural (neo-realist) and ideational (constructivist) approaches, and that of strategic balancing, are the main benchmarks underlying the methodological and theoretical framework of this article.
Revista de Științe Politice și Relații Internaționale, 2024
„Și dacă ne-am înșelat?” , s-a întrebat retoric la finalul celui de-al doilea mandat prezidențial... more „Și dacă ne-am înșelat?” , s-a întrebat retoric la finalul celui de-al doilea mandat prezidențial Barack Obama. „Poate am mers prea departe. Poate că oamenii vor doar să se întoarcă fiecare la tribul lui” . Donald J. Trump tocmai câștigase alegerile prezidențiale, în 8 noiembrie 2016, și jumătate dintre americani se întrebau: 𝒄𝒆 𝒔-𝒂 𝒊̂𝒏𝒕𝒂̂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒕? Dar dacă, totuși, nimic neobișnuit nu se întâmplase, iar întrebarea-meditație pusă de fostul președinte Obama reflecta adevărata stare a națiunii americane. „Cine suntem?” este întrebarea la care au încercat să răspundă, la distanță de un secol, Daniel Webster, unul dintre cei mai faimoși oratori și constituționaliști ai Americii, și renumitul sociolog Samuel P. Huntington.
Polarizarea societății americane este una dintre temele cele mai discutate (și disputate) în ultimii 15-20 de ani, de către sociologi, practicanți (cercetători, diplomați, analiști) ai relațiilor internaționale și de jurnaliști. Sunt voci care contestă această polarizare sau altele care propun diverse tipologii de falii care au divizat America.
Am mers pe abordarea lui Huntington, dar și pe învățămintele adunate în cei câțiva ani petrecuți în SUA, și am ajuns la concluzia că societatea americană este polarizată iar liniile de fractură nu sunt nici noi, nici neobișnuite. Identitatea religioasă s-a conturat în SUA încă din 1630, din primii zori ai coloniștilor englezi debarcați pe coasta Atlanticului, când viziunea lui John Winthrop, unul dintre părinții fondatori ai coloniei Massachusetts, expusă în „Modelul carității creștine”, era aceea că ei, coloniștii, trebuiau să încheie un legământ cu Dumnezeu și aveau responsabilitatea de a crea un loc de conviețuire și un consorțiu sub o formă de guvernare atât civilă, cât și ecleziastică.
The beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by a proliferation of hybrid wars, fought be... more The beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by a proliferation of hybrid wars, fought between flexible and sophisticated adversaries engaged in asymmetric conflicts using various forms of warfare according to the purpose and timing. The emergence of this kind of war specifically for the new globalized economy, increasingly integrated and polarized, has questioned traditional and conventional military thinking, generated a debate on the definition of the new concept of hybrid war and appropriate measures to take, in order to adapt to the new reality imposed by it. The violent conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out in 2014 has become a case study for hybrid conflict thru which Russia revealed only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to reinforce its imperialistic view on foreign policy. Russia will continue to wage a massive propaganda and information warfare campaign with the ultimate goal of undermining NATO and the EU by creating a pro-Russian narrative and even political change. This part of hybrid warfare will not easily disappear: it has been part of Russian thinking for over half of a century. This article focuses on the Russian strategy of indirect warfare during the Ukrainian crisis, providing also an analytical overview of the political developments of relations between Russia and the EU following the 2014 events in Ukraine.
Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Studia Europaea, 2017
Islam in Azerbaijan is a multifaceted phenomenon, which can be understood only in the context of ... more Islam in Azerbaijan is a multifaceted phenomenon, which can be understood only in the context of a society in transition. Nowadays Islam plays only a very limited role in the political sphere and only a small part of the population supports the idea of establishing an 'Islamic order'. This is due to the long tradition of secularism in Azerbaijan and to the fact that the strong nationalistic movement is secular in character and sometimes even fights together with the ruling elite against their rival, political Islam. In many regards, Azerbaijan stands as an original study-case foe an in-depth investigation on interaction between Sunnis and Shiites. The purpose of this research is to present some aspects of Islam – the Shia branch – within the former frontiers of the defunct Soviet Union, assuming that this issue is mainly defined by the borders of the Republic of Azerbaijan. In contrast to the opinion that Islam displays a more or less uniform character in all former Muslim Soviet republics, it is true to say that in these countries Islam was basically shaped by the specific circumstances of each republic, rather than by international Islamic movements and trends.
All significant concepts of the modern theory of the state are secularized theological concepts n... more All significant concepts of the modern theory of the state are secularized theological concepts not only because of their historical development (...) but also because of their systematic structure, the recognition of which is necessary for a sociological consideration of these concepts".
Romanian Review of Political Sciences and International Relations, Jan 20, 2021
In the summer of 2009 the world was watching Iran. Not because of the unresolved question of its ... more In the summer of 2009 the world was watching Iran. Not because of the unresolved question of its nuclear program, nor Iran’s troubled relationship with the United States, nor (at least not primarily) because of human rights abuses. The world and its media were watching Iran because, thirty years after the Islamic revolution of 1979 (and a hundred years after the Constitutional revolution of 1906–11), Iranians were again on the streets of Tehran in hundreds of thousands, demanding free, democratic government and an end to tyranny. Iranians sometimes have an exaggerated sense of their country’s importance in the world. But for once it appeared justified. Would the Islamic republic fall? Or might it shift to a more open, freer version of itself that permitted elections to run their course – in contrast to the manipulated process enforced by repression many believed they had suffered after 12 June 2009? If there is a spirit of movement and change in world events, which moves from place to place over time according to crises in human affairs, then that spirit was alive in Tehran in the summer of 2009. Ten years later, the streets of Teheran were filled, once again, with millions of Iranians, protesting not only against the increase in petrol prices, but the desperate economic and political conditions in the country. Yet, those watching the course of events in Iran have underestimated, once again, the role of religion. This essay provides a brief context for the latest outbreaks of these tensions and offers a perspective on the struggle between Islam and democracy in the contemporary Islamic Republic of Iran.
Începând cu mijlocul anilor 1980, Israelul, Statele Unite și alte puteri occidentale au acuzat I... more Începând cu mijlocul anilor 1980, Israelul, Statele Unite și alte puteri occidentale au acuzat Iranul că urmărește dezvoltarea capabilităților nucleare. Oficialii iranieni au negat categoric aceste acuzații și au susținut că programul lor nuclear este conceput în scopuri civile. Acest eseu analizează pe scurt programul nuclear al Iranului, precum și percepția acestuia în Statele Unite, explorând și potențialul impact al noii administrații de la Washington asupra diplomației nucleare față de Iran. Teoretic, nivelul scăzut al interacțiunii și cominicării va genera o tendință mai mare de sfidare din partea Iranului, deoarece statele afectate resping și încearcă să se opună presiunilor de integrare. Astfel, efortul de reafirmare al conducerii Statelor Unite față de Iran, ar putea spori înstrăinarea celui din urmă, ceea ce ar conduce la provocarea și escaladarea tensiunilor nucleare.
Islam in Azerbaijan is a multifaceted phenomenon, which can be understood only in the context of ... more Islam in Azerbaijan is a multifaceted phenomenon, which can be understood only in the context of a society in transition. Nowadays Islam plays only a very limited role in the political sphere and only a small part of the population supports the idea of establishing an 'Islamic order'. This is due to the long tradition of secularism in Azerbaijan and to the fact that the strong nationalistic movement is secular in character and sometimes even fights together with the ruling elite against their rival, political Islam. In many regards, Azerbaijan stands as an original study-case foe an in-depth investigation on interaction between Sunnis and Shiites. The purpose of this research is to present some aspects of Islam – the Shia branch – within the former frontiers of the defunct Soviet Union, assuming that this issue is mainly defined by the borders of the Republic of Azerbaijan. In contrast to the opinion that Islam displays a more or less uniform character in all former Muslim Soviet republics, it is true to say that in these countries Islam was basically shaped by the specific circumstances of each republic, rather than by international Islamic movements and trends.
Stabilirea unui pol de putere în Orientul Mijlociu a reprezentat întotdeauna o provocare. Puteril... more Stabilirea unui pol de putere în Orientul Mijlociu a reprezentat întotdeauna o provocare. Puterile regionale – Iran, Arabia Saudită, Turcia și Israel – au tendința de a alterna perioadele de emergență cu cele de declin, iar din jocul regional nu au lipsit niciodată actorii externi, în special Statele Unite și Rusia, care și-au urmărit propriile interese în regiune. În stadiul actual al jocului, Iranul – cu sensibilitățile sale persane și șiite – este ceea ce am putea numi o putere emergentă. De ani de zile Iranul și-a extins influența în detrimentul rivalilor arabi, care au fost preocuoați fie de conflictele militare regionale, de tulburările civile, fie de prețul scăzut al petrolului. Emergența iraniană a agravat în mod natural tensiunile din regiune, tensiuni care deocamdată nu dau nici un semn de ameliorare. La 21 mai 2017, președintele american Donald Trump a vizitat Arabia Saudită, iar discursul susținut la Riad acesta a părut a transmite un mesaj pentru unificarea lumii sunnite împotriva Iranului șiit. Pe 19 mai 2017 iranienii și-au ales noul (vechi) președinte, Hassan Rouhani – un moderat dacă avem în vedere standardele Teheranului, care a ajutat la negocierea acordului nuclear (JCPOA), concretizat și semnat în 2015. Tentația unei presupuneri optimiste că tendința moderată va continua există, însă comportamentul unui stat nu este dictat nici de discursuri sau alegeri, ci de imperative și constrângeri geopolitice – iar Iranul are câteva constrângeri care i-ar putea limita măsura în care își poate proiecta puterea. Majoritatea analizelor își orientează narațiunea fie înspre relația Iran-Occident (SUA în mod particular), fie înspre relațiile Iran-Lumea Arabă-Israel, relația Teheranului cu restul puterilor emergente fiind fie exclusă din narațiune, fie amintită în mod parcimonios. Ceea ce este de înțeles, dat fiind faptul că marile decizii se iau în capitalele occidentale, la Moscova sau la Beijing. Însă acest eseu propune o schimbare de paradigmă în analiza politicii externe a Iranului, în special a politicii nucleare, abordând relația Teheranului cu trei dintre statele BRICS, și anume cu India, Brazilia și Africa de Sud (IBSA), așa-numitul „sud global”.
Even if the so-called Islamic State suffered significant defeats, and it is probably just a matte... more Even if the so-called Islamic State suffered significant defeats, and it is probably just a matter of time until its final days is Syria and Iraq, the cause that lead to the rise of this group, namely the religious resurrection, still remains an important issue in the international relations field. This research aims to shed light on the importance of the religious resurrection and its role in shaping the new international security environment, analyzing in this context the strategy by which Iran can expand its influence in the Middle East. This essay is structured into three parts, as follows: the first part is dedicated to the relationship between the religious resurgence and the rise of the terrorist phenomenon; the second part proposes an analysis of the liaisons between the three Shiite governments in Syria, Iraq and Iran; the third section is dedicated to the analysis of Iran's foreign policy, particularly to the opportunities to expand its influence in the region.
The use of chemical weapons (CW) in Syria and the decision to award the 2013 Nobel Prize to the O... more The use of chemical weapons (CW) in Syria and the decision to award the 2013 Nobel Prize to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons reminded the international community that these weapons continue to represent a serious threat. The number of incidents of chemical attacks has been increasing in recent years, and efforts to curb CW programs have generally proven unsatisfactory. However, in the immediate aftermath of the CW attacks over the civilians from the Syrian city of Khan Sheikhoun, the American president Donald Trump took a punitive measure and ordered a missiles attack over the airbase of Shayrat. This essay main goal is to present the path to this decision and which were the factors behind it, along with few possible scenarios regarding the consequences of this action. Was this an emotional reaction without a back up strategy or Trump just became the true leader of the Free World and finally he is assuming this role? Is this new approach a show off act or is a big shift toward the American exceptionalism that characterized the American foreign policy for more than two centuries? These are some of the questions that this essay attempts to answer, although the conditions and data are still insufficient and still in progress, and only time will tell if this event, so hot yet, was just an isolated gesture or will be followed up by a strategic vision.
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No place symbolizes the Cold War better than Berlin. In July, 1945 the wartime Allies met on the ... more No place symbolizes the Cold War better than Berlin. In July, 1945 the wartime Allies met on the outskirts of Adolf Hitler’s ruined capital and barely managed to paper over their differences. Three summers later, Berlin brought them to the brink of war. Crises of 1950s and the early 1960s created a new symbol of their conflict, materialized by the Berlin Wall. The American and Soviet tanks, facing each other at the Checkpoint Charlie, have only one competitor as an iconic image of the Cold War: a cargo plane flying over the war-ravaged city during the berlin Blockade. From June 1948 to May 1949, the Soviet Union isolated the western half of the city from its normal source of supplies. The other occupying powers the United States, Great Britain and France, sustained their sectors by flying in coal, food and other necessities. Over the generation, the contrast between the Stalin ruthless blockade and the humanitarian western airlift, offered eloquent proof of Arthur Schlesinger’s contention that Western Cold War policies were “the brave and essential response of free men to communist aggression”. This essay aims to clarify few aspects over the Berlin Blockade, covering the diplomatic maneuvers, the evolution of the airlift and the events in the blockaded city.
Key words: Berlin Blockade, Cold War, Soviet Union, liberalism, realism.
"Este o eroare să credem că situația actuală este similară celei din perioada Războiului Rece. Vr... more "Este o eroare să credem că situația actuală este similară celei din perioada Războiului Rece. Vremurile actuale sunt diferite și mai periculoase, pentru că acum nu mai sunt mecanisme de reglaj" (Ministrul de externe german, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 8 octombrie 2016). Înrăutățirea relației dintre Washington și Moscova s-a produs după ce armistițiul privind încetarea ostilităților militare din Alep, din luna septembrie, a fost încălcat la mai puțin de o săptămână de partea rusă, Washington-ul acuzând Damasc-ul și Moscova de crime de război. Wolfgang Ischinger, fost mediator OSCE pentru Ucraina, a declarat "că situația creată este cea mai periculoasă din ultimele decenii iar încrederea dintre Vest și Est nu a avut niciodată un nivel atât de scăzut".
"Reamintesc 'strategilor' americani că rachetele antiaeriene S-300 și S-200 care asigură acoperir... more "Reamintesc 'strategilor' americani că rachetele antiaeriene S-300 și S-200 care asigură acoperirea aeriană a bazelor rusești din Hmeimim și Tartus au o rază de acțiune care poate surprinde orice aeronavă neidentificată". Această afirmație nu este una scoasă din arhivele Războiului Rece, ci este una recentă, făcută de generalul Igor Konashenkov, purtătorul de cuvânt al armatei rusești, citat de Sputniknews. La mai bine de un sfert de veac de la încheierea formală a Războiului Rece, scena relațiilor internaționale pare să se fi încins din nou, Moscova refuzând să înțeleagă că nu îi mai este recunoscut dreptul la sfera de influență în Estul Europei, mai mult, ultimele acțiuni ale Kremlinului arată intenția de a-și extinde și ranforsa (din nou) influența dincolo de Europa, înspre Orientul Mijlociu (Siria, Iran) și Africa (Egipt).
La șase ani de la izbucnirea revoltei - devenită între timp război civil - din Siria, Europa este... more La șase ani de la izbucnirea revoltei - devenită între timp război civil - din Siria, Europa este măcinată de o cascada de atentate și atacuri teroriste în fața cărora bătrânul continent pare să își fi pierdut busola. Lipsa de reacție a Europei și a Americii în primele faze ale războiului, atunci când încă se mai putea face ceva în sensul stabilizării zonei, este acum pe deplin resimțită în special în spațiul european comunitar.
The beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by a proliferation of hybrid wars, fought be... more The beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by a proliferation of hybrid wars, fought between flexible and sophisticated adversaries engaged in asymmetric conflicts using various forms of warfare according to the purpose and timing. The emergence of this kind of war specifically for the new globalized economy, increasingly integrated and polarized, has questioned traditional and conventional military thinking, generated a debate on the definition of the new concept of hybrid war and appropriate measures to take, in order to adapt to the new reality imposed by it. The violent conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out in 2014 has become a case study for hybrid conflict thru which Russia revealed only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to reinforce its imperialistic view on foreign policy. Russia will continue to wage a massive propaganda and information warfare campaign with the ultimate goal of undermining NATO and the EU by creating a pro-Russian narrative and even political change. This part of hybrid warfare will not easily disappear: it has been part of Russian thinking for over half of a century. This article focuses on the Russian strategy of indirect warfare during the Ukrainian crisis, providing also an analytical overview of the political developments of relations between Russia and the EU following the 2014 events in Ukraine.
Abstract
Since 2001, a preponderence of terrorist activity in Europe, North America and Australi... more Abstract
Since 2001, a preponderence of terrorist activity in Europe, North America and Australia, has involved radicalized Westerners inspired by al Qaeda and during the last couple of years, by ISIS. Described as homegrown terrorism, perpertrators are citizens and residents born, raised and educated within the countries they attack. Transformative learning theory suggests that sustained behavoiural change can occur when critical reflection and the development of novel personal belief systems are provoked by specific triggering factors. In applying this theory to homegrown terrorism, this study helps explain how formerly non-violent individuals come to condone, legitimize and participate in violent behavoiur.
Keywords: homegrown terrorism, radicalization, transforming learning theory, identity, Islamism.
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Papers by Ioana Constantin-Bercean
Polarizarea societății americane este una dintre temele cele mai discutate (și disputate) în ultimii 15-20 de ani, de către sociologi, practicanți (cercetători, diplomați, analiști) ai relațiilor internaționale și de jurnaliști. Sunt voci care contestă această polarizare sau altele care propun diverse tipologii de falii care au divizat America.
Am mers pe abordarea lui Huntington, dar și pe învățămintele adunate în cei câțiva ani petrecuți în SUA, și am ajuns la concluzia că societatea americană este polarizată iar liniile de fractură nu sunt nici noi, nici neobișnuite. Identitatea religioasă s-a conturat în SUA încă din 1630, din primii zori ai coloniștilor englezi debarcați pe coasta Atlanticului, când viziunea lui John Winthrop, unul dintre părinții fondatori ai coloniei Massachusetts, expusă în „Modelul carității creștine”, era aceea că ei, coloniștii, trebuiau să încheie un legământ cu Dumnezeu și aveau responsabilitatea de a crea un loc de conviețuire și un consorțiu sub o formă de guvernare atât civilă, cât și ecleziastică.
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Key words: Berlin Blockade, Cold War, Soviet Union, liberalism, realism.
Since 2001, a preponderence of terrorist activity in Europe, North America and Australia, has involved radicalized Westerners inspired by al Qaeda and during the last couple of years, by ISIS. Described as homegrown terrorism, perpertrators are citizens and residents born, raised and educated within the countries they attack. Transformative learning theory suggests that sustained behavoiural change can occur when critical reflection and the development of novel personal belief systems are provoked by specific triggering factors. In applying this theory to homegrown terrorism, this study helps explain how formerly non-violent individuals come to condone, legitimize and participate in violent behavoiur.
Keywords: homegrown terrorism, radicalization, transforming learning theory, identity, Islamism.
Polarizarea societății americane este una dintre temele cele mai discutate (și disputate) în ultimii 15-20 de ani, de către sociologi, practicanți (cercetători, diplomați, analiști) ai relațiilor internaționale și de jurnaliști. Sunt voci care contestă această polarizare sau altele care propun diverse tipologii de falii care au divizat America.
Am mers pe abordarea lui Huntington, dar și pe învățămintele adunate în cei câțiva ani petrecuți în SUA, și am ajuns la concluzia că societatea americană este polarizată iar liniile de fractură nu sunt nici noi, nici neobișnuite. Identitatea religioasă s-a conturat în SUA încă din 1630, din primii zori ai coloniștilor englezi debarcați pe coasta Atlanticului, când viziunea lui John Winthrop, unul dintre părinții fondatori ai coloniei Massachusetts, expusă în „Modelul carității creștine”, era aceea că ei, coloniștii, trebuiau să încheie un legământ cu Dumnezeu și aveau responsabilitatea de a crea un loc de conviețuire și un consorțiu sub o formă de guvernare atât civilă, cât și ecleziastică.
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Key words: Berlin Blockade, Cold War, Soviet Union, liberalism, realism.
Since 2001, a preponderence of terrorist activity in Europe, North America and Australia, has involved radicalized Westerners inspired by al Qaeda and during the last couple of years, by ISIS. Described as homegrown terrorism, perpertrators are citizens and residents born, raised and educated within the countries they attack. Transformative learning theory suggests that sustained behavoiural change can occur when critical reflection and the development of novel personal belief systems are provoked by specific triggering factors. In applying this theory to homegrown terrorism, this study helps explain how formerly non-violent individuals come to condone, legitimize and participate in violent behavoiur.
Keywords: homegrown terrorism, radicalization, transforming learning theory, identity, Islamism.
The research herein provides a brief frame of reference for understanding the cycles of violence in Syria, with particular emphasis on the current regime of Bashar al-Assad and on the sectarian and political divisions throughout the Syrian population.
Russian intervention in Syria and the motives behind it will also be analyzed, along with the solutions proposed by the international community and its decision-makers under the Geneva Conventions, Munich Security Conference, and Vienna peace talks for Syria. Using the latest events and debates regarding Syria as a framework, this article emphasizes the diplomatic efforts of foreign powers to reach a consensus for a proper course of action that will put an end to the conflict and its ongoing, disastrous consequences.
The research herein provides a brief frame of reference for understanding the cycles of violence in Syria, with particular emphasis on the current regime of Bashar al-Assad and on the sectarian and political divisions throughout the Syrian population.