This study aims to analyze the impact of slowing economic growth in China and devaluation of the ... more This study aims to analyze the impact of slowing economic growth in China and devaluation of the yuan on the performance of agricultural trade Indonesia. The research used a simultaneous equations model and estimated using the 2-SLS method. The results showed that the trade cooperation Indonesia -China has a positive impact on increasing production, price, investment, consumption, exports, imports, and Indonesia's national income post-CAFTA takes effect over the previous period. China's economic growth led to increased China's exports to Indonesia, but the increase Indonesia's exports to China relatively constant. At the time of CAFTA takes effect, slowing economic growth in China and devaluation of the yuan is expected negatively impact to the performance of the agricultural sector and trade Indonesia, because of the decline in demand for Chinese imports from Indonesia and it caused Indonesian export to China decreased, except for exports of food products, indicating that China's need for food and raw materials for industry. Indonesia's export performance drop will cause the trade of Indonesia deficit higher and destabilizing the economy of Indonesia. ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan tarif impor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi China terhadap kinerja perdagangan pertanian Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan model persamaan simultan dan diestimasi dengan metode 2-SLS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kerjasama perdagangan Indonesia -China berimplikasi positif terhadap peningkatan produksi, harga, investasi, konsumsi, ekspor, impor, dan pendapatan nasional Indonesia pasca CAFTA berlaku efektif dibanding periode sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi China menyebabkan ekspor China ke Indonesia meningkat, namun peningkatan ekspor Indonesia ke China relatif konstan. Pada saat CAFTA efektif diberlakukan, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dan devaluasi Yuan diprediksi akan berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian dan perdagangan Indonesia, karena adanya penurunan permintaan impor China dari Indonesia dan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke China menurun, kecuali ekspor produk pangan, menunjukkan bahwa China membutuhkan bahan pangan dan bahan baku bagi industrinya. Penurunan kinerja ekspor Indonesia akan menyebabkan defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia semakin tinggi dan menganggu stabilitas perekonomian Indonesia.
This study aims to analyze the impact of slowing economic growth in China and devaluation of the ... more This study aims to analyze the impact of slowing economic growth in China and devaluation of the yuan on the performance of agricultural trade Indonesia. The research used a simultaneous equations model and estimated using the 2-SLS method. The results showed that the trade cooperation Indonesia -China has a positive impact on increasing production, price, investment, consumption, exports, imports, and Indonesia's national income post-CAFTA takes effect over the previous period. China's economic growth led to increased China's exports to Indonesia, but the increase Indonesia's exports to China relatively constant. At the time of CAFTA takes effect, slowing economic growth in China and devaluation of the yuan is expected negatively impact to the performance of the agricultural sector and trade Indonesia, because of the decline in demand for Chinese imports from Indonesia and it caused Indonesian export to China decreased, except for exports of food products, indicating that China's need for food and raw materials for industry. Indonesia's export performance drop will cause the trade of Indonesia deficit higher and destabilizing the economy of Indonesia. ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan tarif impor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi China terhadap kinerja perdagangan pertanian Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan model persamaan simultan dan diestimasi dengan metode 2-SLS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kerjasama perdagangan Indonesia -China berimplikasi positif terhadap peningkatan produksi, harga, investasi, konsumsi, ekspor, impor, dan pendapatan nasional Indonesia pasca CAFTA berlaku efektif dibanding periode sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi China menyebabkan ekspor China ke Indonesia meningkat, namun peningkatan ekspor Indonesia ke China relatif konstan. Pada saat CAFTA efektif diberlakukan, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dan devaluasi Yuan diprediksi akan berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian dan perdagangan Indonesia, karena adanya penurunan permintaan impor China dari Indonesia dan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke China menurun, kecuali ekspor produk pangan, menunjukkan bahwa China membutuhkan bahan pangan dan bahan baku bagi industrinya. Penurunan kinerja ekspor Indonesia akan menyebabkan defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia semakin tinggi dan menganggu stabilitas perekonomian Indonesia.
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