By Falilou Fall and Paul Cahu OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the offi... more By Falilou Fall and Paul Cahu OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).
Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world where the demographic transition is not about ... more Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world where the demographic transition is not about to be completed. Though mortality has declined since the 1960s, fertility remains very high. We examine the role played by the common practice of polygyny in sustaining a high level of fertility in this region. We find that polygyny has opposite effects on individual and aggregate fertility. A woman married to a polygynous man tends to have fewer children than if she is the only wife. However, the practice of polygyny increases the number of marriages, resulting in higher aggregate fertility. Furthermore, fertility is contagious, whereby a woman, regardless of whether she is married to a monogamous or a polygynous man, tends to produce more children as fertility level in her neighborhood, proxied by polygyny prevalence, increases. We estimate these distinct effects using household data. These estimates further allow us to simulate the impact of polygyny on total fertility in sub-Saharan ...
The paper presents empirical evidence of AIDS epidemic e¤ects on demography variables and accumul... more The paper presents empirical evidence of AIDS epidemic e¤ects on demography variables and accumulable factors. Using a panel of 47 Sub-Saharan African countries, we show that AIDS has negative and signi cant e¤ect on life expectancy and fertility rate. Thus, a one percent increase in AIDS prevalence rate leads to a decrease of one month every year of the life expectancy in average. We also show that AIDS has a negative e¤ect on investment rate, capital intensity and primary and secondary enrollment rate. However, we cannot nd a global e¤ect of AIDS on GDP per capita. This outline the di¤erence between the short run and direct e¤ect of AIDS and the long run indirect e¤ect of the epidemic. Then, we propose a model that exhibits the poverty trap property the epidemic have. Our model is an OLG economy which highlight the e¤ect of AIDS related health expenditures on life expectancy. Key words : health, AIDS epidemic, human capital, growth, inequalities, JEL Classi cation : ... 1Authors ...
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Documents De Travail Du Centre D Economie De La Sorbonne, Sep 1, 2014
We propose a simple model of a mating economy in both monogamous and polygynous cultures, and der... more We propose a simple model of a mating economy in both monogamous and polygynous cultures, and derive implications for how polygyny a¤ects individual and aggregate fertility. We …nd that an attractive woman is more likely to …nd a high-status husband. However, when polygyny is allowed, high-status husbands naturally attract other women; this implies that female beauty increases the likelihood of entering into a polygynous relationship. A woman in a polygynous relationship produces fewer children than a woman in a monogamous relationship as long as the preference for reproduction relative to consumption is not too strong. However, the societal practice of polygyny increases aggregate fertility through two distinct channels: (1) by increasing the number of marriages; and (2) by triggering fertility contagion: a woman, whether involved in a monogamous or polygynous relationship, produces more children as polygyny becomes more prevalent in her neighborhood. We empirically validate each of the model's key predictions.
In this paper, we, …rst, perform a quantitative assessment of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic... more In this paper, we, …rst, perform a quantitative assessment of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on growth. Second, we precisely account for the e¤ects of the epidemic on income per capita through human and physical capital accumulations, population and labor force. That is, we disentangle the e¤ect on the di¤erent sources of short and long run growth. Using a dynamic panel of 46 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1981-2007, we show that HIV/AIDS has negative, signi…cant and long-lasting e¤ects on demography and growth. According to the estimates presented, GDP per working age population will be 12% lower in the longrun for the average African country than it should be if the epidemic had not spread out. However, the impact is huge for the countries experiencing a high prevalence rate. To tackle the endogeneity issue of HIV/AIDS, we provide a new series of HIV prevalence rate build from the estimation of the propagation dynamic of the epidemic.
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Developmen... more This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Developmen... more This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Cahu Paul. Surplus distribuable et partage de la valeur ajoutée en France. In: Économie & pré... more Cahu Paul. Surplus distribuable et partage de la valeur ajoutée en France. In: Économie & prévision, n°190-191, 2009-4-5. pp. 179-185
This paper analyzes the economic impact of the French 2008 research tax credit reform (crédit d?i... more This paper analyzes the economic impact of the French 2008 research tax credit reform (crédit d?impôt recherche). The reform is expected to have large effects on private investment in R&D, economic activity and firms? demand for researchers. The macro-economic effects of the reform are evaluated looking to 2020 and compared to the benchmark case where no reform is initiated. Depending
La question du financement de l'education est generalement envisagee sous l'angle du &quo... more La question du financement de l'education est generalement envisagee sous l'angle du "combien". Les sciences economiques ont ete beaucoup mises a contribution pour juger de l'importance de l'education, que ce soit dans une optique de developpement ou de croissance dans les pays les plus developpes. Combien rapporte l'education? A l'individu, a la societe. L'education favorise-t-elle la croissance? Quels sont les facteurs sur lesquels l'education est susceptible d'influer? La complexite des reponses a considerablement stimule les recherches dans ce domaine, au point peut-etre d'occulter un tant soit peu la question du " Comment". L'education est par nature sources de nombreuses externalites. Au coeur du processus d'accumulation des connaissances, elle interagit et influe sur tellement de facteurs que" Plus d'education" a ete le credo des institutions internationales depuis la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale, tant pour les pays developpes que ceux en voie de developpement. Neanmoins, s'il ne fait aucun doute que le capital humain reste un facteur essentiel de la croissance economique, tant le succes limite des politiques publiques d'education, notamment en Afrique que l'absence apparente de lien entre l'education' et la croissance dans les pays de l'OCDE ont conduit a relativiser le lien de causalite entre education et croissance. Cette these se propose de ,rebondir sur ce constat en partant du principe que le financement - et plus generalement la qualite - de l'education ne peuvent etre determines independamment du contexte social et economique. Si la qualite de l'education depend du comportement des agents, un planificateur soucieux d'accroitre le capital humain d'une economie doit prendre en compte ce caractere endogene du financement de l'education.
By Falilou Fall and Paul Cahu OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the offi... more By Falilou Fall and Paul Cahu OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).
Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world where the demographic transition is not about ... more Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world where the demographic transition is not about to be completed. Though mortality has declined since the 1960s, fertility remains very high. We examine the role played by the common practice of polygyny in sustaining a high level of fertility in this region. We find that polygyny has opposite effects on individual and aggregate fertility. A woman married to a polygynous man tends to have fewer children than if she is the only wife. However, the practice of polygyny increases the number of marriages, resulting in higher aggregate fertility. Furthermore, fertility is contagious, whereby a woman, regardless of whether she is married to a monogamous or a polygynous man, tends to produce more children as fertility level in her neighborhood, proxied by polygyny prevalence, increases. We estimate these distinct effects using household data. These estimates further allow us to simulate the impact of polygyny on total fertility in sub-Saharan ...
The paper presents empirical evidence of AIDS epidemic e¤ects on demography variables and accumul... more The paper presents empirical evidence of AIDS epidemic e¤ects on demography variables and accumulable factors. Using a panel of 47 Sub-Saharan African countries, we show that AIDS has negative and signi cant e¤ect on life expectancy and fertility rate. Thus, a one percent increase in AIDS prevalence rate leads to a decrease of one month every year of the life expectancy in average. We also show that AIDS has a negative e¤ect on investment rate, capital intensity and primary and secondary enrollment rate. However, we cannot nd a global e¤ect of AIDS on GDP per capita. This outline the di¤erence between the short run and direct e¤ect of AIDS and the long run indirect e¤ect of the epidemic. Then, we propose a model that exhibits the poverty trap property the epidemic have. Our model is an OLG economy which highlight the e¤ect of AIDS related health expenditures on life expectancy. Key words : health, AIDS epidemic, human capital, growth, inequalities, JEL Classi cation : ... 1Authors ...
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Documents De Travail Du Centre D Economie De La Sorbonne, Sep 1, 2014
We propose a simple model of a mating economy in both monogamous and polygynous cultures, and der... more We propose a simple model of a mating economy in both monogamous and polygynous cultures, and derive implications for how polygyny a¤ects individual and aggregate fertility. We …nd that an attractive woman is more likely to …nd a high-status husband. However, when polygyny is allowed, high-status husbands naturally attract other women; this implies that female beauty increases the likelihood of entering into a polygynous relationship. A woman in a polygynous relationship produces fewer children than a woman in a monogamous relationship as long as the preference for reproduction relative to consumption is not too strong. However, the societal practice of polygyny increases aggregate fertility through two distinct channels: (1) by increasing the number of marriages; and (2) by triggering fertility contagion: a woman, whether involved in a monogamous or polygynous relationship, produces more children as polygyny becomes more prevalent in her neighborhood. We empirically validate each of the model's key predictions.
In this paper, we, …rst, perform a quantitative assessment of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic... more In this paper, we, …rst, perform a quantitative assessment of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on growth. Second, we precisely account for the e¤ects of the epidemic on income per capita through human and physical capital accumulations, population and labor force. That is, we disentangle the e¤ect on the di¤erent sources of short and long run growth. Using a dynamic panel of 46 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1981-2007, we show that HIV/AIDS has negative, signi…cant and long-lasting e¤ects on demography and growth. According to the estimates presented, GDP per working age population will be 12% lower in the longrun for the average African country than it should be if the epidemic had not spread out. However, the impact is huge for the countries experiencing a high prevalence rate. To tackle the endogeneity issue of HIV/AIDS, we provide a new series of HIV prevalence rate build from the estimation of the propagation dynamic of the epidemic.
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Developmen... more This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Developmen... more This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Cahu Paul. Surplus distribuable et partage de la valeur ajoutée en France. In: Économie & pré... more Cahu Paul. Surplus distribuable et partage de la valeur ajoutée en France. In: Économie & prévision, n°190-191, 2009-4-5. pp. 179-185
This paper analyzes the economic impact of the French 2008 research tax credit reform (crédit d?i... more This paper analyzes the economic impact of the French 2008 research tax credit reform (crédit d?impôt recherche). The reform is expected to have large effects on private investment in R&D, economic activity and firms? demand for researchers. The macro-economic effects of the reform are evaluated looking to 2020 and compared to the benchmark case where no reform is initiated. Depending
La question du financement de l'education est generalement envisagee sous l'angle du &quo... more La question du financement de l'education est generalement envisagee sous l'angle du "combien". Les sciences economiques ont ete beaucoup mises a contribution pour juger de l'importance de l'education, que ce soit dans une optique de developpement ou de croissance dans les pays les plus developpes. Combien rapporte l'education? A l'individu, a la societe. L'education favorise-t-elle la croissance? Quels sont les facteurs sur lesquels l'education est susceptible d'influer? La complexite des reponses a considerablement stimule les recherches dans ce domaine, au point peut-etre d'occulter un tant soit peu la question du " Comment". L'education est par nature sources de nombreuses externalites. Au coeur du processus d'accumulation des connaissances, elle interagit et influe sur tellement de facteurs que" Plus d'education" a ete le credo des institutions internationales depuis la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale, tant pour les pays developpes que ceux en voie de developpement. Neanmoins, s'il ne fait aucun doute que le capital humain reste un facteur essentiel de la croissance economique, tant le succes limite des politiques publiques d'education, notamment en Afrique que l'absence apparente de lien entre l'education' et la croissance dans les pays de l'OCDE ont conduit a relativiser le lien de causalite entre education et croissance. Cette these se propose de ,rebondir sur ce constat en partant du principe que le financement - et plus generalement la qualite - de l'education ne peuvent etre determines independamment du contexte social et economique. Si la qualite de l'education depend du comportement des agents, un planificateur soucieux d'accroitre le capital humain d'une economie doit prendre en compte ce caractere endogene du financement de l'education.
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