This study analyzes the needs and preferences of firms in the first-job market. To this end, an a... more This study analyzes the needs and preferences of firms in the first-job market. To this end, an application to the case of commercial engineers in Chile is considered by means of a conjoint study. Partial utilities of the firms associated to different levels of attributes of the ...
En este trabajo se analiza la audiencia leal y la herencia que reciben los programas de noticias ... more En este trabajo se analiza la audiencia leal y la herencia que reciben los programas de noticias de la televisión chilena. El estudio considera datos del sistema People Meter para medir la audiencia leal de distintos canales, y el porcentaje de esa audiencia leal que es heredada del programa de previo; tanto a nivel global como para distintos grupos socio-demográficos.Los resultados del análisis muestran fuertes diferencias en la audiencia leal en distintos canales y en distintos grupos sociodemográficos.El trabajo constituye un aporte, no sólo por los resultados en la muestra específica, sino también por la metodología que se propone y que se puede replicar en otro momento del tiempoo en otro horario.
Student evaluation of teaching (SET) is applied in the vast majority of universities and higher e... more Student evaluation of teaching (SET) is applied in the vast majority of universities and higher education institutions. They are used to design professor training programs, evaluate teaching perfor...
Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countri... more Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countries, generating controversy between the need to establish quarantines and other social distancing measures to protect people’s health and the need to reactivate the economy. This study proposes and applies a modification of the SIR infection model to describe the evolution of coronavirus infections and to measure the effect of quarantine on the number of people infected. Methods: Two hypotheses, not necessarily mutually exclusive, are proposed for the impact of quarantines. According to the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate, delaying new infections over time without modifying the total number of people infected at the end of the wave. The second hypothesis establishes that quarantine reduces the population infected in the wave. The two hypotheses are tested with data for a sample of 10 districts in Santiago, Chile. Results: The results of applying the methodology sho...
This paper studies the daily stock price reaction to new information of portfolios grouped by siz... more This paper studies the daily stock price reaction to new information of portfolios grouped by size quintiles. To that end, cross-correlations, autocorrelations and Dimson beta regressions are analyzed. Based on a sample of shares traded in the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange for the 1991-1998 period, results show that larger company stock prices-as measured by market capitalization-react to both good and bad news sooner than the smaller ones do. Thus a crossed effect appears, although not as a cascade: only the prices of large firms react earlier than the rest. These effects do not seem to be caused by nontrading. There also are significant asymmetric lagged and cross-effects. Good news has a more pronounced lagged effect than bad news does.
Heinrich's pyramid, which postulates that the severity distribution of occupational accidents is ... more Heinrich's pyramid, which postulates that the severity distribution of occupational accidents is relatively constant, is one of the main tools for management of occupational safety. However, existing evidence suggests that decreases in minor accidents have not always been followed by similar decreases in serious and fatal accidents. To test the statistical validity of the pyramid, we propose a Bayesian two-part model: the first part estimates accident rates using a Poisson-gamma distribution, and the second part estimates the proportion of minor, serious and fatal accidents using a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution. If this proportion does not change when the accident rate is reduced, then the statistical validity of the pyramid is confirmed, but if it changes, then its validity is refuted. Our data cover more than 50,000 companies observed over 28 months in Chile. Heinrich's pyramid is confirmed to be statistically invalid for different economic activity sectors and geographic regions, but the discrepancy is so small that, for practical purposes, the pyramid is valid. We thus conclude that the occurrence of minor accidents is a useful signal for assessing and forecasting the overall safety performance of a firm.
In an influential study, Schmittlein et al. (1987) proposed the pareto/negative binomial distribu... more In an influential study, Schmittlein et al. (1987) proposed the pareto/negative binomial distribution (P/NBD) model to predict purchase behavior of customers. Despite its recognized relevance, this model has some drawbacks as follows: (1) it does not allow a zero transaction rate, (2) it assumes convenient but not necessarily realistic gamma distributions for the transaction and drop-out rates across customers, and (3) the estimation procedure requires complicated computations. The purpose of this study is to relax the assumption that purchases and drop-out rates are distributed according to a gamma distribution and propose a simple estimation procedure for the individual parameters that can be applied even if the number of customers is large. A simulation exercise and empirical applications to real datasets compare the simple model proposed with the P/NBD model. The results show that the simple procedure is better in cases where the number of transactions and/or the observation period is large.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2002
We present a unified approach to conjoint analysis models using a Bayesian framework. One data so... more We present a unified approach to conjoint analysis models using a Bayesian framework. One data source is used to form a prior distribution for the partworths, whereas full-profile evaluations under a rating scale, ranking, discrete choice, or constant-sum scale constitute the ...
Market segmentation is accepted as a fundamental concept in marketing and several authors have re... more Market segmentation is accepted as a fundamental concept in marketing and several authors have recently proposed a segmentation model where personal and environmental variables intersect with each other to form motivating conditions that drive behavior and preferences. This model of segmentation has been applied to packaged goods. This paper extends this literature by proposing a segmentation model for low-penetration and low involvement (LP-LI) products. An application to the lottery games in Chile supports the proposed model. The results of the study show that in this type of products (LP-LI), the attitude towards the product category is the most important factor that distinguishes consumers from non consumers, and heavy users from light users, and consequently, a critical segmentation variable. In addition, a cluster analysis shows the existence of three segments: (1) the impulsive dreamers, who believe in chance, and in that lottery games can change their life, (2) the skeptical, that do not believe in chance, nor in that lottery games can change their life and (3) the willing, who value the benefits of playing.
... The Authors. Rodrigo Guesalaga, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. Pa... more ... The Authors. Rodrigo Guesalaga, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. PabloMarshall, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. Acknowledgements. This paper was partially supported by project FONDECYT 1085262. Abstract. ...
PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) proposition, whe... more PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) proposition, where private companies can both be profitable and help alleviate poverty by attending low‐income consumers.Design/methodology/approachThe literature on BOP was reviewed and some key elements of the BOP approach were proposed and examined.FindingsThere is no agreement in the literature about the potential benefits of the BOP approach for both private companies and low‐income consumers. However, further research on characterizing the BOP segment and finding the appropriate business model for attending the BOP can provide some answers to this issue.Practical implicationsThe article provides some guidelines to managers as to how they need to adapt their marketing strategies to sell to the BOP market, and what type of partnerships they need to build in order to succeed.Originality/valueThe article presents a thorough analysis of the key elements involved in the BOP initiative: companies' mo...
The main objective of this paper is to develop a system that uses historical data to forecast new... more The main objective of this paper is to develop a system that uses historical data to forecast new movie attendance. In contrast to most models in the literature that consider aggregated prediction or the demand for a cross-section of movies, this paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of attendance at the movie level. The paper considers two alternative models for the weekly adoption or consumption of newly released movies. The Bass (1969) explains adoption through innovation and imitation effects. The Sawhney and Eliashberg (1996) model characterizes the adoption process through time-to-decide and time-to-act effects. The basis of the paper's results is a sample of 117 movies exhibited in Chile between 2001 and 2003. The two models present very similar results. For the Bass model, the innovation effect is greater than the imitation effect; but, in Sawhney and Eliashberg's model, the time-to-act is more significant than the time-to-decide. The sample prediction errors of these models present values between 2.7% and 17.1%, depending on the prediction horizon and the amount of historical data available.
Abstract." This paper considers a dynamic extension of the classical error components mo... more Abstract." This paper considers a dynamic extension of the classical error components model based on the ideas of structural time series models. The study concentrates on the mean square error estima-tion of time-dependent means by using the Kalman filter, and on the relative ...
Page 1. Applied Economics, 1991, 23, 1077-1086 Inter-fuel substitution, technical change and the ... more Page 1. Applied Economics, 1991, 23, 1077-1086 Inter-fuel substitution, technical change and the demand for energy in the UK economy ANDREW C . HARVEY*and PABLO MARSHALLt *London School of Economics Houghton ...
The Internet has changed the way companies and persons communicate. This paper considers the diff... more The Internet has changed the way companies and persons communicate. This paper considers the diffusion of Internet in Chile. Using traditional methods in marketing, particularly the Bass model, the potential number of Internet users and the characteristics of the diffusion ...
Este Documento es producto del trabajo de Académicos del Departamento de AdministraciónEl proposi... more Este Documento es producto del trabajo de Académicos del Departamento de AdministraciónEl proposito de este trabajo es presentar las metodologias de indices nacionales de satisfaccion desarrollados en varios paises
This study considers different methodologies for times series prediction of Sales. Given the spec... more This study considers different methodologies for times series prediction of Sales. Given the specification of a bivariate autoregressive time series model for Sales and GDP, the paper derives classical models of prediction, such as a regression model, a regression model with error ...
Cuadernos de Economía, Año 23, № 68, pp. 101417 (Abril 1986) PREDICCIÓN DE INFLACIÓN CON MODELOS ... more Cuadernos de Economía, Año 23, № 68, pp. 101417 (Abril 1986) PREDICCIÓN DE INFLACIÓN CON MODELOS DE SERIES DE TIEMPO MULTIPLES* Pablo Marshall R.** ABSTRACT This paper presents a dynamic econometric mode! for monthly inflation rates in Chile from ...
This study analyzes the needs and preferences of firms in the first-job market. To this end, an a... more This study analyzes the needs and preferences of firms in the first-job market. To this end, an application to the case of commercial engineers in Chile is considered by means of a conjoint study. Partial utilities of the firms associated to different levels of attributes of the ...
En este trabajo se analiza la audiencia leal y la herencia que reciben los programas de noticias ... more En este trabajo se analiza la audiencia leal y la herencia que reciben los programas de noticias de la televisión chilena. El estudio considera datos del sistema People Meter para medir la audiencia leal de distintos canales, y el porcentaje de esa audiencia leal que es heredada del programa de previo; tanto a nivel global como para distintos grupos socio-demográficos.Los resultados del análisis muestran fuertes diferencias en la audiencia leal en distintos canales y en distintos grupos sociodemográficos.El trabajo constituye un aporte, no sólo por los resultados en la muestra específica, sino también por la metodología que se propone y que se puede replicar en otro momento del tiempoo en otro horario.
Student evaluation of teaching (SET) is applied in the vast majority of universities and higher e... more Student evaluation of teaching (SET) is applied in the vast majority of universities and higher education institutions. They are used to design professor training programs, evaluate teaching perfor...
Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countri... more Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countries, generating controversy between the need to establish quarantines and other social distancing measures to protect people’s health and the need to reactivate the economy. This study proposes and applies a modification of the SIR infection model to describe the evolution of coronavirus infections and to measure the effect of quarantine on the number of people infected. Methods: Two hypotheses, not necessarily mutually exclusive, are proposed for the impact of quarantines. According to the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate, delaying new infections over time without modifying the total number of people infected at the end of the wave. The second hypothesis establishes that quarantine reduces the population infected in the wave. The two hypotheses are tested with data for a sample of 10 districts in Santiago, Chile. Results: The results of applying the methodology sho...
This paper studies the daily stock price reaction to new information of portfolios grouped by siz... more This paper studies the daily stock price reaction to new information of portfolios grouped by size quintiles. To that end, cross-correlations, autocorrelations and Dimson beta regressions are analyzed. Based on a sample of shares traded in the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange for the 1991-1998 period, results show that larger company stock prices-as measured by market capitalization-react to both good and bad news sooner than the smaller ones do. Thus a crossed effect appears, although not as a cascade: only the prices of large firms react earlier than the rest. These effects do not seem to be caused by nontrading. There also are significant asymmetric lagged and cross-effects. Good news has a more pronounced lagged effect than bad news does.
Heinrich's pyramid, which postulates that the severity distribution of occupational accidents is ... more Heinrich's pyramid, which postulates that the severity distribution of occupational accidents is relatively constant, is one of the main tools for management of occupational safety. However, existing evidence suggests that decreases in minor accidents have not always been followed by similar decreases in serious and fatal accidents. To test the statistical validity of the pyramid, we propose a Bayesian two-part model: the first part estimates accident rates using a Poisson-gamma distribution, and the second part estimates the proportion of minor, serious and fatal accidents using a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution. If this proportion does not change when the accident rate is reduced, then the statistical validity of the pyramid is confirmed, but if it changes, then its validity is refuted. Our data cover more than 50,000 companies observed over 28 months in Chile. Heinrich's pyramid is confirmed to be statistically invalid for different economic activity sectors and geographic regions, but the discrepancy is so small that, for practical purposes, the pyramid is valid. We thus conclude that the occurrence of minor accidents is a useful signal for assessing and forecasting the overall safety performance of a firm.
In an influential study, Schmittlein et al. (1987) proposed the pareto/negative binomial distribu... more In an influential study, Schmittlein et al. (1987) proposed the pareto/negative binomial distribution (P/NBD) model to predict purchase behavior of customers. Despite its recognized relevance, this model has some drawbacks as follows: (1) it does not allow a zero transaction rate, (2) it assumes convenient but not necessarily realistic gamma distributions for the transaction and drop-out rates across customers, and (3) the estimation procedure requires complicated computations. The purpose of this study is to relax the assumption that purchases and drop-out rates are distributed according to a gamma distribution and propose a simple estimation procedure for the individual parameters that can be applied even if the number of customers is large. A simulation exercise and empirical applications to real datasets compare the simple model proposed with the P/NBD model. The results show that the simple procedure is better in cases where the number of transactions and/or the observation period is large.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2002
We present a unified approach to conjoint analysis models using a Bayesian framework. One data so... more We present a unified approach to conjoint analysis models using a Bayesian framework. One data source is used to form a prior distribution for the partworths, whereas full-profile evaluations under a rating scale, ranking, discrete choice, or constant-sum scale constitute the ...
Market segmentation is accepted as a fundamental concept in marketing and several authors have re... more Market segmentation is accepted as a fundamental concept in marketing and several authors have recently proposed a segmentation model where personal and environmental variables intersect with each other to form motivating conditions that drive behavior and preferences. This model of segmentation has been applied to packaged goods. This paper extends this literature by proposing a segmentation model for low-penetration and low involvement (LP-LI) products. An application to the lottery games in Chile supports the proposed model. The results of the study show that in this type of products (LP-LI), the attitude towards the product category is the most important factor that distinguishes consumers from non consumers, and heavy users from light users, and consequently, a critical segmentation variable. In addition, a cluster analysis shows the existence of three segments: (1) the impulsive dreamers, who believe in chance, and in that lottery games can change their life, (2) the skeptical, that do not believe in chance, nor in that lottery games can change their life and (3) the willing, who value the benefits of playing.
... The Authors. Rodrigo Guesalaga, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. Pa... more ... The Authors. Rodrigo Guesalaga, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. PabloMarshall, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. Acknowledgements. This paper was partially supported by project FONDECYT 1085262. Abstract. ...
PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) proposition, whe... more PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) proposition, where private companies can both be profitable and help alleviate poverty by attending low‐income consumers.Design/methodology/approachThe literature on BOP was reviewed and some key elements of the BOP approach were proposed and examined.FindingsThere is no agreement in the literature about the potential benefits of the BOP approach for both private companies and low‐income consumers. However, further research on characterizing the BOP segment and finding the appropriate business model for attending the BOP can provide some answers to this issue.Practical implicationsThe article provides some guidelines to managers as to how they need to adapt their marketing strategies to sell to the BOP market, and what type of partnerships they need to build in order to succeed.Originality/valueThe article presents a thorough analysis of the key elements involved in the BOP initiative: companies' mo...
The main objective of this paper is to develop a system that uses historical data to forecast new... more The main objective of this paper is to develop a system that uses historical data to forecast new movie attendance. In contrast to most models in the literature that consider aggregated prediction or the demand for a cross-section of movies, this paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of attendance at the movie level. The paper considers two alternative models for the weekly adoption or consumption of newly released movies. The Bass (1969) explains adoption through innovation and imitation effects. The Sawhney and Eliashberg (1996) model characterizes the adoption process through time-to-decide and time-to-act effects. The basis of the paper's results is a sample of 117 movies exhibited in Chile between 2001 and 2003. The two models present very similar results. For the Bass model, the innovation effect is greater than the imitation effect; but, in Sawhney and Eliashberg's model, the time-to-act is more significant than the time-to-decide. The sample prediction errors of these models present values between 2.7% and 17.1%, depending on the prediction horizon and the amount of historical data available.
Abstract." This paper considers a dynamic extension of the classical error components mo... more Abstract." This paper considers a dynamic extension of the classical error components model based on the ideas of structural time series models. The study concentrates on the mean square error estima-tion of time-dependent means by using the Kalman filter, and on the relative ...
Page 1. Applied Economics, 1991, 23, 1077-1086 Inter-fuel substitution, technical change and the ... more Page 1. Applied Economics, 1991, 23, 1077-1086 Inter-fuel substitution, technical change and the demand for energy in the UK economy ANDREW C . HARVEY*and PABLO MARSHALLt *London School of Economics Houghton ...
The Internet has changed the way companies and persons communicate. This paper considers the diff... more The Internet has changed the way companies and persons communicate. This paper considers the diffusion of Internet in Chile. Using traditional methods in marketing, particularly the Bass model, the potential number of Internet users and the characteristics of the diffusion ...
Este Documento es producto del trabajo de Académicos del Departamento de AdministraciónEl proposi... more Este Documento es producto del trabajo de Académicos del Departamento de AdministraciónEl proposito de este trabajo es presentar las metodologias de indices nacionales de satisfaccion desarrollados en varios paises
This study considers different methodologies for times series prediction of Sales. Given the spec... more This study considers different methodologies for times series prediction of Sales. Given the specification of a bivariate autoregressive time series model for Sales and GDP, the paper derives classical models of prediction, such as a regression model, a regression model with error ...
Cuadernos de Economía, Año 23, № 68, pp. 101417 (Abril 1986) PREDICCIÓN DE INFLACIÓN CON MODELOS ... more Cuadernos de Economía, Año 23, № 68, pp. 101417 (Abril 1986) PREDICCIÓN DE INFLACIÓN CON MODELOS DE SERIES DE TIEMPO MULTIPLES* Pablo Marshall R.** ABSTRACT This paper presents a dynamic econometric mode! for monthly inflation rates in Chile from ...
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