This paper is concerned with measuring categories of employment that have an economy-wide meaning... more This paper is concerned with measuring categories of employment that have an economy-wide meaning in the developing world. Employment has always had two interconnected sides, output and income, and these two dimensions of employment operate under very different conditions in advanced and developing economies. A developing economy is divided into two parts, organised and unorganised in respect of labour. A large amount of surplus labour exists in the unorganised part creating underemployment that manifests itself in a range of forms of employed labour. In this situation the headcount of the employed overestimates economy-wide employment; and the headcount of the unemployed seriously underestimates economy-wide unemployment.
Amit Bhaduri, The Economic Structure of Backward Agriculture, London: Academic Press, 1983. Pp. x... more Amit Bhaduri, The Economic Structure of Backward Agriculture, London: Academic Press, 1983. Pp. xi+151. £19.50.Certain methodological issues relating to the central propositions and the form of explanation implicit in Amit Bhaduri's book, The Economic Structure of Backward Agriculture are identified and discussed. Bharduri's emphasis upon the relations of production relative to the forces of production in describing the economic structure
Dans les societes avancees dotees de systemes d'assurance sociale, le «taux de chomage» rend ... more Dans les societes avancees dotees de systemes d'assurance sociale, le «taux de chomage» rend bien compte des problemes d'emploi. Dans les pays pauvres, depourvus d'assurance sociale, beaucoup de personnes sont dans l'obligation de travailler pour survivre et subvenir aux besoins de leurs familles, tandis que les «chomeurs» peuvent survivre tout en cherchant un emploi. Cela explique que le taux de chomage y est faible alors que celui de la pauvrete est eleve. L'auteur propose une methodologie pour estimer le nombre de travailleurs pauvres - ceux qui travaillent et appartiennent a des menages pauvres. Il constate que la population des travailleurs pauvres a diminue dans bien des pays a revenu moyen entre 1986 et 1997, mais que dans les pays a faible revenu on enregistre aussi bien des diminutions que des augmentations de cette categorie de population
2 Essentially relationships established from reduced-form regression equations with crosscountry ... more 2 Essentially relationships established from reduced-form regression equations with crosscountry data cannot say very much either about causality between variables, or about what that relationship means at the level of particular policy instruments. 3 The question of the manner in which components of decent work are consistent with the idea of a "decent life" is a separate issue. 4 See Gerry Rodgers, (2000), "Decent work as a development objective". Lecture to the 42 nd Annual Meeting of the
The paper charts the process through which employment has been transformed in China. Measures of ... more The paper charts the process through which employment has been transformed in China. Measures of employment quality captured by estimates of regular and non-regular employment and unemployment are used to form a view of the changing employment situation. The increase in the share of regular employment in total employment, from 40.1% in 1990 to 62.7% in 2011, is staggering for the most populous country in the world. This is what lies behind the improvement in employment in China. This paper argues that factors behind the improvement in employment in China can be traced to sequenced policy shifts in sector growth strategies on one hand, and the gradual removal of effective constraints on the physical movement of labour on the other. In other words China has managed its process of structural change.
The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practi... more The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.
... de los países en desarrollo Nomaan MAJID* En los países en desarrollo que carecen de una segu... more ... de los países en desarrollo Nomaan MAJID* En los países en desarrollo que carecen de una seguridad social eficaz ... Cada economía es clasificada por su renta baja, media (grupo subdividido en países de renta media alta y de renta media baja) o alta. ...
The primary goal of the ILO is to work with member States towards achieving full and productive e... more The primary goal of the ILO is to work with member States towards achieving full and productive employment and decent work for all. This goal is elaborated in the ILO Declaration 2008 on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization, 1 which has been widely adopted by the international community. Comprehensive and integrated perspectives to achieve this goal are embedded in the Employment Policy Convention of 1964 (No. 122), the Global Employment Agenda (2003) and-in response to the 2008 global economic crisis-the Global Jobs Pact (2009) and the conclusions of the Recurrent Discussion Reports on Employment (2010 and 2014). The Employment Policy Department (EMPLOYMENT) is engaged in global advocacy and in supporting member States in placing more and better jobs at the center of economic and social policies and growth and development strategies. Policy research and knowledge generation and dissemination are essential components of the Employment Policy Department's activities. The resulting publications include books, country policy reviews, policy and research briefs, and working papers. 2 The Employment Policy Working Paper series is designed to disseminate the main findings of research on a broad range of topics undertaken by the branches of the Department. The working papers are intended to encourage the exchange of ideas and to stimulate debate. The views expressed within them are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the ILO.
This paper discusses the problems aassociated with measuring economy wide employment in developin... more This paper discusses the problems aassociated with measuring economy wide employment in developing countries. In doing so, it sets up the outline of a framework in which employment and its dimensions in developing countries ought to be conceived. The paper then goes on to propose a measure of employment that gives relatively acceptable returns to the worker. Based on this measure, the work explores how the incidence of good employment has been associated with economic growth and income inequality in the developing world.
Defines 'working poor' as those who work whilst belonging to poor households. Gives estim... more Defines 'working poor' as those who work whilst belonging to poor households. Gives estimates of the working poor and working poverty rates for the years 1986 and 1997.
This paper attempts to answer three related questions about growth income distribution and povert... more This paper attempts to answer three related questions about growth income distribution and poverty. First, are there any general patterns that can be expected between the categories national income, inequality and poverty for present day developing countries? Second, if there are patterns, are there any systematic differences across low and middle-income country samples (that we can use to signify transitions) in the relationships between national income, distribution and poverty. Third, what is the relationship between social rights and poverty reduction? In answering these questions the paper also uses estimates of poverty that have corrected for the inconsistencies between the world bank data and national income accounts. It is therefore also gives an important applied comparison of two data sets on poverty. It wo uld seem that by and large the NA accounts consistent data produce better results than the World Bank poverty data. The results show that over the long run, not much can be said about the hypothesis that countries increase inequality first and reduce it l ater. However, in the world of present day developing countries it is true that inequalities are lower in low-income countries than in the higher income bracket. It is also argued that long run trend on inequality and growth, if there were one, says little about whether increased inequality facilitates or retards growth in the shorter or medium term. On poverty, while national income and inequality both affect poverty in expected ways, the importance of national income in affecting poverty diminishes and the importance of inequality increases over the development process. This is an important finding. Changes in national income by and large bring about changes in poverty but changes in inequality can alter poverty commensurately only in middle-income countries. This suggests that in general social and institutional conditions that govern the dynamics of distribution across countries at lower levels of income are sufficiently heterogeneous; while in middle-income countries the situation is more dynamically smooth. On the issue of social rights and poverty, it is found that on the WB data there is some evidence of "tradeoffs"; and on NA consistent data, which generally produces better results, there is no independent relationship that comes through between poverty and social rights, once inequality and national income are taken in to account. So we need to be cautious in taking a priori positions about the independent beneficial effects of social rights on poverty reduction in all developing country contexts. As far as mediated effects go, the effect of social rights on national income is a beneficial one in low-income countries. The effect of social rights on inequality is non-beneficial one in middle-income countries. So in net terms we may get the growth effect of social rights dominating low-income countries and the distribution effect of social rights dominating middle-income countries.
The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. I would like to thank Moazam Mahmood ... more The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. I would like to thank Moazam Mahmood and Iyanatul Islam who agreed to read the paper and gave comments. I am also grateful to K.S.Jomo of DESA in New York who gave comments on an earlier draft, and for inviting me to a DESA meeting held in June, 2011at the ILO in Geneve, where some of the issues contained in this paper were discussed. Two former ILO colleagues Ajit Ghose and Eddy Lee, gave invaluable advice and suggestions on an earlier draft. I would also like to thank Piotr Myszkorowski, who ably supported the data cleaning process and statistical work. The usual disclaimer applies. v Foreword This paper examines the association between growth and poverty reduction and argues that is not as strong an empirical relationship as it is generally expected to be in development policy making. It also shows that to expect growth not to have any systematic positive association with income inequality in developing countries is misplaced. It is argued that we ought to expect that, in general, growth is more likely to weakly reduce poverty and a little more strongly increase income inequality. With this more realistic perspective on the associations between economic growth, income inequality and absolute poverty, the paper goes on to examine whether the speed at which developing economies have globalised, has influenced the intensity with which growth impacted poverty and inequality respectively? It is shown that amongst the fastest globalisers, growth on average increased inequality significantly and was not associated with poverty reduction. On the other hand, for developing economies that globalised at a relatively slower pace, growth reduced poverty and was not associated with rising inequality.
This paper examines the employment situation in Indonesia during and in the aftermath of the Asia... more This paper examines the employment situation in Indonesia during and in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Great Recession, including importantly how the quality of work responded to the changing composition of Indonesia’s growth process. The authors find that many labour market indicators have moved in an encouraging direction, but a decomposition of labour productivity indicates that productivity growth has been driven primarily from efficiencies “within” sectors rather than the allocation of labour across sectors. Facilitating and managing the structural transformation process in a fair and inclusive manner can further support Indonesia’s socioeconomic development.
Part 1. The changing forms of employment, unemployment and labour protection regimes in advanced ... more Part 1. The changing forms of employment, unemployment and labour protection regimes in advanced economies ..
The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practi... more The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.
This paper examines the effects of openness on wages in developing countries and developed econom... more This paper examines the effects of openness on wages in developing countries and developed economies separately using the ILO's October Inquiry data for wages. The findings suggest that in developing countries increased openness will not enhance wage rates directly although they may do so via growth, and may even produce (temporary) declines in real wage rates, as well as increase dispersions across wage rates. If openness generates economic growth it could allow some recovery of wages from the initial damage. However, it is quite clear that despite the positive effect of openness on growth, and that of growth on wages, the recovery from initial damage on the wage regime may not quite proceed in to full fledged enhancement of real wages in the developing world. While the explanation for the initial shock on real wages in the developing world may have something to do with sectoral demand shifts and their effects on wages, it may also importantly lie in the effect that increased openness has on inflation in the short run. On the other hand, in the developed world, wage earners in general will gain in the medium run with enhanced trade openness, and wage dispersions in these countries will not increase as a result. It is also likely that the explanation over here for the initial real wage declines due to openness may be more related to demand driven labour market adjustments, since the effect of openness, especially of FDI flows seems to be in lowering and not in increasing consumer prices. In short, the effects of openness on the wage regime are comparatively better in developed economies, even though in developing economies much of their adverseness, though serious, is of a temporary nature.
This paper is concerned with measuring categories of employment that have an economy-wide meaning... more This paper is concerned with measuring categories of employment that have an economy-wide meaning in the developing world. Employment has always had two interconnected sides, output and income, and these two dimensions of employment operate under very different conditions in advanced and developing economies. A developing economy is divided into two parts, organised and unorganised in respect of labour. A large amount of surplus labour exists in the unorganised part creating underemployment that manifests itself in a range of forms of employed labour. In this situation the headcount of the employed overestimates economy-wide employment; and the headcount of the unemployed seriously underestimates economy-wide unemployment.
Amit Bhaduri, The Economic Structure of Backward Agriculture, London: Academic Press, 1983. Pp. x... more Amit Bhaduri, The Economic Structure of Backward Agriculture, London: Academic Press, 1983. Pp. xi+151. £19.50.Certain methodological issues relating to the central propositions and the form of explanation implicit in Amit Bhaduri's book, The Economic Structure of Backward Agriculture are identified and discussed. Bharduri's emphasis upon the relations of production relative to the forces of production in describing the economic structure
Dans les societes avancees dotees de systemes d'assurance sociale, le «taux de chomage» rend ... more Dans les societes avancees dotees de systemes d'assurance sociale, le «taux de chomage» rend bien compte des problemes d'emploi. Dans les pays pauvres, depourvus d'assurance sociale, beaucoup de personnes sont dans l'obligation de travailler pour survivre et subvenir aux besoins de leurs familles, tandis que les «chomeurs» peuvent survivre tout en cherchant un emploi. Cela explique que le taux de chomage y est faible alors que celui de la pauvrete est eleve. L'auteur propose une methodologie pour estimer le nombre de travailleurs pauvres - ceux qui travaillent et appartiennent a des menages pauvres. Il constate que la population des travailleurs pauvres a diminue dans bien des pays a revenu moyen entre 1986 et 1997, mais que dans les pays a faible revenu on enregistre aussi bien des diminutions que des augmentations de cette categorie de population
2 Essentially relationships established from reduced-form regression equations with crosscountry ... more 2 Essentially relationships established from reduced-form regression equations with crosscountry data cannot say very much either about causality between variables, or about what that relationship means at the level of particular policy instruments. 3 The question of the manner in which components of decent work are consistent with the idea of a "decent life" is a separate issue. 4 See Gerry Rodgers, (2000), "Decent work as a development objective". Lecture to the 42 nd Annual Meeting of the
The paper charts the process through which employment has been transformed in China. Measures of ... more The paper charts the process through which employment has been transformed in China. Measures of employment quality captured by estimates of regular and non-regular employment and unemployment are used to form a view of the changing employment situation. The increase in the share of regular employment in total employment, from 40.1% in 1990 to 62.7% in 2011, is staggering for the most populous country in the world. This is what lies behind the improvement in employment in China. This paper argues that factors behind the improvement in employment in China can be traced to sequenced policy shifts in sector growth strategies on one hand, and the gradual removal of effective constraints on the physical movement of labour on the other. In other words China has managed its process of structural change.
The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practi... more The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.
... de los países en desarrollo Nomaan MAJID* En los países en desarrollo que carecen de una segu... more ... de los países en desarrollo Nomaan MAJID* En los países en desarrollo que carecen de una seguridad social eficaz ... Cada economía es clasificada por su renta baja, media (grupo subdividido en países de renta media alta y de renta media baja) o alta. ...
The primary goal of the ILO is to work with member States towards achieving full and productive e... more The primary goal of the ILO is to work with member States towards achieving full and productive employment and decent work for all. This goal is elaborated in the ILO Declaration 2008 on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization, 1 which has been widely adopted by the international community. Comprehensive and integrated perspectives to achieve this goal are embedded in the Employment Policy Convention of 1964 (No. 122), the Global Employment Agenda (2003) and-in response to the 2008 global economic crisis-the Global Jobs Pact (2009) and the conclusions of the Recurrent Discussion Reports on Employment (2010 and 2014). The Employment Policy Department (EMPLOYMENT) is engaged in global advocacy and in supporting member States in placing more and better jobs at the center of economic and social policies and growth and development strategies. Policy research and knowledge generation and dissemination are essential components of the Employment Policy Department's activities. The resulting publications include books, country policy reviews, policy and research briefs, and working papers. 2 The Employment Policy Working Paper series is designed to disseminate the main findings of research on a broad range of topics undertaken by the branches of the Department. The working papers are intended to encourage the exchange of ideas and to stimulate debate. The views expressed within them are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the ILO.
This paper discusses the problems aassociated with measuring economy wide employment in developin... more This paper discusses the problems aassociated with measuring economy wide employment in developing countries. In doing so, it sets up the outline of a framework in which employment and its dimensions in developing countries ought to be conceived. The paper then goes on to propose a measure of employment that gives relatively acceptable returns to the worker. Based on this measure, the work explores how the incidence of good employment has been associated with economic growth and income inequality in the developing world.
Defines 'working poor' as those who work whilst belonging to poor households. Gives estim... more Defines 'working poor' as those who work whilst belonging to poor households. Gives estimates of the working poor and working poverty rates for the years 1986 and 1997.
This paper attempts to answer three related questions about growth income distribution and povert... more This paper attempts to answer three related questions about growth income distribution and poverty. First, are there any general patterns that can be expected between the categories national income, inequality and poverty for present day developing countries? Second, if there are patterns, are there any systematic differences across low and middle-income country samples (that we can use to signify transitions) in the relationships between national income, distribution and poverty. Third, what is the relationship between social rights and poverty reduction? In answering these questions the paper also uses estimates of poverty that have corrected for the inconsistencies between the world bank data and national income accounts. It is therefore also gives an important applied comparison of two data sets on poverty. It wo uld seem that by and large the NA accounts consistent data produce better results than the World Bank poverty data. The results show that over the long run, not much can be said about the hypothesis that countries increase inequality first and reduce it l ater. However, in the world of present day developing countries it is true that inequalities are lower in low-income countries than in the higher income bracket. It is also argued that long run trend on inequality and growth, if there were one, says little about whether increased inequality facilitates or retards growth in the shorter or medium term. On poverty, while national income and inequality both affect poverty in expected ways, the importance of national income in affecting poverty diminishes and the importance of inequality increases over the development process. This is an important finding. Changes in national income by and large bring about changes in poverty but changes in inequality can alter poverty commensurately only in middle-income countries. This suggests that in general social and institutional conditions that govern the dynamics of distribution across countries at lower levels of income are sufficiently heterogeneous; while in middle-income countries the situation is more dynamically smooth. On the issue of social rights and poverty, it is found that on the WB data there is some evidence of "tradeoffs"; and on NA consistent data, which generally produces better results, there is no independent relationship that comes through between poverty and social rights, once inequality and national income are taken in to account. So we need to be cautious in taking a priori positions about the independent beneficial effects of social rights on poverty reduction in all developing country contexts. As far as mediated effects go, the effect of social rights on national income is a beneficial one in low-income countries. The effect of social rights on inequality is non-beneficial one in middle-income countries. So in net terms we may get the growth effect of social rights dominating low-income countries and the distribution effect of social rights dominating middle-income countries.
The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. I would like to thank Moazam Mahmood ... more The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. I would like to thank Moazam Mahmood and Iyanatul Islam who agreed to read the paper and gave comments. I am also grateful to K.S.Jomo of DESA in New York who gave comments on an earlier draft, and for inviting me to a DESA meeting held in June, 2011at the ILO in Geneve, where some of the issues contained in this paper were discussed. Two former ILO colleagues Ajit Ghose and Eddy Lee, gave invaluable advice and suggestions on an earlier draft. I would also like to thank Piotr Myszkorowski, who ably supported the data cleaning process and statistical work. The usual disclaimer applies. v Foreword This paper examines the association between growth and poverty reduction and argues that is not as strong an empirical relationship as it is generally expected to be in development policy making. It also shows that to expect growth not to have any systematic positive association with income inequality in developing countries is misplaced. It is argued that we ought to expect that, in general, growth is more likely to weakly reduce poverty and a little more strongly increase income inequality. With this more realistic perspective on the associations between economic growth, income inequality and absolute poverty, the paper goes on to examine whether the speed at which developing economies have globalised, has influenced the intensity with which growth impacted poverty and inequality respectively? It is shown that amongst the fastest globalisers, growth on average increased inequality significantly and was not associated with poverty reduction. On the other hand, for developing economies that globalised at a relatively slower pace, growth reduced poverty and was not associated with rising inequality.
This paper examines the employment situation in Indonesia during and in the aftermath of the Asia... more This paper examines the employment situation in Indonesia during and in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Great Recession, including importantly how the quality of work responded to the changing composition of Indonesia’s growth process. The authors find that many labour market indicators have moved in an encouraging direction, but a decomposition of labour productivity indicates that productivity growth has been driven primarily from efficiencies “within” sectors rather than the allocation of labour across sectors. Facilitating and managing the structural transformation process in a fair and inclusive manner can further support Indonesia’s socioeconomic development.
Part 1. The changing forms of employment, unemployment and labour protection regimes in advanced ... more Part 1. The changing forms of employment, unemployment and labour protection regimes in advanced economies ..
The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practi... more The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.
This paper examines the effects of openness on wages in developing countries and developed econom... more This paper examines the effects of openness on wages in developing countries and developed economies separately using the ILO's October Inquiry data for wages. The findings suggest that in developing countries increased openness will not enhance wage rates directly although they may do so via growth, and may even produce (temporary) declines in real wage rates, as well as increase dispersions across wage rates. If openness generates economic growth it could allow some recovery of wages from the initial damage. However, it is quite clear that despite the positive effect of openness on growth, and that of growth on wages, the recovery from initial damage on the wage regime may not quite proceed in to full fledged enhancement of real wages in the developing world. While the explanation for the initial shock on real wages in the developing world may have something to do with sectoral demand shifts and their effects on wages, it may also importantly lie in the effect that increased openness has on inflation in the short run. On the other hand, in the developed world, wage earners in general will gain in the medium run with enhanced trade openness, and wage dispersions in these countries will not increase as a result. It is also likely that the explanation over here for the initial real wage declines due to openness may be more related to demand driven labour market adjustments, since the effect of openness, especially of FDI flows seems to be in lowering and not in increasing consumer prices. In short, the effects of openness on the wage regime are comparatively better in developed economies, even though in developing economies much of their adverseness, though serious, is of a temporary nature.
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