Papers by kevin Greenidge
This paper uses linear and nonlinear panel causality tests to empirically explore the direction o... more This paper uses linear and nonlinear panel causality tests to empirically explore the direction of causality between external debt stocks and credit ratings for a group of developing countries over the period 1998 to 2008. The results indicate that for the vast majority of the countries in the panel, a bi-directional causal relationship between external debt and sovereign ratings is
Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2010
This paper used various time series techniques, designed to model seasonal dynamics, in order to ... more This paper used various time series techniques, designed to model seasonal dynamics, in order to explain quarterly tourist flows from Barbados' primary source markets: the USA; the UK; Canada; and CARICOM for the period 1956:1-2002:4. The techniques employed were a Naïve model with Trend and Season, Winter's 3-parameter model, and SARIMA models.
Forecasting tourism demand
Annals of Tourism Research, 2001
... Butler (1980) was the first to identify a specific S-shaped cycle which he coined tourism li... more ... Butler (1980) was the first to identify a specific S-shaped cycle which he coined tourism lifecycle. ... The model is then subjected to a battery of standard diagnostic tests, which include the BoxLjungstatistic (Q-statistic) and DurbinWaston (DW) for autocorrelation in the residuals ...
Forecasting Arrivals to Barbados
Annals of Tourism Research, 1999
IMF Working Papers, 2003
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily repre... more The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper discusses the institutional arrangements for exchange rate targeting in Barbados and the critical role they played in the policy response to its balance of payments crisis of 1991-92. The framework featured ongoing cooperation between the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, and the use of a forecast model which highlighted the size of fiscal adjustment needed to secure foreign reserves adequate to maintain the exchange rate peg. JEL Classification Numbers;E63, F31, E52
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily repre... more The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM—THE BARBADOS CASE
Social and Economic Studies, Sep 1, 2006
A banking system module is incorporated into the Central Bank of Barbados' multisectoral mac... more A banking system module is incorporated into the Central Bank of Barbados' multisectoral macroeconomic forcasting model, and a medium term forecast is generated for bank capitalization, profitability, liquidity and non-performing loans. Stress tests are performed for the first year of the forecast, to test the banking system's resilience to real sector shocks. The analysis, which would in practice be only part of the vulnerability assessment, indicates that the banking system is stable and resilient to macroeconomic shocks of a type and ...
This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in th... more This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55-56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth. JEL Classification Numbers:F34, C23, C24
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2010
A notable build-up in the foreign debt stock of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) has been observ... more A notable build-up in the foreign debt stock of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) has been observed in recent years. By employing recent developments in panel unit root and co-integration analysis, this paper finds the major contributing factors to be: the output gap, real effective exchange rate, exports, real interest rate and current deviation of government expenditure from its trend value. Scenario analyses suggest that the time periods required to achieve the benchmark foreign debt to GDP ratio of 30%, for some countries, are too long, given the assumed parameters, but greater fiscal effort or more output growth can shorten these periods considerably.
International Advances in Economic Research, 2001
This study investigates the direction of causality between the money supply and reserve money for... more This study investigates the direction of causality between the money supply and reserve money for some selected Caribbean countries using recently developed techniques of causality tests. The findings suggest that neither money endogeneity nor money exogeneity can be generalized to all small, open economies. The causal patterns may differ according to whether the monetary arrangements of the countries follow either a fixed or flexible exchange rate regime. Moreover, this study highlights the fact that a mixed bag of policies must be implemented by respective central banks to maintain macroeconomic stability. (JEL E50)
The Effect of Argon Laser Trabeculoplasty on the Visual Field of Patients with Glaucoma
Documenta Ophthalmologica Proceedings Series, 1985
Effect of Argon Laser Trabeculoplasty in Open Angle Glaucoma: Our Experience
Documenta Ophthalmologica Proceedings Series, 1985
Determinants and Volatility of Remittances in the Caribbean
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Change in Appearance of the Optic Disc Associated with Lowering of intraocular Pressure
Ophthalmology, 1985
This report provides additional documentation that the appearance of the optic disc may improve a... more This report provides additional documentation that the appearance of the optic disc may improve after intraocular pressure is lowered in patients with glaucoma. Photographic records of one of the authors (GLS) were reviewed retrospectively. Seven previously unreported cases showing apparent improvement of the optic disc were found, and the patients' charts were reviewed. In two cases the improvement was transient, and in five it was lasting. Patients with evidence of disc improvement had an age range of 5 to 55 years. In one case, the scleral ring decreased in size following the lowering of intraocular pressure. In the other cases, the disc appeared to "fill in" without change in the size of the scleral ring. When improvement is short-lived, it presumably represents edema. When of longer duration, it may be a response to anterior repositioning of a posteriorly displaced lamina cribrosa, a decrease in diameter of the scleral ring, hypertrophy and/or proliferation of glial cells, or return towards normal of axonal metabolism. Because apparent improvement in the appearance of the optic disc can be subtle, it is usually not sought and is probably often unrecognized. Its true incidence is still unknown but appears to be underestimated.
Ophthalmology, 1985
All patients with primary open-angle or primary angle-closure glaucoma requiring trabeculectomy b... more All patients with primary open-angle or primary angle-closure glaucoma requiring trabeculectomy between January 1982 and January 1983 were entered into a randomized prospective study to evaluate the effect of postoperative corticosteroids. Twenty-three eyes in Group 1 received a cycloplegic and topical antibiotic. Twenty-nine eyes in Group 2 received the same treatment, with the addition of topical 1 "'o prednisolone acetate. Twentythree eyes in Group 3 received the same treatment as Group 2, with the addition of systemic prednisone. Success rate was significantly improved with the use of topical corticosteroids. Systemic steroids did not prove to be of any added benefit over topical use alone. [
Ophthalmology, 1983
Patients with uncontrolled open-angle glaucoma were treated with argon laser to the trabecular me... more Patients with uncontrolled open-angle glaucoma were treated with argon laser to the trabecular meshwork. These patients were divided into six groups. Each group of eyes had a slightly different technique of argon laser therapy. Except for one group, there was an adequate pressure lowering effect at the longest follow-up (-18 to -28%). Since the worst complication of argon laser trabeculoplasty is the immediate elevation in intraocular pressure with subsequent worsening of the field and/or disc, the immediate rise in intraocular pressure was measured and compared for each of the various techniques. In addition comparison was made when treating 180 0 in one eye and 360 0 in the other eye of 30 individuals having similar glaucomatous disease bilaterally. Little difference was noted between the two eyes. [Key words: argon laser trabeculoplasty, intraocular pressure, open angle glaucoma, pulsed argon laser, trabecular meshwork.] Ophthalmology
Effect of Argon Laser Trabeculoplasty on the Glaucomatous Diurnal Curve
Ophthalmology, 1983
Daily pressure variation occurs in all individuals. In glaucomatous patients this variation is ma... more Daily pressure variation occurs in all individuals. In glaucomatous patients this variation is marked and may exceed 20 mm of mercury. Argon laser trabeculoplasty (ALT) lowers intraocular pressure (IOP). The effect of ALT on the glaucomatous diurnal curve was studied. Incidence and magnitude of post-trabeculoplasty pressure elevation was documented. Twenty-five patients are reported. All patients were treated according to the protocol advocated by Wise. Diurnal curves were obtained 24 hours prior to ALT, and compared to curves obtained 24 hours and 8 weeks after ALT. Eight weeks after surgery the mean IOP fell 22%; the mean peak pressure fell 25%; the mean pressure range fell 30%; and the pressure fluctuations fell 25%. All values were significant at P less than 0.0005. Pressure elevations greater than 5 mmHg occurred in 46% of patients. The effect of ALT on the diurnal curve of glaucomatous patients may be beneficial. Pressure spikes are frequent.
In Barbados, and the Caribbean as a whole, very little research has been done on the topic of the... more In Barbados, and the Caribbean as a whole, very little research has been done on the topic of the informal economy. This paper estimates the size of the Barbadian informal sector for the period 1972-2007. In light of our analysis of the stationary properties of the data, which suggests a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, this study specifies an unrestricted error correction model and employs a general-to-specific (GETs) modelling procedure, allowing us to minimise the possibility of estimating spurious relations while retaining the long-run information. Our estimates indicate that this sector is quite large and has grown over time to about one-third the size of the official economy. These results are consistent with the stylised fact about the Barbadian economy, in particular the large number of persons employed in small businesses and trading as well as the number of tax returns filed on an annual basis versus the stated level of employment. The finding of a significant informal sector also has implications for the conduct of both monetary and fiscal policy. At the minimum it means that possible spillover effects between the two sectors must be taken into consideration in the design and execution of policies.
Current account deficit sustainability: the case of Barbados
Applied Economics, 2011
... 8823 View all references; Vinals and Cuddington, 198846. Vinals, JM and Cuddington, JT. 1988.... more ... 8823 View all references; Vinals and Cuddington, 198846. Vinals, JM and Cuddington, JT. 1988. Fiscal policy and the current account: what do capital controls do?. ... St. Augustine: Caribbean Centre for Monetary Studies, University of the West Indies. View all references). ...
American Journal of Ophthalmology, 2005
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Papers by kevin Greenidge