Resumo: O objetivo desta pesquisa foi mensurar o nível tecnológico das unidades agrícolas familia... more Resumo: O objetivo desta pesquisa foi mensurar o nível tecnológico das unidades agrícolas familiares (UAF) da região Nordeste do Brasil. Para tanto, criou-se um Índice Tecnológico nas UAF (ITUAF), utilizando a técnica de análise fatorial pelo método de componentes principais. Além desse índice, aplica-se a análise de agrupamentos com o intuito de identificar clusters tecnológicos dentre as microrregiões nordestinas. Para o nível de tecnologia, foram definidos cinco níveis ("Muito Alto", "Alto", "Médio", "Baixo" e "Muito Baixo"). Foram selecionadas 166 microrregiões e utilizadas 18 variáveis como indicadores de tecnologia, fazendo-se uso da técnica de análise fatorial. A análise de agrupamentos proposta pelo trabalho, para identificar os aglomerados de tecnologia nas microrregiões, definiu dois clusters, denominados como "menos tecnológico" (cluster 1) e "mais tecnológico" (cluster 2). Esses agrupamentos demonstram que, na região Nordeste, considerando as microrregiões estudadas, a maioria delas, ou seja, 56,63%, está inserida no cluster 1, isto é, possui um nível tecnológico menos intenso em relação ao cluster 2. No tocante aos estados nordestinos, a maioria está no cluster 2 (nível técnico "mais intenso"), ou seja, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Sergipe, Maranhão e Piauí possuem todas as microrregiões e, por consequência, suas UAF no nível técnico "menos intenso". Palavras-chave: tecnologia; análise fatorial e de agrupamentos; Nordeste.
International journal of business administration, Mar 15, 2024
The research aims to: a) assess the instabilities associated with rainfall and the variables that... more The research aims to: a) assess the instabilities associated with rainfall and the variables that define the production of rice, beans, cassava and corn in the state of Ceará between 1945 and 2020; b) estimate models that can be used to make projections of harvested areas, yields and prices for these crops between 1945 and 2020; c) assess the impact of rainfall on the estimated forecasting models; d) assess how rainfall affects the likelihood of farmers making forecasts of the variables that define agricultural production. Rainfall data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA). Crop yield data came from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Instabilities were measured by the coefficients of variation. ARIMA models (autoregressive, integrated and moving average model) were used to make the forecasts. The hypothesis that the residuals generated by the models are influenced by annual rainfall was tested. The results showed high instabilities in annual rainfall, which spread to the variables that define crop yields. Parsimonious and robust adjustments were obtained from a statistical point of view and it was shown that the errors generated, including their magnitudes, in the models used to forecast all the variables that define bean and corn yields, harvested areas and rice yields, as well as cassava yields, are influenced by annual rainfall in Ceará between 1945 and 2020.
A pesquisa objetiva avaliar os perfis das produções agropecuárias nas unidades agrícolas familiar... more A pesquisa objetiva avaliar os perfis das produções agropecuárias nas unidades agrícolas familiares (UAF) e patronais (UAP) do Ceará, a partir do Censo Agropecuário de 2017, bem como das regiões criadas pela Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (Funceme) para o Estado. Supõe-se que as heterogeneidades detectadas nas produções das regiões decorram das diferenças climáticas. Para testar essa hipótese, criaram-se os índices de produtividade para as UAF e UAP, para aferir as sinergias entre pluviometria e produtividades. No geral, os resultados reforçaram a importância das atividades agrícolas nas UAP e nas UAF como empregadoras de trabalhadores nas áreas rurais do Estado, o que contribui para reduzir problemas decorrentes de emigração desordenada. Neste aspecto, as UAF mostraram possuir maior capacidade de absorção dessa força de trabalho, sobretudo na região com maior dificuldade climática do Estado, que é a Central e Inhamuns. Das evidências também se depreende que, ...
Esta pesquisa analisou a relação entre a instabilidade pluviométrica e produções de caju, feijão,... more Esta pesquisa analisou a relação entre a instabilidade pluviométrica e produções de caju, feijão, mandioca e milho nos estados do Ceará, Piauí e Rio Grande do Norte, de 1974 a 2020. Os objetivos específicos: foram classificar os padrões de distribuição das chuvas nos estados; investigar as interações entre as instabilidades pluviométricas e as produções das lavouras; e avaliar a resiliência das colheitas aos estresses pluviométricos nos anos estudados. Foram utilizadas médias e desvios padrões das chuvas entre 1901 e 2020. Os coeficientes de variação das chuvas foram utilizados para medir as instabilidades. Foi criado o índice de produtividade-IPROD. Para avaliar as sinergias entre as pluviometrias e as variáveis de produção das lavouras, utilizou-se análise fatorial. A ocorrência de resiliência foi avaliada comparando os dados de chuvas antes e depois de períodos de seca, estimando-se o IPROD nesses períodos e utilizando análise gráfica e comparação de médias. Os resultados da pesq...
The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural pr... more The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural production in the state of Piauí in family farming units (UAF) and employer farming units (UAP) by conducting a comparative study of the Agricultural Census of the years 2006 and 2017. The data used were collected from the Automatic Recovery System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (SIDRA/IBGE). The factorial analysis methodology was applied to build an index that captures the synergy between the pluviometry of Piauí municipalities with the variables that define agricultural production. The results showed that the rainfall in 2006 presented higher averages than in 2017 and that it was very unstable in both periods. The evidence confirmed that agricultural production in the semiarid municipalities is lower than in municipalities positioned outside this climatic regime.
Observatorio de la economía latinoamericana, Jun 20, 2023
We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cass... more We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cassava and corn and made projections of per capita production of these crops between 2022 and 2031. Rainfall in Maranhão between the years 1933 to 2020 was placed into three periods: short, normal and rainy. Agricultural production and population data from IBGE were used. Annual rainfall was collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Variable instabilities were estimated by Coefficients of Variation. ARIMA models were fitted for forecasting. Population forecasts were made using instantaneous geometric rate of population growth in two scenarios. The results showed that it was possible to classify the rainfall in the three
The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contract... more The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contracts of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf) were distributed in the Brazilian regions and states between the years 2000 and 2018. To reach the research objectives, which also sought to evaluate the homogeneity/heterogeneity of the appropriation of Pronaf resources in Brazilian regions and states, data from the Central Bank of Brazil were used. The values were updated for the year 2018. The rural credit appropriation index (ICAR) was constructed, which is the weighted average of the relative annual values of the Pronaf credit modalities: funding and investment for crop and animal production. The weights used for the weighting were generated using factor analysis. The results of the research showed that the appropriation of Pronaf's resources was quite unequal in the evaluated period, being the richest regions and states the ones that captured the highest av...
The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural pr... more The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural production in the state of Piauí in family farming units (UAF) and employer farming units (UAP) by conducting a comparative study of the Agricultural Census of the years 2006 and 2017. The data used were collected from the Automatic Recovery System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (SIDRA/IBGE). The factorial analysis methodology was applied to build an index that captures the synergy between the pluviometry of Piauí municipalities with the variables that define agricultural production. The results showed that the rainfall in 2006 presented higher averages than in 2017 and that it was very unstable in both periods. The evidence confirmed that agricultural production in the semiarid municipalities is lower than in municipalities positioned outside this climatic regime.
Anais do 59º Congresso da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) e 6º Encontro Brasileiro de Pesquisadores em Cooperativismo (EBPC), 2021
We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cass... more We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cassava and corn and made projections of per capita production of these crops between 2022 and 2031. Rainfall in Maranhão between the years 1933 to 2020 was placed into three periods: short, normal and rainy. Agricultural production and population data from IBGE were used. Annual rainfall was collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Variable instabilities were estimated by Coefficients of Variation. ARIMA models were fitted for forecasting. Population forecasts were made using instantaneous geometric rate of population growth in two scenarios. The results showed that it was possible to classify the rainfall in the three periods with a high level of instability, which manifested itself in harvested areas and yields. The general conclusion of the research is that the per capita production of these crops presented its highest value in 1982, and from that year o...
A pesquisa desenhou modelos para fazer a previsão das séries históricas de exportações e dos preç... more A pesquisa desenhou modelos para fazer a previsão das séries históricas de exportações e dos preços do café entre os anos de 1821 e 2020. Os dados foram coletados junto ao Ministério da Industria e comercio. As nove diferentes modalidades de moedas nacional que ocorreram nesse período foram corrigidas para valores em dólares americanos de 2020. A pesquisa objetivava, além de construir modelos de previsão das duas séries, avaliar se os erros de previsão dos preços de café influenciaram os erros de previsão das exportações. Essa foi uma das hipóteses da pesquisa. O outro objetivo, que atendia a outra hipótese do estudo, foi avaliar as taxas geométricas de crescimento das exportações e dos preços em quatro quartos de século em que se dividiu as séries. Usou-se modelo ARIMA (P, D, Q) para fazer as previsões. Constatou-se que as séries estudadas não eram estacionárias. Mas ambas adquiriram essa condição com apenas uma diferença. Os resultados mostraram bons níveis de ajustamento dos mode...
The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contract... more The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contracts of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf) were distributed in the Brazilian regions and states between the years 2000 and 2018. To reach the research objectives, which also sought to evaluate the homogeneity/heterogeneity of the appropriation of Pronaf resources in Brazilian regions and states, data from the Central Bank of Brazil were used. The values were updated for the year 2018. The rural credit appropriation index (ICAR) was constructed, which is the weighted average of the relative annual values of the Pronaf credit modalities: funding and investment for crop and animal production. The weights used for the weighting were generated using factor analysis. The results of the research showed that the appropriation of Pronaf's resources was quite unequal in the evaluated period, being the richest regions and states the ones that captured the highest av...
O objetivo do estudo é estimar instabilidades temporais associadas ao valor da produção, área col... more O objetivo do estudo é estimar instabilidades temporais associadas ao valor da produção, área colhida, produtividade e produção per capita de feijão, mandioca e milho, que são as principais lavouras, cultivadas em regime de sequeiro e predominantemente na forma de consórcios, destinadas à produção de alimentos em unidades agrícolas familiares, nos municípios dos semiáridos dos estados do Ceará e Rio Grande do Norte.O período de análise se estende de 1991 a 2017. Os dados de origem secundária foram levantados junto às Pesquisas Agrícolas Municipais (PAM/IBGE). Utilizaram-se os coeficientes de variação (CV) das variáveis envolvidas na pesquisa para medir a instabilidade. Para criar o índice de instabilidade temporal (INST), que foi o instrumento aferidor da instabilidade agregada dos municípios, se agruparam os CV dos quatro indicadores num único fator. Para tanto se utilizou o método de decomposição em componentes principais da análise fatorial. Os resultados apontaram que todos os m...
Anais do 59º Congresso da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) e 6º Encontro Brasileiro de Pesquisadores em Cooperativismo (EBPC), 2021
Previsão da produção de fontes renováveis e não renováveis selecionadas da matriz energética bras... more Previsão da produção de fontes renováveis e não renováveis selecionadas da matriz energética brasileira
O Estudo tem como objetivo aferir os padrões de vulnerabilidades induzidas que acontecem nos 1262... more O Estudo tem como objetivo aferir os padrões de vulnerabilidades induzidas que acontecem nos 1262 municípios do semiárido brasileiro através de indicadores associados às privações de educação, renda, água encanada, saneamento e coleta sistemática de lixo. A pesquisa também objetivou avaliar como se distribuem os municípios do semiárido brasileiro no que se refere à apropriação do PIB. Os dados utilizados na pesquisa foram coletados junto ao IBGE. Cria-se o índice de vulnerabilidades induzidas que se constitui na média ponderada daqueles indicadores. Na ponderação dos indicadores utiliza-se o método de análise fatorial com decomposição em componentes principais. Os resultados mostraram que os níveis de vulnerabilidades induzidas são elevados nos municípios do semiárido brasileiro e que a grande maioria dos municípios do semiárido tem PIB per capita de no máximo um salário mínimo, e que há heterogeneidade na apropriação do PIB entre esses municípios. Palavras Chave: Pobreza. Desigu...
This book is a slightly modified edition, with updating of some information and concepts, of the ... more This book is a slightly modified edition, with updating of some information and concepts, of the Thesis I produced in June 2015 to apply for the position of Full Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the Federal University of Ceará. The modifications and updates made did not alter the essence of the original work which was, besides registering a concept that was created in the Thesis, that of "Induced Vulnerabilities", to show the situations of how the induction of the vulnerabilities discussed in the work affect, in distinct ways, the Brazilian municipalities, located or not in the Northeast, which are currently recognized by the federal government as being part of the Semi-Arid. A demand that has ceased to be merely technical, to have a very strong dose of politics. But the fact is that, in general, our fellow northeasterners, whether or not they live in the Semi-Arid that is technically defined or politically recognized by the federal government, survive in very critical economic, social, and environmental situations. The work shows this in all its nakedness and rawness. This work continues a line of research that I have been following for a long time: trying to demonstrate that poverty and social exclusion are faces of the same coin and are made up of, at least, five indicators. The concept of induced vulnerabilities condenses and internalizes these concepts that we have been working on in the Academy, where we had the opportunity to exercise them as State Secretary in two portfolios in the government of Maranhão, Strategic Affairs and Agriculture, during the period from March 2005 to December 2006. The expectation is that the concept of induced vulnerability will be appropriated not only in the Academy, but also in political circles and social groups. It is also expected that the engineering created and designed for its measurement, which is placed in the book, will be sufficiently intelligible to all who venture and give me the pleasure of reading the work. The mathematical modeling on which the engineering is anchored (this is an academic document, after all) will not hinder the understanding of the designed instrument for measuring induced vulnerabilities. Thus, it can be duly ignored by those who assess it as having some complexity and appropriate the weights that are generated from it for the construction of the Induced Vulnerability Index (IVI). The mathematical engineering was designed to obtain estimates of the weights associated with the vulnerability index without the author interfering with their respective magnitudes. But only the relationships that exist between the indicators used take care of defining the magnitudes of the weights. Thus, it is enough for the readers to appropriate the weights for the reading of the work to flow. At least this is my expectation. The Induced Vulnerability Index (IVI) is the instrument for measuring the vulnerabilities that are caused by the absence, by the mistake, or by the misdirection of public policies designed for the Northeast, in general, and for the semi-arid region, in particular. We try to demonstrate that these vulnerabilities cause a drop in labor productivity throughout the Northeast and the Semi-Arid and are some of the causes of poverty and social exclusion in which a good part of our countrymen are plundered. Thus, besides the measurement of the induced vulnerabilities, the study ventures to demonstrate how they impact our low income and contribute, along with the climatic difficulties, to the practically generalized deprivations that afflict the 1794 Northeastern municipalities. This work was done within the environment of the Semi-Arid Laboratory (LabSar), which we created in May 2014, aiming to develop research and studies, to do extension work always seeking to understand the complexities of the Semi-Arid. In this period, several fellows have already passed through, mostly from the Agronomy undergraduate course, but we have had fellows from the Geology undergraduate course and we currently have a fellow who is a renewable energy engineering undergraduate. We also have involvement from students from the Masters and PhD courses in Rural Economics from this UFC.
A produção de soja avança significativamente a partir dos anos noventa na região do MATOPIBA, com... more A produção de soja avança significativamente a partir dos anos noventa na região do MATOPIBA, composta pelos Estados do Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí e Bahia. Este trabalho objetiva simular a capacidade de produzir soja de forma sustentável naquela região, sem que novas áreas sejam desmatadas e tampouco avancem sobre as áreas destinadas à produção dos agricultores familiares. Utilizam-se dados da Produção Agrícola Municipal do IBGE no período de 1990 a 2016. Elaboram-se simulações em que se impuseram limites máximos para as áreas a serem colhidas com soja nos estados, de tal sorte que não avancem sobre aquelas dos agricultores familiares e não ultrapassem um valor teto simulado. Impõe-se assim que o crescimento da produção de soja na região, a partir daquelas áreas superiores, aconteça apenas via crescimento da produtividade por hectare. Cria-se o índice de sustentabilidade (ISUS) usando método de análise fatorial com a técnica de decomposição em componentes principais. Testam-se as di...
Resumo: O objetivo desta pesquisa foi mensurar o nível tecnológico das unidades agrícolas familia... more Resumo: O objetivo desta pesquisa foi mensurar o nível tecnológico das unidades agrícolas familiares (UAF) da região Nordeste do Brasil. Para tanto, criou-se um Índice Tecnológico nas UAF (ITUAF), utilizando a técnica de análise fatorial pelo método de componentes principais. Além desse índice, aplica-se a análise de agrupamentos com o intuito de identificar clusters tecnológicos dentre as microrregiões nordestinas. Para o nível de tecnologia, foram definidos cinco níveis ("Muito Alto", "Alto", "Médio", "Baixo" e "Muito Baixo"). Foram selecionadas 166 microrregiões e utilizadas 18 variáveis como indicadores de tecnologia, fazendo-se uso da técnica de análise fatorial. A análise de agrupamentos proposta pelo trabalho, para identificar os aglomerados de tecnologia nas microrregiões, definiu dois clusters, denominados como "menos tecnológico" (cluster 1) e "mais tecnológico" (cluster 2). Esses agrupamentos demonstram que, na região Nordeste, considerando as microrregiões estudadas, a maioria delas, ou seja, 56,63%, está inserida no cluster 1, isto é, possui um nível tecnológico menos intenso em relação ao cluster 2. No tocante aos estados nordestinos, a maioria está no cluster 2 (nível técnico "mais intenso"), ou seja, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Sergipe, Maranhão e Piauí possuem todas as microrregiões e, por consequência, suas UAF no nível técnico "menos intenso". Palavras-chave: tecnologia; análise fatorial e de agrupamentos; Nordeste.
International journal of business administration, Mar 15, 2024
The research aims to: a) assess the instabilities associated with rainfall and the variables that... more The research aims to: a) assess the instabilities associated with rainfall and the variables that define the production of rice, beans, cassava and corn in the state of Ceará between 1945 and 2020; b) estimate models that can be used to make projections of harvested areas, yields and prices for these crops between 1945 and 2020; c) assess the impact of rainfall on the estimated forecasting models; d) assess how rainfall affects the likelihood of farmers making forecasts of the variables that define agricultural production. Rainfall data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA). Crop yield data came from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Instabilities were measured by the coefficients of variation. ARIMA models (autoregressive, integrated and moving average model) were used to make the forecasts. The hypothesis that the residuals generated by the models are influenced by annual rainfall was tested. The results showed high instabilities in annual rainfall, which spread to the variables that define crop yields. Parsimonious and robust adjustments were obtained from a statistical point of view and it was shown that the errors generated, including their magnitudes, in the models used to forecast all the variables that define bean and corn yields, harvested areas and rice yields, as well as cassava yields, are influenced by annual rainfall in Ceará between 1945 and 2020.
A pesquisa objetiva avaliar os perfis das produções agropecuárias nas unidades agrícolas familiar... more A pesquisa objetiva avaliar os perfis das produções agropecuárias nas unidades agrícolas familiares (UAF) e patronais (UAP) do Ceará, a partir do Censo Agropecuário de 2017, bem como das regiões criadas pela Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (Funceme) para o Estado. Supõe-se que as heterogeneidades detectadas nas produções das regiões decorram das diferenças climáticas. Para testar essa hipótese, criaram-se os índices de produtividade para as UAF e UAP, para aferir as sinergias entre pluviometria e produtividades. No geral, os resultados reforçaram a importância das atividades agrícolas nas UAP e nas UAF como empregadoras de trabalhadores nas áreas rurais do Estado, o que contribui para reduzir problemas decorrentes de emigração desordenada. Neste aspecto, as UAF mostraram possuir maior capacidade de absorção dessa força de trabalho, sobretudo na região com maior dificuldade climática do Estado, que é a Central e Inhamuns. Das evidências também se depreende que, ...
Esta pesquisa analisou a relação entre a instabilidade pluviométrica e produções de caju, feijão,... more Esta pesquisa analisou a relação entre a instabilidade pluviométrica e produções de caju, feijão, mandioca e milho nos estados do Ceará, Piauí e Rio Grande do Norte, de 1974 a 2020. Os objetivos específicos: foram classificar os padrões de distribuição das chuvas nos estados; investigar as interações entre as instabilidades pluviométricas e as produções das lavouras; e avaliar a resiliência das colheitas aos estresses pluviométricos nos anos estudados. Foram utilizadas médias e desvios padrões das chuvas entre 1901 e 2020. Os coeficientes de variação das chuvas foram utilizados para medir as instabilidades. Foi criado o índice de produtividade-IPROD. Para avaliar as sinergias entre as pluviometrias e as variáveis de produção das lavouras, utilizou-se análise fatorial. A ocorrência de resiliência foi avaliada comparando os dados de chuvas antes e depois de períodos de seca, estimando-se o IPROD nesses períodos e utilizando análise gráfica e comparação de médias. Os resultados da pesq...
The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural pr... more The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural production in the state of Piauí in family farming units (UAF) and employer farming units (UAP) by conducting a comparative study of the Agricultural Census of the years 2006 and 2017. The data used were collected from the Automatic Recovery System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (SIDRA/IBGE). The factorial analysis methodology was applied to build an index that captures the synergy between the pluviometry of Piauí municipalities with the variables that define agricultural production. The results showed that the rainfall in 2006 presented higher averages than in 2017 and that it was very unstable in both periods. The evidence confirmed that agricultural production in the semiarid municipalities is lower than in municipalities positioned outside this climatic regime.
Observatorio de la economía latinoamericana, Jun 20, 2023
We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cass... more We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cassava and corn and made projections of per capita production of these crops between 2022 and 2031. Rainfall in Maranhão between the years 1933 to 2020 was placed into three periods: short, normal and rainy. Agricultural production and population data from IBGE were used. Annual rainfall was collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Variable instabilities were estimated by Coefficients of Variation. ARIMA models were fitted for forecasting. Population forecasts were made using instantaneous geometric rate of population growth in two scenarios. The results showed that it was possible to classify the rainfall in the three
The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contract... more The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contracts of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf) were distributed in the Brazilian regions and states between the years 2000 and 2018. To reach the research objectives, which also sought to evaluate the homogeneity/heterogeneity of the appropriation of Pronaf resources in Brazilian regions and states, data from the Central Bank of Brazil were used. The values were updated for the year 2018. The rural credit appropriation index (ICAR) was constructed, which is the weighted average of the relative annual values of the Pronaf credit modalities: funding and investment for crop and animal production. The weights used for the weighting were generated using factor analysis. The results of the research showed that the appropriation of Pronaf's resources was quite unequal in the evaluated period, being the richest regions and states the ones that captured the highest av...
The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural pr... more The research aims to evaluate how the spatial distribution of rainfall influenced agricultural production in the state of Piauí in family farming units (UAF) and employer farming units (UAP) by conducting a comparative study of the Agricultural Census of the years 2006 and 2017. The data used were collected from the Automatic Recovery System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (SIDRA/IBGE). The factorial analysis methodology was applied to build an index that captures the synergy between the pluviometry of Piauí municipalities with the variables that define agricultural production. The results showed that the rainfall in 2006 presented higher averages than in 2017 and that it was very unstable in both periods. The evidence confirmed that agricultural production in the semiarid municipalities is lower than in municipalities positioned outside this climatic regime.
Anais do 59º Congresso da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) e 6º Encontro Brasileiro de Pesquisadores em Cooperativismo (EBPC), 2021
We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cass... more We studied the instability of rainfall, harvested areas and aggregate yields of rice, beans, cassava and corn and made projections of per capita production of these crops between 2022 and 2031. Rainfall in Maranhão between the years 1933 to 2020 was placed into three periods: short, normal and rainy. Agricultural production and population data from IBGE were used. Annual rainfall was collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Variable instabilities were estimated by Coefficients of Variation. ARIMA models were fitted for forecasting. Population forecasts were made using instantaneous geometric rate of population growth in two scenarios. The results showed that it was possible to classify the rainfall in the three periods with a high level of instability, which manifested itself in harvested areas and yields. The general conclusion of the research is that the per capita production of these crops presented its highest value in 1982, and from that year o...
A pesquisa desenhou modelos para fazer a previsão das séries históricas de exportações e dos preç... more A pesquisa desenhou modelos para fazer a previsão das séries históricas de exportações e dos preços do café entre os anos de 1821 e 2020. Os dados foram coletados junto ao Ministério da Industria e comercio. As nove diferentes modalidades de moedas nacional que ocorreram nesse período foram corrigidas para valores em dólares americanos de 2020. A pesquisa objetivava, além de construir modelos de previsão das duas séries, avaliar se os erros de previsão dos preços de café influenciaram os erros de previsão das exportações. Essa foi uma das hipóteses da pesquisa. O outro objetivo, que atendia a outra hipótese do estudo, foi avaliar as taxas geométricas de crescimento das exportações e dos preços em quatro quartos de século em que se dividiu as séries. Usou-se modelo ARIMA (P, D, Q) para fazer as previsões. Constatou-se que as séries estudadas não eram estacionárias. Mas ambas adquiriram essa condição com apenas uma diferença. Os resultados mostraram bons níveis de ajustamento dos mode...
The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contract... more The research sought to evaluate how the resources are appropriated and how the number of contracts of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf) were distributed in the Brazilian regions and states between the years 2000 and 2018. To reach the research objectives, which also sought to evaluate the homogeneity/heterogeneity of the appropriation of Pronaf resources in Brazilian regions and states, data from the Central Bank of Brazil were used. The values were updated for the year 2018. The rural credit appropriation index (ICAR) was constructed, which is the weighted average of the relative annual values of the Pronaf credit modalities: funding and investment for crop and animal production. The weights used for the weighting were generated using factor analysis. The results of the research showed that the appropriation of Pronaf's resources was quite unequal in the evaluated period, being the richest regions and states the ones that captured the highest av...
O objetivo do estudo é estimar instabilidades temporais associadas ao valor da produção, área col... more O objetivo do estudo é estimar instabilidades temporais associadas ao valor da produção, área colhida, produtividade e produção per capita de feijão, mandioca e milho, que são as principais lavouras, cultivadas em regime de sequeiro e predominantemente na forma de consórcios, destinadas à produção de alimentos em unidades agrícolas familiares, nos municípios dos semiáridos dos estados do Ceará e Rio Grande do Norte.O período de análise se estende de 1991 a 2017. Os dados de origem secundária foram levantados junto às Pesquisas Agrícolas Municipais (PAM/IBGE). Utilizaram-se os coeficientes de variação (CV) das variáveis envolvidas na pesquisa para medir a instabilidade. Para criar o índice de instabilidade temporal (INST), que foi o instrumento aferidor da instabilidade agregada dos municípios, se agruparam os CV dos quatro indicadores num único fator. Para tanto se utilizou o método de decomposição em componentes principais da análise fatorial. Os resultados apontaram que todos os m...
Anais do 59º Congresso da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) e 6º Encontro Brasileiro de Pesquisadores em Cooperativismo (EBPC), 2021
Previsão da produção de fontes renováveis e não renováveis selecionadas da matriz energética bras... more Previsão da produção de fontes renováveis e não renováveis selecionadas da matriz energética brasileira
O Estudo tem como objetivo aferir os padrões de vulnerabilidades induzidas que acontecem nos 1262... more O Estudo tem como objetivo aferir os padrões de vulnerabilidades induzidas que acontecem nos 1262 municípios do semiárido brasileiro através de indicadores associados às privações de educação, renda, água encanada, saneamento e coleta sistemática de lixo. A pesquisa também objetivou avaliar como se distribuem os municípios do semiárido brasileiro no que se refere à apropriação do PIB. Os dados utilizados na pesquisa foram coletados junto ao IBGE. Cria-se o índice de vulnerabilidades induzidas que se constitui na média ponderada daqueles indicadores. Na ponderação dos indicadores utiliza-se o método de análise fatorial com decomposição em componentes principais. Os resultados mostraram que os níveis de vulnerabilidades induzidas são elevados nos municípios do semiárido brasileiro e que a grande maioria dos municípios do semiárido tem PIB per capita de no máximo um salário mínimo, e que há heterogeneidade na apropriação do PIB entre esses municípios. Palavras Chave: Pobreza. Desigu...
This book is a slightly modified edition, with updating of some information and concepts, of the ... more This book is a slightly modified edition, with updating of some information and concepts, of the Thesis I produced in June 2015 to apply for the position of Full Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the Federal University of Ceará. The modifications and updates made did not alter the essence of the original work which was, besides registering a concept that was created in the Thesis, that of "Induced Vulnerabilities", to show the situations of how the induction of the vulnerabilities discussed in the work affect, in distinct ways, the Brazilian municipalities, located or not in the Northeast, which are currently recognized by the federal government as being part of the Semi-Arid. A demand that has ceased to be merely technical, to have a very strong dose of politics. But the fact is that, in general, our fellow northeasterners, whether or not they live in the Semi-Arid that is technically defined or politically recognized by the federal government, survive in very critical economic, social, and environmental situations. The work shows this in all its nakedness and rawness. This work continues a line of research that I have been following for a long time: trying to demonstrate that poverty and social exclusion are faces of the same coin and are made up of, at least, five indicators. The concept of induced vulnerabilities condenses and internalizes these concepts that we have been working on in the Academy, where we had the opportunity to exercise them as State Secretary in two portfolios in the government of Maranhão, Strategic Affairs and Agriculture, during the period from March 2005 to December 2006. The expectation is that the concept of induced vulnerability will be appropriated not only in the Academy, but also in political circles and social groups. It is also expected that the engineering created and designed for its measurement, which is placed in the book, will be sufficiently intelligible to all who venture and give me the pleasure of reading the work. The mathematical modeling on which the engineering is anchored (this is an academic document, after all) will not hinder the understanding of the designed instrument for measuring induced vulnerabilities. Thus, it can be duly ignored by those who assess it as having some complexity and appropriate the weights that are generated from it for the construction of the Induced Vulnerability Index (IVI). The mathematical engineering was designed to obtain estimates of the weights associated with the vulnerability index without the author interfering with their respective magnitudes. But only the relationships that exist between the indicators used take care of defining the magnitudes of the weights. Thus, it is enough for the readers to appropriate the weights for the reading of the work to flow. At least this is my expectation. The Induced Vulnerability Index (IVI) is the instrument for measuring the vulnerabilities that are caused by the absence, by the mistake, or by the misdirection of public policies designed for the Northeast, in general, and for the semi-arid region, in particular. We try to demonstrate that these vulnerabilities cause a drop in labor productivity throughout the Northeast and the Semi-Arid and are some of the causes of poverty and social exclusion in which a good part of our countrymen are plundered. Thus, besides the measurement of the induced vulnerabilities, the study ventures to demonstrate how they impact our low income and contribute, along with the climatic difficulties, to the practically generalized deprivations that afflict the 1794 Northeastern municipalities. This work was done within the environment of the Semi-Arid Laboratory (LabSar), which we created in May 2014, aiming to develop research and studies, to do extension work always seeking to understand the complexities of the Semi-Arid. In this period, several fellows have already passed through, mostly from the Agronomy undergraduate course, but we have had fellows from the Geology undergraduate course and we currently have a fellow who is a renewable energy engineering undergraduate. We also have involvement from students from the Masters and PhD courses in Rural Economics from this UFC.
A produção de soja avança significativamente a partir dos anos noventa na região do MATOPIBA, com... more A produção de soja avança significativamente a partir dos anos noventa na região do MATOPIBA, composta pelos Estados do Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí e Bahia. Este trabalho objetiva simular a capacidade de produzir soja de forma sustentável naquela região, sem que novas áreas sejam desmatadas e tampouco avancem sobre as áreas destinadas à produção dos agricultores familiares. Utilizam-se dados da Produção Agrícola Municipal do IBGE no período de 1990 a 2016. Elaboram-se simulações em que se impuseram limites máximos para as áreas a serem colhidas com soja nos estados, de tal sorte que não avancem sobre aquelas dos agricultores familiares e não ultrapassem um valor teto simulado. Impõe-se assim que o crescimento da produção de soja na região, a partir daquelas áreas superiores, aconteça apenas via crescimento da produtividade por hectare. Cria-se o índice de sustentabilidade (ISUS) usando método de análise fatorial com a técnica de decomposição em componentes principais. Testam-se as di...
Uploads
Papers by jose lemos