Papers by fernando Aquino
O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar as condições de sustentabilidade da dívida pública br... more O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar as condições de sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira a partir da introdução do Real. Para tanto, propõe-se um conceito, chamado "dívida pública de liquidez". Em seguida, apresenta-se a sua evolução em percentuais do PIB, decompõe-se o seu crescimento e avalia-se o seu alongamento e a sua volatilidade. Finalmente, sugere-se um indicador envolvendo estoques relativos e prazos, cuja aplicação ameniza a avaliação propiciada por indicadores mais simples. Palavras-chave: Dívida Pública, Liquidez, Sustentabilidade Classificação JEL: H63 ⋆ O artigo não representa, necessariamente, posicionamento oficial das instituiçõesàs quais pertencem estes autores ou de seus membros.
Globalização Econômica e Investimentos no Brasil
This paper analyse the determinants of investment in Brazil in an environment of globalisation. T... more This paper analyse the determinants of investment in Brazil in an environment of globalisation. To achieve a proper identification the economy is divided in three sectors: public, domestic private and international private. Since the growth of volatility is one of the main results of the globalisation, we deal with some theories of investment under uncertainty. The GARCH model to measure
The economic literature contains extensive discussions on relationship between foreign constraint... more The economic literature contains extensive discussions on relationship between foreign constraints and economic growth. Since the beginning of the 1990's one debate concentrates on the nature of macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand in Brazil in an environment of capital flows liberalization. An important analysis on export-led growth hypothesis has followed. The validity of such approach depends on the response
Revista de Economia Política, 2010
Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that s... more Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that sustainable inflation persistence has theoretical support not only due price indexation, but also because of micro-foundations based on assumptions of Simon's bounded rationality and because of persistent markup shocks. the new keynesian phillips curve, estimated for brazil for the period 2000/2008, and the partial coefficients of determination for moving sub-periods of 36 months identifies inflation persistence as the main determinant of inflation, with the capacity gap presenting larger importance only in the end of the sample period. Inflation persistence requires harder monetary policy when neither accommodation is acceptable nor complementary policies in order to reduce it, such as the minimization of indexation mechanisms and control of the market power, are adopted.
Uploads
Papers by fernando Aquino