Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts?... more Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.
Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts?... more Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures. JEL Classification Numbers: E31, J11, O4
The paper discusses the role the financial sector can play in supporting growth in Japan. While o... more The paper discusses the role the financial sector can play in supporting growth in Japan. While overall credit conditions have been accommodative, credit growth has remained weak, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Firm-level SME data and sectoral corporate balance sheets show that many SMEs have faced structural challenges of high leverage and low profitability. Moreover, the global financial crisis has weakened the financial position across SMEs, particularly for those with low credit worthiness. These challenges are closely related to low availability of riskcapital and the pervasiveness of credit support measures. This paper argues that to encourage the supply of risk-based capital, costly government support measures should be phased out and SME restructuring be accelerated. Efforts are also needed to deepen capital markets to enhance risk capital availability and address regulatory barriers to starting businesses. In that regard, addressing SME weaknesses would improve private investment, enhance firm productivity, and lift growth. JEL Classification Numbers: G21, G32, G01
Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts?... more Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.
Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts?... more Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures. JEL Classification Numbers: E31, J11, O4
The paper discusses the role the financial sector can play in supporting growth in Japan. While o... more The paper discusses the role the financial sector can play in supporting growth in Japan. While overall credit conditions have been accommodative, credit growth has remained weak, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Firm-level SME data and sectoral corporate balance sheets show that many SMEs have faced structural challenges of high leverage and low profitability. Moreover, the global financial crisis has weakened the financial position across SMEs, particularly for those with low credit worthiness. These challenges are closely related to low availability of riskcapital and the pervasiveness of credit support measures. This paper argues that to encourage the supply of risk-based capital, costly government support measures should be phased out and SME restructuring be accelerated. Efforts are also needed to deepen capital markets to enhance risk capital availability and address regulatory barriers to starting businesses. In that regard, addressing SME weaknesses would improve private investment, enhance firm productivity, and lift growth. JEL Classification Numbers: G21, G32, G01
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