This paper uses the recently published 2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) to determine ... more This paper uses the recently published 2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) to determine the number of commercial trucks in the categories that are most likely to idle for periods of over 0.5 h at a time. On the basis of estimated numbers of hours for both overnight idling by sleepers and long-duration idling by all size classes during their workdays, the total fuel use by idling trucks is estimated to be over 2 billion gallons per year. Workday idling is determined to be a potentially much larger energy user than overnight idling, but data are required before any definitive conclusions can be reached. Existing technologies can reduce overnight idling, but development may be needed to reduce workday idling.
The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to t... more The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to the present) from the Department of Energy (DOE) and predecessor agencies.
The Urban Transportation Policy Analysis Process (UTPAP) is described. UTPAP was developed as a s... more The Urban Transportation Policy Analysis Process (UTPAP) is described. UTPAP was developed as a sketch planning analysis tool for the Technology Assessment of Productive Conservation in Urban Transportation (TAPCUT). TAPCUT was a comprehensive study of the potential ...
As part of the model development and testing efforts of the National Acid Precipitation Assessmen... more As part of the model development and testing efforts of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, the Transportation and Emissions Modeling System (TEEMS) was evaluated and tested for its ability to forecast emissions of acid-rain precursor pollutants. This report describes the testing of various TEEMS components. A discussion of the driver inputs for the activity projection modules is followed by a description of the regionalization and emissions-computation procedures. A base-case economic and demographic test scenario and two alternative scenarios are described. Results of activity- and emissions-forecasting model runs are presented, and the sensitivity of TEEMS components to demographic, economic, and technological changes is discussed.
As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's... more As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research develops new and detailed forecasts of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type. The purpose of these forecasts, the latest of which ...
A procedure is described for modeling the choices made in urban American households among persona... more A procedure is described for modeling the choices made in urban American households among personal vehicles on the bases of cost, passenger capacity, and engine technology, and it projects those preferences to the year 1990 and 2000. The results of this disaggregate technique ...
As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's... more As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research develops new and detailed forecasts of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type. The purpose of these forecasts, the latest of which ...
A forecast of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type is presented and contrasted w... more A forecast of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type is presented and contrasted with several other long-range transportation energy forecasts recently appearing in the literature. The methodology, principal assumptions and key findings of the forecast are ...
The development of national travel demand and energy-use forecasts for automobile and common-carr... more The development of national travel demand and energy-use forecasts for automobile and common-carrier intercity travel through the year 2000. The forecasts are driven by the POINTS (Passenger Oriented Intercity Network Travel Simulation) model, a model direct-demand model which accounts for competition among modes and destinations. Developed and used to model SMSA-to-SMSA business and nonbusiness travel, POINTS is an improvement over
A method to forecast personal vehicle holdings and sales by household segment for the TAPCUT proj... more A method to forecast personal vehicle holdings and sales by household segment for the TAPCUT project is described and its usage and results documented. The method uses an incremental logit form of the Lave-Train vehicle choice model to estimate changes in the distribution of ...
Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs)... more Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts' opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented. A procedure to compute the cost of replacement battery packs is described, and the resulting replacement costs are presented. Projected vehicle purchase prices and fuel and maintenance costs are also presented. The vehicle purchase price and curb weight predictions would be difficult to achieve with the mean battery characteristics. With the battery replacement costs added to the fuel and maintenance costs, the conventional ICE vehicle is projected to have a clear advantage over electric drive vehicles through the projection period.
Ceramic engine components have potential to improve vehicle fuel economy. Some recent tests have ... more Ceramic engine components have potential to improve vehicle fuel economy. Some recent tests have also shown their environmental benefits, particularly in reducing particulate emissions in heavy-duty diesel engines. The authors used the data from a survey of the US vehicle engine and component manufacturers relating to ceramic engine components to develop a set of market penetration models. The survey identified promising ceramic components and provided data on the timing of achieving introductory shares in light and heavy-duty markets. Some ceramic components will penetrate the market when the pilot-scale costs are reduced to one-fifth of their current values, and many more will enter the market when the costs are reduced to one-tenth of the current values. An ongoing ceramics research program sponsored by the US Department of Energy has the goal of achieving such price reductions. The size and value of the future ceramic components market and the impacts of this market in terms of ...
The incremental worldwide effects on greenhouse gases are estimated for the substitution of natur... more The incremental worldwide effects on greenhouse gases are estimated for the substitution of natural gas- or methanol-based light-duty vehicles for current gasoline-based vehicles in the United States. The effects are estimated on a per-vehicle mile basis, holding acceleration, passenger capacity, engine technology, and range of the vehicle constant. The relative merits of natural gas- or methanol-based vehicles for commuting and other household vehicle market niches are considered. In terms of net global greenhouse gas emissions, the replacement of crude-oil-derived gasoline by non-gasoline fuels derived from natural gas is superior to the use of gasoline derived from natural gas. The transition paths from oil to natural-gas-based light-duty vehicle fuels is examined, considering the effects of the substitution of currently flared natural gas for crude oil as the raw material for transition transportation fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions arising from the following raw material pathwa...
This paper summarizes the results of a lightweight materials study. Various lightweight materials... more This paper summarizes the results of a lightweight materials study. Various lightweight materials are examined and the most cost effective are selected for further analysis. Aluminum and high-performance polymer matrix composites (PMCS) are found to have the highest potential for reducing the weight of automobiles and passenger-oriented light trucks. Weight reduction potential for aluminum and carbon fiber-based PMCs are computed based on a set of component-specific replacement criteria (such as stiffness and strength), and the consequent incremental cost scenarios are developed. The authors assume that a materials R and D program successfully reduces the cost of manufacturing aluminum and carbon fiber PMC-intensive vehicles. A vehicle choice model is used to project market shares for the lightweight vehicles. A vehicle survival and age-related usage model is employed to compute energy consumption over time for the vehicle stock. After a review of projected costs, the following two ...
A study is described that was conducted to provide a realistic technical and economic assessment ... more A study is described that was conducted to provide a realistic technical and economic assessment of the use of advanced ceramic materials technology for heat engines in transportation applications. Key results from a worldwide Delphi survey are presented on the expected timing and rate of market development for ceramic engine components and engines. These results show that, by the mid 1990s, a substantial number of ceramic engine components will be in production and ceramic-intensive engines will be introduced. Also presented in the study are benefits and barriers to the use of ceramic technology in heat engines and other relevant factors influencing its rate of adoption. A modeling approach is presented that uses the survey data to produce a series of market penetration curves for individual ceramic engine components for light- and heavy-duty applications under different scenarios. Finally, the conditions required for rapid market development of ceramic technology for heat engines ...
This paper uses the recently published 2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) to determine ... more This paper uses the recently published 2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) to determine the number of commercial trucks in the categories that are most likely to idle for periods of over 0.5 h at a time. On the basis of estimated numbers of hours for both overnight idling by sleepers and long-duration idling by all size classes during their workdays, the total fuel use by idling trucks is estimated to be over 2 billion gallons per year. Workday idling is determined to be a potentially much larger energy user than overnight idling, but data are required before any definitive conclusions can be reached. Existing technologies can reduce overnight idling, but development may be needed to reduce workday idling.
The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to t... more The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to the present) from the Department of Energy (DOE) and predecessor agencies.
The Urban Transportation Policy Analysis Process (UTPAP) is described. UTPAP was developed as a s... more The Urban Transportation Policy Analysis Process (UTPAP) is described. UTPAP was developed as a sketch planning analysis tool for the Technology Assessment of Productive Conservation in Urban Transportation (TAPCUT). TAPCUT was a comprehensive study of the potential ...
As part of the model development and testing efforts of the National Acid Precipitation Assessmen... more As part of the model development and testing efforts of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, the Transportation and Emissions Modeling System (TEEMS) was evaluated and tested for its ability to forecast emissions of acid-rain precursor pollutants. This report describes the testing of various TEEMS components. A discussion of the driver inputs for the activity projection modules is followed by a description of the regionalization and emissions-computation procedures. A base-case economic and demographic test scenario and two alternative scenarios are described. Results of activity- and emissions-forecasting model runs are presented, and the sensitivity of TEEMS components to demographic, economic, and technological changes is discussed.
As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's... more As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research develops new and detailed forecasts of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type. The purpose of these forecasts, the latest of which ...
A procedure is described for modeling the choices made in urban American households among persona... more A procedure is described for modeling the choices made in urban American households among personal vehicles on the bases of cost, passenger capacity, and engine technology, and it projects those preferences to the year 1990 and 2000. The results of this disaggregate technique ...
As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's... more As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research develops new and detailed forecasts of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type. The purpose of these forecasts, the latest of which ...
A forecast of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type is presented and contrasted w... more A forecast of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type is presented and contrasted with several other long-range transportation energy forecasts recently appearing in the literature. The methodology, principal assumptions and key findings of the forecast are ...
The development of national travel demand and energy-use forecasts for automobile and common-carr... more The development of national travel demand and energy-use forecasts for automobile and common-carrier intercity travel through the year 2000. The forecasts are driven by the POINTS (Passenger Oriented Intercity Network Travel Simulation) model, a model direct-demand model which accounts for competition among modes and destinations. Developed and used to model SMSA-to-SMSA business and nonbusiness travel, POINTS is an improvement over
A method to forecast personal vehicle holdings and sales by household segment for the TAPCUT proj... more A method to forecast personal vehicle holdings and sales by household segment for the TAPCUT project is described and its usage and results documented. The method uses an incremental logit form of the Lave-Train vehicle choice model to estimate changes in the distribution of ...
Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs)... more Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts' opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented. A procedure to compute the cost of replacement battery packs is described, and the resulting replacement costs are presented. Projected vehicle purchase prices and fuel and maintenance costs are also presented. The vehicle purchase price and curb weight predictions would be difficult to achieve with the mean battery characteristics. With the battery replacement costs added to the fuel and maintenance costs, the conventional ICE vehicle is projected to have a clear advantage over electric drive vehicles through the projection period.
Ceramic engine components have potential to improve vehicle fuel economy. Some recent tests have ... more Ceramic engine components have potential to improve vehicle fuel economy. Some recent tests have also shown their environmental benefits, particularly in reducing particulate emissions in heavy-duty diesel engines. The authors used the data from a survey of the US vehicle engine and component manufacturers relating to ceramic engine components to develop a set of market penetration models. The survey identified promising ceramic components and provided data on the timing of achieving introductory shares in light and heavy-duty markets. Some ceramic components will penetrate the market when the pilot-scale costs are reduced to one-fifth of their current values, and many more will enter the market when the costs are reduced to one-tenth of the current values. An ongoing ceramics research program sponsored by the US Department of Energy has the goal of achieving such price reductions. The size and value of the future ceramic components market and the impacts of this market in terms of ...
The incremental worldwide effects on greenhouse gases are estimated for the substitution of natur... more The incremental worldwide effects on greenhouse gases are estimated for the substitution of natural gas- or methanol-based light-duty vehicles for current gasoline-based vehicles in the United States. The effects are estimated on a per-vehicle mile basis, holding acceleration, passenger capacity, engine technology, and range of the vehicle constant. The relative merits of natural gas- or methanol-based vehicles for commuting and other household vehicle market niches are considered. In terms of net global greenhouse gas emissions, the replacement of crude-oil-derived gasoline by non-gasoline fuels derived from natural gas is superior to the use of gasoline derived from natural gas. The transition paths from oil to natural-gas-based light-duty vehicle fuels is examined, considering the effects of the substitution of currently flared natural gas for crude oil as the raw material for transition transportation fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions arising from the following raw material pathwa...
This paper summarizes the results of a lightweight materials study. Various lightweight materials... more This paper summarizes the results of a lightweight materials study. Various lightweight materials are examined and the most cost effective are selected for further analysis. Aluminum and high-performance polymer matrix composites (PMCS) are found to have the highest potential for reducing the weight of automobiles and passenger-oriented light trucks. Weight reduction potential for aluminum and carbon fiber-based PMCs are computed based on a set of component-specific replacement criteria (such as stiffness and strength), and the consequent incremental cost scenarios are developed. The authors assume that a materials R and D program successfully reduces the cost of manufacturing aluminum and carbon fiber PMC-intensive vehicles. A vehicle choice model is used to project market shares for the lightweight vehicles. A vehicle survival and age-related usage model is employed to compute energy consumption over time for the vehicle stock. After a review of projected costs, the following two ...
A study is described that was conducted to provide a realistic technical and economic assessment ... more A study is described that was conducted to provide a realistic technical and economic assessment of the use of advanced ceramic materials technology for heat engines in transportation applications. Key results from a worldwide Delphi survey are presented on the expected timing and rate of market development for ceramic engine components and engines. These results show that, by the mid 1990s, a substantial number of ceramic engine components will be in production and ceramic-intensive engines will be introduced. Also presented in the study are benefits and barriers to the use of ceramic technology in heat engines and other relevant factors influencing its rate of adoption. A modeling approach is presented that uses the survey data to produce a series of market penetration curves for individual ceramic engine components for light- and heavy-duty applications under different scenarios. Finally, the conditions required for rapid market development of ceramic technology for heat engines ...
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