Papers by Valeritalbot Talbot
Democratisation against Democracy, 2020
This chapter addresses five questions: what were the drivers of the 2011 Uprisings?; what do citi... more This chapter addresses five questions: what were the drivers of the 2011 Uprisings?; what do citizens see as the main challenges facing their country?; do they want democracy and if yes what kind of democracy?; what type of government do they think will deliver on their priorities?; and do they trust their governments to deliver on their priorities? The main conclusions are: citizens see economic factors and corruption as the main driver of the Uprisings and the main challenge facing their country in 2016; while for democracy seen as the best system of government and compatible with Islam what they want is social-democratic democracy; democracy is not necessarily seen as the only type of government that can deliver on their demands; and there is little trust that governments will deliver. The discontent that drove the Uprisings is still evident indicating that further mass protests cannot be ruled out.
Over the past few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has become a major hotspot for both natural ga... more Over the past few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has become a major hotspot for both natural gas and geopolitical competition. Natural gas discoveries in the last decade have attracted growing interest from regional countries and beyond. However, recent escalations in tensions and outright confrontations suggest that competition goes beyond the scramble for energy.<br> Indeed, natural gas is just one of the factors that contribute to shaping security and geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has emerged as a crucial strategic area in the broader Mediterranean and the Middle East.<br> Moving from the analysis of these interconnected factors, this Report examines the strategy and the plethora of interests of regional and international players, as well as the interplay between cooperative and competitive dynamics in the region.<br> What are the geopolitical, security, and energy interests of the countries involved? What are the implications on th...
Since the early 2000s relations between Turkey and the Gulf monarchies have improved and cooperat... more Since the early 2000s relations between Turkey and the Gulf monarchies have improved and cooperation has progressively deepened in several domains. The gradual rapprochement between Ankara and the Gulf rulers was fostered by crucial changes both in the Middle East geopolitical context and in Turkish policy towards its Arab neighbourhood. Furthermore, high economic growth in both Turkey and the GCC played a key role in strengthening bilateral ties. Although economic considerations have had the lion's share in shaping the Turkish‐GCC relationship, mutual interests have also emerged in the field of regional security and counterterrorism and a strategic dialogue started in 2008. The outbreak of the crisis in Syria in the light of the Arab Spring marked the beginning of a new phase in Turkey‐GCC relations, also raising questions on future developments.
A new stage in relations between Turkey and Iran is likely to be opened by the signature of the i... more A new stage in relations between Turkey and Iran is likely to be opened by the signature of the in‐ terim agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme. After deep tensions in the last two years, due to the conflict in Syria and the deterioration of the Middle East landscape, Ankara and Tehran appear to be inclined to revive bilateral cooperation, in particular in economic and energy sectors. Recent po‐ litical and diplomatic efforts go in this direction and could also have a positive impact on regional dynamics. Beyond particular reciprocal interests, this rapprochement seems to be part of Turkey’s wider attempt to reset its foreign policy and to regain a preeminent regional role.
Over the last eight years the Syrian conflict has developed into one of the worst humanitarian tr... more Over the last eight years the Syrian conflict has developed into one of the worst humanitarian tragedies of modern times. More than half a million victims, 5 million refugees abroad and 6 million internally displaced: the figures only capture part of Syria's catastrophe. In addition, there is the less quantifiable damage to the country's social fabric. Against this dramatic backdrop, this ISPI Report aims to answer a few crucial questions: how can a country whose society has gone through such traumas and destruction reimagine itself and its future? What conditions would allow those Syrians who were forced to leave their homes to return? And what are the regional and international dynamics and interests that will shape Syria's future? The Report provides the reader with key tools to understand where Syria is headed and what can be done to avoid the worst scenarios.
The European Union in International Affairs, 2020
In this book we have shown why the EU's claim to be a 'normative actor' in the Southern Mediterra... more In this book we have shown why the EU's claim to be a 'normative actor' in the Southern Mediterranean does not stand up to the evidence, and have explained how and why EU democracy promotion fails in the region. It fails because the EU promotes the wrong kind of democracy and the wrong strategies for economic growthwrong both in the sense that these approaches do not work in this context, and in the sense that they are not what people want. This double failure highlights a paradox of EU democracy promotion: while nominally an emancipatory endeavour, in practice it undermines those very emancipatory transitions to democracy and to inclusive development which it claims to pursue. In detailing these failures, we have compared conceptions of gender, democracy, and human rights. The limits of EU policy, both in theory and in practice, match up precisely with the areas which SMCs citizens consider priorities and in which they wish to see both their own governments and the EU intervene. It is this mismatchshown in detail in the contrast between the first and second halves of the bookand the failure to address it seriously which continue to erode the EU's reputation in the region and continue to constrain the effectiveness of its policies. The 'gap' between the EU's image of itself and of what people in the region want on the one hand, and populations' actual desires on the other explains negative perceptions of the EU, why the Union's 'normative power' and its regional influence are undermined, and how the EU's own narratives make regional populations 'the Other', open them up to narrowly-conceived securitisation, and thus legitimising the EU's interventions to 'normalise' them. This gap has serious consequences, not only as an obstacle to achieving the EU's own objectives in the region as well as people's own preferences, but also inasmuch as it sustains the structural tensions which continue to drive instability, insecurity and migration in the region. The book began by tracing the evolution of the EU's self-image as a normative power, what it sees as good and successful in its own creation which should be exported as the model of society to which others should aspire. Our analysis showed that while the EC/EU's history has been driven by regional economic integration and Keynesian macroeconomics, its contemporary narrative about achieving peace and prosperity in post-WWII Europe draws heavily on narrowly conceived, procedural 'democratic values'eschewing socioeconomic rights and social justiceand on development driven by market liberalisation. This construction of the EU's own identity has several consequences, one of which is the 'culturalisation' of democracy andconsequentlyof its promotion. With this shift, democracy becomes more about the presence or absence of 'fundamental values'those very same values which are set out in the Lisbon Treaty, which also
This chapter provides a bridge between the critical policy analysis offered in the first half of ... more This chapter provides a bridge between the critical policy analysis offered in the first half of the book and the analysis of public opinion survey data in the second half. Comparing before and after the Uprisings, it does three things. First, it examines the changing political context within which the EU is delivering the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in the Southern Mediterranean (SM). Secondly, it considers how the mechanisms and tools of delivery changed in practice after the Uprisings, specifically considering the EU’s claims to innovative changes. Thirdly, it examines the EU’s practices in delivering democracy and ‘money, markets and mobility’. It concludes by arguing that there is little evidence of innovative changes of the EU practices in delivering the ENP in the SM after the Uprisings, that it has continued to support authoritarian regimes and that there is little evidence that the people of Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) are benefitting from the ENP.
As the world's economic and political centre of gravity moves increasingly towards East and S... more As the world's economic and political centre of gravity moves increasingly towards East and South Asia, we can expect a number of countries in these regions to devote more attention to the Middle East. The relations between East and South Asia and the Middle East have significantly expanded as a result of the global rise of Asian economic powers, particularly China, India, Japan and South Korea. Not only oil but also trade, investment, infrastructure, and tourism is the name of the business with the MENA region. Beyond energy and economic interests, questions arise about the potential geopolitical dimension of these evolving ties. What are the strategic implications of the projection of Asian countries in an unstable, fragmented and volatile region? How do they interact with each other and with other international players? Last but not least, will the Covid-19 pandemic be a game changer in (re)shaping relations in the future?
Over the last few years, Turkey seems to have embraced the East again. Ankara's closer relati... more Over the last few years, Turkey seems to have embraced the East again. Ankara's closer relations with Eurasian countries go hand in hand with the global shift eastwards, towards the ever-growing and most dynamic region in the world. It is therefore the result of an increasing differentiation of Turkey's foreign relations, driven by strategic, economic and energy interests. Stronger ties with Eurasian countries, i.e. Russia and China, are also the litmus test for the ups and downs in relations with Washington and Brussels. While Ankara still retains strong ties with the West, it is laying the groundwork to further widen its interests to the East. This report aims to analyse the multi-faceted aspects of Ankara's Eurasian shift, highlighting the domestic drivers of Turkey's "Eurasianism", the interests at stake, the areas of cooperation and competition, and last but not least the implications for the EU.
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Papers by Valeritalbot Talbot