Activity picked up markedly in the EU area last year; growth was estimated to have been 2.6 per c... more Activity picked up markedly in the EU area last year; growth was estimated to have been 2.6 per cent com-pared with 1.8 per cent recorded in 1996. However the aggregate movement masks some significant diver-gences in economic performance. Growth was relatively ...
Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 2001
The views expressed represent the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of... more The views expressed represent the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The article was prepared while the authors were affiliated with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London. We are grateful to the Leverhulme Trust, who funded the research, and to Ray Barrell and three anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Direct correspondence should be addressed to Julian Morgan.
This paper was written while Karsten Kohn was working at the European Central Bank. Views express... more This paper was written while Karsten Kohn was working at the European Central Bank. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank, the European System of Central Banks, or the KfW Bankengruppe. We thank participants of the EAM seminar at the European Central Bank (November 2006) and of the WDN workshop in Frankfurt (February 2007) for fruitful discussions and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. All errors are, of course, our sole responsibility.
ABSTRACT This paper explores the gains from combining expert forecasts from the ECB Survey of Pro... more ABSTRACT This paper explores the gains from combining expert forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis encompasses combinations based on principal components and trimmed means, performance-based weighting, and least squares estimates of optimal weights, as well as Bayesian shrinkage. For GDP growth and the unemployment rate, only few of the individual forecast combination schemes outperform the simple equally weighted average forecast in a pseudo-out-of-sample analysis, while there is stronger evidence of improvement over this benchmark for the inflation rate. Nonetheless, when we account for the effect of multiple model comparisons through White’s reality check, the results caution against any assumption that the improvements identified would persist in the future.
Labour market reform has become a central policy issue for many European countries, and there are... more Labour market reform has become a central policy issue for many European countries, and there are lessons to learn for the further development of the New Deal in the UK. We discuss reforms in Denmark and the Netherlands, and look at their implication for ...
Activity picked up markedly in the EU area last year; growth was estimated to have been 2.6 per c... more Activity picked up markedly in the EU area last year; growth was estimated to have been 2.6 per cent com-pared with 1.8 per cent recorded in 1996. However the aggregate movement masks some significant diver-gences in economic performance. Growth was relatively ...
Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 2001
The views expressed represent the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of... more The views expressed represent the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The article was prepared while the authors were affiliated with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London. We are grateful to the Leverhulme Trust, who funded the research, and to Ray Barrell and three anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Direct correspondence should be addressed to Julian Morgan.
This paper was written while Karsten Kohn was working at the European Central Bank. Views express... more This paper was written while Karsten Kohn was working at the European Central Bank. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank, the European System of Central Banks, or the KfW Bankengruppe. We thank participants of the EAM seminar at the European Central Bank (November 2006) and of the WDN workshop in Frankfurt (February 2007) for fruitful discussions and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. All errors are, of course, our sole responsibility.
ABSTRACT This paper explores the gains from combining expert forecasts from the ECB Survey of Pro... more ABSTRACT This paper explores the gains from combining expert forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis encompasses combinations based on principal components and trimmed means, performance-based weighting, and least squares estimates of optimal weights, as well as Bayesian shrinkage. For GDP growth and the unemployment rate, only few of the individual forecast combination schemes outperform the simple equally weighted average forecast in a pseudo-out-of-sample analysis, while there is stronger evidence of improvement over this benchmark for the inflation rate. Nonetheless, when we account for the effect of multiple model comparisons through White’s reality check, the results caution against any assumption that the improvements identified would persist in the future.
Labour market reform has become a central policy issue for many European countries, and there are... more Labour market reform has become a central policy issue for many European countries, and there are lessons to learn for the further development of the New Deal in the UK. We discuss reforms in Denmark and the Netherlands, and look at their implication for ...
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