Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least ... more Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa's poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth countryand local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.
Vietnam is likely to be among the hardest hit countries by climate change, which may threaten the... more Vietnam is likely to be among the hardest hit countries by climate change, which may threaten the recent progress it has made in accelerating agricultural growth and poverty reduction. To examine how agriculture and the rural poor may be affected by a changing climate, this paper measures Vietnamese farmers’ adaptation behavior in terms of adjustments to the production portfolio and
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around... more There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable
ABSTRACT Droughts in Syria have occurred during almost every second year over the past half centu... more ABSTRACT Droughts in Syria have occurred during almost every second year over the past half century, and may become even more frequent in the future. This paper assesses the economic and social implications of droughts using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Syria. Results show that growth in economic output (GDP) during drought years can be close to one percentage point lower compared to nondrought years. Food security and the poor are hard hit by droughts, mainly through the loss of capital, incomes and higher food/feed prices. Poverty levels increase by about 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points during an average drought and stay above “non-drought levels” even when the drought is over. Poor farm households are hardest hit, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households. Actions for improving the resilience of the poor should focus on agriculture, non-farm employment opportunities and social safety nets.
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around... more There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit.
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around... more There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector an...
Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising ... more Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two
... To quantify the impacts of climate change and droughts on the Syrian economy, this report lin... more ... To quantify the impacts of climate change and droughts on the Syrian economy, this report links results from crop models with global ... The challenge of modeling climate change effects arises in the wide-ranging nature of processes involved in the working of markets, ecosystems ...
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of... more The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of 15 agricultural research centers that receive principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of ...
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of... more The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of 15 agricultural research centers that receive principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of ...
As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for fo... more As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be
Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least ... more Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa's poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth countryand local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.
Vietnam is likely to be among the hardest hit countries by climate change, which may threaten the... more Vietnam is likely to be among the hardest hit countries by climate change, which may threaten the recent progress it has made in accelerating agricultural growth and poverty reduction. To examine how agriculture and the rural poor may be affected by a changing climate, this paper measures Vietnamese farmers’ adaptation behavior in terms of adjustments to the production portfolio and
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around... more There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable
ABSTRACT Droughts in Syria have occurred during almost every second year over the past half centu... more ABSTRACT Droughts in Syria have occurred during almost every second year over the past half century, and may become even more frequent in the future. This paper assesses the economic and social implications of droughts using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Syria. Results show that growth in economic output (GDP) during drought years can be close to one percentage point lower compared to nondrought years. Food security and the poor are hard hit by droughts, mainly through the loss of capital, incomes and higher food/feed prices. Poverty levels increase by about 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points during an average drought and stay above “non-drought levels” even when the drought is over. Poor farm households are hardest hit, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households. Actions for improving the resilience of the poor should focus on agriculture, non-farm employment opportunities and social safety nets.
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around... more There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit.
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around... more There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector an...
Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising ... more Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two
... To quantify the impacts of climate change and droughts on the Syrian economy, this report lin... more ... To quantify the impacts of climate change and droughts on the Syrian economy, this report links results from crop models with global ... The challenge of modeling climate change effects arises in the wide-ranging nature of processes involved in the working of markets, ecosystems ...
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of... more The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of 15 agricultural research centers that receive principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of ...
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of... more The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was established in 1975. IFPRI is one of 15 agricultural research centers that receive principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of ...
As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for fo... more As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be
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Papers by Tingju Zhu