T h o ma s C. B r o wn a n d P a me l a F r o e mk e You may order additional copies of this publ... more T h o ma s C. B r o wn a n d P a me l a F r o e mk e You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Please specify the publication title and series number.
Wildfire suppression expenditures on national forest land have increased over the last 35 years, ... more Wildfire suppression expenditures on national forest land have increased over the last 35 years, exceeding US $l billion in 2000 and 2002. These increases in expenditure have been attributed, in part, to a century of aggressive wildfire suppression, resulting in a buildup of fuel on the nation's forests. The efficiency of the current incentive structure faced by Forest Service fire managers is analyzed. An alternative incentive structure is presented that encourages fire managers, as they work to limit wildfire damages, to contain costs and consider the beneficial effects of wildfire.
Water Resources Research Center. The University of Arizona, 1988
No publication date on item; letter in files dated January 11, 1988 indicates article was submitt... more No publication date on item; letter in files dated January 11, 1988 indicates article was submitted for inclusion in the USCID proceedings.
The conterminous United States includes national forests and grasslands that provide ecological, ... more The conterminous United States includes national forests and grasslands that provide ecological, social, economic, recreational, and aesthetic services. Future climate change can alter long-term hydroclimatic conditions of national forests and grasslands and lead to negative consequences. This study characterizes shifts in hydroclimatology and basin characteristics of US National Forests (NFs) and National Grasslands (NGs) in response to climate change over the 21st century under the DRY, MIDDLE, and WET climate models with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. Climatic projections for three climate models ranging from the driest to wettest conditions were obtained from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset. Then, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to model hydrological responses of the selected future climates. Changes in regional hydroclimatic conditions of NFs and NGs were assessed by the magnitude and di...
Results from paired comparison experiments suggest that as respondents progress through a sequenc... more Results from paired comparison experiments suggest that as respondents progress through a sequence of binary choices they become more consistent, apparently fine-tuning their preferences. Consistency may be indicated by the variance of the estimated valuation distribution measured by the error term in the random utility model. A significant reduction in the variance is shown to be consistent with a model of preference uncertainty allowing for preference learning. Respondents become more adept at discriminating among items as they gain experience considering and comparing them, suggesting that methods allowing for such experience may obtain more well-founded values.
Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indi... more Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indicates that, due to improving efficiency in water use, expected increases in population and economic activity do not by themselves pose a serious threat of large-scale water shortages. However, climate change can increase water demand and decrease water supply to the extent that, barring major adaptation efforts, substantial future water shortages are likely, especially in the larger Southwest. Because further global temperature increases are probably unavoidable, adaptation will be essential in the areas of greatest increase in projected probability of shortage.
Two implementations of the complementary relationship hypothesis for regional evapotranspiration,... more Two implementations of the complementary relationship hypothesis for regional evapotranspiration, the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) model and the Advection‐Aridity (AA) model, are evaluated against independent estimates of regional evapotranspiration derived from long‐term, large‐scale water balances (1962–1988) for 120 minimally impacted basins in the conterminous United States. The CRAE model overestimates annual evapotranspiration by 2.5% of mean annual precipitation, and the AA model underestimates annual evapotranspiration by 10.6% of precipitation. Generally, increasing humidity leads to decreasing absolute errors for both models, and increasing aridity leads to increasing overestimation by the CRAE model and underestimation by the AA model, with the exception of high, arid basins, where the AA model overestimates evapotranspiration. Overall, the results indicate that the advective portion of the AA model must be recalibrated before it may be used ...
Key Points water withdrawal efficiency is improving in most sectors Population growth alone will ... more Key Points water withdrawal efficiency is improving in most sectors Population growth alone will not greatly increase future withdrawals Future climate change is likely to significantly increase withdrawals
We empirically investigate the effect of the payment mechanism on contingent values by asking a w... more We empirically investigate the effect of the payment mechanism on contingent values by asking a willingness-to-pay question with one of three different payment mechanisms: individual contribution, contribution with provision point, and referendum. We nd statistical evidence of more af rmative responses in the referendum treatment relative to the individual contribution treatment, some weak statistical evidence of more af rmative responses in the referendum treatment relative to the provision point treatment, and no statistical evidence of more af rmative responses in the provision point treatment relative to the individual contribution treatment. The relative credibility of the three payment mechanisms is also examined.
Stated preference methods such as contingent valuation and choice modeling are subject to various... more Stated preference methods such as contingent valuation and choice modeling are subject to various biases that may lead to differences between actual and hypothetical willingness to pay. Cheap talk, follow-up certainty scales, and dissonance minimization are three techniques for reducing this hypothetical bias. Cheap talk and certainty scales have received considerable attention in the literature, but dissonance minimization has not previously been experimentally tested. Using a four-way split sample design involving over 600 subjects, results from an actual referendum on provision of a quasi-public good were compared with three similar but contingent referenda employing the three bias-reducing techniques. Hypothetical bias was again present. Certainty scales, when properly calibrated, and dissonance minimization were found to be most effective in reducing the bias.
Water quality is a continuing national concern, in part because the containment of pollution from... more Water quality is a continuing national concern, in part because the containment of pollution from nonpoint (diffuse) sources remains a challenge. We examine the spatial distribution of nonpoint-source threats to water quality. On the basis of comprehensive data sets for a series of watershed stressors, the relative risk of water-quality impairment was estimated for the over 15,000 fifth-level watersheds in the contiguous United States. A broad division emerged at about the 100th meridian, with eastern areas typically under higher stress than western areas, reflecting the generally higher housing, road, and agriculture densities and higher levels of atmospheric deposition in the eastern division. Recent trends in some stressors are encouraging, but the prospect of further substantial population growth indicates continued pressure on water quality, suggesting that renewed focus on controlling nonpoint-source pollution will be needed if the goals of the Clean Water Act are to be attained.
Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response ti... more Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response time, and preference refinement
Population growth and climate change will combine to pose substantial challenges for water manage... more Population growth and climate change will combine to pose substantial challenges for water management in the United States. Projections of water supply and demand over the 21st century show that in the absence of further adaptation efforts, serious water shortages are likely in some regions. Continued improvements in water use efficiency are likely but will be insufficient to avoid future shortages. Some adaptation measures that have been effective in the past, most importantly large additions to reservoir storage, have little promise. Other major adaptations commonly used in the past, especially instream flow removals and groundwater mining, can substantially lower shortages but have serious external costs. If those costs are to be avoided, transfers from irrigated agriculture probably will be needed and could be substantial. Plain Language Summary This study estimates the likelihood of water shortages over the remainder of the 21st century in 204 watersheds covering the contiguous United States. The estimates are based on monthly projections of water demand and renewable water supply in light of population growth and climate change, taking into account water storage and transbasin diversion capacities. The study then examines several possible adaptations to projected shortages, including water withdrawal efficiency improvements, reservoir storage enhancements, demand reductions, instream flow reductions, and groundwater depletions. Results provide a broad measure of the relative efficacy of the adaptation measures and show when and where the measures are likely to be helpful.
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2008
Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapo... more Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953-1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection-Aridity model and the Zhang model. The evapotranspiration models were calibrated using precipitation and runoff data for 655 hydrologically undisturbed basins, and then tested using estimates of natural runoff for the 18 water resource regions (WRR) of the 48 contiguous states. The final water supply coverage reflects a mixture of outputs from the two evapotranspiration models. Political, administrative, and land cover boundaries were mapped over the coverage of mean annual water supply. Across the entire study area, we find that 53% of the water supply originates on forested land, which covers only 29% of the surface area, and that 24% originates on federal lands, including 18% on national forests and grasslands alone. Forests and federal lands are even more important in the West (the 11 western contiguous states), where 65% of the water supply originates on forested land and 66% on federal lands, with national forests and grasslands contributing 51%.
Rating scales provide an efficient and widely used means of recording judgments. This paper revie... more Rating scales provide an efficient and widely used means of recording judgments. This paper reviews scaling issues within the context of a psychometric model of the rating process and describes several methods of scaling rating data. The scaling procedures include the simple mean, standardized values, scale values based on Thurstone's Law of Categorical Judgment, and regression-based values. The scaling methods are compared in terms of the assumptions they require about the rating process and the information they provide about the underlying psychological dimension being assessed.
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2015
We review past trading experiments and present 11 new experiments designed to show how the tradin... more We review past trading experiments and present 11 new experiments designed to show how the trading rate responds to alterations of the experimental procedure. In agreement with earlier studies, results show that if the trade decision is converted to one resembling a choice between goods the exchange asymmetry disappears, but otherwise the asymmetry is remarkably robust. Results also indicate that when trading is public herding can occur, which may have caused some of the more extreme examples of the exchange asymmetry, and that some of the lack of trade may result from preference indifference. Nevertheless, some form of status quo bias, which may consist of a combination of loss aversion, gain attraction, regret avoidance, and dislike of trading, and which may be enhanced by indifference between the goods offered, probably remains as an important influence on the trading rate.
Environmental losses, each described along with its cause. were judged for seriousness. Four type... more Environmental losses, each described along with its cause. were judged for seriousness. Four types of cause were studied: illegal behavior, carelessness, economic and population growth, and natural events. Identical environmental losses (e.g., of a herd of elk or a large stand of trees) were considered most serious when caused by illegal behavior or carelessness, and only slightly less serious when caused by growth. Losses due to these three types of human causes were considered much more serious than when the same losses were caused by natural events. Naturally caused environmental losses were probably considered least serious because they do not provoke the sense of violation or responsibility commonly associated with human-caused losses, and because naturally caused losses are often considered unavoidable and in the natural scheme of things. 0 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 'what a lost resource is worth must be distinguished from how much compensation should be paid by the person who caused the loss. Compensation, if paid by the injurer, may include a penaltyespecially if the action was avoidable-to be added to the cost of restoration. The penalty may both penalize the injurer and help to compensate the injured for the sense of violation they suffered (see Radin. 1993). 0272-49441s-see front matter 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
The method of paired comparison is introduced as a means to estimate willingness to accept. The t... more The method of paired comparison is introduced as a means to estimate willingness to accept. The technique is adapted from psychology and involves having the individual make choices between two alternative gains. To estimate monetary willingness to accept (WTA) the individual is asked whether he or she would prefer to receive $X or a particular good. This question is repeated
T h o ma s C. B r o wn a n d P a me l a F r o e mk e You may order additional copies of this publ... more T h o ma s C. B r o wn a n d P a me l a F r o e mk e You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Please specify the publication title and series number.
Wildfire suppression expenditures on national forest land have increased over the last 35 years, ... more Wildfire suppression expenditures on national forest land have increased over the last 35 years, exceeding US $l billion in 2000 and 2002. These increases in expenditure have been attributed, in part, to a century of aggressive wildfire suppression, resulting in a buildup of fuel on the nation's forests. The efficiency of the current incentive structure faced by Forest Service fire managers is analyzed. An alternative incentive structure is presented that encourages fire managers, as they work to limit wildfire damages, to contain costs and consider the beneficial effects of wildfire.
Water Resources Research Center. The University of Arizona, 1988
No publication date on item; letter in files dated January 11, 1988 indicates article was submitt... more No publication date on item; letter in files dated January 11, 1988 indicates article was submitted for inclusion in the USCID proceedings.
The conterminous United States includes national forests and grasslands that provide ecological, ... more The conterminous United States includes national forests and grasslands that provide ecological, social, economic, recreational, and aesthetic services. Future climate change can alter long-term hydroclimatic conditions of national forests and grasslands and lead to negative consequences. This study characterizes shifts in hydroclimatology and basin characteristics of US National Forests (NFs) and National Grasslands (NGs) in response to climate change over the 21st century under the DRY, MIDDLE, and WET climate models with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. Climatic projections for three climate models ranging from the driest to wettest conditions were obtained from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset. Then, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to model hydrological responses of the selected future climates. Changes in regional hydroclimatic conditions of NFs and NGs were assessed by the magnitude and di...
Results from paired comparison experiments suggest that as respondents progress through a sequenc... more Results from paired comparison experiments suggest that as respondents progress through a sequence of binary choices they become more consistent, apparently fine-tuning their preferences. Consistency may be indicated by the variance of the estimated valuation distribution measured by the error term in the random utility model. A significant reduction in the variance is shown to be consistent with a model of preference uncertainty allowing for preference learning. Respondents become more adept at discriminating among items as they gain experience considering and comparing them, suggesting that methods allowing for such experience may obtain more well-founded values.
Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indi... more Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indicates that, due to improving efficiency in water use, expected increases in population and economic activity do not by themselves pose a serious threat of large-scale water shortages. However, climate change can increase water demand and decrease water supply to the extent that, barring major adaptation efforts, substantial future water shortages are likely, especially in the larger Southwest. Because further global temperature increases are probably unavoidable, adaptation will be essential in the areas of greatest increase in projected probability of shortage.
Two implementations of the complementary relationship hypothesis for regional evapotranspiration,... more Two implementations of the complementary relationship hypothesis for regional evapotranspiration, the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) model and the Advection‐Aridity (AA) model, are evaluated against independent estimates of regional evapotranspiration derived from long‐term, large‐scale water balances (1962–1988) for 120 minimally impacted basins in the conterminous United States. The CRAE model overestimates annual evapotranspiration by 2.5% of mean annual precipitation, and the AA model underestimates annual evapotranspiration by 10.6% of precipitation. Generally, increasing humidity leads to decreasing absolute errors for both models, and increasing aridity leads to increasing overestimation by the CRAE model and underestimation by the AA model, with the exception of high, arid basins, where the AA model overestimates evapotranspiration. Overall, the results indicate that the advective portion of the AA model must be recalibrated before it may be used ...
Key Points water withdrawal efficiency is improving in most sectors Population growth alone will ... more Key Points water withdrawal efficiency is improving in most sectors Population growth alone will not greatly increase future withdrawals Future climate change is likely to significantly increase withdrawals
We empirically investigate the effect of the payment mechanism on contingent values by asking a w... more We empirically investigate the effect of the payment mechanism on contingent values by asking a willingness-to-pay question with one of three different payment mechanisms: individual contribution, contribution with provision point, and referendum. We nd statistical evidence of more af rmative responses in the referendum treatment relative to the individual contribution treatment, some weak statistical evidence of more af rmative responses in the referendum treatment relative to the provision point treatment, and no statistical evidence of more af rmative responses in the provision point treatment relative to the individual contribution treatment. The relative credibility of the three payment mechanisms is also examined.
Stated preference methods such as contingent valuation and choice modeling are subject to various... more Stated preference methods such as contingent valuation and choice modeling are subject to various biases that may lead to differences between actual and hypothetical willingness to pay. Cheap talk, follow-up certainty scales, and dissonance minimization are three techniques for reducing this hypothetical bias. Cheap talk and certainty scales have received considerable attention in the literature, but dissonance minimization has not previously been experimentally tested. Using a four-way split sample design involving over 600 subjects, results from an actual referendum on provision of a quasi-public good were compared with three similar but contingent referenda employing the three bias-reducing techniques. Hypothetical bias was again present. Certainty scales, when properly calibrated, and dissonance minimization were found to be most effective in reducing the bias.
Water quality is a continuing national concern, in part because the containment of pollution from... more Water quality is a continuing national concern, in part because the containment of pollution from nonpoint (diffuse) sources remains a challenge. We examine the spatial distribution of nonpoint-source threats to water quality. On the basis of comprehensive data sets for a series of watershed stressors, the relative risk of water-quality impairment was estimated for the over 15,000 fifth-level watersheds in the contiguous United States. A broad division emerged at about the 100th meridian, with eastern areas typically under higher stress than western areas, reflecting the generally higher housing, road, and agriculture densities and higher levels of atmospheric deposition in the eastern division. Recent trends in some stressors are encouraging, but the prospect of further substantial population growth indicates continued pressure on water quality, suggesting that renewed focus on controlling nonpoint-source pollution will be needed if the goals of the Clean Water Act are to be attained.
Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response ti... more Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response time, and preference refinement
Population growth and climate change will combine to pose substantial challenges for water manage... more Population growth and climate change will combine to pose substantial challenges for water management in the United States. Projections of water supply and demand over the 21st century show that in the absence of further adaptation efforts, serious water shortages are likely in some regions. Continued improvements in water use efficiency are likely but will be insufficient to avoid future shortages. Some adaptation measures that have been effective in the past, most importantly large additions to reservoir storage, have little promise. Other major adaptations commonly used in the past, especially instream flow removals and groundwater mining, can substantially lower shortages but have serious external costs. If those costs are to be avoided, transfers from irrigated agriculture probably will be needed and could be substantial. Plain Language Summary This study estimates the likelihood of water shortages over the remainder of the 21st century in 204 watersheds covering the contiguous United States. The estimates are based on monthly projections of water demand and renewable water supply in light of population growth and climate change, taking into account water storage and transbasin diversion capacities. The study then examines several possible adaptations to projected shortages, including water withdrawal efficiency improvements, reservoir storage enhancements, demand reductions, instream flow reductions, and groundwater depletions. Results provide a broad measure of the relative efficacy of the adaptation measures and show when and where the measures are likely to be helpful.
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2008
Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapo... more Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953-1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection-Aridity model and the Zhang model. The evapotranspiration models were calibrated using precipitation and runoff data for 655 hydrologically undisturbed basins, and then tested using estimates of natural runoff for the 18 water resource regions (WRR) of the 48 contiguous states. The final water supply coverage reflects a mixture of outputs from the two evapotranspiration models. Political, administrative, and land cover boundaries were mapped over the coverage of mean annual water supply. Across the entire study area, we find that 53% of the water supply originates on forested land, which covers only 29% of the surface area, and that 24% originates on federal lands, including 18% on national forests and grasslands alone. Forests and federal lands are even more important in the West (the 11 western contiguous states), where 65% of the water supply originates on forested land and 66% on federal lands, with national forests and grasslands contributing 51%.
Rating scales provide an efficient and widely used means of recording judgments. This paper revie... more Rating scales provide an efficient and widely used means of recording judgments. This paper reviews scaling issues within the context of a psychometric model of the rating process and describes several methods of scaling rating data. The scaling procedures include the simple mean, standardized values, scale values based on Thurstone's Law of Categorical Judgment, and regression-based values. The scaling methods are compared in terms of the assumptions they require about the rating process and the information they provide about the underlying psychological dimension being assessed.
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2015
We review past trading experiments and present 11 new experiments designed to show how the tradin... more We review past trading experiments and present 11 new experiments designed to show how the trading rate responds to alterations of the experimental procedure. In agreement with earlier studies, results show that if the trade decision is converted to one resembling a choice between goods the exchange asymmetry disappears, but otherwise the asymmetry is remarkably robust. Results also indicate that when trading is public herding can occur, which may have caused some of the more extreme examples of the exchange asymmetry, and that some of the lack of trade may result from preference indifference. Nevertheless, some form of status quo bias, which may consist of a combination of loss aversion, gain attraction, regret avoidance, and dislike of trading, and which may be enhanced by indifference between the goods offered, probably remains as an important influence on the trading rate.
Environmental losses, each described along with its cause. were judged for seriousness. Four type... more Environmental losses, each described along with its cause. were judged for seriousness. Four types of cause were studied: illegal behavior, carelessness, economic and population growth, and natural events. Identical environmental losses (e.g., of a herd of elk or a large stand of trees) were considered most serious when caused by illegal behavior or carelessness, and only slightly less serious when caused by growth. Losses due to these three types of human causes were considered much more serious than when the same losses were caused by natural events. Naturally caused environmental losses were probably considered least serious because they do not provoke the sense of violation or responsibility commonly associated with human-caused losses, and because naturally caused losses are often considered unavoidable and in the natural scheme of things. 0 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 'what a lost resource is worth must be distinguished from how much compensation should be paid by the person who caused the loss. Compensation, if paid by the injurer, may include a penaltyespecially if the action was avoidable-to be added to the cost of restoration. The penalty may both penalize the injurer and help to compensate the injured for the sense of violation they suffered (see Radin. 1993). 0272-49441s-see front matter 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
The method of paired comparison is introduced as a means to estimate willingness to accept. The t... more The method of paired comparison is introduced as a means to estimate willingness to accept. The technique is adapted from psychology and involves having the individual make choices between two alternative gains. To estimate monetary willingness to accept (WTA) the individual is asked whether he or she would prefer to receive $X or a particular good. This question is repeated
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