Papers by Steffen Noleppa
The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease... more The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease and the benefits and cost of health intervention by integrating public health analysis and economics. The approach developed in the paper is applied to food-borne diarrhea in Rwanda. The results suggest that both prevention and treatment are socially very profitable. However, simple treatments such as Oral Rehydration Therapy have a higher social rate of return than prevention.
The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease... more The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease and the benefits and cost of health intervention by integrating public health analysis and economics. The approach developed in the paper is applied to food-borne diarrhea in Rwanda. The results suggest that simple treatments such as Oral Rehydration Therapy have a higher social
In this article we discuss the determinants of international agricultural market prices and prese... more In this article we discuss the determinants of international agricultural market prices and present the results of a partial equilibrium model of international agricultural trade with interconnected markets. The results of the model suggest that the long term trend of declining real agricultural commodity prices has been reversed and that the EU will become a net importer of grains, as it was the case before the late 1970s. EU net imports of oilseeds will increase by 135%. Significant increases in productivity would be required in order to maintain the present level of self-sufficiency on crop markets in the EU. Moreover, we quantify the impact of changes in the price of energy and biofuel production on world prices. A key result in this regard is that the price of energy has become a major driving force of agricultural world market prices. For instance, in the period of analysis (2003/05 -2015/17) the price of wheat can be expected to increase by about twenty percent, provided that the price of oil remains at the 2003/05 level. With a price increase to $100 per barrel towards 2015/17 the price of wheat will go up by about 70 percent.
The economic, political and climatic conditions in which farmers around the world have to make th... more The economic, political and climatic conditions in which farmers around the world have to make their production and investment decisions are changing dramatically. This study analyses the driving forces of changes in agricultural world markets and their implications for European Union agriculture for the time period 2003/05 - 2013/15. The impacts on European Union agriculture are quantified using of a
ABSTRACT The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agri... more ABSTRACT The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act on recipient households, and assess land, labor, risk management, and capital market conditions that can lead to links between decoupled payments and production choices. Each study contributes a different perspective to understanding the response of U.S. farm households and production to decoupled income transfers. Some use new microdata on farm households collected through USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), initiated in 1996, and its predecessor survey. These data are used to compare household and producer behavior and outcomes before and after the FAIR Act. Other studies use applied or conceptual models to characterize the impact of introducing decoupled payments. Collectively, the chapters represent an early stage in the empirical analysis of decoupled payments. The studies address many aspects of the payments' household impacts but remaining issues call for additional analysis. As the analytical paradigm changes with the evolution of farm programs, the development of appropriate data and models will improve our understanding of farm program impacts on the behavior and well-being of U.S. farm households, and the agricultural sector.
Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science, 1999
In der Diskussion um die Weiterentwicklung der EU‐Agrarpolitik steht die Agenda 2000 im Mittelpun... more In der Diskussion um die Weiterentwicklung der EU‐Agrarpolitik steht die Agenda 2000 im Mittelpunkt. In diesem Beitrag wird der Brüsseler Reformvorschlag eingeordnet und bewertet. Die Agenda 2000 setzt die Agrarreform von 1992 fort. Sie führt in die richtige Richtung, aber sie greift aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher, verteilungspolitischer und umweltpolitischer Sicht zu kurz. Aus Sicht der Landwirtschaft in den neuen Bundesländern wird es in der Regel nicht zu einer befürchteten Einkommenssenkung kommen, falls freilich die in der Agenda 2000 vorgesehenen Prämien in voller Höhe gezahlt werden und falls die derzeit diskutierte Degression in der Prämienzahlung nicht umgesetzt wird. Auch nach der Agenda 2000 wird es weitere Reformen der EU‐Agrarpolitik geben müssen. Schritte in die richtige Richtung wären eine weitere Integration der EU‐Agrarwirtschaft in die Weltagrarmärkte, die Einführung einer einheitlichen Flächenprämie und besser noch die Einführung einkommensabhängiger befristeter direkter Einkommensübertragungen.The Agenda 2000 is the main subject in the current discussion on the future of the Common Agricultural Policy. In this contribution we discuss and assess the reform proposal. The Agenda 2000 may point into the “right” direction, but from an economic, distributional, and ecological point of view the proposal is not satisfactory. From the viewpoint of agriculture in the New Bundesländer the Agenda 2000 will probably not result in income reductions—if the compensation payments are paid to the full extent and if degressive payments are not imposed. There will be a need for further reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy after the Agenda 2000. Proper perspectives would be a further integration of the European Union into world agriculture, the introduction of uniform land subsidies, and, even better than this, the introduction of income‐dependent direct payments which are limited over time.
In this article we discuss the impacts of future energy prices and biofuel production levels on a... more In this article we discuss the impacts of future energy prices and biofuel production levels on agricultural market prices, production and trade and present the results of a partial equilibrium model of international agricultural trade with interconnected markets. The results of the model suggest that the long term trend of declining real agricultural commodity prices has been reversed. A key result in this regard is that the price of energy has become a major driving force of agricultural world market prices. For instance, in the period of analysis until 2016/18 the price of wheat can be expected to increase by about 16 percent, 35 percent and 91 percent depending on an oil price of US$ 45, US$ 70 and US$ 102 per barrel, respectively.
This article focuses on the social rate of return to plant breeding investment in Germany between... more This article focuses on the social rate of return to plant breeding investment in Germany between 1980-2000. Starting point of the analysis is the development of total factor productivity which is decomposed into the effects of factor input and research investment. Information on investment in plant breeding have been obtained via questionnaires sent to both private plant breeding companies and public research organizations. The empirical results suggest significant underinvestment in German plant breeding research, as the calculated social rate of return is in the range of 16 to 28%. Key words agricultural research; plant breeding investment; social rate of return Zusammenfassung Gegenstand der Untersuchung ist die gesamtwirtschaftliche Profitabilität der Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung in Deutschland. Ausgangspunkt der Analyse ist die Entwicklung der totalen Faktorproduktivität in Deutschland. Diese wurde mit Hilfe eines Indexzahlenansatzes dekomponiert in die Einflüsse von Faktoreinsatzveränderungen und Investitionen in die Forschung. Informationen über die Investitionen in die Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung wurden durch Befragungen privater Pflanzenzüchtungsunternehmen und Einrichtungen der öffentlichen Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung gewonnen. Die empirische Analyse für Investitionen im Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2000 ergab eine jährliche gesamtwirtschaftliche Verzinsung von 16 % bis 28 %. Damit liegt die gesamtwirtschaftliche Verzinsung deutlich über den Opportunitätskosten der Forschungsaufwendungen. Aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht wird daher in Deutschland in die Pflanzenzüchtung unterinvestiert. Schlüsselwörter Agrarforschung; Pflanzenzüchtung; gesamtwirtschaftliche Verzinsung
The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease... more The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease and the benefits and cost of health intervention by integrating public health analysis and economics. The approach developed in the paper is applied to food-borne diarrhea in Rwanda. The results suggest that both prevention and treatment are socially very profitable. However, simple treatments such as Oral Rehydration Therapy have a higher social rate of return than prevention.
This article focuses on the social rate of return to plant breeding investment in Germany between... more This article focuses on the social rate of return to plant breeding investment in Germany between 1980-2000. Starting point of the analysis is the development of total factor productivity which is decomposed into the effects of factor input and research investment. Information on investment in plant breeding have been obtained via questionnaires sent to both private plant breeding companies and public research organizations. The empirical results suggest significant underinvestment in German plant breeding research, as the calculated social rate of return is in the range of 16 to 28%. Key words agricultural research; plant breeding investment; social rate of return Zusammenfassung Gegenstand der Untersuchung ist die gesamtwirtschaftliche Profitabilität der Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung in Deutschland. Ausgangspunkt der Analyse ist die Entwicklung der totalen Faktorproduktivität in Deutschland. Diese wurde mit Hilfe eines Indexzahlenansatzes dekomponiert in die Einflüsse von Faktoreinsatzveränderungen und Investitionen in die Forschung. Informationen über die Investitionen in die Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung wurden durch Befragungen privater Pflanzenzüchtungsunternehmen und Einrichtungen der öffentlichen Pflanzenzüchtungsforschung gewonnen. Die empirische Analyse für Investitionen im Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2000 ergab eine jährliche gesamtwirtschaftliche Verzinsung von 16 % bis 28 %. Damit liegt die gesamtwirtschaftliche Verzinsung deutlich über den Opportunitätskosten der Forschungsaufwendungen. Aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht wird daher in Deutschland in die Pflanzenzüchtung unterinvestiert. Schlüsselwörter Agrarforschung; Pflanzenzüchtung; gesamtwirtschaftliche Verzinsung
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union has been in a process of reform since ... more The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union has been in a process of reform since the early 1990s. As a result of reforms, agricultural market regulations have become more liberal and direct payments have been introduced which are to a large extent decoupled from production. In this paper, we analyze the effects of the direct payments to farmers on inequality of profits in German agriculture. For this purpose, we decompose measures of absolute and relative inequality in total farm profits into the partial effects of the direct payments and all other profit determinants. Key results of the analysis are that the system of direct payments under the New CAP accounts for about one third of the observed inequality in family farms and for almost two thirds of inequality in the large incorporated farms.
Uploads
Papers by Steffen Noleppa