1. Energy systems and environmental policy in East Asia 2. Introduction to the modelling in this ... more 1. Energy systems and environmental policy in East Asia 2. Introduction to the modelling in this book Part 1: The Power Choices and the Sustainability of Energy Usage in East Asia 3. Modeling the Power Sectors in East Asia: The choice of Power Sources 4. Modeling the power sector in East Asia: Economic and Environmental impacts of the choices of power sources 5. The environmental and macroeconomic implications of phasing out nuclear power in Japan - E3MG vs CGE modeling results 6. Energy efficiency policies in East Asia: Macroeconomic implications and interactions with existing climate policies 7. Energy structure and energy security under climate mitigation scenarios in East Asia Part 2: Environmental Tax Reform for Environmental and Economic Balance 8. The double dividend of an environmental tax reform in East Asian economies 9. The macroeconomic impacts of ETR: A comparison of model results 10. Environmental taxes and fiscal deficits 11. The distributional effects of low carbon policies in Japan and South Korea 12. Human Capital and Environmental Taxation in Japan and South Korea 13. Competitiveness issues and carbon leakage 14. The role for border tax adjustments Part 3: Trade and Interdependency of Economy and Environment in East Asia 15. Measuring both production-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions of different countries based on the multi-region input-output model 16. An empirical study on the interdependency of energy consumption and CO2 emissions under the international IO structure of the Asia-Pacific region 17. Emissions from international maritime transportation in East Asia 18. An environmental assessment of FTA in East Asian regions using the CGE modeling approach 19. An environmental assessment of East Asian trade agreements using E3ME-Asia 20. Conclusion
This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan ... more This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.
This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan ... more This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.
In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in t... more In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transitions by defining four scenarios based on policies that aim to reduce emissions from transport. For each country we find that an integrated approach of tax incentives, subsidies, regulations (fuel economy efficiency), kick-start programs and biofuel programs yield the most significant emission reductions because, when combined, they accelerate effectively the diffusion of electric vehicles in the region.
The main objective of our research is to use a model of technology uptake to study the diffusion ... more The main objective of our research is to use a model of technology uptake to study the diffusion of renewable and efficient heating technologies in East Asia. Under which conditions and behavioural assumptions could policies induce a sufficiently fast transition towards renewable heating, and how long would it take? To this end, we performed a series of scenario simulations for different policy instruments in East Asian countries, considering household diversity and bounded rationality of household decisions. In our policy scenarios, we find that an (increasing) fuel tax of 50-200€/tCO2 would be required for reducing direct emissions by around 80% (relative to 2014). Meanwhile, policy mixes are projected to be more effective than a carbon tax on its own for driving the market of low-carbon technologies, involving lower net emissions and reduced cost burdens for households.
1. Energy systems and environmental policy in East Asia 2. Introduction to the modelling in this ... more 1. Energy systems and environmental policy in East Asia 2. Introduction to the modelling in this book Part 1: The Power Choices and the Sustainability of Energy Usage in East Asia 3. Modeling the Power Sectors in East Asia: The choice of Power Sources 4. Modeling the power sector in East Asia: Economic and Environmental impacts of the choices of power sources 5. The environmental and macroeconomic implications of phasing out nuclear power in Japan - E3MG vs CGE modeling results 6. Energy efficiency policies in East Asia: Macroeconomic implications and interactions with existing climate policies 7. Energy structure and energy security under climate mitigation scenarios in East Asia Part 2: Environmental Tax Reform for Environmental and Economic Balance 8. The double dividend of an environmental tax reform in East Asian economies 9. The macroeconomic impacts of ETR: A comparison of model results 10. Environmental taxes and fiscal deficits 11. The distributional effects of low carbon policies in Japan and South Korea 12. Human Capital and Environmental Taxation in Japan and South Korea 13. Competitiveness issues and carbon leakage 14. The role for border tax adjustments Part 3: Trade and Interdependency of Economy and Environment in East Asia 15. Measuring both production-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions of different countries based on the multi-region input-output model 16. An empirical study on the interdependency of energy consumption and CO2 emissions under the international IO structure of the Asia-Pacific region 17. Emissions from international maritime transportation in East Asia 18. An environmental assessment of FTA in East Asian regions using the CGE modeling approach 19. An environmental assessment of East Asian trade agreements using E3ME-Asia 20. Conclusion
This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan ... more This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.
This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan ... more This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.
In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in t... more In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transitions by defining four scenarios based on policies that aim to reduce emissions from transport. For each country we find that an integrated approach of tax incentives, subsidies, regulations (fuel economy efficiency), kick-start programs and biofuel programs yield the most significant emission reductions because, when combined, they accelerate effectively the diffusion of electric vehicles in the region.
The main objective of our research is to use a model of technology uptake to study the diffusion ... more The main objective of our research is to use a model of technology uptake to study the diffusion of renewable and efficient heating technologies in East Asia. Under which conditions and behavioural assumptions could policies induce a sufficiently fast transition towards renewable heating, and how long would it take? To this end, we performed a series of scenario simulations for different policy instruments in East Asian countries, considering household diversity and bounded rationality of household decisions. In our policy scenarios, we find that an (increasing) fuel tax of 50-200€/tCO2 would be required for reducing direct emissions by around 80% (relative to 2014). Meanwhile, policy mixes are projected to be more effective than a carbon tax on its own for driving the market of low-carbon technologies, involving lower net emissions and reduced cost burdens for households.
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