Papers by Troy Smith, PhD
International Journal of Cybersecurity Intelligence & Cybercrime International Journal of Cybersecurity Intelligence & Cybercrime , 2024
This article introduces the Integrated Model of Cybercrime Dynamics (IMCD), a novel theoretical f... more This article introduces the Integrated Model of Cybercrime Dynamics (IMCD), a novel theoretical framework for examining the complex interplay between individual characteristics, online behavior, environmental factors, and outcomes related to cybercrime offending and victimization. The model incorporates key concepts from existing theories, empirical evidence, and interdisciplinary perspectives to provide a comprehensive framework. In contrast to traditional criminological theories, the proposed model integrates concepts from multiple disciplines to offer a holistic framework that captures the complexity of cybercrime and specifically caters for the uniqueness of cyberspace. The article will provide a detailed overview of the conceptual model, its theoretical underpinnings drawing from criminology and victimology, empirical support for the key components and relationships. The article will conclude by discussing the significance of the IMCD for advancing cybercrime theory, guiding future research, informing prevention/intervention efforts, and ultimately combating the growing challenge of cybercrime in the digital age.
Telematics and Informatics Reports, 2023
This research article examines the interplay between coolness and maladaptive social media use am... more This research article examines the interplay between coolness and maladaptive social media use among Jamaican users. In addition, it explores profiles of addiction-like symptoms among social media users in Jamaica and identifies the prevalence of maladaptive use. A total of 180 participants from the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Jamaica, completed a self-administered survey that assessed engagement, maladaptive social media use, coolness, and preference for online social interaction. The Bergen's Social Media Addiction Scale was utilized to measure maladaptive social media use, while the inner and outer cool questionnaire and the Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale assessed coolness and preference for online social interaction, respectively. Latent profile analysis was employed to identify latent subgroups based on maladaptive behavior patterns, as well as perceptions of coolness. The results revealed two latent subgroups based on coolness perception (high perceived coolness and average perceived coolness) and three latent subgroups based on maladaptive behavior (high-risk, low-risk, and no risk). An empirical cutpoint for the BSMAS was found to be 18, which suggested a 27.8% prevalence of maladaptive social media use in Jamaica. Gender differences were observed in maladaptive use and preference for online social interaction, with females exhibiting higher levels of both. The findings also indicated significant relationships between engagement levels, coolness dimensions, and maladaptive social media use risk profiles. Overall, this study sheds light on the complex relationship between coolness, social media use, and addiction-like symptoms, providing insights into the Jamaican context.
Caribbean Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 2023
This study draws on past studies on problematic social media use (PSMU) to assess trends and dedu... more This study draws on past studies on problematic social media use (PSMU) to assess trends and deduce predictive factors associated with problematic Facebook use (PFU) and problematic TikTok use (PTU) amongst university students in Trinidad and Tobago using Multivariate Multiple Linear Regression. The study fills the gaps in the extant literature associated with TikTok and limited research outside of North American and Europe. In addition, this is one pf the first study to empirically compare the prevalence and predictors of problematic use between two social media platforms. Furthermore, the study uses a comprehensive list of predictors based on an examination of the literature: five dimensions of gratification (motives of social media use), psychological variables (self-esteem and loneliness), Big Five personality traits, demographics (sex and age) and level of engagement (duration and frequency of use). The study found that PFU and PTU had a prevalence of 0.57% and 3.70% respectively. PFU and PTU use were both correlated to level of engagement, self-presentation, and age. The additional predictors of content gratification, process gratification, social gratification, technical gratification, extraversion, loneliness, and sex were identified for PTU. Additionally, the findings suggest that females have higher levels of engagement on social media and problematic use scores.
Caribbean Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 2023
The study took a human-centric approach to exploring cybercrime by comparing the utility of the R... more The study took a human-centric approach to exploring cybercrime by comparing the utility of the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) between cyber-dependent (hacking and malware infection) and cyber-enabled (online harassment and unsolicited content) crime victimization. Data were collected using a self-administered survey (N = 200) disseminated using chain referral sampling to Facebook users residing in The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. The data were analysed using Naïve Bayes, a supervised machine learning algorithm to develop classification models. This research found that the RAT showed greater utility with cyber-dependent crimes than cyberenabled crimes. Voluntary and involuntary personal information disclosure through social media increased the likelihood of being a target of hacking, online harassment, and unsolicited content. Deviant online activities such as peer-to-peer downloads and watching pornography increased the risk of cyber-dependent crime victimization. Personal guardianship measures such as knowledge of cybercrime victimization and setting accounts to private are associated with cyber-dependent crimes. The study concluded that a difference in aetiology exists between cyber-dependent and cyber-enabled crime in relation to victimization suggesting that all cybercrimes cannot be explained equally with general criminological theories. This implies that a typological approach to the study of cybercrime victimization, prevention strategies and potentially legal frameworks is necessary.
International Criminology, 2022
The study assessed the changes in murder counts and patterns under COVID-19 conditions in The Rep... more The study assessed the changes in murder counts and patterns under COVID-19 conditions in The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Initial research indicates that crime rates and patterns have changed under the COVID-19 pandemic possibly because of government implemented restrictions. The specific impact of these responses on murder has not been examined. To fill this gap in the literature the study utilized several interrupted time-series analyses to assess the change(s) in murder trends and their possible relationship to restrictions in movement associated with COVID-19. Overall, murder decreased while under COVID-19 conditions. However, the change was not consistent across different classifications of murder, with some increasing while others continued a downward trend that started before COVID-19 restrictions. The findings suggest that the change in murder trends under COVID-19 was not based on a linear relationship with restrictions in movement. Rather the results suggest that the data contains nonlinear components, which are associated with an initial but inconsistent change in murder counts among different classifications of murder. Which was followed by a phase of diminishing return on the effect of restriction on movement on the murder count. Further, in support of the findings the forecasting of murder was found to be better achieved by an algorithm which supports continuous non-linear functions (Artificial Neural Networks) when compared to a linear approach (Bayesian Structural Time-Series).
Facebook addiction user risk profiles among college students: Identification of subclasses of addictive behaviors characterized by demographics and covariates using latent profile analysis
Telematics and Informatics Reports, 2022
Previous studies and theoretical assumptions suggest a heterogeneity among users at risk of Faceb... more Previous studies and theoretical assumptions suggest a heterogeneity among users at risk of Facebook addiction, similar to other behavioral addictions. These studies, which took a variable-centered approach showed varied relationships between psychological factors, personality traits and motives with addiction indicators. This study aimed to take a person-centered approach that focused on investigating profiles of Facebook addiction indicators and the associated level and importance of Griffiths’ six core components of addiction as measured by the Bergen Facebook addiction scale. Further, the predictive power associated with loneliness, self-esteem, the Big Five personality traits and gratifications sought related to the identification of Facebook addiction risk level were also assessed. Data were collected from 611 college students using a self-administered online questionnaire. The data were analyzed using latent profile analysis (LPA), ANOVAs, pairwise comparisons and decision trees. The LPA identified three latent classes of Facebook behavior, namely ‘high-risk’, ‘low risk’ and ‘no risk’. The prevalence of ‘high-risk’ users was 8.5%, which was predominantly females (88%). All six of the core components of addiction were found to contribute to classification of users within the three classes. Additionally, sex, age, agreeableness, loneliness and all five forms of gratification sought had a significant positive relation to Facebook addiction. While self-esteem had a significant negative relationship with Facebook addiction. Further, according to the decision tree analyses and pairwise comparisons of the classes the criteria of tolerance and mood modification, and the covariates of loneliness and self-esteem showed the highest predictive powers. The study concluded that tolerance and mood modification are the most relevant criteria in the diagnosis of Facebook addiction. Further, emotional support and escapism are likely critical underlying factors in conversion to Facebook addiction.
An exploratory analysis of the relationship of problematic Facebook use with loneliness and self-esteem: the mediating roles of extraversion and self-presentation
Current Psychology, 2022
Studies indicate that loneliness and self-esteem are predictive factors of problematic social med... more Studies indicate that loneliness and self-esteem are predictive factors of problematic social media use. Further, it is proposed that self-presentation and extraversion may explain individual differences in online activity and problematic social media use. The present study confirms the relationship of loneliness and self-esteem with problematic Facebook use and investigates the hypothesis that these psychological factors may be linked to problematic Facebook use through their association with self-presentation and extraversion. The sample of university students consisted of 477 Facebook users, 64% females, aged 18-64. Social media usage intensity was assessed by collecting passive data on the total time spent and the number of sessions on Facebook per day for the last 6 months. The psychological factors, personality, motives and problematic Facebook use were assessed via self-report measures. Results showed that the relationship of loneliness and self-esteem with problematic Facebook use was significantly positive and negative respectively. The relationship between self-esteem and problematic Facebook use was found to be inconsistently mediated by both self-presentation and extraversion, while loneliness was partially mediated by self-presentation only. The total effect of loneliness and self-esteem remained positive and negative respectively, although extraversion and self-presentation had a suppressing effect on the relationship between self-esteem and problematic Facebook use. Further, the prevalence of 'at-risk' Facebook users was found to be 6.0%. It was also determined that the usage intensity of 'at-risk' users was significantly different from other Facebook users. These results highlight the existence of different patterns of associations linking psychological factors, usage intensity and problematic Facebook use.
Needs affordance as a key factor in likelihood of problematic social media use: Validation, latent Profile analysis and comparison of TikTok and Facebook problematic use measures
Addictive Behaviors, 2022
Despite increasing concerns of maladaptive cognitive responses associated with social media, esti... more Despite increasing concerns of maladaptive cognitive responses associated with social media, estimates of its prevalence are lacking in the literature. Further, existing studies have disproportionately focused on Facebook, while ignoring the penetration of TikTok and concerns of associated maladaptive behaviors. This study aims to 1) validate scale measures for problematic Facebook and TikTok use (PFU and PTTU) 2) comparatively assess the underlying cognitive pathways of the PFU and PTTU among a sample of university students, 3) determine the cut-off score of the PTTU assessment scale using Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) and 4) evaluate the contribution of specific criteria in the diagnosis of PTTU. The scales used to assess PFU and PTTU were found to have appropriate psychometric properties. The scores between the PFU and PTTU scales were found to be strongly associated, however, the relationship was stronger in the group of Facebook users than in the group of TikTok users. Further, the manifestation of problematic use was not consistent between TikTok and Facebook. Loneliness was positively associated with both PFU and PTTU, while self-esteem was negatively associated with PFU only. The optimal cut-off score of the PTTU scale was determined to be 21, giving 8.7% as the estimated prevalence of PTTU. The criteria with the highest predictive power in the diagnosis of addiction among university students were “withdrawal” and “relapse”. The study concludes that while the underlying addiction pathways are similar between platforms the manifestation of maladaptive behavior and the drivers for usage intensity and problematic use are unique.
Caribbean Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 2022
The study examined the changes in online routines, cybercrime rates and the applicability of the ... more The study examined the changes in online routines, cybercrime rates and the applicability of the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The RAT proposes that, upon the spatiotemporal convergence of an offender and target, a crime event results from an offender's rational but subjective assessment of a target's suitability and level of guardianship. The study used cybercrime victimisation data collected with a self-administered survey pre-and post-COVID-19 (N = 149 Facebook users of varying ages, ethnicities, and geographic locations within The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago). The change in online routine, cybercrime rate and their relationship to COVID-19 were assessed using Bayesian t-tests,-tests and Propensity Score Matching. Additionally, pre-and post-COVID-19 classification models were compared to identify any change in the utility of the RAT. The study found that there was a general increase in online routine activities particularly those resulting in increased time spent online and accessing pornographic content. Further, the predictors of victimisation changed, and the predictive accuracy of the classification model decreased. However, it was determined that cybercrime victimisation rates decreased post-COVID-19 and that the change had a causal dependence on the implementation of guardianship measures. The study concluded that increased use of technical guardianship measures such as the use of protective software and implementation of browser security protocols led to the decreased rate of victimisation, particularly as cybercrime shifted from interpersonal crimes to techno-centric cybercrimes. However, the study was limited due to the use of chain referral sampling and the fact that a control group could not be used because this was a global 'treatment'. The findings suggest that increased focus by policymakers on targeting hardening and removal measures through the implementation of technical guardianship and cybersafety awareness and education can help reduce cybercrime victimisation. This study highlights the need for further research into motivations for protective online behaviour and the role of exogenous shocks in changing crime and behavioural patterns.
International Journal of Cybersecurity Intelligence and Cybercrime, 2021
Cybertechnology has brought benefits to the Caribbean in the form of new regional economic and so... more Cybertechnology has brought benefits to the Caribbean in the form of new regional economic and social growth. In the last years, Caribbean countries have also become attractive targets for cybercrime due to increased economic success and online presence with a low level of cyber resilience. This study examines the online-related activities that affect cybercrime victimization by using the Routine Activity Theory (RAT). The present study seeks to identify activities that contribute to different forms of cybercrime victimization and develop risk models for these crimes, particularly the understudied cyber-dependent crimes of Hacking and Malware. It also aims to explore if there are similarities or differences in factors leading to victimization, which correlate to the classification of crimes as either cyber-dependent or cyber-enabled. The data analysis suggests that there is significant applicability for RAT in explaining Online Harassment victimization, while the usability of the RAT for predicting Malware victimization proved to be minimal, with only two significant variables being identified, with both being associated with Capable Guardianship.
American Intelligence Journal, 2016
Strategy is the direction and use made of force and the threat of force for the purposes of polic... more Strategy is the direction and use made of force and the threat of force for the purposes of policy as decided by politics. Strategy requires decision-makers to make assumptions, critically assess these assumptions, then based on this develop the ends, ways and means triangle. This process undoubtedly requires making choices/decision based on hopefully critical analysis. This means strategy is the product of decisions i.e. it can only be as good as the decision-making process from which it is derived. Therefore, the ability to make well-informed and rational decisions is essential for the formation of any good strategy. The article examines how cognitive errors and groupthink can lead to a systematic deviation from what is considered to be a standard of rationality or good judgment resulting in flawed strategies.
American Intelligence Journal, 2015
The premise behind cyberterrorism as with cybercrimes is that nations’ dependence on technology w... more The premise behind cyberterrorism as with cybercrimes is that nations’ dependence on technology will be exploited to cause harm to the economy, infrastructure, and potentially loss of life. However, there is considerable debate over the legitimacy of this threat. This paper examines the advantages of cyberspace to terrorists and how it can be utilized to support their activities. The practicality of cyber-terrorism is also examined as it relates to; achievability, availability of resources and potential for physical damage. The author concludes that cyber attacks and cyber-terrorism will potentially pose a threat as terrorist become increasingly skilled in the use of cyberattacks, however, cyber attacks are currently less effective and desirable than physical attacks, making the latter more of a salient threat than that of cyberterrorism. The real danger of terrorist use of cyberspace lies in the use of cyberspace as both a terrorist tactic and a force multiplier.
American Intelligence Journal, 2017
Rouse him, and learn the principle of his activity or inactivity. Force him to reveal himself, so... more Rouse him, and learn the principle of his activity or inactivity. Force him to reveal himself, so as to find out his vulnerable spots.-Sun Tzu SUMMARY T here is a cyber-electromagnetic contest between nation-states and the Islamic State, which involves gaining, maintaining, and exploiting technological advantage. The expansion of the Islamic State (ISIS) over the last two years has included capabilities to inflict damage over the Internet and manipulate the resources of cyberspace for recruitment and the spread of propaganda. ISIS has employed a cyber-strategy that utilizes asymmetric warfare and adaptive tactics based on the Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) model. In this article the overarching strategy proposed by the author is analysed by comparing it to the tenets of Social Learning Theory and terrorist strategies presented by Kidd and Walter (2006): intimidation strategy, provocation strategy, and outbidding strategy. To effectively challenge ISIS in the cyber-electromagnetic contest requires analysis of its strategies and tactics to determine effective ways to mitigate the threat and to develop a base for anticipatory intelligence.
This paper categorise cybercrime based on the attacker's motivation for committing them, drawing... more This paper categorise cybercrime based on the attacker's motivation for committing them, drawing from a survey of the literature in the area of cybercrime. The paper begins by addressing the scope of cybercrime, noting its prevalence and effects on the US economy. The presents four broad categories and nine sub categories for cybercrime based on the motivations of the perpetrator. The goal of the paper is to inform future studies of cybercrime on the motives for cybercrime and how they are pivotal in understanding the modus operandi of cybercriminals.
Technology now forms an essential part of every country's critical infrastructure and is therefor... more Technology now forms an essential part of every country's critical infrastructure and is therefore, a major national security concern. This concern combined with the complexity of cyberspace and political agendas, has caused a misrepresentation of the cyber-threat. Although the motivation of cyber-attacks has only been associated with criminal behavior, espionage and even terrorism; current Administrations and the media would have the country believe that a cyber-war is upon us. This paper demonstrates that cyber-war is certainly a misnomer. To date there has been an inability to acquire any substantial, irrefutable evidence of cyber-warfare; only speculations based on historical information, rumors, propaganda and misinterpretation or misrepresentation of facts. Current international legal framework and interpretations indicate that what has been termed cyber-warfare does not match the criteria for war. While the dispute over the term cyber-war and what it represents will definitely continue, there is consensus on the reality of cyber-weapons and cyber-attacks.
Policymakers often use analogical reasoning when making foreign policy decisions. To utilize anal... more Policymakers often use analogical reasoning when making foreign policy decisions. To utilize analogical reasoning to avoid repeating the mistakes of failed operations, there must be a comprehensive understanding of historical events. In this article, analyses the failed attempts to oust Saddam Hussein from power, which cost the United States over USD 100 million and a substantial amount of embarrassment. Flawed planning, assessment and mismatching of strategy and operations with foreign policy are identified as determining factors in the failure of operations against Saddam Hussein.
Given the many previous successes of covert action, it remains an indispensable option for policy... more Given the many previous successes of covert action, it remains an indispensable option for policymakers. However, policymakers must be selective in the use of covert action in the fulfillment of foreign policy strategy. In order to fulfill foreign policy strategy, the expected outcome and the method of covert action used must align with the core goals that define the national interest. This article looks at key consideration that policymakers must take into account when deciding if and to what degree to use covert action.
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Papers by Troy Smith, PhD